Manning threw 5 TDs and 6 INTs in his last five games.

Peyton Manning (39), QB DEN – Manning’s place on this list doesn’t imply that he will morph into Blaine Gabbert 2.0. Instead, his presence here has more to do with a) how his production late last year fell completely off the table, and b) his preseason status as a consensus top-5 fantasy quarterback heading into 2015. Owners will still select him with little or no reservations, simply because his name is Peyton Manning. Those owners, however, should take note of how Manning closed out 2014. In the season’s final five games, Manning threw 5 TDs and 6 interceptions. Injuries aside, he hasn’t had a five-game stretch that bad since a similar swoon in late November of 2001.

Listen. I’m not necessarily urging folks to avoid Manning. I simply think that most owners will draft him thinking remnants still remain of Peyton Manning circa 2013 and his 55 TDs and 5,400 passing yards. Indeed, Manning has the mental capacity to perform, but his 39-year-old body will prevent him from paying owners the dividends they may expect from a QB1. Draft Manning, sure. Just don’t be surprised if he picks up where he left off last year.

Darren McFadden (27), RB DAL – The year 2010 seems like a lifetime ago, especially when juxtaposed against the shelf life of an NFL running backs. But it was 2010 when Darren McFadden had his breakout campaign. Seven rushing TDs, a 5.2 rushing average and 1,100 rushing yards to go along with 47 receptions and another three receiving TDs. Unfortunately for DMC and his gullible owners, his production has waned since that watershed year.

He’s now taken his talents from Oakland to Dallas, where it’s said the Cowboys’ offensive line could make even the most average of NFL running backs fantasy-relevant. McFadden’s ability to stay healthy has been well documented over the years, and it is that fragility that makes him someone whose best days are behind him—in spite of the relatively low punishment he’s endured during his seven-year career. Don’t go into your draft thinking he can give you any semblance of what DeMarco Murray gave you last year. I’d avoid him at all costs, choosing instead to go with Joseph Randle.

Larry Fitzgerald (31), WR ARI – Fitzgerald is only two seasons removed from a ten-TD performance, but anyone who watched the Cardinals last year quickly realized that Fitz has not only lost a step (he wasn’t the fleetest of foot coming into the league), but the emergence of WR Michael Floyd has helped expedite Fitz’s move to the team’s WR2 position.

Carson Palmer returns after blowing out his knee in Week 6 last year, fortifying a passing attack that finished 2014 as the 29th-ranked unit. His return boosts Fitz’s prospects for this season but make no mistake: Fitz is on the back nine of his Hall of Fame career, and his role on your fantasy team should be that of a player who sees only spot duty in your starting lineup.

Marques Colston (32), WR NO – Colston has squeezed every ounce of talent and production out of his 7th round draft pick pedigree. After being a fantasy stud during the first three-quarters of his career, his numbers have steadily dropped across the board over the last three seasons, and he’s had some concentration lapses to boot. Catchable passes in crucial game situations simply bounced off his hands, robbing owners of precious points.

One would think that with Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham now playing elsewhere, Colston’s stock would increase. I’m not so sure. At 32 years old, Colston remains a slow-footed receiver who is no longer an every-week fantasy starter. I wouldn’t think that’s the kind of player you’d like to count on going into the season. Now certainly, there should be room on your roster for somebody like Colston, who could be stashed away in case Brandin Cooks battles injuries once again. Just know that the days of 75 receptions while flirting with double-digit TD catches are over.

Antonio Gates (35), TE SD – Gates has continued to defy Father Time. The 35-year-old did major damage last year, snagging 12 TDs on 69 receptions. I honestly thought he was done several years ago. I owned him and saw how he struggled gaining separation from defenders. Turns out he was nursing various lower leg injuries that season. But again, that was several years ago, and at 35, it’d be asking and expecting a lot to expect Gates to continue his production.

One of the bigger reasons Gates appears on this list is the four-game suspension he received earlier this summer for PED use. Even for a consummate pro like Gates, returning from a month-long layoff is not the most conducive way to ensure success in the NFL. Some may counter with the notion that Gates will be fresher down the stretch, and that quarterback Philip Rivers will go back to feeding his tight end the ball immediately upon his return. I suppose those are plausible outcomes. But, his production will at some point fall off the table, and I’d rather he be on someone else’s team when it does.

Andre Johnson (34), WR IND – Andrew Luck threw 40 TD passes last year, and Reggie Wayne had two of them. Just two. The Colts decided to replace the retired 36-year-old Wayne with the 34-year-old Andre Johnson. Johnson is similar to Wayne in that he’s a plodding route runner who now relies more on physicality and technique than pure speed and quickness to get open. As a result, I expect Johnson to have similar production as Wayne from 2014.

Additionally, Luck looked for T.Y. Hilton a ton last year, and he also fed the rock to tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. That leaves little left for Johnson, who, surprisingly, has only missed one game over the last three seasons. It’s enticing to view Johnson as a sleeper pick this year, based solely on him now playing with a much better quarterback. I just wouldn’t anticipate him snagging close to the 85 catches he had last year. His best days are clearly in the rearview mirror.