Dynasty League Prospects
5/17/11
This space will be a semi-regular feature at FF Today and will
speculate upon NFL up-and-comers who may be or may not be well known
in dynasty league circles. I’m not guaranteeing anyone to
become the next star, but merely helping you keep abreast of developments
that could affect your dynasty league rosters this season—and
you may even discover unknowns who could become known quantities
down the road.
As dynasty owners look forward to the 2011 season, we become quite
impressed with our “shiny new toys”—the rookie
class. In the same way that children on Christmas morning toss aside
all the great toys they got the year before, we make way for our
rookies by cutting young underachievers in our dynasty leagues.
The waiver wire is likely littered with plenty of potentially valuable
players that were tossed aside after not producing during their
first or second years in the league. In this column we’ll
try to find a few young players that have yet to produce significantly,
but who could help your dynasty team a lot more quickly than most
of this year’s rookie class. Just as in life, patience is
a virtue in dynasty leagues. Treasure becomes trash rather quickly
in this fickle hobby (but sometimes it turns back into treasure
again). If you can manage to consistently pick up the trash before
it turns back into treasure, you’ll be ahead of the game against
your league-mates.
In this installment we won’t necessarily look at many unknowns,
but rather at some former rookie sleepers that may just finally
wake up.
The Passers Matt Flynn
has toiled in Aaron Rodgers’ shadow for the first three
years of his career, much like Rodgers was forced to do behind
Brett Favre. Flynn finally got to show off his wares when Rodgers
was forced to miss a start against the New England Patriots, one
of the better teams in the NFL last season, and he more than held
his own. Flynn threw for 251 yards and 3 TDs with 1 interception
in that game, and he looked very poised for a player making his
first NFL start. While some offseason rumors suggest that Flynn
will be traded by the Packers before the start of the season,
I’m not expecting that to happen. The Packers would not
want to jeopardize their defense of last year’s championship
by not having a capable backup that knows their system in case
Rodgers gets his bell rung once again. However, a major impetus
of this rumor is the fact that Flynn is entering the last year
of his contract. If you have the roster space, Flynn makes a nice
stash as an up-and-coming young QB, as he’ll surely get
signed somewhere as a starting option next offseason. Flynn isn’t
the most gifted physical specimen, but he’s smart, gritty,
and has the mobility of the man he backs up at the quarterback
position. For your fantasy squad, he’ll be a great QB2 who
can grow into some real legit trade bait once he proves himself.
Former Fordham University quarterback John Skelton saw the field
in 2010 (before he was ready) and left many fantasy owners unimpressed.
There are many rumors swirling around about who will end up being
the starting quarterback in 2011 for the Arizona Cardinals—a
prize that comes with getting to throw the football to Larry Fitzgerald—and
until the lockout ends, none of us will know for sure who will
ultimately be handed that job. If a young quarterback like Kevin
Kolb gets traded to the Cardinals, then Skelton will likely never
see a legit chance at playing time. However, if the team ends
up with a stopgap solution like Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb,
Skelton will learn from the bench while impressing upon the staff
in practices and spot duty that he could be their future. Skelton
was compared to Joe Flacco by some pundits during last year’s
pre-draft process. The comparison makes sense in that he’s
big, strong-armed, and also came out of a small-time college program.
Skelton has great leadership skills, fits the prototype mold of
the franchise quarterback, and has landed in the ideal situation
for a young signal caller. He should get the opportunity to soundly
acclimate himself into a system loaded with surrounding talents
like Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and a stable of young running
backs. He’s only an option in deep leagues with large rosters,
but he could pay dividends with a little patience.
The Runners
Word is that the Broncos will be looking to add to their running
back depth chart through free agency once the lockout ends, but
right now the cupboard is bare behind starter Knowshon Moreno.
Jeremiah Johnson, out of the University of Oregon, looked very
impressive in the preseason for the Texans last year but was a
victim of the numbers game and bounced to the Houston practice
squad and then to Denver. Johnson has the speed, moves, burst,
and vision to make it at the NFL level. Unfortunately, his value
will be discounted by his size—but that won’t stop
him from making plays if he gets the chance. That chance could
come sooner than later, depending on what type of back Denver
brings into the fold. Since Johnson’s an adept pass catcher
with good open-field abilities, he could at least take on a Mike
Goodson-type of role for John Fox. If Denver does not bring in
another option—which admittedly is unlikely—then Johnson
is one Moreno injury away from a significant role where he can
showcase his abilities.
Another team whose depth chart is in flux pending free agent acquisitions
is the Miami Dolphins. They added big back Daniel Thomas out of
Kansas State in the third round of the NFL draft, but they have
little else behind him. Former Purdue Boilermaker Kory Sheets,
who Miami grabbed after he was released by San Francisco, is a
good receiver out of the backfield and could find a role in 2011.
Sheets isn’t the biggest back, but he can knock defenders
to the ground with a nice stiff-arm and sheer determination. He
is a natural hand-catcher and displays good speed in the open
field, making him an ideal player to fill a third-down role in
Miami. He also has the vision and agility to be a productive cutback
runner if he earns an even bigger role with the team. His style
does lead to his absorbing some big hits, so injuries have been
and will continue to be a concern. But he’s worth a flier
in deep leagues.
Can Scott be a feature back?
