Dynasty League Prospects
8/7/10
This space will be a semi-regular feature at FF Today and will
look to explore, speculate, and keep people interested in up and
comers in the NFL who may be or may not be well known in dynasty
league circles. I’m not guaranteeing anyone to become the
next star, but merely helping the reader to keep abreast of developments
that could affect your dynasty league rosters this season and beyond
and perhaps even help you discover unknowns who could become known
quantities down the road.
The Passers When does a
third string QB that sits behind two former No.1 overall picks
have dynasty value? The answer is when those two No. 1 overall
picks have been career underachievers – to put it nicely. Alex
Smith showed some signs of life last season, but that was only
after OC Jimmy Raye installed a spread offense that featured Smith
lining up almost exclusively in the shotgun position. Will a head
coach like Mike Singletary that wants to build around a strong
defense and a heavy run offense wish to continue the heavy use
of that scheme? It doesn’t seem likely. David Carr also looked
decent last season in limited duty for the New York Giants, however
at this point in his career the "journeyman" label suits him quite
well. Nate
Davis is an interesting stash in deep dynasty leagues. He
was a prolific college passer at Ball State but dropped in the
draft due to a perceived lack of intelligence, which was in actuality
a learning disorder that may slow him down a little when learning
the playbook but has little effect once he hits the field, and
questionable mechanics. His release point may look a little awkward
but its very effective and his arm strength is top notch. His
athleticism also allows him to make plays with his legs that would
help behind what has been a suspect offensive line in San Fran
- although the Niners did add two young first round o-linemen
during the 2010 draft so pass protection may not be as big an
issue as it has been in the past. Former NFL Scout Dave Razzano
compared Davis favorably to current NY Jets starter Mark Sanchez
and called him “a heck of a quarterback”. If the Niners have a
poor start to the season, the Smith experiment will surely end
and the door may be open for Davis.
The Vikings drafted UAB QB Joe
Webb with the intention of converting him to WR due to his
athletic ability. A funny thing happened during OTAs, however,
when he started showing off his arm and “forced” the Vikings coaching
staff to let him start taking snaps with the QBs. He’s now in
line to make the team as the third string QB and could develop
into the QB of he future. Tavaris Jackson has not shown much progress
in his decision making and has been prone to injuries and Sage
Rosenfels is a mistake prone journeyman who may not even make
the team if Brett Favre returns. At UAB Webb passed for over 2,000
yards and 21 TDs and also ran for over 1,000 yards. He has excellent
size and arm strength and could be everything the Vikings thought
they were getting in Jackson. Obviously in most leagues its going
to be tough to carry a third string QB on your roster – but perhaps
a waiver pickup at seasons end may be in order for those teams
no longer in the playoff chase and are instead planning ahead
to 2011.
The Runners
Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter were both carted off the
field during the first drills of training camp in Denver this
week. Moreno’s injury is more significant and there have been
conflicting reports on just how serious it is. It has been described
as major as a torn hamstring and as minor as a strained hamstring
(which is also technically a small tear). Nevertheless he is expected
to miss a minimum of 3-4 weeks, but a hamstring injury is the
type that lingers during the course of a season. Moreno’s injury
just may uncover a hidden gem for those paying attention. Sure
the team just signed LenDale White (and in the process released
former Chief and Louisville tailback Kolby Smith), but White didn’t
last long at all in OTAs with Seattle after a draft day trade
brought him over from Tennessee due to his poor work ethic. White
is also facing a 4 game suspension, so if Moreno does miss time
into the start of the regular season he’ll be of no use to the
Broncos anyway. If you want to reach deep, keep an eye on two
interesting prospects in Bronco camp now, Toney
Baker and Lance
Ball, who have shown enough so far at least to make the veteran
Smith expendable. Baker is a second year runner out of NC State
and has been drawing some raves in camp thus far. Baker is a big
back (5-9 1/2, 234) that ran a respectable 4.59 at the combine
and was one of the top RB prospects coming out of high school.
However, injuries marred his college career at NC State. Lance
Ball led the Maryland Terrapins in rushing as a sophomore and
junior, but has bounced around the NFL since going undrafted in
2009. He has spent time on the practice squads of St. Louis and
Indianapolis during the last two seasons so he has garnered some
interest amongst NFL teams. Both are real long shots for fantasy
value of course – but aren’t bad stashes in leagues with deep
rosters in order to see what they show this preseason.
Javon
Ringer isn’t exactly unknown to dynasty owners – but in those
leagues that have many “what have you done for me lately type
owners” he may be available rather cheaply. He sat behind Chris
Johnson and LenDale White last season as a rookie, but Ringer
is not without talent, or the ability to carry a heavy load. At
Michigan State, he had two years with over 1,700 total yards.
