The sheer number of fantasy-relevant wide receivers can make the
position tricky to navigate. With 60-plus names for drafters to
consider, parsing through each player's fantasy outlook is time-consuming
and difficult. At the end of the day, drafters must determine how
they value each receiver, within the wide receiver market and the
draft market as a whole.
Overvaluing a receiver and drafting them too early can be detrimental
to a fantasy team’s success. On the other hand, grabbing
the right sleeper or breakout candidate can create a roster that
is capable of contending for championships. The goal should be
to avoid the overvalued players while pinpointing and jumping
on the undervalued options.
After pouring through the wide receiver market, here are two
receivers to target and two receivers to avoid at their current
cost.
Note: ADP based on PPR scoring
Through two NFL seasons, Rashid Shaheed has found success as
a downfield threat. His 4.30 speed often paralyzes defensive backs
and he is able to blow right by them. Last season, Shaheed posted
an impressive seven receptions of 40-plus yards. He also made
contributions in the return game, taking a punt 76 yards to the
house.
But in his third NFL season, Shaheed is poised to break out in
a big way thanks to a new, expanded role within the Saints offense.
To this point, Shaheed has largely been a part-time player. Last
season, he played just 46 percent of snaps. But all reports from
Saints’ training camp indicate that Shaheed is expected
to be a full-time receiver in 2024. He was given the opportunity
to handle the majority of snaps on a few occasions last season
and succeeded in those opportunities. In six games where he played
at least 80 percent of snaps, Shaheed cleared 15 fantasy points
(PPR) three times.
Shaheed also stands to benefit from a significant scheme change
in New Orleans. Pete Carmichael’s archaic offense will be
replaced by Klint Kubiak’s scheme which should run play-action
and utilize motion at a higher rate. They ranked towards the bottom
of the league in usage of both of these concepts last season.
Kubiak’s offense should also create schemed looks for Shaheed
where he will get into space and have the chance to use his YAC
abilities.
The New Orleans offense as a whole could take a step forward
under Kubiak. This includes Shaheed who is a phenomenal investment
as the WR63 in drafts.
It seems that people are turned off by a disappointing year from
Diontae Johnson despite displaying the fact that he is still an
immensely talented receiver. Johnson was the per-game WR39 with
the Steelers and now with the Panthers, there’s reason to
believe Johnson can beat his ADP by a significant margin.
Although Johnson’s season was a failure in terms of his
fantasy production, he demonstrated that he still “has it”.
Johnson ranked highly in ESPN’s Open Score metric and graded
extremely well in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, indicating
that he is still an elite route runner. He also posted a career-high
in yards per route run at 2.04.
Johnson is in a new situation and indications from the Carolina
coaching staff and media point toward the passing game “flowing
through” Johnson. Last season, Adam Thielen, a far less
talented receiver, was the focal point of the passing attack and
he thrived. Through Week 6, Thielen was the WR3 as Carolina’s
target hog. He slowed down following the Panthers’ Week
7 bye, ultimately finishing as the WR17.
Johnson will have stiffer target competition than Thielen did
last year, but he is certainly capable of dominating the target
share market in Carolina. In this case, he would be a steal as
a WR4.
Jayden Reed was an exciting, dynamic talent last season but his
role within the Packers’ receiving corps will likely prevent
him from being a fantasy WR3.
Last season, Reed was on the field for less than 60 percent of
the Packers’ offensive snaps. His opportunity within the
offense is held back by his lack of usage in two-WR sets. Reed
was on the field for just three snaps in which two wide receivers
were used. Given the fact that Green Bay ran 11 personnel (3 WRs)
on 63 percent of snaps last year, we could be looking at a player
who is on the field for a maximum of 63 percent of snaps, barring
dramatic changes to Matt LaFleur’s offensive philosophy.
But early training camp reports indicate that nothing has changed
with Reed’s usage. He is still playing in a part-time capacity.
It will require incredible efficiency for Reed to produce at
WR3 levels if he’s on the field for 60 percent of snaps.
He is capable of this and did so last year thanks to absurd touchdown
numbers. But drafters should expect Reed to come back down to
earth regarding his touchdown production and have a hard time
returning value at cost.
Seeing that George Pickens is drafted as the WR29 makes it seem
that drafters are completely disregarding what Arthur Smith has
done to fantasy managers in recent years. If Pete Carmichael’s
offense is archaic, Smith’s offense belongs in the Paleolithic
era. During his time in Atlanta, Smith’s incessant need
to “establish the run” led to an offense that consistently
ranked at the bottom of the barrel in pass rate.
It doesn’t require much hard-hitting analysis to understand
that receivers in run-heavy offenses have a hard time succeeding
for fantasy purposes. In his three years in Atlanta, the Falcons’
top fantasy receiver finished as the WR38, WR31, and WR37. Two
of these seasons belong to Drake London, who is more talented
than Pickens in almost every facet of the game.
Yes, Pickens did thrive when Diontae Johnson was off the field
last year. But this was just a four-game sample. Drafters should
be wary of extrapolating a sample of this size. Players who are
propped up by success in a small stretch of games often lead to
disappointment. This will be the case with Pickens in 2024.
