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Doug Orth
Staff Writer
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Preseason Schedule Analysis: The Big Board
8/31/08

I’ll keep this short and sweet, but I would first like to extend a big “thank you” to Mike for letting me give this idea a chance to breathe on the site and to each of my readers for showing your appreciation with more complimentary e-mails than I will bother to count. I hope one of the two boards I’m about to share with you will allow you to get a head start on your competition and be the first of many steps you take to a fantasy title this season.

Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to forewarn each of my readers about the rankings and subsequent place on the board. Much as I explained with Plaxico Burress in Part III of the PSAs, I will push a player down my tiering board as well as my top 100 board if I cannot trust him to stay healthy all season. If you take the time to tear down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee.

Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be more consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous – if Dallas didn’t have such a good run-blocking line, I would be looking right at Marion Barber. I offer this explanation to make sure none of my readers will be misled by my rankings.

First, the “big board” for owners in PPR leagues…
 The "Big Board" - PPR Leagues
Overall Pos Rank Pos Player Bye Pt Total 14-16 Average
1 1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson 9 362 22.5 24.1
2 2 RB Brian Westbrook 7 341 17.7 22.7
3 3 RB Steven Jackson 5 333 16 22.2
4 4 RB Frank Gore 9 324 18.5 21.6
5 5 RB Adrian Peterson 8 290 22 19.3
6 1 WR Randy Moss 4 317 13.7 21.1
7 6 RB Marion Barber 10 298 8.8 19.9
8 1 QB Tom Brady 4 343 19.6 22.9
9 2 WR Terrell Owens 10 305 14.3 20.3
10 7 RB Larry Johnson 6 286 17.3 19.1
11 8 RB Clinton Portis 10 281 15.2 18.7
12 9 RB Joseph Addai 4 264 18 17.6
13 10 RB Reggie Bush 9 278 13.7 18.5
14 11 RB Ryan Grant 8 274 14.2 18.3
15 2 QB Drew Brees 9 323 21.5 21.5
16 12 RB Marshawn Lynch 6 254 15.2 16.9
17 3 QB Peyton Manning 4 329 23.5 21.9
18 4 QB Tony Romo 10 325 20.9 21.7
19 3 WR Marques Colston 9 292 11.5 19.5
20 4 WR Braylon Edwards 5 290 14.8 19.3
21 5 WR Larry Fitzgerald 7 287 13.3 19.1
22 6 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 8 285 12.3 19
23 7 WR Andre Johnson 8 271 8.5 18.1
24 8 WR Reggie Wayne 4 270 12.2 18
25 13 RB Thomas Jones 5 253 11.7 16.9
26 14 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 7 239 12.3 15.9
27 15 RB Jamal Lewis 5 222 12.3 14.8
28 9 WR Calvin Johnson 4 255 13.8 17
29 10 WR Brandon Marshall 8 261 11.8 18.6
