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Email D.J.

D.J.'s Articles

Analyzing The Experts
Week 5
10/16/09

Every industry has experts; those sages that dispense wisdom and truth from atop the mountain. In philosophy these learned men wear long, flowing robes and an equally lengthy beard is required. In fantasy football, a backwards ball cap, clipboard of notes, and half empty bottle of Coors Light is more likely. But are these guys truly experts? Do they know any better than the rest of us schmucks? Each week Analyzing the Experts will take aim at one or more of these so-called oracles and find out…


With much sadness and disappointment, I must confirm the rumors that AOL Fanhouse finally got their first win of the season. As soon as I get my sarcasm groove going, each of my whipping boys finally ekes out a win. Now I need to find a new clown to pick on. Luckily, there are still a number of qualified candidates in our herd of supposed Experts.

On the huge surprise front, our lackluster East division won five out of seven matchups this week, shocking the almighty West. We might have some competition after all. Or maybe it had more to do with Sims-Walker being benched at the last second, the Giants’ Steve Smith somehow being our best receiver, and DeSean Jackson disappearing against a horrible Tampa Bay secondary. As the talking heads love to say, that’s why they play the games.

I received a number of emails this week. Most were asking me for the line up our Experts were going to be ranking this week as everyone wants to try their hand at beating up on the Experts. I chalk that up to the less than stellar performance of our contestants thus far. Our Experts are playing for respect now, because they certainly aren’t getting any. I can’t score and publish all of the individual rankings I received, but I will continue to post the team in the FFToday forums on Saturday. If you are all over it, go ahead and put your ranks in there rather than adding them to my already overflowing inbox. The Experts are forced to divulge their picks to the public, so if you are going to talk smack, put it out there for everyone to see and laugh at.

I also ran across an email defending the Experts. I was a bit stunned, but thought it deserved an audience, after I fixed the numerous misspellings and sorry Arkansas grammar. Remember – spell check is your friend.

Concerned Reader: Isn’t it unfair to post the owner’s score against the Experts? I mean, the Experts post theirs way earlier and have to rank everyone. They don’t get to do it Saturday afternoon for only twenty players.

My Response: Unfair? Possibly. Do I care? Not at all. The Experts should have an unrivaled depth of knowledge and be putting in a lot more time than individual owners. Fantasy Experts eat and breathe football while collecting a paycheck for their advice. If it sucks, that will be cheerfully pointed out, sometimes a bit harshly. If it’s good, I’ll be the first to congratulate them for a job well done. The Experts possible restrictions are offset by their increased resources, including experience, knowledge, time, and maybe some inside information.

Looking over the results to date, I’m a little dubious about the inside information and starting to wonder about the other things. Do they dash off their rankings in thirty minutes on the way to a real job? Have they every played fantasy football? In some cases, I suspect they spent a large part of their childhood riding on the short bus and mastering finger painting.

This week’s team was sent in by Derek from Stockton, CA. His team name is the Sokolov Snowchargers, which has something to do with an online video game I had never heard of. Like our Experts, Derek is playing for pride after getting owned by his wife’s team last season. Let that be a lesson to everyone. Never let your wife play fantasy football with you. If you win, smack talk will likely be counterproductive to both a happy marriage and your sex life, while she will make sure all your friends know if she beats the snot out of you. I speak from hard-earned experience gained a number of years ago that still casts a dark shadow over my fantasy football career. It’s a painful kick to the groin every time my wife starts a conversation with, “Do you remember that game I beat you down to the tune of 159 to 34? That really sucked for you….”

  • QB: Cassel, Garrard, Ryan
  • RB: Harrison, S. Jackson, Rice, Slaton
  • WR: Boldin, Garcon, D. Jackson, Sims-Walker, Smith (NYG)
  • TE: Celek, Fasano
  • K: Feely, Janikowski, Reed
  • Def: Broncos, Browns, Dolphins

No one carries three kickers or defenses unless its their first year playing fantasy football and they like getting ridiculed, but I wanted to see how our Experts would do with some more choices in these often neglected areas. That was unfortunate as we will see shortly. I started a trend last week and our owner this time around sent in his rankings Saturday as well. Derek managed a score of 76. On the surface, that doesn’t seem very inspiring. However, it was once again a hurdle that many of our Experts couldn’t overcome. Everyone keep sending in your teams too. While I have a bunch sitting in the hopper, most are five weeks old and many have only eight or ten players on them. Current and deep teams will make my life easier and that’s what this is all about, right? On to the carnage….

