Stills will move into the Miami starting lineup opposite Jarvis Landry and should push for WR2 numbers.

After a slow start to 2014 due to injury, Stills broke out as a major weapon in the Saints offense. Over the final 11 games of the season, he reeled in 53 catches for 790 yards and three touchdowns. Over a full season, that’s a pace of 77 receptions, 1149 yards and four scores; easily WR2 numbers.

Before this surprising deal, fantasy owners had reason to have high hopes for Stills in 2015. After this deal, it’s fair to wonder if those high hopes should remain.

Fantasy Impact

The obvious reaction to this deal is to assume a downgrade for Stills. Ryan Tannehill is good, but he’s no Drew Brees. However, this could be a blessing in disguise. In his 11-game breakout to close 2014, Stills was targeted 68 times, putting him on pace for 99 targets over the course of a full season. Stills should see a boost in Miami.

The man Stills will be directly replacing, Mike Wallace, is gone, and so are his 115 targets from 2014. Charles Clay has moved on to Buffalo, though his 84 targets will likely transfer to new tight end Jordan Cameron. Another 114 targets opened up with Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson each moving to new NFL homes.

I’m not going to say all these new targets will go to Stills as Jarvis Landry was very good in 2014 and will likely lead Miami in receptions. The Dolphins were interested in keeping Clay despite adding Cameron, so it appears they like the idea of using two tight ends in their offense. This could mean a slight uptick in targets for Dion Sims from the 36 he saw last season.

At a minimum, I see Stills replicating Wallace’s 115 targets, with room to grow. In 2014, Stills caught a very efficient 76 percent of his targets. That number was only 63 percent in 2013, still a good number. Let’s say Stills remains more efficient than his rookie year but comes back down to earth from 2015 (something that may partially happen due to the passes coming from Tannehill rather than Brees). If he takes in 68% of 115 targets, that would put him at 78 receptions.

Last season Stills averaged 14.8 yards per reception, and his career average is 16.5, so he’s a certainly big play receiver. Wallace led the Dolphins with 12.9 yards per catch in 2014, which suggests that the nature of the Miami offense could lead to a slight decrease in Stills’ average. If Stills can split the difference between him and Wallace and average 13.9 yards per reception, he’d be sitting at 1,084 receiving yards.

Combining his yardage with his 2014 touchdown total (3), Stills would have a point total that would have been around WR28 last year. At 1,084 yards with Wallace’s touchdown total (10), Stills would have been around WR13. A more fair projection would put him somewhere in the middle. Just less than 1,100 yards and 5-7 touchdowns would put Stills in the middle-to-low-end of the WR2 range.

These are very loose projections, but fairly reasonable projections in my eyes. Given that we can’t be completely certain of Stills’ role on his new team, it’s ideal for fantasy owners to make him their third wide receiver drafted (or fourth depending on how receiver heavy you go early on), but there’s no reason Stills can’t return WR2 value in 2015.