At the college level, he reminded me of a Curtis Martin type -
not a guy that is going to blow you away while watching him run,
but a guy that gets the job done with guile, determination and
doing all the little things correctly. Ringer got a good amount
of reps in OTAs when Johnson held out and is clearly the next
in line should Johnson find himself sidelined, despite the presence
of new fantasy darling LaGarrette Blount the undrafted rookie
that owners just grabbed in dynasty rookie drafts. Johnson carried
the ball 358 times and added 50 receptions last season and some
studies show that number of touches as a “death-knell” for a running
back the following season. I’m not one that buys into the “370
touch” theory, but I will buy into the fact that the Titans will
need a back to spell Johnson a little more this season in order
to keep him healthy and fresh down the stretch.
The Bears selected BYU running back Harvey
Unga in the 2010 Supplemental Draft (which will cost them
a 2011 seventh-round pick) and that should at least put him on
your radar. Unga is BYU's all-time leading rusher with 3,455 yards
on 696 carries. He also caught 102 passes for 1,085 yards over
four seasons and had 45 total touchdowns. Unga isn’t very fast,
but he is a hard powerful runner with size (237 lbs.), and therefore
the Bears are believed to be considering Unga as both a running
back and as a fullback. If he ends up being the starting fullback
he may develop into a decent bye week filler in ppr leagues, due
to his soft hands and his nose for the end-zone. He also comes
with plenty of upside should injury issues start hitting the Bears
other RBs. He’ll only cost a waiver claim and a roster spot in
most leagues at this point, so consider adding him to your deep
bench and see what happens in training camp.
Lions FB Jerome
Felton finished 2009 with only 15 carries for 46 yards and
13 catches for 133 yards, however 12 of his 28 touches were good
for first downs so he did contribute more than the raw stats would
have one think. The talk this offseason is that Felton will move
to HB and could play a complimentary role as the power rusher
to rookie Jahvid Best’s role as the speed back. At 246 pounds,
Felton is also a candidate to see work in goal line packages.
Kevin Smith has recovered quicker than was expected from last
season’s devastating knee injury and he has been practicing in
camp so far, but since he isn’t known for his power running, his
role could be diminished to merely backing up Best, leaving Felton
as the better fantasy football option. While I expect Best to
be the top rookie back this season, he has a long history of injuries
at the collegiate level including a major concussion that caused
him to miss 7 games last season. Should something happen to Best,
Felton would then be even more involved in the Detroit offense.
Keep an eye on him this preseason and stash him if you can.
The Pass Catchers
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve
Johnson isn’t yet a household name and may never be, but it’s
very likely he’ll be starting opposite Lee Evans in Buffalo this
season. The ex-Kentucky Wildcat has outplayed the higher draft
pick, James Hardy, since the outset and has impressed in OTAs
this offseason. Johnson is a big receiver at 6’2”, 210 lbs., and
knows how to use his body to shield off defenders - something
Hardy has failed to master. He's not a great route runner yet,
but has good on field speed and attacks the ball in the air. Yes,
the quarterback mess in Buffalo could limit his upside, but things
may change under a new regime in Buffalo and Edwards has at least
shown flashes in the past.
Opportunity is what Buster needs.
Former first round pick Craig
"Buster" Davis has been a disappointment since entering
the league, but will get a real opportunity should Vincent Jackson
indeed hold out for most of the season. By all reports, Davis
has been an early star during OTAs and training camp. Davis should
at least get work in three-wide sets, but could still beat out
Legedu Naanee for a starting gig. While others have either forgotten
his name or still think "bust" when they hear it, he's a nice
player to take a chance on. The waiver wire isn’t exactly littered
with WRs with 4.37 speed after all.
Dynasty owners are not always as patient as they should be, so
perhaps its time to send a note to those that roster Brian
Robiskie and see if you can grab him on the cheap. Robiskie
was a big disappointment last year, as given his game and the
fact that his father was a well respected long time position coach
he was considered one of the more NFL ready receivers in last
year's class. From all accounts he has impressed in OTAs and camp
thus far and could be the go to guy in Cleveland now that there’s
a new QB in town. Robiskie has nice size, dependable hands and
is a good route runner. Delhomme famously locks in on his No.
1 target so if you see a connection between Jake and Brian in
the preseason you may want to spice up your offer a little if
your lowball offer was rejected. My gut tells me that Delhomme
bounces back a little this year and the Cleveland team surprises
in a tough AFC North. Robiskie just could be a solid long term
possession WR and that is always a valuable piece of a dynasty
roster – especially in ppr leagues.
TE Marquez
Branson has generated quite a buzz in Broncos camp so far,
even being compared to Antonio Gates due to his size and explosiveness.
He spent last season on Denver’s practice squad, but Denver now
has a void at the pass catching TE position after the departure
of Tony Sheffler. HC Josh McDaniels is expecting big things from
the 6’3”, 248 lb. TE who played college ball at Central Arkansas
and caught 82 passes for 1,236 yards and 18 TDs in two seasons
there. Veteran Daniel Graham is mostly used as a blocker and QB
Kyle Orton loves his check downs, which means Branson could be
a real sleeper in 2010 and beyond that will come at a very low
cost.
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