Running Backs
6/11/08
A lot can change between the end of a season and the start of training
camps. One significant item that affects every fantasy players’
potential for the upcoming season is their health, or lack thereof.
Have you ever drafted that tantalizing but injury-prone human highlight
reel only to be hung out to dry when he yet again tweaks a hamstring?
He will be listed as doubtful each game of the season, rack up less
than a dozen catches and cause many times more headaches. On the
flipside, an otherwise healthy player that missed the second half
of 2007 may be undervalued in your league as health concerns and
fading memories of past glory cause his fantasy value to plummet.
The question is: which players coming off the injury report are
good prospects for the upcoming season? And, even more importantly,
which ones are on the short list to avoid along with Jessica Simpson
and New England Patriots’ ethics meetings? Without their
health, football players cannot produce, no matter how talented
they are, how great the supporting staff around them, or how perfect
the situation. Checking the doctor’s report on this year’s
batch of players with both questionable health and some fantasy
relevance is the first step in evaluating their prospects for
the season.
On the Stretcher
Player: Travis Henry
Team: None
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 12
Talk about working yourself out of a job, and maybe an entire
league. Head Case Henry is still bothered by his knee injury from
last year, making him a risk for any RB-starved team. There are
also the issues of drugs, commitment, and durability that Henry
will have a hard time explaining to any potential suitors. Someone
will take a chance on him, but hopefully it won’t be your
fantasy team. His best match will be with a team looking for a
one-year fix at the position—most likely a contender who
needs a hard-nosed runner who will play effectively when nicked
up—Henry’s specialty.
Player: Kevin Jones
Team: None
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 13
KJ has been working out for teams, but no one has been willing
to meet his significant contract demands. There are conflicting
reports about his rehabilitations from ACL surgery. Right now,
he doesn’t even have a team, so the jury can afford to be
out a while longer. Because he averaged 4.6 yards per carry whenever
he had at least 15 attempts between 2005-2007, his track record
of productivity will be enticing for a team looking for a back
up who can contribute in a pinch. At this point, it is easy to
project him as an early-season selection off the waiver wire when
he lowers his demands and lands with a squad. Otherwise, he’ll
be a nice free agent to acquire late in 2008 for your dynasty
team.
Player: Carnell
Williams
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 4
The Cadillac is still in the shop. He is doing some work on his
own, but isn’t healthy enough for team practices. When your team
is expected to put you on the Physically Unable to Perform list
before the season begins, expectations have to be tempered. A
torn patellar tendon is career threatening, so any progress from
Williams is good, but he might not even see the field in 2008.
The addition of Warrick Dunn to pair with Earnest Graham signifies
the team is holding out for Williams for at least this year and
make a long-term decision on their former first round pick in
the off season.
Player: Deuce McAllister
Team: New Orleans Saints
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 3
If you can’t add together a running back’s age and number of
knee surgeries without using spreadsheets and advanced analytical
software, it may be an indication that a player is over the hill.
Deuce is still extremely limited and may not even make the Week
One roster if he can’t get healthy quick. The Saints are still
counting on Reggie Bush to develop into a feature back and with
Aaron Stecker
providing solid depth and free agent runner Pierre Thomas who
looked promising as a rookie, New Orleans feels okay moving forward.
The Walking Wounded
Player: Clinton Portis
Team: Washington Redskins
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 16
There was some concern that Portis may not make this list, as
he was enjoying an injury-free offseason for what may be the first
time in his career. Lucky for us, Mr. Portis strained his hip
flexor at a team workout in May while trying to out-sprint speedster
LaRon Landry. Not only did Portis lose, he has yet another injury
to deal with. For any other running back, this wouldn’t be a problem.
However, Washington’s feature back has shown a career-long tendency
for letting these injuries linger. So, it is worth keeping an
eye on.
Player: Willie Parker
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 15
I would rather have my running back break a leg than tear up
a knee. The rehab time is a lot shorter and it is less likely
to affect the back’s speed. All this is good news for Fast Willie.
The drafting of Rashard Mendenhall is not. FWP is practicing with
the Steelers, but only on a limited basis right now. He should
be ready for Week One, but there will be no need to hurry him
back with the glut at RB in Pittsburgh that includes Mendenhall,
former Vikings multi-purpose back Mewelde Moore, and bruiser Najeh
Davenport.
Brown will battle his ACL and Ricky Williams
for playing time in '08.
