Tony Romo’s weak collarbone made him a fantasy bust last season
when he missed 12 games after breaking the bone two different times.
In the two games where he left with injury his fantasy owners were
left with poor results as he failed to reach 200 yards or throw
a touchdown in either game. The Cowboys’ offensive skill players
suffered as a result. The team has once again failed to add a competent
backup, so the Cowboys will need to pray the best offensive line
in the game and a strong running game will help keep Romo on the
field instead of on the sidelines in street clothes. After spending
the fourth overall pick in the draft on Ohio State running back
Ezekiel Elliot, the coaching staff is likely preparing to return
to the 2014 run-heavy game plan which led to a playoff appearance
for the Cowboys. Fantasy owners must keep in mind that although
Romo was very efficient and productive during that season, the team
finished 31st in pass attempts capping Romo’s upside. He did
throw for 34 scores that season, but was held to only 3,705 yards
in 15 games, finishing as only a fringe fantasy QB1. At nearly 37
years of age, it’s hard to imagine Romo becoming less brittle
than he’s been, making him an option on draft day only if
he drops into double digit rounds.
The Cowboys used a high draft pick on a running back despite having
holes all over the defense, which likely means they plan to use
Ezekiel Elliott heavily this season. Elliot finished his career
at OSU with 3,961 yards and 43 touchdowns also catching 58 balls
and leading the Buckeyes to a national championship. At 225 pounds
he possesses 4.47 speed with elite strength and balance. He’ll be
running behind one of the best run blocking lines in the game, making
him a viable early round pick despite being an “unknown”. The Cowboys
have been a machine moving the ball on the ground, ranking 12th
and 3rd in run/pass ratio the last two seasons and even excelled
with Darren McFadden last year without the support of a legitimate
passing game. Elliott is a complete back and arguably the best blocking
and receiving back on the team so he should be used as a true workhorse.
Fantasy owners are excited by his prospects and rightfully so as
their hasn’t been a rookie runner that’s combined the levels of
talent, situation and opportunity in quite a while, and it’s not
unfathomable to see him leading the league in rushing and scoring
double digit touchdowns. There will be many fantasy leagues where
the rookie is selected in Round 1.
I would be remiss
not to mention the recent police report filed against Elliot by
his girlfriend alleging domestic abuse. While there is reportedly
some evidence that will show the allegations are manufactured,
at the present time we simply do not know the true story. Keep
an eye out for the latest news on that subject and adjust accordingly.
Many fantasy owners and NFL commentators had left Darren McFadden
for dead after a string of uninspiring years with Oakland. However
after Joseph Randle was lost to injury, all DMC did was average
4.6 yards per carry on his way to 1,089 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns
along with 40 receptions. McFadden’s straight ahead style worked
well with the superior blocking on the Dallas line, and while
he wasn’t flashy or exciting he was effective. A broken elbow
suffered this offseason will put his Week 1 status in doubt, which
may open the door for off-season acquisition Alfred
Morris to win the backup job behind the rookie, but the coaching
staff may have some loyalty to McFadden after his 2015 yeoman’s
work. Whoever wins the backup job isn’t likely to see much work
behind the rookie, but even the top rated prospects fail, and
of course the latest off-field news could put some or all of Elliott’s
season in jeopardy. McFadden or Morris has handcuff value for
an owner who selects Elliott, but their value would obviously
skyrocket if Elliot misses significant time.
Fantasy owners are chalking up Bryant's
2015 season as an anomaly. He's a borderline Round 1 pick.
Between his own foot injury, from which he likely came back too
early, and Romo’s twice broken collarbone, Dez Bryant had
by far his worst season in 2015. In nine games he only caught
31 balls for 401 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Cowboys did nothing
to upgrade their backup quarterback position so Romo missing time
again is a risk for Bryant, but as long as his foot is completely
healed there’s little reason to doubt a complete bounce
back season for the veteran. Bryant had 56 touchdown receptions
in his first five seasons and has been an unstoppable force in
the redzone given his hulking size and strength at 6’2”
and 220 pounds.
Bryant has been cleared for the start of training camp and should
quickly get over the mental hurdles associated with trusting his
surgically repaired foot. Fantasy owners shouldn’t dismiss
his 2015 season in their evaluation but should give considerable
weight to his three-year averages from 2012-2014 (91-1311-13.7)
when making their 2016 projections. Bryant is an emotional player
who should come out with a chip on his shoulder and dominate,
as he is clearly the best player on offensive side of the ball
for Dallas. Those that draft him will need to cross their fingers
and hope that Romo’s collarbone, and the rest of him as
well, holds up for the entire season.
Fourth year wideout Terrence Williams will enter his contract
year trying to make up for what has been a rather mediocre three
seasons in the league. While he did score 8 touchdowns on only
37 catches as a sophomore he failed to build on his 2014 campaign
and finished with a disappointing 52-840-3 statline in 2015. In
fairness, all of the Cowboy pass catchers struggled without Tony
Romo on the field, so this will be a make or break year for the
former Baylor Bear. Williams will have the benefit of not being
the focus of opposing defenses with Bryant lined up across from
him and with tight end Jason Witten still commanding targets,
but the flip side is the two veterans will be Tony Romo’s preferred
options almost every time he drops back. With an offense expected
to be built on the running game, Williams’ targets may not be
enough to warrant anything more than a bye week filler in fantasy
circles. Still, the 6’2” 200 pound wideout has flashed some big
play ability in the past and could gain more of Romo’s trust if
Bryant misses any time and/or if Witten continues to decline.
It’s hard to have much confidence in Williams fantasy value and
the risk of another Romo injury makes the risk exceed any potential
reward.
Diminutive fifth year wide receiver Cole Beasley has showed up
on the PPR radar at times and is coming off his best season as
a professional finishing with 52 catches for 536 yards and 5 TDs.
Beasley runs good sharp routes and is sure handed, but with a
career yards per catch average hovering around 10, it’s
obvious he isn’t much of a playmaker and most of his routes
are of the short variety. He’s likely to go undrafted in
all but the deepest of leagues but could be a guy to watch on
the waiver wire and move into a bigger role if Jason Witten continues
down the path to extinction.
TE Jason
Witten (2015 TE Rank - No.12, 5.6 Fpts/G)
Jason Witten turned 34 years old in May, and has lost a step or
two, but is still trusted by his quarterback which is an important
part of the equation. Tight ends generally do not age well, and
while he’s never been the athletic specimen he’s lost
most of his effectiveness with the ball in his hands. Surprisingly,
Witten has never reached double digit TDs in a season, and he
scored only three last year. Still Witten has missed only one
game in 13 seasons so he’s been as dependable as they come
and still managed 77 catches for 713 yards despite the team’s
quarterbacking woes last season. The man knows how to get open,
presents a big target, and did not drop a pass last year. He’ll
likely continue to be Romo’s first or second look every
time he drops back to pass so even if he loses yet another step
in 2016, his floor is likely still a fantasy starter at the tight
end position, but owners should not reach for him as his ceiling
is capped as a low-end TE1.
