Dynasty League Prospects
5/18/10
This space will be a semi-regular feature at FF Today and will
look to explore, speculate, and keep people interested in up and
comers in the NFL who may be or may not be well known in dynasty
league circles. I’m not guaranteeing anyone to become the
next star, but merely helping the reader to keep abreast of developments
that could affect your dynasty league rosters this season and beyond
and perhaps even help you discover unknowns who could become known
quantities down the road.
The Passers
The Seahawks made a bold pre-draft move when they swapped second
round picks with the San Diego Chargers to land restricted free
agent and career backup Charlie
Whitehurst. The former Clemson Tiger also drew interest from
the Arizona Cardinals who instead settled for Derek Anderson to
push Matt Leinart. Whitehurst’s collegiate stats were not very
impressive, but he did play in a run first offense and had limited
weapons in the passing game. However, he did show enough to catch
the attention of savvy GM A.J. Smith who drafted Whitehurst in
the third round of the 2005 NFL draft despite already having Philip
Rivers on board. When three recently well run NFL franchises take
notice of an “unknown” player, he should catch your interest a
little as well. Matt Hasselbeck’s career is coming to a rapid
close and since he’s been hampered by back injuries in recent
seasons, a few missed games is a distinct possibility. Whitehurst
has a big arm and ideal NFL size. The knock on him has been poor
decision making, but the coaching he should receive as an heir
apparent versus a third string backup should help him improve
in that regard. If he’s able to learn the ropes under new head
coach Pete Carroll, he just may be a valuable backup QB, at worst,
for your dynasty team. While others are taking questionable rookie
prospects like Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy in the
second or third rounds of rookies drafts, sit back and wait on
Whitehurst who has just as much upside as any of those prospects
and is more NFL ready, having been through a few training camps
with San Diego.
The Redskins finally gave beleaguered QB Jason
Campbell the boot, sending him to Oakland, after acquiring
former Eagle Donovan McNabb in a blockbuster trade this off-season.
Learning a new system shouldn’t be a problem for Campbell who
has been forced to do so virtually every season since his junior
year in college. Campbell has a strong arm and good mobility,
but has shown a propensity to get flustered under pressure and
hasn’t always made the best decisions with the football. A fresh
start could be just what Campbell needs to live up to his first
round potential. In Oakland he’ll be asked to get the ball downfield
more and will have a nice set of young skill position players
to toss it to. TE Zach Miller is a great over the middle target
that is more athletic than Chris Cooley, who had great success
with Campbell, and second year receiver Louis Murphy played very
well as a rookie despite some horrid QB play in Oakland last season.
If Chaz Shillens stays healthy and RB Darren McFadden flourishes
in a Reggie Bush type role, this just may be the most talented
support staff Campbell has worked with. Campbell has improved
each season he has started, and it shouldn’t be very expensive
to add him to your squad. Adding a player cheaply, before he has
his break out season, is a great way to have success in a dynasty
league.
John Skelton: A potential long-term option
if the Leinart era is a short one.
While former first rounder Matt Leinart will be given every opportunity
to succeed in Arizona and former Pro-Bowler Derek Anderson is
on board in case Leinart falls on his pretty face, keep an eye
on rookie QB John
Skelton. Skelton will likely not see the field in 2010 barring
a disaster in Arizona, but he could be a potential long term option
if the Leinart era is a short one – and let’s face it, anyone
that watched Leinart replace Kurt Warner in the playoff game against
New Orleans couldn’t be all that excited about Leinart’s chances.
Skelton has been compared to Joe Flacco by some pundits. The comparison
makes sense in that he’s big, strong armed and also came out of
a small time college program, in this case the even more obscure
Fordam University. Skelton has great leadership skills, fits the
prototype mold of the franchise QB and has landed in the ideal
situation for a young QB. In Arizona, he can sit and learn and
when ready work with Larry Fitzgerald, who has the ability to
help out any QB by making tough catches. If you have the roster
space there are worse options to sit on your fantasy bench for
a year. If Leinart succeeds and looks like he’ll be around for
a while, you can always cut bait on Skelton.
The Runners
As most fantasy owners know Steven Jackson hasn’t exactly put
together a Favresque streak of consecutive games during any point
in his career. Despite that, the Rams failed to secure a legit
backup for Jackson via the draft or free agency at this point
– although they did bring former Eagle Brian Westbrook in for
a physical. Incumbent backups Kenneth Darby and Samkon Gado have
shown some flashes, but have not been terribly consistent and
are unlikely to be able to handle the load should Jackson be lost.
The wildcard in the mix could be UDFA Keith
Toston. Toston put up 1,218 yards and 11 TDs during his senior
season at Oklahoma State and is a talented runner who stays low
to the ground and has terrific lateral movement. Although he does
not have ideal straight line speed for a “smaller” back (5’10”,
210 lbs), he makes up for it with quick stutter steps, great patience
and vision. If the Rams fail to sign Westbrook or another veteran,
Toston shouldn’t find passing up the incumbents on the roster
all that difficult, which means you could have a useful player
who has a chance to be a starting back at some point this season
without spending much to acquire him.
The Packers waited until the sixth round to draft a RB this year,
showing some faith in incumbent starter Ryan Grant, but not so
much in Brandon Jackson who just may lose his third down back
role with the team. While Grant is a hard, decisive runner and
a good fit for the Packer zone blocking scheme, very few people
would argue that he is a tremendously talented back. All this
means that former Buffalo tailback James
Starks could be one of the surprise rookie runners this season
despite not being as prominent on the radar as a number of other
young runners. Starks’ detractors will say he runs too upright,
but most tall backs (Starks is 6'2") are accused of doing the
same. Starks missed the 2009 season, but used that opportunity
to gain 15 pounds of much needed muscle and is currently listed
at 218 pounds. He’s a good cut back runner with speed, burst,
and sharp moves that should fit in well with Green Bay’s zone
blocking scheme. If the added muscle increases his power without
losing his explosiveness, he could be a major steal in rookie
drafts.
