6/20/12
Fantasy footballers are a fickle bunch. One offseason a player is
a “stud,” and a year later after a disappointing season
that player is “trash,” or at least a fantasy afterthought.
Here is where a smart drafter who doesn’t necessarily follow
the “what have you done for me lately?” philosophy when
assessing a player’s talent and potential can find a draft
day bargain. There are many reasons for a player having a down year,
and unless that player is at an advanced age, it’s likely
just a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come. The following
seven players will likely fall further than they should in your
upcoming drafts based on their poor 2011 seasons. They should, however,
find themselves back in fantasy owners’ good graces following
this season as they hopefully build that goodwill back up while
producing for squads at a discounted price.
Palmer is a potential QB1 that is currently
being drafted as a QB2.
QB
Carson Palmer
2011: 2753 yds, 23 TDs, 16 INTs
There are still many in the fantasy football community who feel
that Carson Palmer has been finished since tearing a ligament
and tendon in his elbow during the 2008 season. Palmer chose not
to have surgery on the elbow and decided to instead let it heal
on its own, which many experts claimed was a mistake. He did end
the 2010 season very strongly and also had the benefit of resting
his throwing arm during his “retirement.” Many will
look to his poor 2011 touchdown-to-interception ratio (13:16)
and unimpressive, on its face, end-of-season final numbers and
once again dismiss his chances in 2012. However, Palmer basically
came in "off the couch" in the middle of last season
and averaged an impressive 293 yards per game in his nine starts.
He also sported a very healthy 8.6 YPA. While quarterbacks like
Drew Brees (33), Tom Brady (35), and Peyton Manning (36) are still
considered studs, Palmer at 32 is unfairly thought of by many
in this hobby as a broken-down old man.
New offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is installing his version
of the West Coast offense, which will better suit Palmer’s
strengths, as he’s a smart and accurate quarterback that
can exploit the short to intermediate routes, while still being
able to go deep when called upon. The best thing Palmer may have
going for him, however, is his supporting cast. He’ll line
up in the backfield with a healthy beast of a running back and
a talented receiver out of the backfield in Darren McFadden (who
missed most of 2011). Palmer also has a young and promising wide
receiver corps at his disposal, featuring Denarius Moore, Darrius
Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and rookie Juron Criner. These wideouts
have as much upside as any unit in the AFC and have shown to be
playmakers despite limited experience. With a full offseason to
learn an offense and jell with said receivers, Palmer, who was
the 10th-ranked quarterback down the stretch, is a potential QB1
that can be drafted late in the game for your fantasy team.
2012 Projections: 4,175 yds,
27 TDs, 14 INTs
QB
Philip Rivers
2011: 4624 yds, 27 TDs, 20 INTs
Rivers threw a career high 20 interceptions last season, but
otherwise his statistics weren’t all that far off from his
career averages. It took a hot final month and a half of the season
to get him close to those numbers after an exceptionally slow
start, by his standards. Through the first seven games, he had
only seven touchdown passes with 11 interceptions. Rumors swirled
that he was covering up an injury, a claim which Rivers denied.
Because of a slow start that buried many fantasy teams, Rivers
was considered a bust in 2011 by many in this game, and some stopped
paying attention to the rest of his season as a result. It’s
silly to write him off for 2012, which based on early ADP numbers
is happening to some extent. Rivers has been a starting quarterback
for six years and has never missed a game. He is one of the most
accurate pocket passers in the game and is the type of quarterback
that will throw to whoever is open. He doesn’t need top
level targets to excel, as highlighted during the 2010 season
when Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd all missed
significant snaps. Rivers has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in
each of the last four seasons, and prior to last season he was
never really prone to turning the ball over. While he lost the
talented Vincent Jackson to the allure of big money in Tampa Bay,
former Saint Robert Meachem should be an adequate replacement
as a downfield threat, and Rivers has shown the ability to thrive
without Jackson before.
2012 Projections: 4,550 yds, 30 TDs, 11 INTs.
RB
Chris Johnson
2011: 1047 yds, 4 TDs; 57 rec, 418
yds receiving, 0 TDs
Last offseason Chris Johnson famously held out of team activities
in a contract dispute and came in out of shape after the parties
finally reached an agreement right before the start of the season.
As a result, Johnson ended the season with the worst numbers of
his young career: 1,047 rushing yards and four touchdowns after
breaking the 2000-yard rushing mark only two seasons before that.
Johnson looked far less explosive early in the season, and the
Titans offensive line didn’t do him any favors. Losing star
wide receiver Kenny Britt early in the season also hurt the Tennessee
offense in general.
This offseason CJ2K has been a regular participant in OTAs and
is said to be in excellent shape. Britt has suffered a set-back
in his recovery but is expected to be ready during training camp,
and the Titans also added former Baylor Bear wide receiver Kendall
Wright in the first round of the NFL draft. From an offensive
line perspective, the Titans should be much improved and in fact
could be one of the league's better units. They already have two
All Pro tackles and they added Steve Hutchinson, who is still
a dominant player even at this late stage of his career. It also
can’t hurt that their OL coach is Bruce Matthews and their
head coach is Mike Munchak, two Hall of Fame offensive linemen.
