12/20/07
One of the best tools that FF Today provides is the fantasy
football points vs. feature and, more specifically, the remaining
Strength of Schedule.
Using this feature, it is my hope to augment these features and
refine them even further. Over time, it should be proven in this
column that different styles of players score differently against
different opponents. For example, perhaps a possession receiver
makes for a better play against a certain defense as opposed to
a burner despite the fact that the defensive back guarding him is
considered slow. Given the high number of committee running backs
and teams without a clear-cut #1 receiver in the NFL, I feel this
analysis will help owners with roster decisions throughout this
season.
QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing;
6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10
yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)
Note: Teams that have a fantasy
relevant TE will be included.
PIT @ STL | DAL
@ CAR
Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio
Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season:
Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 37.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 34.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18/25.2/3.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7
 Passing
Game Thoughts: Unfortunately, given the way the Steelers
have played on the road this season, this game is far from a cakewalk.
It should be considering the Rams just allowed their seventh multi-TD
game to an opposing QB this season. Don’t be fooled though,
as St. Louis’ defense has shown some real improvement over
the course of the season. They haven’t allowed a QB to score
more than 19.1 points since Week 10 after surrendering at least
that number four times in the first nine games. However, the Rams
pass defense is not quite on par with the Steelers’ pass
offense. Last week vs. Jacksonville, Big Ben recorded his fourth
three-(or more) TD passing performance of the season. St. Louis
has routinely been beaten by the opponent’s deep threat,
making a healthy Holmes a nice #3 WR play. (Chad Johnson was able
to get just 60 yards on a bad field in Week 14, but Greg Jennings
posted 12.6 points last week and Roddy White tallied 20.6 in Week
13.) Ward has led the team’s WRs in fantasy points in each
of the past four weeks and will stay productive as long as he
is seeing nine or more targets a week (just as he has in the past
four games). Miller exploited a favorable matchup last week and
has another one this week vs. a defense that has permitted seven
TE scores.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been made quite clear that
the Steelers don’t have a problem running the ball in between
the 20s, but when it is time to score, it’s time to throw.
It’s hard to ever say the league’s leading rusher
is having a disappointing season, but it’s highly doubtful
anyone saw a 14-TD drop in Parker’s future when they drafted
him this summer. That said, he still makes for a solid #2 RB,
especially when you consider that he eclipsed 100 yards for the
eighth time this season. Conversely, St. Louis just finished holding
Ryan Grant to his lowest rushing total since becoming the starter
and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. The Rams are
stouter vs. the run than their 11th place ranking (allowing fantasy
points to opposing RBs) indicates, so Parker may not be a solid
bet for another 100. He should come close, however, and given
the fact that St. Louis has surrendered 12 rushing TDs, Parker
or Davenport should be able to cross the stripe this week.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 255 rush/3 TD/1 INT
Hines Ward: 85 rec/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 70 rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec/1 TD
Willie Parker: 90 rush/15 rec
Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Drew
Bennett/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 28.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 11.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.7/35.9/2.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.4
Passing Game Thoughts: At their best, the Rams are a team built
around Jackson that just happens to have the potential for a wonderful
passing game. With most of their linemen healthy last season,
that was more apparent. However, that doesn’t change the
notion that St. Louis will need to lean on Bulger, Holt and Bruce
in this game if they want to continue the Steelers’ slide.
Bulger certainly has the weapons to carry on the success Tom Brady
(4 TDs) and David Garrard (3 TDs) have experienced the past two
weeks, but unlike the other two QBs, the Rams would just as soon
play things closer to the vest considering the state of their
offensive line. And so it should go on Thursday against a defense
that had allowed just one 20-point performance to the QB position
prior to Week 14. Holt broke free for a TD vs. the Packers last
week and continued to score on an every other week basis. To me,
that just further solidifies his greatness considering he is dealing
with a knee injury and has seen all three QBs on the depth chart
in game action this season. Despite strong performances from opposing
#2 WRs the last two weeks, Bruce and Bennett should not be used
this week. Likewise, McMichael should not be used either. He has
been a safety value at best most of the season and there is no
indication that is going to change when the Rams will need to
keep as many blockers in as possible.
