Week 8
10/26/02
After a one week hiatus, the Crystal Ball is back up and running.
Look like some great matches to watch Sunday. If you like offense, Raiders-Chiefs
should be the ticket. If you like defense, try Steelers-Ravens. Here is
how we see all the games shaking out this week.
Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)
What is the over-under on this game, 60? Actually, it's only 56, but would 60 or 70+ really surprise anyone? The Raiders are down Charles Woodson and Phillip Buchanon, leaving Tory James and Terrance Shaw as the starting corners. That's not going to scare anyone, especially the Chiefs who are posting huge points every week. Similarly, the Raiders offense has taken a slight step back in recent weeks as Rich Gannon seems to be locking onto Jerry Rice, but they are still explosive. The Chiefs defense provides little in the way of resistance, so the Raiders offense should have a huge day. Call it first to 40 wins. Raiders two game slide looks like a genuine concern. Take the home dog to win outright, bringing every team in the AFC West to .500 or higher.
Chicago Bears (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
Disappointing Bears and Vikings teams square off this week in a key matchup for the Bears, who had legitimate Super Bowl expectations, but cannot afford to fall to 2-5 and expect to make the playoffs. At 1-5, the Vikings are out of it and are playing to ensure Mike Tice remains their coach in 2003. Vikings lost both games to the Bears last season and blew a week 1 contest this year against their division rivals. As usual, Randy Moss must play well for the Vikes to win. Metrodome doesn't seem to scare opponents anymore but neither do the Bears who have lost their last four, including last week's debacle against the Lions. Who's going to show up - Bears or Moss?
Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)
The battling QB cousins go at each other this week in an important NFC South matchup. Michael Vick returned with a vengeance last week in the Falcons 30-0 trampling of the Panthers, rushing for 91 yards and continuing his streak of games without an interception. However, the team lost T.J. Duckett to injury in that game and he won't play this week, forcing the team to rely on Warrick Dunn who has been less than impressive so far this season. The Falcons are only giving up 14 points a game, but gave up 37 to Green Bay in their only game against a good offense. The Saints are rolling along, with some commentators (not this one) now picking them to go the Super Bowl after last week's dramatic come from behind win over the 49ers. However, they failed to show up in Week 4 against the Lions, so be cautious of a similiar performance this week after last week's big win.
Cleveland Browns (3-4) at New York Jets (2-4)
After suffering through a horrible start to the season, Jets are on the rebound which started with them completely shutting down the Vikings last week. They have re-committed to the running game which is paying dividends by keeping defenses off balance. The Browns struggle stopping the run giving the Jets a nice advantage. The Jets biggest problem this year is stopping the run. No problem here, as the Browns biggest problem is running the ball. Not confident Tim Couch can get it done. Although Couch has a nice group of receivers, none have stepped up to be a consistent threat. Special teams and home field advantage: Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
Although both teams sit at .500, this game is for first place. Steelers have been slowly showing their 2001 form which led people to pick them as preseason favorites to go to the Super Bowl. The Ravens have been quite a surprise, playing solid defense with the offense not losing games for them. Kind of like the 2000 Ravens with Trent Dilfer at the helm? Many picked this team to finish in the cellar of the division, but the young guys plus Jamal Lewis are proving to be quite a formidable opponent. Ray Lewis and Jerome Bettis likely sit out this game (Lewis is a gametime decision), but each team has sufficient backups to fill in those spots. Call this one of the least confident calls of the day, but take the Steelers to prevail as they shut down Lewis forcing Chris Redman to the air more than he would like, and perhaps suffering a similar hurried and hit fate as Peyton Manning did this past Monday.
Detroit Lions (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Certainly the Bills are coming off a big win in Miami last week, which leaves concern for a letdown, but Gregg Williams will make sure the troops don't lose focus as they find themselves in the thick of the division title chase. The offense had a tough time last week against the Dolphins defense, so the Lions provide a nice rebound opportunity for Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds et al to post big stats once again. The Lions come off an upset home win against the Bears but really got a gift with a late penalty that negated a sack which would have sealed a Bears win. James Stewart was impressive, and could continue to be against the Bills Achilles' heal, their run defense. Overall though, the Bills at home should be too much for the Lions to compete in this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-4)
Bucs offense continues to disappoint, leaving their dominant defense to win games. It's not a pretty formula but is one that works and almost took them to the Super Bowl a few years ago. Rob Johnson subs in for an injured Brad Johnson this week so expect the Bucs to continue giving up sacks because Rob holds onto the ball even longer than Brad. Nonethless, Panthers are in a downward spiral, losing their last four after winning three to start the season. They may also start a backup this week, forced to give third-stringer Randy Fasani all the snaps in practice this week as Chris Weinke recovers from a concussion suffered in last week's game. Panthers offense is averaging 14 points a game and are forced to run due to a lack of options in the passing game, with Wesley Walls banged up and Muhsin Muhammad out. It's a lot of points for the Bucs to cover but their defense should provide some turnovers in Carolina territory helping them to cover the spread.
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)
No doubt about it, the Bengals have been absolutely horrible. Have they given up on their season? Have they given up on their coach? Maybe. Hard to tell how a team in such disarray will react after their bye week. The Titans had an easy time of the Jaguars before their bye week, finally getting Eddie George to have a good game, but that result is tainted due to Mark Brunell getting knocked out of the game so early. The Titans' own problems are still very real. Neither the defense nor the running game are very good, which are two aspects that they previously excelled at. This one could be a high scoring one. The Bengals just cannot be trusted to show up and play, so betting on them seems foolish. Back the Titans with Steve McNair, not George, being the key to victory.