30 11 WR Steve Smith 9 255 10.8 17
31 12 WR Wes Welker 4 257 10.7 17.1
32 13 WR Plaxico Burress 4 270 11.2 18
33 14 WR Marvin Harrison 4 255 11.3 17
34 16 RB Willis McGahee 10 257 14.3 17.1
35 15 WR Anquan Boldin 7 264 15.2 17.6
36 16 WR Torry Holt 5 250 12.2 16.7
37 1 TE Jason Witten 10 238 9.3 15.9
38 17 WR Jerricho Cotchery 5 236 9.7 15.7
39 18 WR Roy Williams 4 235 11.8 15.7
40 19 WR Laveranues Coles 5 229 8.7 15.3
41 20 WR Santonio Holmes 6 220 8.3 14.7
42 17 RB Darren McFadden 5 219 9.3 14.6
43 18 RB Matt Forte 8 219 11.2 14.6
44 19 RB Jonathan Stewart 9 207 10.3 13.8
45 20 RB Brandon Jacobs 4 207 12.8 13.8
46 5 QB Carson Palmer 8 294 17.8 19.6
47 21 RB Willie Parker 6 174 8.2 11.6
48 6 QB Donovan McNabb 7 296 21 19.7
49 21 WR Donald Driver 8 217 8.2 14.5
50 2 TE Kellen Winslow 5 215 9.5 14.3
51 22 WR Santana Moss 10 215 7.7 14.3
52 3 TE Antonio Gates 9 210 7.8 14
53 23 WR Chad Johnson 8 213 9.8 14.2
54 24 WR Dwayne Bowe 6 212 11.3 14.1
55 4 TE Tony Gonzalez 6 214 10.7 14.3
56 25 WR Chris Chambers 9 212 7.2 14.1
57 7 QB Ben Roethlisberger 6 265 16.3 17.7
58 22 RB Ricky Williams 4 197 9.5 13.1
59 23 RB Earnest Graham 10 196 10.5 13.1
60 24 RB Chris Perry 8 195 14.8 13
61 25 RB Kevin Smith 4 191 9.2 12.7
62 26 RB Selvin Young 8 191 9.2 12.7
63 27 RB Michael Turner 7 187 7.2 12.5
64 28 RB Chris Johnson 6 185 6.7 12.3
65 29 RB Rashard Mendenhall 6 175 8 11.7
66 26 WR Hines Ward 6 208 7.7 13.9
67 27 WR Lee Evans 6 208 8.5 13.9
68 30 RB Edgerrin James 7 166 9 11.1
69 5 TE Jeremy Shockey 9 200 10.9 13.3
70 31 RB Fred Taylor 7 158 9.8 10.5
71 32 RB DeAngelo Williams 9 174 7.8 11.6
72 33 RB LenDale White 6 160 9.8 10.7
73 34 RB Laurence Maroney 4 154 7.2 10.3
74 8 QB Jay Cutler 8 269 17.3 17.9
75 9 QB Derek Anderson 5 242 16.3 16.1
76 28 WR Nate Burleson 4 206 9.2 13.7
77 29 WR Derrick Mason 10 202 5.7 13.5
78 30 WR Greg Jennings 8 190 8.8 12.7
79 35 RB Maurice Morris 4 177 9.7 11.8
80 36 RB Ronnie Brown 4 163 10.7 10.9
81 31 WR Joey Galloway 10 194 8.8 12.9
82 10 QB Marc Bulger 5 274 17.5 18.3
83 37 RB Julius Jones 4 151 5.3 10.1
84 32 WR Bernard Berrian 8 174 10.8 11.6
85 6 TE Chris Cooley 10 172 8.5 11.5
86 7 TE Dallas Clark 4 168 9.2 11.2
87 38 RB Chester Taylor 8 142 10.3 9.47
88 11 QB Matt Hasselbeck 4 250 18.5 16.7
89 12 QB Eli Manning 4 264 17.7 17.6
90 13 QB Kurt Warner 7 261 20.3 17.4
91 14 QB Jon Kitna 4 257 16.9 17.1
92 15 QB Brett Favre 5 244 15.7 16.3
93 16 QB David Garrard 7 254 11.5 16.9
94 17 QB Aaron Rodgers 8 235 15.4 0.53
95 18 QB Jake Delhomme 9 232 11.8 15.5
96 19 QB Matt Schaub 8 231 12.7 0.53
97 20 QB Vince Young 6 256 18.6 17.1
98 33 WR Roddy White 7 155 8.3 10.3
99 39 RB Tim Hightower 7 119 3.8 7.93
100 40 RB Justin Fargas 5 138 5.2 9.2

