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Email D.J.

D.J.'s Articles

Analyzing The Experts
Week 11
11/27/09

Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required. In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks? Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of these so-called oracles and find out…


This week’s article is dedicated to the tragically shortened career of JaMarcus Russell, who made a living for three years with his ludicrous impersonation of an NFL quarterback. Seldom has a professional football player made me laugh as much as JaMarcus. It is a gift few athletes learn to embrace so fully. This weekend was a bit drearier, not having the Oakland QB’s antics to watch. My long-suffering wife always shook her head when I would flip back and forth between a real game and the Oakland contest. Sure, I could sit, drink my beer, and watch Peyton Manning light up a secondary or grab some wings while Chris Johnson rolled over another team’s front seven. But I’ve seen all that and something a little bit different both breaks the monotony and makes one appreciate the skill of the NFL’s superstars.

Which brings us back to JaMarcus. This was his third season of entertaining us and he did an amazing job. Who can’t laugh at his fourteen turnovers with only two touchdowns this year? There wasn’t another quarterback in the league that looked so hopelessly out of place and completely lost. And that was part of his charm. We all knew he was junk and the only reason he wasn’t serving Whoppers and fries in some small American town was the ingenuity of Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis. There aren’t many teams willing to drive their fan base even deeper into the depths of suicidal depression just for entertainment value, but how else can their league-worst starting receivers and curious head coaching decisions be explained?

Will there ever be another third-year QB who can only run a fraction of the playbook since he can only read a portion of the field? There have certainly been numerous first overall draft pick busts, especially at the quarterback position. However, the Russell debacle has to rank pretty high on the disaster scale. Oakland did not exactly set him up to succeed considering the lack of talent around him; but he did nothing to help his case either. My favorite JaMarcus memories have to be his postgame interviews earlier this year. After a 38-0 Week Seven spanking by the Jets in which he went 6-11 for 61 yards and turned the ball over three times, JaMarcus said, “I don’t think it’s me personally. I really don’t. Do you?” After another heartbreaking loss to San Diego the following week, in which the Oakland signal caller went 14-22 for 109 yards with one interception, five sacks, and no scores, JaMarcus set the record straight. “I did a pretty good job.” How can the genius of Tom Brady compete with that?

Even though the JaMarcus era seems to have ended in Oakland, there is still hope. Al Davis loves him and a new coaching regime will likely be installed next season. Will the Russell comedy act be renewed? I certainly hope so. It has to be better television viewing that watching Dallas squeak by the Redskins in a 7-6 snooze-fest. Until then, I still have the Cleveland Browns to laugh at…

This week’s team is owned by Mike in Minneapolis. His team helmets have Hooters girls on the side, so he clearly needed to be part of this. Honestly, I spent most of my research time staring at the helmets and didn’t learn much else about Mike other than his current claim to fame is crushing his daughter’s team in this league. He certainly has an All-Star team that would make any owner jealous.

  • QB: Palmer, McNabb, Warner
  • RB: Addai, Bradshaw, Grant, Mendenhall, Moreno, Tomlinson
  • WR: Edwards, Moss (WAS), Wallace, Wayne, R. White
  • TE: Gates, Gonzalez
  • K: Kaeding, Tynes
  • Def: Colts, Patriots

That’s a pretty sick roster, but it should make things easier for our Experts. And, honestly, they could use the help. All of them ranked every player which made my life easier (always appreciated). Mike sent in his picks and scored a solid 82. In all fairness though, he didn’t get them to me until Saturday. The Thursday game really didn’t matter for him, but all the Experts’ rankings were pulled Thursday evening before the first game of the week. Having a couple extra days for injuries and other issues to work themselves out certainly could be viewed as an unfair advantage.

Please keep sending in your fantasy rosters.

Week Eleven’s Games

 Pick Color Codes  
Correct  
Missed by: 1  
Missed by: 2  
Missed by: 3  


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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
NFL 3 2 1 3 6 5 1 4 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 80
FB Guys 3 2 1 5 6 2 1 3 4 4 3 5 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 84

Ryan Grant killed NFL Fantasy this week. Running back position was the decisive position this week, once again paralleling real fantasy football games. Few Experts did well in their RB picks. However, those that picked correctly in this area won their match up.

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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
FF Today 3 2 1 3 6 4 1 5 2 3 4 5 1 2 2 1 1 2     85
Yahoo! 3 2 1 2 6 4 1 5 3 3 5 4 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 82

FF Today has turned a train-wreck of a season into a solid effort with their rapidly growing winning streak. Meanwhile, another lackluster effort by Yahoo! cements their place as one of the lesser contenders this year. FF Today received nine points for the defensive position as did The Huddle.