Seattle Seahawks (1-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
It's going to be an emotional day in Dallas, as Emmitt Smith attempts to break Walter Payton's career rushing record. Going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league, Smith's chances of breaking the record this week looked promising until Jerry Jones and Dave Campo got together and named Chad Hutchinson the starting quarterback. After having Marshall Faulk run wild on them last week, look for the Seahawks to use eight or nine players in the box to stop the run, forcing Hutchinson to throw. Seahawks have a good chance to pull this one out provided Shaun Alexander comes to life. He looked lethargic last week against the Rams but so did the whole team coming off their disappointing Monday night loss to the 49ers. Nobody will admit it, but Mike Holmgren is now fighting for his job. For him to keep it, his team needs to beat teams like the Cowboys.
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
It's hard to believe but this game is a battle for first place in the NFC West. Both teams are 4-2 and are tied for first place in the division due to the Rams' struggles this season. Other than big win over the Rams, the 49ers have been unable to put teams away. Offense is now predicated on the team's ability to run and play solid defense due to their inability to get Terrell Owens the ball. Owens predicted 1,600 plus yards for himself this year but it hasn't happened as teams have been effective in double teaming him, forcing Jeff Garcia to throw to other options including J.J. Stokes, Tai Streets and Eric Johnson, none of which has been effective. Owens has yet to have a 100 yard receiving day. Cardinals have their own ineffective wideout in David Boston who can't seem to get open and drops the ball when he is open. The combination of Thomas Jones and Marcel Shipp have been effective running the ball, with the salary cap space eating offensive line finally creating some running room. Cardinals defense has played surprisingly well since giving up 31 points to Washington in Week 1, averaging 12.4 points against in their last five games.
Denver Broncos (5-2) at New England Patriots (3-3)
The Patriots couldn't have started the season off hotter, mostly putting to rest all the talk they were a Super Bowl fluke. Then, just as the critics that paid them no respect were finally coming around, the Pats go right in the tank and drop three straight. Those losses were against three tough teams though, and now they have had an extra week to figure out what has been going wrong. The Broncos have been playing solid defense and continue to sport many weapons on offense. This should be a very tough game, but given the Broncos are coming off an emotional overtime win in Kansas City, and the Patriots cannot afford to fall further behind the idle Dolphins and surging Bills, the Pats should have more motivation to push this one into the win column for them.
Houston Texans (1-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
The Jaguars have dropped two games in a row but the loss of Mark Brunell early in the Titans game led to that loss and the team played well against a tough Ravens team. Fred Taylor is in top form and the defense is playing pretty well considering all of the player losses they've suffered in recent years. The Texans are showing flashes during Sportscenter highlights, with David Carr tosses bombs to Corey Bradford, but other than the occasional big play, they can't muster much in the way of offense. The defense is ok but still a long way from helping them compete against decent teams. The Browns have been only average but dropped the Texans by 17 last week. The same is expected by the Jaguars Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts (4-2) at Washington Redskins (2-4)
Redskins revert back to opening day starter Shane Matthews after giving Danny Wuerffel and rookie Patrick Ramsey chances to strut their stuff. It wasn't pretty except for Ramsey's relief appearance in Tennessee. Hard to believe Matthews gives them the best chance to win or that he's the long-term solution but he gets the opportunity to turn the Redskins sagging fortunes around this week. Stephen Davis might be the answer this week against a Colts defense that is susceptible to the run. His fortunes looked to be on the wain entering this season, with the Fun-N-Gun expected to reduce his touches but he has 448 yards rushing despite being banged up. Colts looked not only bad but slightly disinterested on Monday night against the Steelers. Their 4-2 record is misleading as they have not looked particularly good this season and Peyton Manning made some very poor decisions against the Steelers. Nonetheless, they have enough offensive firepower to pull this one out.
New York Giants (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
Giants go into Philadelphia for the Monday nighter this week needing a win to keep their divisional championship hopes alive. A loss drops them two games behind the Eagles and relegates them to fighting for a wild-card. Giants have been very inconsistent this season with last week's home loss to a Falcons team starting backup Doug Johson at quarterback basically inexcusable. Inconsistency is partially explained by injuries but the team should have Kenny Holmes, William Peterson, Jeremy Shockey and Jason Whittle back this week after having an extra week to recover because they were on their bye week. Eagles have also been inconsistent this season and, apart from last week's win against Tampa Bay, have been forced to rely on Donovan McNabb to pull things out for them. That's not a bad thing, but this week McNabb can expect a healthy dose of pressure from Michael Strahan, who regularly handles right tackle Jon Runyan. Runyan was signed to a large contract mainly for his ability to do battle against Strahan twice a year and has performed well in general but not against last season's NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Eagles won twice against the Giants last season after losing prior nine straight to their divisional rival.
Always make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds.
Best odds listed above were checked at Intertops,
Olympic
Sports,  SportingbetUSA
and  SportsInteraction.
These opinions are posted for entertainment, recreational gambling
purposes only.
Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator
of Pro Football Analysis.com,
which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping
NFL football.
|