Running Game Thoughts: Two 100-yard rushing performances in four
weeks against the Steelers; 200-plus rushing yards in one game
vs. Pittsburgh…yikes! Those facts alone subtract some of
the luster from their usually dominant run defense and have to
give Jackson owners hope this week, that is, for any Jackson owner
who was able to withstand his five-game absence earlier in the
season. Given their offensive line issues, you had better believe
the Rams will give the Steelers run defense a firm test in order
to keep them off of Bulger. Speaking of the line, it has been
opening more holes for Jackson lately, as the stud RB has broke
a 40-yard run in each of the past four games. However, it would
be foolish to make any kind of rash judgments about the Steelers’
defense falling apart quite yet, so expect a bounce-back performance
from them, especially considering they have surrendered 12.4 points
or fewer to an individual RB in all but two games. However, Jackson’s
charm to a fantasy owner is his all-around game – so he
is still a solid play – but don’t expect a score from
him this week.
Projections:
Marc Bulger: 220 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 65 rec/1 TD
Isaac Bruce: 50 rec
Drew Bennett: 45 rec
Randy McMichael: 15 rec
Steven Jackson: 80 rush/40 rec/1 TD
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason
Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season:
Colts
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season:
Jags
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 25.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 26.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3/22.8/5.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.5
 Passing
Game Thoughts: Regardless of their performance vs. the
Eagles, the only thing that should keep anybody from this passing
game on your bench this week is Romo’s thumb. (If he is
unable to go for some reason, I’m not so sure that Brad
Johnson wouldn’t be a good play as well, although I would
expect much more running in such a case.) Carolina has surrendered
at least 16.5 points to the position in each of the past five
weeks, mostly against some of the elite fantasy QBs in the league
– which Romo is when healthy. WRs have experienced similar
success against the Panthers, allowing 10.8 points to at least
one WR in five straight games. Carolina has yet to see a TE quite
like Witten. Prior to giving up just 2.5 points to the position
the last two weeks, the combination of Donald Lee (16.9), Billy
Miller (9.2) and Delanie Walker (8.1) shredded the Panthers. Witten
should be in line for another standout performance
Running Game Thoughts: For whatever reason, teams just are unable
to bring it every week and, in my opinion, that happened last
week vs. Philly – inexcusable in any game, especially a
division game. In back-to-back games in which they could/should
have put away an inferior opponent early, the Cowboys RBs have
compiled just 29 total rushes. Their win aside last week vs. Seattle,
the Panthers still have trouble scoring while the Cowboys scored
under 24 points for the first time just last week. This should
mean a solid dose of the running game in the second half for Dallas,
meaning Barber should get off a one-week schnide. Carolina is
in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the RB
position – and given the fact that Dallas should have a
good working margin at the end of the third quarter – Barber
figures to be a solid #2, low-end #1 RB choice for his owners
this week.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 300 pass/3 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Terrell Owens: 90 rec/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 55 rec
Jason Witten: 80 rec/2 TD
Julius Jones: 35 rush/10 rec
Marion Barber: 80 rush/1 TD/35 rec
Matt Moore/Steve Smith/Drew Carter/Jeff
King
DeShaun Foster (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/20/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24
Passing Game Thoughts: As great of a story as it might be if
Moore becomes the second undrafted Oregon St. QB to make good
in the NFL this season, there is really nothing to get all that
excited about here. Smith’s last score was in Week 6 while
Carter should not be seeing the fantasy playing field during Championship
Week.
Running Game Thoughts: The last three opponents have all put
one RB over 14.4 points against the Cowboys. Unless the Panthers
commit more than half the load to DeAngelo Williams this week,
I don’t look for that streak to continue. It’s almost
impossible to tell what is going on with the backfield on a weekly
basis in Carolina, so just like the passing game, I would avoid
a running game that has failed to post consecutive double-digit
performances since Weeks 3-4.
Projections:
Matt Moore: 190 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Steve Smith: 60 rec
Drew Carter: 40 rec
Jeff King: 25 rec/1 TD
DeShaun Foster: 40 rush/15 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 60 rush/20 rec
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