Target: John Tuvey of Fanball.com
Article: Fantasy Expert Dishes Out Advice

Hey, that is exactly what we all need – another “expert” with some advice to help your team out. In this case, Tuvey’s advice was the standard start/bench for Week Three’s games. That is right up my alley, so let’s see how he did.

Quarterbacks

Derek Anderson – Start: After Anderson’s five touchdown game against Cincinnati in Week Two’s tilt, he was a hot free agent pick up. This week he threw for 248 yards, one TD, and two interceptions while also managing to run one in. That isn’t too shabby against a stingy Oakland defense. Anyone who was really expecting another five TD performance was disappointed and deservedly so. For those who watched the game, it is obvious that Anderson is just keeping the seat warm for Brady Quinn.

Matt Leinart – Start: Looking back after the game ended, this was one of the all time worst picks by any expert ever in fantasy football. Leinart went 9 for 20 for 54 yards while his backup, Kurt Warner, lit the Ravens up. Even if Leinart is the starter next week, Coach Whisenhunt has said he won’t hesitate to use Warner again if necessary. I still like Leinart’s long-term potential in dynasty leagues, but in any other format he should be boarding the waiver wire train, which is currently departing from all teams on which he is owned.

Eli Manning – Bench: Manning avoided missing significant time with his shoulder injury and thereby prevented the absolute calamity named Jared Lorenzen. Manning’s 232 yards passing with a TD and two interceptions certainly didn’t light the world on fire, but it was better than standing on the sidelines like everyone expected him to be doing not long ago.

Matt Schaub – Bench: Without Andre Johnson, Schaub was a tough guy to risk in your lineup. He managed 236 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Interestingly, these numbers are almost exactly what benched partner Manning got for his owners and significantly better than Leinart’s stats.

Recommending owners avoid Manning and Schaub were decent calls although neither would have devastated their teams. Hopefully owners had better options. Anderson’s rushing TD pulled him into the realm of starting, if barely. Leinart was an absolutely crushing pick, destroying the few brownie points Tuvey garnered with his other selections. Wait, he really didn’t earn any, so he is in the hole already.

Running Backs

Carnell Williams – Start: Caddy owners had to be disturbed to see their running back on the bench numerous times throughout the game. He only had 13 touches for 49 yards and one TD. Is Gruden taking it easy on Williams’ fragile body? Maybe all those whispers of being injury-prone are true. Or maybe Gruden is taking the diabolical Mike Shanahan approach and screwing fantasy football owners every week.

Ahman Green – Start: I would give the expert an injury pass here, but Green didn’t look good before he left the game. Sixteen yards isn’t going to get anything done for owners. This pick is a great example of statistics lying. The Texans have put up solid rushing totals against Indy for years now and the Colts aren’t that good at stopping the run. In this case, the only number that mattered was the .80 points Green got you based on this recommendation.

Derrick Ward – Start: Ward looked a bit like Tiki Barber, racking up 120 combined yards and no touchdowns while Reuben Droughns vultured both scores. The sound that you are hearing is Ward’s fantasy value plummeting back to Earth. Or could it be Britney Spears’ career following a similar trajectory? Either way, with Brandon Jacobs coming back soon and Droughns getting the goal line work, Ward isn’t going to be much help to teams going forward. And I expect to see Britney doing Jenny Craig commercials in the near future.

Edgerrin James – Bench: Decent call here. Eleven touches for 67 yards. With that little work, even Edge can’t make much happen. Following the money into the desert seems less and less like a good idea. Think Edge is ready to go back to Indy yet?

Marshawn Lynch – Bench: Seventy-four yards and a score were better than many people, including Tuvey, expected from the rookie this week. Don’t forget that a decent portion of those numbers happened after Losman left the game and Trent Edwards stepped in. That change in quarterback pretty effectively stomped on the fantasy value of all Bills players.

The best performance out of the bunch came from the benched Lynch. Once again, nobody did much of anything in this group. Green and James, one starter and one benched player, both put up very poor numbers. It looks like Tuvey was trying for the most boring team this week as his starters and bench have been completely vanilla through two positions.

Wide Receivers

Santana Moss – Start: Three catches for 82 yards, Yawn….

