Week 6
10/11/02
Got an email from Jarrod last week saying we're taking too many
"away" teams. He could be right, so we'll watch that,
although as it turned out 9 of 14 away teams covered in week 5.
One thing I do know for sure is the next time I back two away
teams going into Florida in September or October, someone drop
me a line saying, "you idiot, they can't take the humidity." Living
in a northerly locale, and having never visited Florida, sometimes
this small but important fact is overlooked.
Shouldering those disappointing picks of the Patriots and Eagles last week, not to mention the Rams (I told Dave to watch the homer picks), we only went 7-7. Shaking the crystal ball a little harder this week to pull out of our .500 funk.
Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Houston Texans (1-3)
The Bills have been firing on all cylinders on offense. That was, until the Raiders exposed Drew Bledsoe's inability to throw on the run last week, resulting in him tossing 3 INT. The Texans could use this to their advantage, but overall, expect the Bills to put up plenty of points here with Eric Moulds the main receiving threat this week and Travis Henry having another big game. The Texans are going to get David Carr killed if they can't protect him better. The Bills DL has played well to start the season, and after a tough game last week, they should be able to strut a little, sacking Carr repeatedly. Betting the Bills defense even picks off their first pass of the season this week.
Cleveland Browns (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1)
Browns enter this one on a down note after losing to the Ravens at home last week, listening to the crowd boo an injured Tim Couch and then losing Kelly Holcomb to a fractured leg. Plus, they are banged up in the secondary, 1st round pick William Green has shown no ability to run the ball and it's hazardous to your QB's health if you can't run against Tampa Bay's defense. Look for the Bucs DL to get to Couch early and often in this game, pressuring the beleaguered Browns signalcaller into mistakes. Tampa Bay's offense hasn't come together yet but they have more than enough firepower to pull this one out and this may be the game to get themselves on track.
Miami Dolphins (4-1) at Denver Broncos (4-1)
Should be a good game featuring two 4-1 teams looking to stay on and near the top of their respective divisions. Remember in the Dolphins wild-card game a couple years ago when Lamar Smith had some crazy amount of rushing attempts, and then looked slow and beat up the following week? Ricky Williams ran 36 times last week, and the Broncos are very good against the run. Here's thinking Williams will have an off week this week, which spells trouble for the Dolphins. The Broncos offense seems to have settled on a starting RB, with rookie Clinton Portis. Portis ran 20 times for just over 100 yards last week. The Dolphins defense is good, but when a team can throw a good running and passing game at you, they have an advantage by being able to keep the defense off balance. Although both teams come off big wins last week, more of a letdown is expected of the Dolphins who have to travel to Denver.
New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
The Saints can't seem to get any respect but I guess that's what happens when you lose to the Lions. They entered the season as an unknown and have played very well, overcoming injuries and suspensions to post a 4-1 record. Deuce McAllister is the real deal at tailback, Aaron Brooks has looked good after regressing in the second half of last season and their wide receivers are explosive. Unfortunately, Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth are banged up and while Horn will play, Stallworth will sit this one out. Nonetheless, their offense should produce enough points to pull this one out, although the Redskins defense appears to finally be figuring out Marvin Lewis' system. Rookie QB Patrick Ramsey looked strong coming off the bench against the Titans, but the Titans have made everybody look strong so far this year. For the Redskins to win, they will need to use Stephen Davis' running to control the clock and hope to make some big plays.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-5)
Really not too crazy about this line with the Steelers having to win by a TD, but, confidence in the Bengals to make a game of this is not strong either. Although the division is weak, the Steelers can ill afford to fall to 1-4. They should come out motivated with a strong effort, especially with all of this talk lately about Jon Kitna's "tell-all" game last season against the Steelers running up 400+ passing yards against them. Yes, Kitna did do that, and he is back under center for the Bengals, but although the offense looked improved a week ago, the Colts defense is not much of a measuring stick. The Steelers defense has not been great either, but they should be able to pressure Kitna somewhat, and the Bengal WR are mistake prone. The Steelers offense looked improved last week with Tommy Maddox starting and the running game performed well. Expect the Bus to keep on rolling in this one as the Bengals are doing poorly defending the run, and appear to be down another LB, Brian Simmons. Bengals traditionally play the Steelers tough, but we'll back the team with more talent and the team that we expect to have more desire for the win.
Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
The Cowboys enter this one on a down note with Quincy Carter playing the role of goat last week after he missed a wide open Antonio Bryant for a sure-fire, lead-changing 4th quarter TD against the Giants. However, he has shown resilience and an ability to bounce back so the disappointment shouldn't affect his play this week. Carolina has lost games their last two after winning three to start the season. Neither team has impressed offensively and while the Panthers have better defensive statistics, they have played a weaker schedule thus far. The winner of this one will likely be the team who runs the ball more effectively and creates a couple of big plays. The Dallas offensive line is banged up and Carolina has created more turnovers this season, so take the Panthers and the points.
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
Not too often does a decision come down to the presence of one player being on the field or not, but in the Ravens case, it does when that player is Ray Lewis. Lewis has been amazing this season, in particular the last 2 games as the Ravens upset the Broncos and Browns. He is a true leader and this defense needs him on the field. Unfortunately, it looks like Lewis could sit after suffering a sprained shoulder in week 5. The Colts are trudging along, looking good but not great. The offense is clicking like it should, but the team let the Bengals back in the game last week. Jamal Lewis is running hard and will be a tough test for the Colts. Expect him to get 100 yards on the ground. However, as long as the Colts play their disciplined zone defense, which prevents big plays, they should keep the Ravens from posting too many points. Peyton Manning and his skilled offensive weapons should get some big plays on the Ravens secondary, much like the Browns did late last week, and put up sufficient points for the cover. But, if Lewis plays near 100% (Ray, not Jamal), it could be a whole new ball game.
Detroit Lions (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-4)
This one has to qualify as one of the dogs of the week, with each team looking unimpressive so far. The Lions may have a bit of an edge momentum wise with a new starting QB who has produced a win and shown he's a bit of a gunslinger. However, the Lions have huge holes on defense and are banged up at WR on offense. Likewise, the Vikings defense can't stop anybody mostly because they have no pass rush to speak of. This looks like a good over bet with each team giving up 35 points a game. The Lions look like a good bet with the points, but Randy Moss has to break out at some point and it should happen this week. If you like defensive football, don't watch this game.
Green Bay Packers (4-1) at New England Patriots (3-2)
Pretty sure the Patriots will be glad to be home this week, after losing 2 straight in San Diego and Miami. Stopping the run still looks like a problem for them, but it did improve last week considering it took the Dolphins almost 40:00 minutes of time of possession and 36 carries by Ricky Williams to get him over 100 rushing yards. Ahman Green poses another tough test for them this week. The Patriots had better figure out a way to control the clock a little more, perhaps by finding some more run-pass balance on offense, but it will be awfully tempting to throw, throw, throw again this week because the Packers secondary and DL is banged up to no end. Both starting DE are out, 1 starting S is out and 2 other starters in the secondary are questionable. It's a good thing the Packers have Brett Favre to rely on, who is getting very comfortable with his receivers. Should be interesting watching Terry Glenn's return to Foxboro. I would expect there will be a little added oomph in the Patriot tackles every time Glenn has the ball. This pick is being made with the expectation Bill Belichick calls the right defense to adequately slow down the Pack. The Patriots offense should have success and hold up their end of the bargain.
Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at New York Giants (3-2)
The Falcons enter this one having played better than expected but with only one win to show for it and without Michael Vick, who will not play. The Giants have also played better than expected, particularly on offense where they have moved the ball consistently but have yet to translate yards into points. The Falcons linebackers and defensive backfield match up well against the Giants, however they are without Ray Buchanan which leaves Juran Bolden to cover Ike Hilliard. The key will be whether they can generate a pass rush without blitzing. With Doug Johnson starting, they will try to keep this a low scoring contest. Look for T.J. Duckett to possibly start over Warrick Dunn, who has been ineffective and has yet to contribute big plays on a consistent basis. The Falcons will pound Duckett into the middle of the Giants defense in an effort to get first downs and eat up the clock. The Giants defense has played well this season but they are banged up in the defensive secondary and may be without Will Peterson. However, it shouldn't be a factor if Vick doesn't play.
|
Pick: GIANTS |
Best Odds: Off the board at the time the lines were checked.
|
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)
Two of the more surprising teams compared to preseason expectations, the Titans have looked absolutely horrible while the Jaguars are playing pretty well. Even without Fred Taylor and Mark Brunell having big games, the Jags defense stepped up to slow the Donovan McNabb led Eagles to virtually nothing for 50:00 minutes last week. The Florida heat and humidity helped the home team, and they won't have that advantage here, but coach Tom Coughlin is not one to burn a chance to bury a division rival. The Titans have 2 huge problems which feed off one another. They can't run very well to control the tempo, and they can't stop the pass to keep the game close and continue trying to establish the run. The Jags are just a much better team right now, so even in Tennessee they are the play.
Oakland Raiders (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-5)
The unbeaten Raiders head to St. Louis this week to face the winless Rams in what was expected to be one of the better games of Week 6. Instead, the prognosis has to be that, barring turnovers and poor special teams play, the Raiders win in a cakewalk, even if Charlie Garner, spectacular this season, doesn't play. The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders on offense and special teams, and their defense has played well, save their performance last week against a surprisingly good Buffalo offense. They currently appear to be the front runners to be the AFC's Super Bowl participant. On the other hand, the Rams appeared lifeless during last week's blowout loss against divisional rival San Francisco and it is hard to predict they will come out fired up for this one. Take the Raiders.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-1)
Tough call here. The Chiefs offense has been good (Priest Holmes has been great), although they settled for more FG than they can afford to last week against the Jets, and the defense is very bad. The Chiefs made inexperienced Chad Pennington look good, and it could have been much worse for the Chiefs had Pennington connected on a couple passes where he led his receivers out of bounds. The Chargers defense has been solid, but are we perhaps seeing some chinks in the armor? They did only play the Bengals, Texans and Cardinals to start the season which has helped their numbers. Now Marcellus Wiley is out, Junior Seau is questionable and Rodney Harrison isn't 100% either. On offense, if opponents shut down LaDainian Tomlinson, as the Broncos did last week pretty well, then the Chargers are not near the powerhouse they looked winning their first 4 games. Can the Chiefs shut him down? No. This one could be a barn burner though forcing Drew Brees to make some plays. He does it against this defense.
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-3)
San Francisco enters this contest on a high note after beating division rival St. Louis for the first time in seven outings. They could be ripe for a letdown but it would seem unlikely with the game on Monday night. The 49ers offense finally got untracked against the Rams and could be in line for a big game against the Seahawks. They should have no trouble running the ball and wide receiver Terrell Owens has to bust out soon. Look for it to happen against a suspect Seahawks secondary. For the Seahawks to win, Shaun Alexander must have a big game and they must play mistake free football, avoiding turnovers and giving up big plays. Unfortunately the San Francisco defense has become adept at forcing turnovers and the tackle duo of Dana Stubblefield and Bryant Young should force Seattle to concentrate their runs outside the tackles, where Alexander is less effective.
Always make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds.
Best odds listed above were checked at Intertops,
Olympic
Sports,  SportingbetUSA
and  SportsInteraction.
These opinions are posted for entertainment, recreational gambling
purposes only.
Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator
of Pro Football Analysis.com,
which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping
NFL football.
|
Picks We're Feeling Good About:
