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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Zero RB Strategy
Should you avoid running backs early in your draft?
8/25/14

The first time I saw it in writing was Shawn Siegele’s Zero RB, Antifragility and the Myth of Value Based Drafting. “It” being the potential winning option by just skipping running backs all together early in the draft and depend on the turnover at the position to help you bulk up at the position later, while dominating at wide receiver.

This summer, the “Zero RB” bandwagon was full steam ahead, with many people trying to implement it after last season’s many early running back disappointments. I think people missed the big picture by making it the strategy du jour. The big reason Zero RB could have been a successful strategy in the past is because of the potentially dominating group of wide receivers a person could build while everyone else is focusing on early running backs.

If everyone is doing Zero RB, the advantage that previously existed is gone. This summer I took part in a bunch of MFL10 best ball leagues, hosted by myfantasyleague.com. Most of my MFL10s have actually resulted in the old school method of loading up at running back. If everyone is taking wide receivers, it’s silly to follow the crowd. Now I wish I thought of that last year when “the crowd” was going with all early running backs.

With all that said, I wasn’t skipping out on Zero RB because I didn’t think it looked fun. Wide receivers can be way more exciting picks than running backs. So, when I finally stumbled into an MFL10 that wasn’t full of people blindly following the herd into this new world of early round drafting, I decided it was time to finally give it a shot.

Here’s how it shook out:
Zero RB Strategy

QB: Jay Cutler, CHI; Geno Smith, NYJ; Matt Schaub, OAK

FFToday’s rankings have Jay Cutler as the No. 11 quarterback heading into the season, so I was excited to be able to nab him in the 11th round. I didn’t grab a quarterback any earlier because of all the ground I was looking to make up at the running back position. I timed it perfectly too, because five more quarterbacks went off the board immediately after my Cutler pick, which would have made for slim pickings at the position later.

In a normal draft scenario, I tend to not draft a backup quarterback. Since this is a best ball league where I can’t touch my roster, that’s not an option. Geno Smith put up a few big weeks last season, so hopefully he can provide a few more this year. Matt Schaub could be in for an ugly season, but if he can just contribute a couple big weeks, it will be helpful to my cause. He does have a pretty good set of wide receivers, so all might not be lost for Schaub.

RB: Stevan Ridley, NE; Frank Gore, SF; Danny Woodhead, SD; Darren McFadden, OAK; Bernard Pierce, BAL

As a theory, Zero RB makes a lot of sense. In practice, it can be a scary path. You have to have some risk tolerance to go into a season with no star power at running back. Allow me to guide you through my thinking with each pick as I tried to put together a winning group without drafting any players perceived as studs.

Stevan Ridley: I don’t love Ridley, so I generally won’t be the one taking him in a normal draft. Now that I’m deploying a strategy that calls for waiting on running back, I need all the upside I can get. Ridley comes with a lot of downside, but his upside in the Patriots offense is double-digit touchdowns.

Frank Gore: It seems like people have been trying to write off Frank Gore for years, yet he still continues roll on. In the seventh round, it’s worth taking a shot that Gore has another year of proving people wrong in him.

Danny Woodhead: MFL10 scoring is PPR, so nabbing Woodhead here should be a good get, assuming he continues to pile on receptions in the Chargers offense. I think the combination of Gore and Woodhead will provide me a solid week-to-week base for getting points from the position, while the other three picks are more about potential upside.

Darren McFadden: Nobody has ever questioned McFadden’s ability on the football field. His big problem has been staying on the field. He’ll have to split time with Maurice Jones-Drew, but that could actually provide some benefit to McFadden. Less time on the field means less chance of injury. As long as he stays healthy, his big-play ability should be able provide a few big scoring weeks.

Bernard Pierce: For the first two weeks of the season, I’ll have a starting running back that I was able to grab in the 10th round. After that, there’s no guarantee Ray Rice takes the job away. If Pierce gets off to a strong start, the Ravens could decide to keep him in the starting role. At the very least, he could force the Ravens to go forward with a true committee approach. Even being stuck in a committee would keep Pierce fantasy relevant.

I think if you can come out of your draft with a set of running backs similar to this group, you’ll be happy. If you hit on your early round wide receiver picks, they’ll be carrying your team anyway, so you don’t need to dominate at the running back position. In a standard redraft league, you’ll also have opportunity during the season to fix running back via waivers if there are any injuries that hurt other teams along the way.

WR: Demaryius Thomas, DEN; Jordy Nelson, GB; Vincent Jackson, TB; Andre Johnson, HOU; T.Y. Hilton, IND; Robert Woods, BUF; Josh Gordon, CLE

This group of wide receivers could combine for some monster weeks, especially if Josh Gordon gets his suspension reduced. At the point where I was able to get Gordon – the 22nd round – it was worth a shot. The upside is incredible and the downside is I lost a 22nd-round pick.

I don’t think I have to tell you about what I’m getting out of the first three receivers. Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Vincent Jackson are a strong set that could all be No. 1 wide receivers for fantasy teams this season. Johnson may be stuck in a questionable offense, but he’s still Andre Johnson, after all.

T.Y. Hilton is the ultimate WR5 in a best ball that’s normally drafted as a WR2 or WR3. He is too shaky to depend on to give you weekly production, but when he has big weeks, they’re really big weeks. Having a big game fifth wide receiver after a strong core of four should set me up for a strong run.

Despite how loaded I appear to be, some depth is still necessary, since lineups in this format require three wide receivers and a flex. With byes and potential injuries, I needed at least one more body to help fill in. Robert Woods has a chance to be a second-year breakout in a young Bills offense. Woods and EJ Manuel seemed to have a solid connection last year and it can only grow with more time together.

TE: Charles Clay, MIA; Delanie Walker, TEN

My focus on early-round wide receivers and mid-round running backs forced me ignore the tight end position until later on. It turns out, waiting on the position didn’t end up hurting me that much. In FFToday’s PPR rankings, Charles Clay and Delanie Walker come in at 12th and 14th. Having two fringe TE1s in best ball should give me solid overall scoring at the position.

K: Shayne Graham, NO; Mason Crosby, GB

In a standard draft I would always tend to wait as long as possible to fill the kicker position. With the format of this league, I thought it might be prudent to grab kickers from offenses that should be very high scoring this season. Since it is best ball, I grabbed two of them. Don’t ever grab two in a weekly league.

DEF: Baltimore; Green Bay; San Diego

With the randomness of defensive scoring and my lack of control over lineups week to week, I made a decision to grab three defenses in this draft to increase my chances of having a solid score at the position every week.

Final Thoughts

This team should be fun to follow. In terms of best ball, it certainly has a lot of downside if any wide receiver injuries hit me and the running backs all show why they were each available so late. If this were a regular weekly management team, I think I’d be in good shape. I would probably start my top four wide receivers in the three receiver slots and flex, requiring me to only come up with two running backs to start week-to-week.

This strategy requires some level of risk and a willingness to start the season weak at running back. But with a few solid late-round picks and a couple shrewd waiver moves during the season, the strategy of waiting on running back could end up being a home run in the long run of a fantasy season.

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