All of this is good news for Johnson, whose final eight games
of last season put him on a pace for 1,362 rushing yards and six
touchdowns, with 52 catches for 414 yards and another six touchdowns
through the air. His confidence is back as well. "I want
to go for another 2,000 yards," Johnson has said. "I
want to be the first back to go for 2,000 yards twice, and I think
it can be done. It doesn't matter what anybody else thinks. I
think it can be done." It likely cannot, but that doesn’t
mean Johnson still can’t be a valuable fantasy asset that
will fall further in your fantasy draft than he should, due to
his worst season as a pro in 2011.
2012 Projections: 1,280 yds rushing, 8 TDs; 47 receptions, 385
yds receiving, 4 TDs
RB
Jahvid Best
2011: 390 yds, 2 TDs; 27 rec, 287 yds
receiving, 1 TD
The risks associated with Best are well known. His concussion
history dating back to his days at California will surely place
him on many people’s “Do Not Draft” list this
summer, and his current ADP is late sixth round as a result. Last
year he managed to play in only six games after a serious concussion
ended his season; but bear in mind, Best was a Top 10 running
back on a points-per-game basis in 2011. There may be no bigger
boom or bust on draft day. All signs this offseason point to good
health for Best, and recently GM Martin Mayhew predicted a breakout
year for the third-year back. Best is explosive in space and should
be used in a Darren Sproles type role in the high-powered Lions
offense. If Best is able to stay healthy, which isn’t as
unlikely as most people think, the sky is the limit.
2012 Projections: 685 yds rushing, 4 TDs; 51 rec, 545 yds receiving,
3 TDs
WR
DeSean Jackson
2011: 58 rec, 961 yds, 4 TDs
Jackson infamously played at less than full effort last season
while expressing dissatisfaction with his contract situation.
He wanted long-term security after taking a big shot going across
the middle the previous season, and frankly he embarrassed himself
on the field at times in 2011. Earlier in his career, however,
Jackson was one of the most explosive and exciting players in
the league when he had the ball in his hands. He has the speed
and quickness to get behind any defensive back, and big plays
are his specialty. He ended last season on a much better pace
(15 catches for 263 yards and two touchdowns in his final four
games) than he started it, and he was paid well by the team this
offseason. His focus should be all about football this summer.
Jackson may be the ultimate boom/bust player in this draft, but
my money is more on the “boom”. His ADP should allow
owners to get him as a late WR2 or even a WR3, and that isn’t
bad for a player that can score anytime he touches the ball.
2012 Projections: 71 rec, 1,235 yds receiving, 7 TDs; 85 yds
rushing, 1 TD
WR
Brandon Marshall
2011: 81 rec, 1214 yds, 6 TDs
Burdened with less than stellar quarterback play after being
traded to Miami, Brandon Marshall fell from being a perennial
100-catch wide receiver to averaging “only” 83 receptions
per season. He also scored just nine touchdowns through the last
two seasons with Miami. In his two previous years with Jay Cutler,
Marshall had over 205 receptions and 16 touchdowns. Now that Marshall
has been reunited with his former quarterback, expect the big
numbers he put up earlier in his career. His talent level has
not decreased and neither has Cutler's. It was, at least in part,
the lack of the other's talents that hurt both of their numbers
over the last two seasons. Marshall is the No. 1 target that the
Chicago Bears have been seeking for years, and he should thrive
in the NFC North where pass defense is not a thing that is talked
about highly.
2012 Projections: 98 rec, 1,295 yds receiving, 9 TDs
WR
Mike Williams (TB)
2011: 65 rec, 771 yds, 3 TDs
Williams had one of the top rookie seasons for a wide receiver,
catching 65 balls for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. But he followed
that up with a disappointing sophomore season, where he caught
the same amount of balls but his yards per catch dropped markedly
as he finished with only 771 yards and three touchdowns. Rumor
has it that Williams did not take football seriously last season
and spent many late nights out with teammate LeGarrette Blount.
It didn’t help that his quarterback, Josh Freeman, regressed
in 2011 as well. This offseason, the Buccaneers fired “players
coach” Raheem Morris and replaced him with disciplinarian
Greg Schiano. Schiano has already shipped out one malcontent,
tight end Kellen Winslow, and will need to light a fire under
the former Syracuse product. Williams presents a huge target and
has tremendous body control, allowing him to make difficult catches.
His disappointing 2011, and the fact that the Buccaneers signed
Vincent Jackson to a big-money contract this offseason, will turn
many owners off on draft day. Jackson has never been a big target
hound however, and his presence as a big-play threat should help
open up some underneath routes for Williams, while also helping
the team move the ball down the field more. While Williams could
lose some targets to Jackson, those should be made up for by the
high number of Winslow's targets that are now up for grabs. With
the addition of Jackson and rookie running back Doug Martin, the
Tampa Bay offense should be in better shape, helping Williams
get his touchdown totals closer to the 11 of his rookie year and
further from the 3 of last season.
2012 Projections: 70 rec, 1,005 yds receiving, 9 TDs
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