Cincinnati is yet another team that may present some opportunities
for lesser-known backs this coming season. While most beat writers
fully expect the team to bring back Cedric Benson, who is currently
a free agent, he will be 29 this year and looked fairly pedestrian
in 2010 after reviving his career in 2008 and 2009 with the Bengals.
Another Cedric, Cedric Peerman, has bounced around the league
after being drafted out of Virginia by the Baltimore Ravens, but
he has NFL-level talent. Despite lacking elite speed, he can still
bust off long runs since he gets through the holes quickly with
burst and decisiveness. Concerns about durability and ball security
may have been the reason he hasn’t been able to stick with
a team thus far, but given his reputation as a tremendously hard
worker, I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts those issues
in his past and moves forward as a productive part of the young
Bengals offense. The more obvious candidate for an increase in
carries in Cincinnati, however, is third-year back Bernard Scott
out of lower-level Abilene Christian. Scott was able to showcase
himself last season, with mixed results, as a backup to Benson.
At times he looked like a potential star; at other times he looked
like a guy that can be decent in spurts but never “the man.”
At 27, he’s already getting up there for a prospect, but
he does get to top gear in a hurry and has terrific open-field
speed. At worst he’s a great third-down option as he catches
the ball like a wide receiver and has big-play capabilities in
open space. Size may be an issue for him as a feature back, but
the ability to be an inside runner is there, due to his exceptional
footwork and his ability to cut back against the grain. Given
that Scott never really took over for an obviously declining Benson
along with the rumors that Benson will be re-signed despite averaging
under 4 yards per carry last season, one can interpret that to
mean that Marvin Lewis does not see Scott as a feature back. That
may very well be true, but it also helps depress Scott’s
trade value, making him an interesting offseason bargain.
The Pass Catchers
Damian Williams definitely disappointed those who picked him
in rookie drafts last season as he barely saw the field and finished
the year with only 16 catches. But despite his smaller stature,
he is tough in traffic due to his quickness in small spaces and
his sticky hands. He has enough burst to get open at the NFL level
and is very polished in his route running. While an ideal slot
receiver in three-receiver sets, he also has the ability to play
as a split end. He could start the 2011 season opposite Kenny
Britt—if the Titans finally decide to push aside uninspiring
vets Justin Gage and Nate Washington—and he would compliment
Britt’s downfield abilities well. Now is the time to acquire
the former Trojan before he breaks out, especially if he is owned
by one of the more casual members of your league who may be considering
cutting him to make room for the rookies he just drafted.
In his sophomore season, Arrelious Benn should step right into
the possession receiver role in the young and improving Tampa
Bay passing offense. While fellow second-year player Mike Williams
gets all the acclaim in dynasty circles, Benn quietly ended his
season strong before suffering a knee injury. All reports coming
out of Tampa are saying that Benn is ahead of schedule and will
be ready for training camp. With Josh Freeman’s growth last
season, two Buccaneer wide receivers could easily become fantasy
relevant in 2011. Benn, like Williams, has a “my ball”
mentality and fluid athleticism for a player his size, and he
can gain yards after the catch. He should at least prove to be
a poor man’s Anquan Boldin to Williams’ Larry Fitzgerald
for years to come, and right now he can be had at a fraction of
the price that Williams commands. While Benn is far from an unknown
commodity in dynasty leagues, the Mike Williams hype train should
allow a smart owner to swoop in and grab the former Fighting Illini
at a cheaper price than a similar-pedigreed player would normally
command. I wouldn’t be shocked if Benn and Williams end
the season within 10-20 fantasy points of one another.
Jacoby Jones had supposedly been on the verge of super stardom
the last two offseasons, but he has been unable to grab the reigns
completely from the over-achieving Kevin Walter in the battle
for the Texans’ No. 2 wide receiver role. The team may very
well allow Jones to walk in free agency, which would give last
season’s late-round pick, Dorin Dickerson, the opportunity
to be the player who can finally take some heat off of Andre Johnson.
Dickenson was a collegiate tight end at Pittsburgh who lacked
any semblance of blocking skills but was drafted by Gary Kubiak
to play wide receiver. His size/speed combination (6’2”,
226 pounds, with a 4.4 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine) could
add up to great things in the prolific Houston passing game by
next year at the latest. Dickenson is the type of player that
can come out of nowhere and surprise the fantasy world.
At 6’6”, 227 lbs., Ramses Barden has something that
no other receiver on the New York Giants has: great size. Even
Hakeem Nicks, who plays like a beast, is only 6 feet tall. Barden
uses his large frame to shield defenders away from the ball, but
has yet to show the necessary quickness off the line or in his
breaks to make an impact at the NFL level. However, if he learns
to fight better for the ball and use his bulk to out-muscle smaller
defensive backs, he should at the very least be a reliable red-zone
target for Eli Manning, with the upside to be much more. The Giants
drafted him as a project and he may now get his chance entering
his “magical” third year. Possession receiver Steve
Smith had micro-fracture surgery this offseason, and there is
some buzz in New York that he may need to start the season on
the PUP list. While Mario Manningham broke out in Smith’s
absence last season, Barden can be the short-area check-down option
for Manning, as Nicks and Manningham are better deep threats than
route runners. Barden should really only be considered in deeper
leagues at this point, but at least keep your eye on him in shallow
leagues as well.
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