Heading into last season, Trevor Lawrence was pegged as a breakout
candidate. But from a fantasy perspective, his production remained
stagnant and he was a fringe QB1. He did show a high-end ceiling
for a stretch, stringing together four straight games with 20-plus
fantasy points.
Several “excuses” can be made for Lawrence’s
pedestrian fantasy production. He suffered a concussion, a knee
bruise, a shoulder sprain, and a high-ankle sprain. He was a regular
on the injury report and dealt with nagging issues throughout
the second half of the season. Lawrence also missed out on plenty
of fantasy points thanks to dropped passes and near miss plays.
He led all quarterbacks in EPA lost to dropped passes.
Lawrence has yet to have a season where things fully come together
but he’s consistently been around 4000 yards passing and
rushed for 9 TDs the last two seasons. Even in an up and down
season last year, he finished as the QB13. He is being drafted
as the QB14 this season around his floor, but he does have room
to grow making him a solid selection in the middle rounds of redraft
leagues.
Travis Etienne was a rather divisive running back last offseason.
The rhetoric coming out of Jacksonville made it seem that the
coaching staff wanted to take work off of his plate and have a
committee in the backfield. Things played out in the complete
opposite direction. Etienne garnered 325 touches, third most among
running backs. His 73 percent snap share also ranked third.
The Jaguars clearly like Etienne as a talent and did not make
a significant addition to their stable of running backs, making
it reasonable to expect that Etienne will see high-end usage once
again in 2024. He could very easily be one of the league leaders
in touches.
Etienne’s fantasy output could also improve with increased
efficiency. The Jaguars’ offensive line sustained several
injuries last season, leading to the line being shuffled around
multiple times. Poor blocking led to an abysmal 3.8 yards per
carry for Etienne. This was a significant step back from the 5.1
YPC he posted in 2022. Increased efficiency along with a big workload
could allow Etienne to finish as a top-five RB this season.
Tank Bigsby was the player who was supposed to take work away
from Etienne last season. There’s no sugarcoating it, Bigsby
looked bad on the field. He was mediocre at best as a rusher and
as a receiver, it was even worse. On four targets, he had three
drops, two of which led to interceptions.
There’s been coach speak this off-season from Doug Pederson
and offensive coordinator Press Taylor, suggesting Bigsby is going
to get another chance to fill the backup role to Etienne. This
makes him the front-runner for backup job, but this isn’t
guaranteed given the tape he put out last season. Keep an eye
on training camp reports to ensure Bigsby is in fact the RB2 before
drafting him.
Christian Kirk quietly had a productive season in 2023. In 11
healthy games, posted 761 receiving yards, a 17-game pace of 1,176
yards. He was also pacing to finish as fantasy’s WR22 if
he stayed healthy. A torn abdominal muscle limited him to just
12 games played.
Kirk did this while sharing the field with Calvin Ridley. He
had a 20.8 percent target share alongside Ridley, but it would
not be shocking to see Kirk push for the 25 percent threshold
this year as Ridley is no longer in Jacksonville. Given his lack
of red zone usage, it’s hard to see Kirk finishing as a
top-15 WR. But, he should be productive as Jacksonville’s
top target earner. Although he is not the league-winning archetype,
he seems to be a safe bet to pay off the price of WR30.
If a player in Jacksonville has the capability to be a league
winner this season, it’s Brian Thomas Jr. The Jaguars are
hopeful that he can be the dynamic, vertical threat in the offense.
This is the role that Thomas thrived in at LSU last season.
Thomas led the nation in receiving touchdowns last season, many
of them coming on deep plays. His longest touchdown was 86 yards
in a matchup against Army. He also finished the year with 11 receptions
of 30-plus yards.
He will mesh well with Lawrence as a quarterback, who has been
more than willing to push the ball downfield. Lawrence had 71
deep ball attempts (passes with 20-plus air yards) which was 5th
among QBs last season. If Lawrence and Thomas can develop a connection,
Thomas could be a tremendous fantasy asset.
Like Thomas, Gabe Davis is also known for his vertical skill
set. But at this point in time, it’s clear that the majority
of Davis’ routes are empty. He is not a strong target earner,
finishing last season with a 14.9 percent target share. He may
help the Jaguars’ offense, but will likely provide little
value to fantasy rosters.
This is the type of player where we know what we’re getting.
He will be wildly inconsistent but is worth a roster spot, especially
in best-ball formats, given his ability to occasionally find the
end zone. Davis is set up to disappoint managers once again in
2024 and it’s a better idea to take a shot on a more unknown
talent with greater upside.
Evan Engram was an integral piece of the Jaguars offense last
season. He worked the shallow portion of the field, acting as
Lawrence’s safety blanket. This role allowed Engram to break
the record for receptions by a TE in a single season, finishing
with 114 catches on 143 targets.
Heading into 2024, there has been discussion of Engram getting
more involved as a vertical receiver. This does nothing but help
his fantasy value by allowing him to produce chunk plays. But
his floor remains safe because he will once again be a focal point
of the offense, regularly seeing underneath targets. 140 targets
should not be expected, but somewhere in the range of 120 is completely
reasonable. This volume will allow him to be a valuable TE once
again, particularly in PPR leagues.