Jerome Harrison put together a very nice stretch run during the
2009 season which likely helped many fantasy owners take home
their league’s trophy. However, the fantasy landscape is littered
with non-descript running backs that finished the season strong,
in part because they had fresh legs and were facing tired defenses,
who promptly returned to obscurity the following season. This
list of “studs” includes: Samkon Gado, William Green, Julius Jones,
Ladell Betts, Nick Goings, Marcell Shipp and Brad Hoover among
others. Harrison may be more talented than some of these guys,
but he hasn’t been able to gain the trust of two different coaching
staffs and is a 27 year old career backup. The Browns moved up
in Round 2 of the NFL draft to choose former Tennessee volunteer
Montario Hardesty and still have last season’s late round pick
James Davis in the mix as well. My dark horse candidate, however,
is former Denver Bronco and Arkansas fullback Peyton
Hillis. Hillis was forced into action in 2008 after five other
RBs were injured in Denver and ran with reckless abandon while
significantly outperforming all of his predecessors. Hillis is
a hard running 240 pounder, with surprisingly nimble feet and
soft hands for a back his size. He should end up seeing significant
time in short yardage and third down situations, at least, and
I have a feeling that Eric Mangini will fall in love with this
kid. A player that can likely be found on the waiver wire in most
leagues that could end up having significant value is a player
that should be on your radar if he’s not already.
A player that will likely not make much of an impact in 2010
(heck he may not even make the roster), but should be on your
radar is Shawnbrey
McNeal whole could step right into Darren Sproles’ 3rd down/change
of pace roll in 2011 after the Chargers let Sproles walk. McNeal
was recruited and enrolled at the University of Miami, but found
himself buried behind Javarris James and a few other backs in
his two seasons there, so he left for SMU where he gained over
1,400 total yards and scored 14 TDs in his one season as a starter.
At 190 pounds he is a little undersized - but still bigger than
Darren Sproles – but can run inside due to his compact running
style and while small he isn’t afraid of lowering his shoulders
and initiating contact. If you play in a league with large rosters,
he’s worth a speculative spot for a potential reward in 2011.
The Pass Catchers
Mike
Thomas is the favorite to start opposite Mike Sims Walker
in Jacksonville this season and this may be your last opportunity
to obtain him relatively cheaply. Personally, I own him in all
three of my dynasty leagues, as I was a big believer in him coming
out of Arizona and think that belief will pay off this season
(and believe me I’m not egotistical enough to think that anything
I write here pumps up his trade value). Thomas has routinely turned
around defensive backs in one-on-one match ups with his superb
route running in OTAs so far. He is small in stature but like
the WR he’s most compared to, Steve Smith, his strength belies
his size. Walker has amazing quickness in small spaces and catches
everything in sight. He put up decent numbers (48-453) as a rookie
playing mostly in the slot, but Tory Holt’s departure opens up
an opportunity for a bigger role in his sophomore season. While
Jacksonville is not a high flying passing team the presence of
Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas just may give the Jaguars their
most talented WR duo since Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.
Devin Thomas
has gotten off to a slow start to his career, but he possesses
excellent run after the catch skills, the ability catch the ball
in traffic and excellent fundamentals. This year, Thomas gets
his best opportunity to succeed as he has offensive mastermind
Mike Shanahan running the offense and a quality passer in Donovan
McNabb throwing him the ball. Santana Moss should still draw the
opposing team’s best cornerback giving Thomas the opportunity
to make plays in an offense desperate for playmakers (let’s face
it the trio of AARP eligible RBs aren’t going to be grabbing large
chunks of yardage at a time). Thomas’ price tag is still rather
cheap and owners that got “burned” using a first or second round
pick on him in 2008 rookie drafts may have even already cut bait
on him – if that’s the case move in and benefit from other’s lack
of patience.
The Denver Broncos drafted Demaryius Thomas in the first round,
surprisingly as the first WR off the board, but the rookie WR
that could make the biggest impact for the team in 2010, and perhaps
beyond is mid-round pick, Eric
Decker. Decker is more of a possession type WR than down field
threat Thomas, but is a fluid athlete who can make plays. He’ll
be a great bargain in rookie drafts in the third round as opposed
to Thomas who has been a mid first rounder. Decker could be a
solid weekly contributor immediately in point per reception leagues
if he gains Kyle Orton’s trust. While his ceiling is likely limited,
a good possession WR is an often overlooked asset in dynasty leagues
for their steady point production. Brandon Marshall’s trade out
of Denver puts 100+ plus receptions on the table for some one
to pick up, and whoever steps up in training camp could be that
person once the season gets underway.
Injuries have derailed the career of Adrian
Arrington thus far in his three NFL seasons, but he’s a guy
I liked better than his college teammate Mario Manningham coming
into the league. He could end up being fool’s gold due to his
inability to stay healthy, but having a WR in the Saints high
powered offense that likes to spread the ball around is not a
bad thing to have rostered. Arrington has decent size and attacks
the football in the air and would make nice compliment to Marques
Colston on the other side of the field, if he didn’t have Robert
Meachem, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson in front of him on the
depth chart. He’s not an immediate add, but if one of the other
Saint WRs go down in the preseason, a waiver wire claim on Arrington
could pay dividends.
|