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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
FF Toolbox 3 2 1 3 4 2 1 5 6 4 5 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 84
CBS 3 2 1 3 6 5 1 4 2 4 5 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 82

This game had to come down the running back position since all the others were identical. Great minds think alike or was someone too busy with the holidays to research their own rankings? FF Toolbox managed to pull it out based solely on their better ranking of Grant.

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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
AOL 3 2 1 3 6 5 1 4 2 5 4 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 84
Fox 3 2 1 3 6 5 1 4 2 4 3 5 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 86

AOL put up solid numbers this week but happened to be going up against one of the teams with the highest scores. Bad luck for them. It was awfully hard to project Warner’s injury, although we all knew it was going to happen eventually, and it hurt everyone pretty equally.

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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
Huddle 3 1 2 4 6 5 3 2 1 4 5 3 1 2 2 1 1 2     79
ESPN 3 2 1 4 6 3 1 5 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 84

It warms my heart to see The Huddle once again occupying the Stool of Shame, scoring the least among our contestants. If it can’t be KFFL, Huddle is a nice second choice. There were a few missteps at receiver, but running back absolutely killed Huddle as they were almost completely wrong on half of the guys. I haven’t seen that much red on a screen since the last time I tried to play Halo against my teenage son…

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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
FF Cafe 3 2 1 2 4 3 1 5 6 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 86
KFFL 3 1 2 3 6 2 4 5 1 3 5 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 84

FF Cafe tied our high score while KFFL put up a respectable (and surprising) score to make it interesting. KFFL could have managed a tie if they had gotten the defense correct. Of course, they were the only ones betting against the Patriots defense and, correspondingly, the only one to get it wrong. Tomlinson at RB #1? This is yet another questionable move by our most permanent resident in the Cellar of Disgrace. By the way, the Stool of Shame that The Huddle is sitting on is in the corner of the Cellar of Disgrace. KFFL doesn’t even rank getting their own stool any more. One of their readers broke it in a fit of rage after losing another game following their misleading advice.

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Correct 1 2 3 3 6 1 2 5 4 5 3 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1  
FF Sharks 3 2 1 3 5 2 1 6 4 4 5 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 84
Rotoworld 3 2 1 5 6 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 82

In a bit of an upset, FF Sharks edged out Rotoworld. Once again the running back position decided the win, with Rotoworld’s slight of Addai coming back to haunt them.

 ATE Week 11 Standings - East
EAST Record Pts
Rotoworld 6-5 908
Fox 6-3-2 908
ESPN 5-3-3 905
FF Cafe 4-4-3 900
e AOL 3-5-3 900
e The Huddle 3-8 880
e KFFL 1-9-1 870
 ATE Week 11 Standings - West
WEST Record Pts
FF Toolbox 7-2-2 924
Football Guys 7-3-1 912
CBS 7-2-2 910
FF Sharks 6-3-2 896
FF Today 5-4-2 899
e NFL 3-6-2 895
e Yahoo! 2-8-1 899

e - Eliminated from playoff contention. Try not to suck again next season guys.

With only two weeks left in our regular season, the playoff picture is starting to shape up. To be more specific, the teams that will be watching our other contenders vie for King of the Experts is becoming more obvious. I started the season looking for patterns between corporate and indie sites, pay versus free, but have found no evidence of that so far. Regardless of affiliation, there seems to be three tiers of Expert.

Tier One: The Serious Contenders

Whether through luck or skill, these are the Experts who have consistently rocked everyone else and are getting close to locking down a spot in the playoffs. FF Toolbox, Football Guys, CBS Sports, Rotoworld, FF Sharks, and Fox Sports have distinguished themselves this season.

Tier Two: The Solid but Not Spectacular

These are the teams that need some help to get into the post season. Whether it was a man-crush on Reggie Bush, a little bad luck (ESPN & FF Cafe), or some outside the box projections that didn’t pan out (FF Today), these are the teams that are approaching greatness but will likely fall short of the mark this season. They are still in the hunt, but need one of the teams in Tier One to stumble.

Tier Three: Experts that Blow

These are the sad sacks that couldn’t win a Yahoo! public league against a bunch of owners that quit halfway through the season. NFL has been a shallow mess. Yahoo!’s consensus ranking from a stable of Experts failed them miserably. AOL’s random person ranking a different position each week method has fared no better. Yet all three of these teams could be in the category above with a little better luck. The two contenders that truly define this tier are The Huddle and KFFL. The Huddle’s labyrinth of a website presents tons of data and information, but fails miserably in the analysis of that research. KFFL has just been off in left field (of a different ballpark) all year. I would love to give them props for taking chances, because they certainly did each week. The problem is that almost none of those risks paid off in any way. They weren’t calculated gambles, like taking a chance on some high-upside guy that looks ready to break out, but simply poor selections. On the bright side, I know KFFL didn’t just copy another Experts’ rankings. If that had, they would have done much better…