Week Five’s Games

 Pick Color Codes  
Correct  
Missed by: 1  
Missed by: 2  
Missed by: 3  


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TPts
Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
Huddle 1 3 2 3 1 2 4 3 4 1 2 5 1 2 2 NR 1       72
CBS 3 2 1 2 4 3 1 2 5 1 3 4 1 NR 2 NR 1 2 NR 1 74

Remember what I just said about that unimpressive 76 scored by the team owner? Yeah, he would have beaten both of these clowns. The receiver position was a complete mess and The Huddle managed one correct pick. That’s right – one. I was a little bummed after Huddle won last week, but I knew they would come through for me this time around. One pick right – gotta love it. The Huddle got eleven points (Experts’ average rounded down) for their lack of defensive picks.

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TPts
Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
KFFL 3 1 2 2 4 1 3 4 5 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 72
FFToolbox 3 1 2 4 2 3 1 3 5 2 4 1 1 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 78

It doesn’t get much better in our second matchup. FF Toolbox correctly slotted Steve Smith, our only contestant to do so, and that went a long way toward getting the win here. He’s our first Expert to actually beat the owner, too. However, it still wasn’t exactly a remarkable showing.

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TPts
Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
FFCafe 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 5 2 4 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 80
Yahoo! 3 1 2 3 1 4 2 2 5 1 3 4 1 NR 2 NR 1 1 NR 2 72

FF Cafe ended up with our second highest score of the week, being pretty close at everything other than the receivers and Cleveland’s defense. Yahoo! hated on Ray Rice and that cost them. Also, not a single Expert got the two TEs correct. I thought someone might go out on a limb and pick Fasano, but no luck.

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Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
Rotoworld 3 2 1 4 3 1 2 2 5 1 4 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 1 84
FB Guys 2 1 3 3 2 1 4 2 5 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 76

Continuing their run, Rotoworld took down a strong Football Guys team, easily scoring the most points this week. Rotoworld was one of two Experts to properly rank the kickers and the only one to get the running backs perfect. FB Guys was average and that just wasn’t good enough this time around.

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TPts
Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
AOL 2 1 3 4 3 2 1 5 4 1 3 2 1 2 1 NR 2 2 3 1 78
FFToday 3 1 2 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 1       74

As previously mentioned, AOL got their first win of the season in ugly fashion. Neither team here did anything notable, scoring right around the average. AOL just sucked a little bit less than FFToday. AOL got the kickers right, balancing out their complete whiff on Boldin while FFToday received their eleven points for defense just like Huddle.

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N
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Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
ESPN 3 1 2 4 2 3 1 1 5 2 3 4 1 NR 2 NR 1 2 3 1 74
FFSharks 3 1 2 1 3 4 2 4 5 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 70

FF Sharks set the mark for abject futility this week, scoring only 70 points. Picking Harrison as the number one running back could have been ballsy and brilliant, but ended up just being stupid. ESPN gets the win by default.

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N
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Correct 2 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 3  
Fox 3 1 2 4 1 3 2 1 5 2 4 3 1 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 76
NFL 3 1 2 1 3 2 4 1 5 2 4 3 1 NR 2 3 1 1 NR 2 74

At least NFL Fantasy is staying true to themselves and continuing to suck, although they only had two NR picks this time around. Another selection of Harrison as top RB doomed them to continue a gloomy, depressing, winless season. Fox would have lost to a good team.

 ATE Week 5 Standings - East
EAST Record Pts
Rotoworld 3-2 406
Fox 2-2-1 404
FF Cafe 2-2-1 400
ESPN 2-1-2 369
The Huddle 2-3 394
AOL 1-3-1 396
KFFL 1-3-1 388
 ATE Week 5 Standings - West
WEST Record Pts
FF Toolbox 4-0-1 416
Football Guys 4-1 406
CBS 4-0-1 398
FF Sharks 2-1-2 398
Yahoo! 1-4 396
FF Today 1-3-1 395
NFL 0-4-1 397

Five weeks into the competition and some teams are starting to separate from the pack. In the East, Rotoworld is charging, but anyone can catch them with a few good weeks (as unlikely as that may be). The West has evolved into two tiers. FF Toolbox, Football Guys, and CBS all have four wins and look to be cruising to the playoffs. With no wins, NFL is pretty much toast, as it would take a miracle for them to get back into contention. KFFL has managed the least points, surprising me after so many readers requested them to be part of the competition. It hasn’t just been a bad week or two for them. They have quietly sucked every week

And once again our Experts faltered against the owner’s picks. I guess I’ll have to add that in for next season’s contest. It’s too much fun seeing how easy it is to beat some of these chumps. Only four Experts bested the owner benchmark this week with another two tying it. It’s hard to give very high marks to our competitors when they don’t seem to be doing any better than an Average Joe.