And now for the non-PPR leagues…

 The "Big Board" - Non-PPR Leagues
Overall Pos Rank Pos Player Bye Pt Total 14-16 Average
1 1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson 9 307 22.5 20.47
2 2 RB Steven Jackson 5 273 16.0 18.20
3 3 RB Brian Westbrook 7 263 17.7 17.53
4 4 RB Adrian Peterson 8 255 22.0 17.00
5 1 WR Randy Moss 4 227 13.7 15.13
6 5 RB Marion Barber 10 243 8.8 16.20
7 6 RB Joseph Addai 4 224 18.0 14.93
8 1 QB Tom Brady 4 343 19.6 22.87
9 7 RB Frank Gore 9 249 18.5 16.60
10 8 RB Clinton Portis 10 231 15.2 15.40
11 2 WR Terrell Owens 10 225 14.3 15.00
12 9 RB Marshawn Lynch 6 218 15.2 14.53
13 10 RB Ryan Grant 8 229 14.2 15.27
14 11 RB Larry Johnson 6 236 17.3 15.73
15 3 WR Marques Colston 9 199 11.5 13.27
16 2 QB Drew Brees 9 323 21.5 21.53
17 3 QB Peyton Manning 4 329 23.5 21.93
18 4 WR Braylon Edwards 5 205 14.8 13.67
19 4 QB Tony Romo 10 325 20.9 21.67
20 5 WR Larry Fitzgerald 7 192 13.3 12.80
21 6 WR Reggie Wayne 4 183 12.2 12.20
22 12 RB Thomas Jones 5 223 11.7 14.87
23 7 WR Andre Johnson 8 181 8.5 12.07
24 8 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh 8 185 12.3 12.33
25 13 RB Willis McGahee 10 212 14.3 14.13
26 14 RB Maurice Jones-Drew 7 194 12.3 12.93
27 15 RB Jamal Lewis 5 192 12.3 12.80
28 16 RB Reggie Bush 9 193 13.7 12.87
29 9 WR Calvin Johnson 4 182 13.8 12.13
30 10 WR Steve Smith 9 177 10.8 13.62
31 11 WR Brandon Marshall 8 176 11.8 12.57
32 12 WR Plaxico Burress 4 198 11.2 13.20
33 13 WR Anquan Boldin 7 180 15.2 12.00
34 14 WR Torry Holt 5 162 12.2 10.80
35 15 WR Marvin Harrison 4 174 11.3 11.60
36 16 WR Wes Welker 4 157 10.7 10.47
37 17 RB Jonathan Stewart 9 177 10.3 11.80
38 18 RB Brandon Jacobs 4 177 12.8 11.80
39 19 RB Darren McFadden 5 179 9.3 11.93
40 20 RB Matt Forte 8 174 11.2 11.60
41 17 WR Santonio Holmes 6 155 8.3 10.33
42 1 TE Jason Witten 10 150 9.3 10.00
43 18 WR Roy Williams 4 160 11.8 10.67
44 2 TE Kellen Winslow 5 143 9.5 9.53
45 21 RB Michael Turner 7 162 7.2 10.80
46 5 QB Carson Palmer 8 294 17.8 19.60
47 3 TE Antonio Gates 9 138 7.8 9.20
48 6 QB Donovan McNabb 7 296 21.0 19.73
49 7 QB Ben Roethlisberger 6 265 16.3 17.67
50 22 RB Earnest Graham 10 161 10.5 10.73
51 23 RB Fred Taylor 7 143 9.8 9.53
52 24 RB Willie Parker 6 149 8.2 9.93
53 19 WR Jerricho Cotchery 5 146 9.7 9.73
54 20 WR Laveranues Coles 5 149 8.7 9.93
55 21 WR Chad Johnson 8 143 9.8 9.53
56 22 WR Dwayne Bowe 6 137 11.3 9.13
57 25 RB Selvin Young 8 151 9.2 10.07
58 26 RB Laurence Maroney 4 139 7.2 9.27
59 23 WR Donald Driver 8 137 8.2 9.13
60 24 WR Santana Moss 10 145 7.7 9.67
61 4 TE Jeremy Shockey 9 132 10.9 8.80
62 5 TE Tony Gonzalez 6 134 10.7 8.93
63 25 WR Chris Chambers 9 142 7.2 9.47
64 26 WR Lee Evans 6 133 8.5 8.87
65 27 RB LenDale White 6 144 9.3 9.60
66 27 WR Hines Ward 6 138 7.7 9.20
67 28 RB Kevin Smith 4 156 9.2 10.40
68 29 RB Chris Perry 8 175 14.8 11.67
69 30 RB Edgerrin James 7 138 9.0 9.20
70 31 RB Ricky Williams 4 162 9.5 10.80
71 32 RB Chris Johnson 6 150 7.5 10.00
72 33 RB DeAngelo Williams 9 149 7.8 9.93
73 34 RB Ronnie Brown 4 138 10.7 9.20
74 28 WR Greg Jennings 8 130 8.8 8.67
75 6 TE Dallas Clark 4 108 9.2 7.20
76 7 TE Chris Cooley 10 112 8.5 7.47
77 35 RB Rashard Mendenhall 6 142 8.0 9.47
78 29 WR Nate Burleson 4 146 9.2 9.73
79 30 WR Bernard Berrian 8 121 10.8 8.07
80 31 WR Joey Galloway 10 134 8.8 8.93
81 36 RB Maurice Morris 4 144 9.7 9.60
82 8 QB Jay Cutler 8 269 17.3 17.93
83 9 QB Derek Anderson 5 242 16.3 16.13
84 10 QB Marc Bulger 5 274 17.5 18.27
85 11 QB Eli Manning 4 264 17.7 17.60
86 37 RB Julius Jones 4 123 5.3 8.20
87 38 RB Chester Taylor 8 112 10.3 7.47
88 32 WR Patrick Crayton 10 106 6.5 7.07
89 39 RB Justin Fargas 5 118 5.2 7.87
90 8 TE Todd Heap 10 109 6.5 7.27
91 12 QB Kurt Warner 7 261 20.3 17.40
92 13 QB Matt Hasselbeck 4 250 18.5 16.53
93 33 WR Josh Morgan/Bryant Johnson 9 126 10.2 8.40
94 34 WR Derrick Mason 10 117 5.7 7.80
95 35 WR Reggie Brown 7 112 7.3 7.47
96 40 RB Tim Hightower 7 94 3.8 6.27
97 14 QB David Garrard 7 254 11.5 16.67
98 15 QB Brett Favre 5 244 15.7 16.27
99 16 QB Jon Kitna 4 257 16.9 17.13
100 41 RB Chris Taylor 8 130 10.8 8.67

