I remember viewing Trevor Lawrence as a fantasy target as early
as his sophomore year at Clemson. The hype surrounding him as
the next “It” quarterback was overwhelming, and I
bought into it. Fast forward six years and we see a QB who has
fallen woefully short of expectations. But I hear the excuses
already in 2025 for when - not if - Lawrence continues his slightly-above-average
career trajectory: “Let’s be patient with Trevor Lawrence.
He’s learning a new system with a new rookie head coach.”
Blah, blah, blah.
I would encourage you to temper whatever expectations you may
have about a Lawrence breakout campaign. He is a middle-of-the-road
fantasy quarterback - nothing more, nothing less. The biggest
evidence of that is comparing his standout performances to Brock
Purdy’s. Purdy has 40 career games under his belt, and he’s
thrown more than 2 TDs in nine of those games. Lawrence has played
in 60 games but has only six such games. Remember, that’s
a comparison between a player drafted first overall and a player
drafted dead last.
Bottom line: Lawrence has been an overhyped, underperforming
QB in fantasy and real life. Proceed with extreme caution going
into this year’s fantasy draft season.
This time last year, Travis Etienne was considered a low-end
RB1 fantasy option. Today, he is a player with lower expectations
at a discount price. Part of it is the degree to which he struggled
last year, posting the lowest rushing yards, rushing attempts,
rushing TDs, and receiving yards of his career. Couple that with
the emergence of Tank Bigsby and the all-of-a-sudden crowded RB
room in Jacksonville and you can see why the bloom is starting
to dull on Etienne. And if that wasn’t enough, there are trade
whispers surrounding Etienne.
What does that mean in the fantasy world? It means Etienne should
not be considered a starting option. It means, at best, he’s
a depth piece with low upside. Perhaps the only hope is he finds
a new home in a better situation, but I’m not sure how much
comfort that might bring. If Etienne stays put, there are some
who may look at how new head coach Liam Coen used Bucky Irving
and Rachaad White in Tampa Bay last year. The duo combined for
more than 1,700 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs, and 98 receptions.
As the only experienced RB on the team with receiving ability,
that might seem enticing. But too many questions remain for me
to advise relying on Etienne in 2025.
Even though Etienne served as the starter last season, Tank Bigsby
finished with more rushing attempts, rushing TDs, and yards per
carry in 2024. That production was unexpected, as Bigsby struggled
mightily as a rookie in 2023 despite entering that season as a
potential headache for Etienne managers.
Bigsby’s rebound season has some expecting a bigger impact
in 2025. But as referenced above, the Jags added three young RBs
during the off-season: fourth round draft pick Bhayshul Tuten,
seventh round draft pick LeQuint Allen, and undrafted free agent
Ja’Quinden Jackson.
There is youth in that group, certainly, but not much experience,
obviously. That makes Bigsby the odds-on favorite to carve out
a bigger role this season. He isn’t much of a pass catcher out
of the backfield - only eight career receptions in his two NFL
seasons - so he’s essentially a one-trick pony. Even if Etienne
is traded and Bigsby becomes the lead dog, his ceiling is capped
because of his nonexistent role in the passing game. But of all
the options, Bigsby may end up being the best choice, which tells
you all you need to know about this backfield.
Despite the hype and fanfare that welcomed the three WRs drafted
ahead of him in 2024 - Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome
Odunze - Brian Thomas Jr. carved out the best statistical season
of them all. He finished with the most receiving yards as a rookie
(1,282, third highest in the league) and the most receiving TDs
(10, tied for fifth in the league). Only Nabers’ 109 catches
bested Thomas’ 87 receptions as rookies. Thomas put up those
numbers despite the average play at quarterback. He appears to
be QB-proof, a standard that helps separate great fantasy wide
receivers from good fantasy wide receivers. Thomas appears on
that trajectory.
He enters the 2025 draft season as a solid WR1 option. Whatever
apprehension I have about those expectations, it has nothing to
do with Thomas. I simply have a difficult time advising others
to rely on Trevor Lawrence in any capacity when it comes to fantasy
football, and drafting Thomas as your WR1 will require a high
degree of reliance on Lawrence. You’d better have a season’s
worth of Tums by your side if you find Thomas serving as your
WR1.
Travis Hunter is the wild card on this offense. The gifted two-way
player spent time during the Jags’ recent minicamp on both
sides of the ball, further fueling expectations that he will be
used in some capacity like he was used in college but more focused
on offense.
The question remains, though: How will a 22-year-old rookie fare
in the NFL if he plays offense and defense? We only have Deion
Sanders and, to a lesser degree, Charles Woodson as examples in
modern times, but even they played the bulk of their time on defense.
That question will remain through draft season and will only be
revealed, of course, during the season. That means whoever drafts
Hunter will do so not fully understanding how it will play out.
But considering Hunter is viewed at this point as a low-end WR3,
perhaps it’s a risk worth taking.
The other question to ask is: If Brian Thomas Jr. continues ascending,
how much production would be left for Hunter? It’s a real
concern but one that could pay off handsomely should Hunter become
a force on offense. Hunter is one of those players that you wait
and wait and wait on, and if it reaches a certain point in the
draft where he is still available - Round 9 or 10 perhaps - you
grab him.
Brenton Strange is not expected to garner much interest in fantasy
this year. He is entering his third season in the league and has
45 career receptions but does have a starting opportunity with
little competition behind him. This offense is not viewed as one
that can support startable fantasy production from multiple pass
catchers, so Strange should be left on the waiver wire but one
to watch if he shows that he has a role that can produce numbers.