Ronald Curry – Start: The Curry band wagon lost a lot of its members after Week Two’s poor showing and I don’t know if this week’s numbers were enough to make anyone climb back on board. With the quarterback issues the team is having, Curry’s fantasy value will be held hostage by the ineptness of his QB. Sixty-two yards and a touchdown weren’t bad though.

Wes Welker – Start: Randy Moss has surprised me with how consistently he is putting up outstanding numbers in the New England offense. At the same time, the Patriots are making a convincing argument to be named best team in the NFL. But there just aren’t enough balls to go around in that offense, with multiple skilled players, for Welker to be a consistent threat. Six catches for 69 yards didn’t help any teams.

Lee Evans – Bench: Duh. This was probably the easiest bench call for any expert to make this week. Evans has done nothing, absolutely nothing, to earn a start. Losman’s injury may have put the final nail in his fantasy coffin and his owner’s playoff aspirations. So far this year, he has five catches for 29 yards.

Plaxico Burress – Bench: Burress has been a pleasant surprise this season, with so many top players disappointing. This week he helped out the owners who disregarded this advice with 86 yards and a touchdown.

Again, none of his starters did anything particularly interesting and the best player was actually the benched Burress. In each of the three positions examined so far, the expert’s bench has been better than his starters. This is looking more and more like a train wreck.

Tight Ends
Owen Daniels – Start: Daniels was the sexy tight end sleeper pick going into this weekend’s games. With Andre Johnson out, the pundits thought Daniels would get a lot more targets, considering the poor receivers Schaub was left with. Daniels also illustrated why picking “must start” TEs is a losing game. All that stuff the commentators said was true, but he still only had 56 yards.

Vernon Davis – Bench: He gained the same 56 yards as Daniels above him. I wasn’t going to hold Ahman Green against Tuvey due to injury, but Davis left the game early with an injury and still managed to put up the same numbers as starting TE Owens.

Here is another position where the bench was as effective as the starters. I don’t usually have high expectations from the tight end position, but if an expert is covering it, he needs to get it right. Not so much this time….

Overall, this expert’s picks were, in a word, freaking horrible. OK, that is two words, but they combine to give an accurate summary of his results. Not a single one of his “start” guys had anything more than an average week and most fell below that benchmark. Tuvey’s nine starters had a grand total of three touchdowns while his seven bench players got four. At every position his bench outplayed his hand-picked starters. He definitely cost owners a win if they took his advice and this is not what you want to do if you are putting yourself out there as an “expert”.

Once again, I think we have found an expert that talks a good game, but is pretty much worthless. Owners would have been better off rolling the dice or just guessing. Tuvey’s projections were surprising as I did an earlier Analyzing the Experts article where the Fanball guys had a respectable showing. This time everything was a complete mess. This was not Tuvey’s week.

But was it mine? Here is a quick rundown of The Shot Caller’s Report listing some of the best and worst picks I made for Week Three.

Quarterbacks

Best Picks: Benching Matt Schaub and Steve McNair
Worst Pick: Starting Drew Brees

I didn’t do any better than Fanball’s expert at picking quarterbacks this week. Brees was a dog and I doubt I will have the intestinal fortitude to recommend him again this season. Considering how the ‘Aints are playing, I may be spared the trouble anyway.

Running Backs

Best Pick: Starting LaMont Jordan
Worst Pick: Benching Marion Barber

I rocked the running back position though! The worst of my “Must Starts” was Maroney with his 103 yards. I lied when I said he would get his first touchdown of the season but he was far from horrible. And I don’t feel all that bad about the Barber benching. The Dallas running back position is messy and avoiding it against Chicago was still a good call even if it didn’t turn out that way. Obviously, if you are forced to start one of the Dallas backs, Barber is your man.

Wide Receivers

Best Pick: Benching Jacoby Jones
Worst Pick: Starting Reggie Brown

On the bright side, I was right that Jones would be unable to fill the shoes of Andre Johnson. Jones left the game late with an injury and was woefully ineffective all day. So much for that hot free agent pickup. I was right that the Eagles would rediscover their offense against the Lions. Unfortunately, Brown got absolutely none of it.

I didn’t do much better than Tuvey at the quarterback or receiver positions. However, I crushed the running back picks. At least I did more help than harm, which is my litmus test for success. Beating out the other website’s expert always helps, although considering how awful his picks were, I shouldn’t let it go to my head.