Last summer, C.J. Stroud doubters were plentiful. He silenced
those doubters on his way to running away with the Offensive Rookie
of the Year award. He was also a meaningful fantasy asset in year
one.
Stroud didn’t do much as a rusher, but he slung the ball
all over the field. He became the fifth quarterback to pass for
4000 yards as a rookie. He also passed for at least 300 yards
in six games, tied for the most games with 300-plus yards last
season.
Heading into his sophomore season, Stroud could compete for the
passing yards title. The Texans added Stefon Diggs and will almost
certainly adjust their offensive philosophy to focus on Stroud’s
arm. The Texans are poised to be one of the NFL’s most dangerous
offenses in 2024.
If Stroud can continue to produce prolific yardage numbers while
tacking on a few more touchdowns (23 last season), he has a strong
chance to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
The drumbeat of “Joe Mixon is washed” has picked
up in the last two years and this narrative carries legitimate
weight. Mixon’s efficiency has continued to decline year
after year and he hasn’t looked like a difference maker
on the field. Despite these concerns, Mixon has finished as a
top-10 fantasy running back in three straight seasons.
He has been able to maintain fantasy relevance by consolidating
the vast majority of touches in Cincinnati including plenty of
rushing work last season (67% rush share), targets (64) and carries
at the goal line. By monopolizing the backfield opportunities,
it was fairly difficult for Mixon to fail considering the quality
of the Cincinnati offense.
Whether fantasy managers like it or not, Mixon is set up to dominate
the backfield of another phenomenal offense yet again. Rhetoric
from Texans’ training camp indicates that Mixon will take
on a bell-cow role. If this is the case, Mixon should see the
necessary volume to finish as a low-end RB1 once again.
Nico Collins finally had the necessary quarterback play that
allowed him to put his talent on display. With Stroud delivering
passes, Collins burst onto the scene in a big way, finishing the
year as the WR7 in PPR leagues.
Not only did Collins fill his highlight reel with flashy plays,
he also was among the league’s most efficient receivers.
He became just the fifth receiver to ever post at least 3.00 yards
per route run. Collins was joined by Tyreek Hill as the only player
to achieve this feat last year.
There is new competition in town this year in the form of Stefon
Diggs and it’s unrealistic to expect another season of 16.2
yards per reception. While this caps Collins’ overall ceiling,
it should not lead to drafters shying away from him. He has proven
to be an immensely talented receiver who will maintain a prominent
role in the offense.
Stefon Diggs was one of fantasy football’s most frustrating
players to own last year. He often failed to reach his potential
on a weekly basis, but he wasn’t a player who could be left
on the bench. He was stuck in the middle ground where managers
were constantly second-guessing themselves.
Even though Diggs’ overall output did not meet expectations,
he still showed traits of an elite receiver, particularly in his
ability to earn targets. He finished the year with a 29.5 percent
target share, ranking 9th among wide receivers. His 0.27 targets
per route run ranked 13th.
Diggs will face a level of target competition that he was not
accustomed to in Buffalo. Nico Collins and Tank Dell will both
see their fair share of looks from Stroud. During his time in
Buffalo, Diggs’ fantasy value has been driven by his ability to
dominate the target share market. With this coming into question,
it is fair to be hesitant with Diggs this year. At age 30, he
feels like more of a WR2 that lacks the upside of a WR1.
Stroud was actually able to support multiple breakout seasons
last year. Fellow rookie Tank Dell joined the modern group of
small receivers who can dominate at the NFL level. Before a season-ending
injury in Week 13, Dell demonstrated the ability to deliver monster
weeks. In ten games before his injury, Dell cleared 25 fantasy
points three times and scored at least 17 points in six games.
Dell made a living as Houston’s big play, deep threat.
His 14.3-yard aDOT was the 12th highest of any receiver last year.
Unlike many other vertical weapons in the NFL, Dell also saw consistent
volume. His 20.4 percent target share is not an elite mark, but
it is strong for someone who is used like Dell.
While both Diggs and Collins can get vertical, Dell will likely
reprise his role as the big play weapon. The addition of Diggs
does bring into question whether or not Dell can maintain his
target share. As long as Stroud continues to target Dell at a
reasonable rate, he can be a strong option at receiver every week
but we may see more volatility in Dell’s output.
It is rather difficult to define Dalton Schultz’s value
in fantasy football. He is a quality talent, and that shows in
his ability to consistently be a featured part of an offense.
Since becoming the TE1 in Dallas four years ago, Schultz has consistently
floated around 90 targets. In these seasons, he has been a viable
fantasy option but has never ascended into the elite tier of tight
ends.
Schultz is likely in store for more of the same this year. He
will be Houston’s go-to pass catching TE but he doesn’t
have a clear path to finishing much higher than the TE10. His
path to paying off in a big way is through double-digit touchdowns.
This is possible in the Houston offense, but isn’t something
that managers should bank on. He is most likely destined to finish
as a bottom-tier TE1, which serves a purpose, but he is by no
means an upside play.