Player: Ronnie
Brown
Team: Miami Dolphins
Regular Season Games Played in 2007:
7
Just as he was teasing us with fantastic fantasy numbers, Brown
was lost for the season with a torn ACL, dooming many fantasy
squads to miss the playoffs and the 2007 Dolphins to go down as
one of the worst teams of all-time. He is participating in all
team activities and is looking good to go. However, running backs
with a bum wheel are concerning. The early news out of Miami is
that Parcells and Sparano feel good about 31-year-old Ricky Williams
who is healthy, working hard, and looking fast. Obviously, the
long-term choice is Brown, but ideally they hope Williams can
play well enough for Brown to stay with us in rehab for much of
the season.
Player: Ahman Green
Team: Houston Texans
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 6
The knee problems that cost him the bulk of the 2007 season weren’t
responsible for Green missing recent team activities. Instead,
it was something he ate. Food poisoning cost him some practice
time, but with his balky knees, the rest could be considered a
blessing. With roly-poly Ron Dayne gone, I thought the Texans
would finally be exempt from food jokes.
Player: LenDale White
Team: Tennessee Titans
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 16
Since we are talking about plus-sized running backs…LenWhale
went under the knife in January to repair a torn meniscus. While
his toughness in playing through an entire season with this painful
injury is impressive, the added strain his knees are under due
to his penchant for destroying entire buffets cannot be denied.
He is not yet fully recovered, but should be soon.
Player: Jonathan Stewart
Team: Carolina Panthers
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: Rookie
The Panthers’ first round pick had toe surgery in March. Barring
any problems, he should be ready to go for training camp, although
he may be limited at the beginning. This will make it harder (but
far from impossible) to wrestle the starting job away from DeAngelo
Williams.
Discharged From the Hospital
Player: LaDainian Tomlinson
Team: San Diego Chargers
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 16
LT has already been practicing with the team and declared himself
fully recovered from a torn MCL. Knee injuries are not encouraging
for running backs, but Tomlinson will be ready for the start of
the season. As usual, don’t expect to see him suiting up
in the preseason, regardless of his history of slow starts. He
is too important for the San Diego franchise to risk in pretend
games. Our first chance to unequivocally gauge his health will
be Week One.
Player: Adrian
Peterson
Team: Minnesota Vikings
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 14
Peterson is not on most people’s injury radar since he
played in the final games of the season and even managed to be
the Pro Bowl MVP. However, he missed a couple games with a torn
LCL, was completely shut down for three of his last four regular
season games, and has continued to rehab the injury in the offseason.
Will it be an issue this year? Probably not, but factor it in
when you consider taking AD with the first pick in the draft.
Player: Larry Johnson
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 8
Johnson was rumored to be healthy enough to play at the end of
last season. Considering the train wreck the Chiefs were putting
on the field every week, it was definitely best to give LJ a chance
to lick his wounds and simply forget about the 2007 season. His
416 carries in 2006 may have finally caught up with him. Does
a half season of rest combined with a light offseason workload
return him to elite status this year? The team around him will
likely be the limiting factor as Johnson is 100% healthy.
Player: Michael Turner
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 16
After playing a full 16 game slate, almost completely as a reserve,
Atlanta’s new starter had offseason shoulder surgery. He
is already back on the field and practicing, hoping to clean up
the perennial mess known as the Falcons. If the team can keep
their coach from throwing in the towel and their quarterback out
of jail, they can’t help but be better this year.
Player: Reggie
Bush
Team: New Orleans Saints
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 12
Don’t worry about the torn PCL that cost him a few games
at the end of 2007. Bush is 100%, even going through the team’s
off-season conditioning program this year. The possible return
of Deuce McAllister and the potential reduction in Reggie’s
touches due to his penchant to look for the big gain at the expense
of not even getting decent run is more important.
Player: Brandon Jacobs
Team: New York Giants
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 11
Jacobs had wrist surgery in April and was wearing both sling
and cast for a while. All the medical stuff is long gone now and
he is not limited in any way. Opposing linebackers beware….
Player: Rudi Johnson
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 11
The excuse for 2007 was a hamstring injury, so we will have to
keep an eye on his health in the preseason. Averaging less than
3 yards per carry is simply embarrassing, especially when backup
Kenny Watson shined in many games. A beefier Rudi is expected
to take the field as the starter, if he can hold off both Watson
and the surprisingly healthy Chris Perry. At this point, the Bengals
are talking about a committee approach, especially after their
patience with Perry’s health issues. They would like to see what
their former first round pick could do.
Player: Ricky
Williams
Team: Miami Dolphins
Regular Season Games Played in 2007: 1
His torn pectoral muscle has healed and he is reportedly looking
pretty good in team workouts. Of course, everyone looks great
in the preseason and every player thinks they will be the starter
come Week One. It’s not likely Williams won’t be starting in Miami,
but he has relatively little tread on his 31-year old tires (13
games in the last four seasons) and a committee-minded head coach.
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