Given Saturday’s cuts, I essentially plugged Chris Perry into Rudi Johnson’s old spot for both PPR and non-PPR leagues. The risk that comes with his injury may be counterbalanced by his ability to catch the ball and make the explosive plays that Johnson really never gave the Bengals.

Obviously, Chad Johnson is ranked about as low here as he is on this site (or any other one for that matter). While Kellen Winslow played with a similar injury last year, he also did not make a living of leaping for all that many high passes either. At this point, given the reported severity of his injury and the nature in which he plays the game, I would view him as an extremely high-risk #2 WR and no more. (Then again, he is feeling good enough to get his name changed, so maybe the injury isn’t so bad after all…)

If Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart are both available late and roster limits are such that a drafter can keep three QBs on the roster, do whatever you can to select both. HC Ken Whisenhunt seems intent on keeping Leinart in the QB conversation even though he named Warner the starter, but by holding both QBs on your team, you should be able get #1 QB production from a late draft pick, given the quality of Arizona’s receiving corps. In this scenario, his owners will be protecting themselves against the inevitable Warner injury and/or Leinart letdown.

I feel an additional explanation should be provided for Josh Morgan and Bryant Johnson. Since HC Mike Nolan (or OC Mike Martz) has yet to name a starter at the spot that Torry Holt long occupied in Martz’s offense, the player that ends up becoming the starter should be thought of as no lower than a #4 WR to start the season with very high upside potential. I’m still banking on Morgan winning the job, but if the two receivers end up sharing the job, they both could end up in the 50-catch neighborhood.

Lastly, Chris Taylor is my wild-card to wind up with the most production out of the Houston Texans’ backfield. The coaching staff has continuously raved about him since last season. If/when Ahman Green succumbs to injury, I would expect Taylor to be the biggest beneficiary, with rookie Steve Slaton taking about 30% of the carries and most of the third-down work.




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