Week 4
10/9/09
Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom
and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men
wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required.
In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and
half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys
truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks?
Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of
these so-called oracles and find out…
Going into Week Four, there are still many unanswered questions.
Can one of our Experts break away from the pack and start building
a lead before we shift over to divisional games? Will the pay sites
make any attempt to justify bleeding their subscribers dry? Do the
additional resources available to the big corporate websites give
them an advantage over their smaller rivals? Could the independence
and willingness to take a chance that is often displayed by indie
sites put them at the top of the leader boards? Will I stop asking
silly questions?
So far, little has been determined as our Experts muddle through
the early weeks of our competition in a tight pack of disgusting
mediocrity. FF Toolbox has a slight lead in the very strong West
division, but certainly nothing insurmountable. Meanwhile, everyone
in the East has sucked, racking up loss after humiliating loss.
After reviewing the highly unimpressive results from Week Four,
I can at least promise a few surprises that will upset the status
quo.
There is something I really need to stress before getting started.
I am not a Fantasy Expert. Not even close. I tried on that hat
a couple seasons ago and looked really silly in it. So, while
I appreciate the emails, asking me who to start is not going to
be helpful for either of us. The thesis of this whole series of
articles is that the Experts we know and trust are no more able
than us Average Joe’s and sometimes they are just imbeciles
collecting a paycheck. While we haven’t proven anyone a
raving idiot yet, I’m hoping we can before all this is over.
The outlook is promising….
This week’s team is Return of the Chupacabras. Alcohol
may have been involved in selecting the name. The owner, Brian,
emailed me a long story about it, but I didn’t really read
it. Brian is a Vikings fan living in San Diego, although I have
no idea how the heck that works. He must be happy after Monday
night’s game. Favre clearly got the better of it, but I
wonder how good Aaron Rodgers could have been if the opposing
defense wasn’t setting multiple NFL records against the
Green Bay offensive line. It looked awfully hard to throw the
ball downfield with Jared Allen’s helmet firmly planted
in Rodgers’ chest on every play.
- QB: Anderson, Campbell, E. Manning, Russell
- RB: Forte, McClain, Lynch, Mendenhall
- WR: Colston, Harvin, Knox, R. Moss, S. Moss (WAS)
- TE: Clark (IND), Shockey
- K: Crosby, Suisham, Vinatieri
- Def: Bills, 49ers
The start of bye weeks and injury issues depleted some of the
depth on this team, leaving us with this bunch. All things considered,
it is a better than average line-up with Fast Willie Parker banged
up and riding the pine this week, opening the door for Mendenhall.
As an aside, Brian was kind enough to rank his own players before
the games began and send that info to me on Saturday. This has
absolutely no bearing on our contest other than additional embarrassment
for the Experts who underperformed his solid score of 85 points.
As usual, FF Today and The Huddle each get nine points for their
lack of defensive picks (Experts’ average at that position
rounded down). Also, Crosby and Suisham inconveniently scored
the same fantasy points for the week, making a ranking of ‘2’
or ‘3’ correct for both and worth the full five points
for each player.
Week Four’s Games
| Pick Color Codes |
|
| Correct |
|
| Missed by: 1 |
|
| Missed by: 2 |
|
| Missed by: 3 |
|
|
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A
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C
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E.
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R
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F
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t
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L
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c
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M
c
C
l
a
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M
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a
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C
o
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t
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H
a
r
v
i
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K
n
o
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R.
M
o
s
s |
S.
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
C
l
a
r
k
I
N
D
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S
h
o
c
k
e
y |
C
r
o
s
b
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S
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s
h
a
m |
V
i
n
a
t
i
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r
i |
B
i
l
l
s |
4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| Fox |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
84 |
| FFSharks |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
3 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
84 |
|
Ugh. A tie. There was nothing wrong with not ranking McClain since
he was both last in our RB rankings and didn’t get any fantasy
points. So much for him being the goal line vulture in Baltimore.
I was amazed how many Experts ranked Jason Campbell as the #1 QB
of this bunch. Really? Anything is better than Russell and Oakland’s
sorry attempts at offense, but dropping Eli Manning down to third
seemed to be a curious choice.
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A
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C
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E.
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R
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s
e
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F
o
r
t
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L
y
n
c
h |
M
c
C
l
a
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n |
M
e
n
d
e
n
h
a
l
l |
C
o
l
s
t
o
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H
a
r
v
i
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K
n
o
x |
R.
M
o
s
s |
S.
M
o
s
s
W
A
S |
C
l
a
r
k
I
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S
h
o
c
k
e
y |
C
r
o
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b
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S
u
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s
h
a
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V
i
n
a
t
i
e
r
i |
B
i
l
l
s |
4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| Huddle |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
NR |
2 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
91 |
| NFL |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
NR |
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
NR |
NR |
2 |
1 |
85 |
|
The Huddle easily scored the most points this week. Wow. All my
sarcastic jokes about paying good money for crappy advice need to
be tossed out. Not really of course. I’ll just file them for
next week and assume this was an aberration rather than a trend.
Huddle did an amazing job though, nailing just about everything.
On the other hand, the NFL managed to rank only one of our three
kickers, making them once again the Expert with the shallowest rankings.
Anyone who plays in a league with more than four teams would do
better to look elsewhere.
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A
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E.
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R
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F
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L
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M
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C
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a
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M
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a
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C
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t
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H
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v
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K
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R.
M
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S.
M
o
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W
A
S |
C
l
a
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k
I
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S
h
o
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k
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C
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o
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b
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S
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h
a
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V
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a
t
i
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r
i |
B
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l
s |
4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| KFFL |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
80 |
| FFToday |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
NR |
2 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
85 |
|
FF Today finally gets the luxury of not playing one of the week’s
high scorers and notches its first win of the season. Mendenhall
and Santana Moss killed KFFL while FF Today’s man-crush on
Colston cost them a few points. Again, both of them loved Campbell.
