Having a player on your fantasy roster who performs well below expectations
can be a frustrating experience. Some fantasy managers can move
on from such disappointment and draft that player the next season,
while others carry a grudge that pushes them away from ever having
that player on their roster again.
There are a handful of players that have recently come up short
of expectations. Let’s take a deeper look at their prospects
for success for the 2024 season.
We have been told since Trevor Lawrence’s freshman year
at Clemson that he was a generational talent. But so far, we have
seen very little that’s generational about him through his
first three NFL seasons. Many have provided excuse after excuse
for his slightly above-average career: that he was shackled by
Urban Meyer’s ineptitude in his rookie season; that he was
getting acclimated to new head coach Doug Pederson in his second
year; and injuries plagued him in 2023. Enough already.
One of the biggest indictments of Lawrence’s shortcomings is
his comparison to Brock Purdy. Purdy has started 22 games in his
career, and Lawrence has started 50. However, they both have the
same number of games with multiple TD passes: 15. Sure, Lawrence
supplements some of his passing with production on the ground.
But even with that added output, Lawrence remains a consensus
QB2 heading into this season -- behind rookies Jayden Daniels
and Caleb Williams. The fantasy community has soured on Lawrence
as a bona fide QB1 -- as he was viewed last year at this time
-- and rightfully so. His receivers are, at best, no better than
they were last year, with Calvin Ridley now in Tennessee and Gabe
Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. replacing him. I would expect
nothing more from Lawrence in 2024 than what he has shown so far
in his brief career. -- I Trust You Not
Bijan Robinson entered his rookie season with incredible expectations.
The University of Texas product flashed incredible ability as
a rusher and receiver, but Atlanta’s coaches befuddled fantasy
managers and NFL fans in general with how they used him. Robinson
nonetheless still carved out a productive rookie season in 2023,
but it was far from the top-5 RB most were expecting.
Enter a new coaching staff for 2024. Head coach Raheem Morris gushed
about Robinson’s ability and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson
mentioned the team’s intention of using Robinson in a Christian
McCaffrey kind of way. However, early in training camp, Zac put
a wet blanket on some of the Bijan hype by seemingly contradicting
himself, saying backup RB Tyler Allgeier “is going to have a big
role, and at certain points in the season we are going to be leaning
on him.” So, which is it? There cannot be a “Christian McCaffrey
kind of way” with Allgeier having a significant role. Fantasy managers
who select Bijan will have to hope Allgeier doesn’t eat too much
into Bijan’s action. Otherwise, we are looking at a repeat of 2023.
But I think at some point, Bijan’s talent will shine through and
deliver on his extraordinary promise. -- I Trust You
I have seen and heard analysis about Jameson Williams that implies
he is entering into bust territory; that he has yet to live up
to the lofty expectations the Detroit Lions had for him when they
traded up in the first round to grab him in 2022. Some are quick
to forget that he was recovering from an ACL injury his rookie
season, and his suspension to start the 2023 season hindered the
first half of the year. But those who scoff at Williams’
prospects this season seem to forget what he showed last year.
If you are one of them, Google his end-around against New Orleans
for a TD, his end-around against San Francisco for a TD, and his
tough catch against Tampa Bay for a TD last year -- all on the
road -- and tell me he’s a bust. I dare you.
There are only so many footballs to go around in Detroit. Amon-Ra
St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs are some of the best
at their position; not much action left after getting those studs
the football. But Williams moves up the depth chart and is slated
to start this season with the departure of Josh Reynolds. Don’t
be surprised if Williams becomes one of the top flex options in
2024. Not a bad outcome for a player you can get near the double-digit
rounds. -- I Trust You
Tee Higgins entered last season as a solid WR2 option in fantasy
football, but injuries kept him from delivering on that promise.
This season will be his first in Cincinnati without Tyler Boyd,
which elevates Higgins’ importance to this offense. The
Bengals don’t throw to their tight ends much -- only an
18 percent target share to the position last season and 15 percent
in 2022. The bulk of Joe Burrow’s throws are to his receivers,
and that should make Higgins an inviting fantasy target.
Higgins has never been a huge TD scorer -- he’s never scored
more than seven in a season. But with this conceivably being his
last season in Cincy, Higgins should be motivated to deliver on
the expectations many had for him entering 2023. Ja’Marr Chase
can’t catch everything; the team will need Higgins to make the
Bengals offense click. He’s being drafted as a mid-level flex
option this season, but if all goes well, Higgins could put up
numbers worthy of WR2 status. -- I Trust You
Like most RBs, Austin Ekeler’s status as a top dog in fantasy
plummeted quickly. Ekeler was the first overall pick in some fantasy
drafts last season; now, he’s almost an afterthought in
Washington and in an expected timeshare with Brian Robinson Jr.
Ekeler’s true value was found mostly as a receiver -- something
that probably won’t change in DC. It’s unclear to
what extent he will be utilized alongside Robinson and the mobile
rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Either way, Ekeler’s days as a
difference-making fantasy player are over.
Ekeler’s production in the 2021 and 2022 seasons were two
of the best back-to-back seasons in recent memory for a running
back in fantasy football. He finished with 38 total TDs, along
with 177 receptions in those two seasons. It’s important
that fantasy managers not fall for the nostalgia of those seasons,
as that kind of production is no longer in the cards for Ekeler
for a host of reasons. He will probably be nothing more than a
secondary player as a third down back. Not terrible, but nothing
close to what he once was. -- I Trust You Not
