We are now less than two weeks away from free agency kicking off
in the NFL, and the landscape of fantasy football could change when
that time comes. The values of players have the potential to make
major shifts with the simple act of signing on the dotted line with
a new team.
Over the next couple weeks, I will take a look at some of the
most interesting names currently slated to hit free agency at
each of the skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver
and tight end). I will pair each player with a team I think would
be a best- case scenario for his fantasy value. I have already
taken a look at the quarterback
position. Today, I will examine the tight ends. I present
them in alphabetical order, because this is not a ranking article.
The pairings may not all be 100 percent realistic, but not out
of the realm of possibility. For example, I don’t know if
Charles Clay is even interested in leaving Miami, or if the Packers
will look to spend a ton of money at the tight end position. For
the good of fantasy football, however, both moves would be ideal.
Russell Wilson is in dire need of receiving
options.
The No. 1 weakness for the Seattle Seahawks is easily the receiving
game. They have a bunch of secondary options but no big time receiving
options. That’s how a guy like Chris Matthews can show up
out of the blue and almost be a Super Bowl hero. Any receiving
option that gets signed by Seattle this offseason has major fantasy
potential, as he could instantly become the highest targeted player
in Russell Wilson’s offense.
Putting Jordan Cameron in that situation would be ideal. Cameron
had an injury- plagued 2014, but in 2013 he showed how talented
he can be, when he reeled in 80 passes (on 117 targets) and finished
as the fourth highest- scoring tight end in fantasy. No Seahawks
player reached 117 targets in 2014, but then again, no Seahawks
receiver is the threat that is Cameron. If he could get 117 targets
from Russell Wilson (as opposed to his 2013 combo of Jason Campbell,
Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden) he could be in for a career year
in 2015.
The one worry with this option is whether Seattle would be concerned
with Cameron’s blocking ability. If the rumors are true
that the Seahawks attempted to deal Percy Harvin for Cameron last
season, however, clearly that would mean the interest is there.
If Cameron signs with the Seahawks, we’re looking at a tight
end with top- five fantasy potential.
With Julius Thomas and Virgil Green both set to hit free agency,
the Broncos will be in the market for a new tight end in 2015.
They’ll need a reliable pass-catcher that can be versatile
enough to fit within a Peyton Manning-led offense. A perfect spot
for Charles Clay.
Clay rarely drops passes and he can play all over the field.
In Miami, he would line up inside, out wide and in the backfield
(Clay is listed as a tight end/fullback on some websites). Like
Cameron, his appeal comes from what he showed us in 2013 as opposed
to his lackluster 2014. In 2013, Clay finished as the seventh-
best fantasy tight end, catching 69 passes for 759 yards and 6
touchdowns. 2014 wasn’t a complete disaster, but he only
finished 16th at the position in 14 games played.
All those numbers could be moot if given the opportunity to join
the Denver Broncos offense. Since 2007, there has only been one
year where a Peyton Manning tight end failed to finish in the
top 5 in FPts/G (2012, his first year with the Broncos). Putting
Clay in that starting role with Denver has the potential to push
his fantasy value from borderline starter to borderline elite.
With the Bengals viewing Tyler Eifert as their future tight end,
it appears Gresham is likely out the door. He has always been
somewhat usable in fantasy, but not anywhere close to a game-
changer. A new home could be just what the doctor ordered to turn
the former first- round pick into a fantasy football asset.
The Oakland Raiders had a somewhat productive fantasy tight end
in Mychal Rivera in 2014, but that does not make him the answer.
It’s clear that quarterback Derek Carr has no problem targeting
the position, as Rivera saw 100 targets (but only caught 58).
Oakland knows it needs the help; otherwise it wouldn’t be
the center of every Julius Thomas rumor.
Had Gresham received 100 targets in each of the past three years
and maintained his catch rate, yards per reception and touchdown
rate, he would have finished as a top- 12 tight end in each of
those seasons. If Gresham goes to Oakland and takes over Rivera’s
targets in that offense, there’s a good chance we have a
fantasy starter on our hands.
Niles Paul is the player on this list who could make the biggest
overall jump in fantasy relevance depending on where he goes in
free agency. Paul only finished 22nd in scoring at the position
in 2014, but if you extrapolate his five games with no Jordan
Reed in the Washington lineup over a full season, he would move
up to 12th. That ranking could move even higher in the right situation
– and that situation is the Atlanta Falcons.
Matt Ryan has always been heavy with the targets for his main
receiving options. In five years of playing with Ryan, Tony Gonzalez
averaged just over 120 targets per season. I’m not saying
Paul is anywhere close to the same level as Gonzalez, but if he
builds a rapport with Ryan, he could at least visit some pretty
high levels of targets. With Roddy White on the down-slope of
his career, there’s opportunity here to even push to become
the second most popular target in Ryan’s eyes (behind Julio
Jones).
New Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan would mean good
things for Paul as well. In seven seasons as an NFL offensive
coordinator, Shanahan has had a player finish in the top 11 in
FPts/G at tight end five times (Owen Daniels in 2008 and 2009,
Chris Cooley in 2010, Fred Davis in 2011 and Jordan Reed in 2013).
If Paul joins the Ryan/ Shanahan combo in 2015, we may have our
next breakout fantasy football star.
This could be a match made in fantasy football heaven. Julius
Thomas is on his way out the door in Denver, while Green Bay has
been aching to find a big receiving tight end for years. The Thomas
to Green Bay plan would likely only work if the Packers can’t
bring Randall Cobb back, which would actually make the thought
of Thomas in Green Bay even more appealing.
In 2014, Thomas finished seventh in fantasy at the tight end
position and second in FPts/G, despite only 62 targets in 12 games
played. Over the last two years, Thomas has scored 24 total touchdowns,
second only to Jimmy Graham in that time. Cobb and Packers tight
ends caught a combined 18 touchdowns in 2014, so there would be
plenty more scoring action available for Thomas in Wisconsin.
If Thomas makes his way to Green Bay and manages just 90 of Aaron
Rodgers’ targets, he could easily maintain his status of
top- 3 fantasy tight end. Depending on how quickly he learns the
Packers offense and builds chemistry with Rodgers, we could be
talking about Thomas as the No. 1 pick at the position by the
time 2016 drafts roll around.