Washington’s matchup was nice, but the Redskins’ offense
is a joke, at least partly due to the ineptitude of their QB.
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A
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F
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L
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M
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M
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a
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C
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H
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K
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R.
M
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S.
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s
W
A
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C
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k
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S
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k
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C
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S
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V
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B
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4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| FFCafe |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
82 |
| CBS |
NR |
2 |
1 |
NR |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
84 |
|
CBS squeaked by FF Cafe in this one. Not ranking the train wreck
that is JaMarcus Russell is one thing, but blowing off Derek Anderson
says a lot about the sorry Experts at CBS. It wasn’t that
long ago that Anderson was a fantasy football darling.
| |
A
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M
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K
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R.
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S.
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W
A
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C
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k
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h
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k
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C
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b
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S
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V
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B
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s |
4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| Rotoworld |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
84 |
| Yahoo! |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
82 |
|
With a score identical to the one above, Rotoworld gets their second
win of the season. Interestingly, the rankings of these two Experts
are very, very similar, with none of them being more than one pick
off from the other. Was this a coincidence or did we just witness
a matchup of two Experts who refuse to take many chances?
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A
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F
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L
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M
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C
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H
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K
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R.
M
o
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s |
S.
M
o
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s
W
A
S |
C
l
a
r
k
I
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D
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S
h
o
c
k
e
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C
r
o
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b
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S
u
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h
a
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V
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a
t
i
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r
i |
B
i
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l
s |
4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| AOL |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
NR |
3 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
83 |
| FB
Guys |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
86 |
|
AOL continues to disgrace Experts everywhere with their poor selections
and multiple NR rankings. I know I’ve mentioned it before,
but AOL blogs all their rankings, so updating Mendenhall would be
pretty simple. Even before FWP was declared out, Mendenhall deserved
to have some sort of ranking. FB Guys continue their rock solid
play with another great outing.
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L
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M
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M
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a
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C
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H
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K
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R.
M
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s |
S.
M
o
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s
W
A
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C
l
a
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k
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S
h
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k
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C
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b
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S
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V
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a
t
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B
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s |
4
9
e
r
s |
TPts |
| Correct |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
| ESPN |
NR |
2 |
1 |
NR |
1 |
2 |
NR |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
82 |
| FFToolbox |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
NR |
3 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
82 |
|
A second tie here, again with subpar scores. The shocking thing
is FF Toolbox being part of it. I’ve spent the last three
week’s talking them up after an excellent start and they finally
came crashing back to Earth. That’s what I get for being nice
to someone. ESPN could have won this if they had taken the time
to rank Anderson.
| ATE Week 4
Standings - East |
| EAST |
Record |
Pts |
| Rotoworld |
2-2 |
322 |
| The Huddle |
2-2 |
322 |
| Fox |
1-2-1 |
328 |
| ESPN |
1-1-2 |
322 |
| FF Cafe |
1-2-1 |
320 |
| KFFL |
1-2-1 |
316 |
| AOL |
0-3-1 |
318 |
|
|
| ATE Week 4
Standings - West |
| WEST |
Record |
Pts |
| Football Guys |
4-0 |
330 |
| FF Toolbox |
3-0-1 |
338 |
| CBS |
3-0-1 |
324 |
| FF Sharks |
2-0-2 |
328 |
| Yahoo! |
1-3 |
324 |
| FF Today |
1-2-1 |
321 |
| NFL |
0-3-1 |
323 |
|
|
The point spread from high to low now stands at 22, with FF Toolbox
leading the way and a humiliated KFFL scoring the least points over
the first four weeks. Football Guys took over sole possession of
first place in the West with our only perfect record while Rotoworld
and The Huddle are slowly rising to the top in the wasteland known
as the East division. Rotoworld’s emergence is no surprise
since they won it all in our first season, but The Huddle has been
pretty dismal thus far and its inclusion at the top may say more
about luck and the lack of talent in their division than Expert
skill. It is possible I judged them too harshly at the beginning
of the season, but let’s not go that far yet. They still have
lots of time to prove me right.
NFL Fantasy and AOL Fanhouse are the only teams without a win and,
looking over their picks each week, I can’t see this changing
anytime soon. AOL makes their picks Tuesday morning, posts them
Friday, and never updates them. Meanwhile, NFL just doesn’t
bother ranking many players. What’s their tagline now? “If
you want the NFL, go to the NFL. And lose.” Something like
that at least. All this is intriguing as both of these bottom-dwelling
competitors fall firmly into the corporate side of things. Having
the resources to make timely recommendations on most players shouldn’t
be much of a stretch for either organization, but it has been a
huge problem so far.
We have three more inter-divisional games and then finish up
the regular season with six games inside each division. A half
dozen teams will make the playoffs: the division winners, runner-ups,
and two wild card teams. Right now it looks like four teams will
come from the West. AOL and NFL are digging a pretty deep hole
at this point and have some work to do in the coming weeks to
get competitive. Meanwhile, our pay sites at Football Guys and
The Huddle are showing themselves to be at least solid, if not
spectacular. Unfortunately, the Pay Site Showdown between these
two won’t happen until Week Seven, but we will get to that
grudge match.
None of our Experts have done much to prove they deserve to be
crowned this season’s King of the Experts. Only two managed
to beat our team owner’s rankings this week while another
two tied it. That means that listening to these clowns would have
been the wrong answer in ten out of fourteen cases this week.
That doesn’t inspire much confidence in the ability of Experts….
|
