| Ignorance Can Be Bliss - Part 2
 12/3/09
 
 Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy 
              owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes 
              hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat 
              man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against 
              a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense 
              brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes 
              the name of the game for the opposing team.
 In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure 
                to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to 
                the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a 
                conclusion about a player too quickly is much like trying to blitz 
                Peyton Manning – dangerous and painful. However, coming 
                to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than 
                your opponents is considered foresight. Fantasy owners can be 
                a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak 
                can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to 
                make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the 
                NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing 
                scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become 
                a smart blitzer, so to speak. Depending on how serious you take your fantasy football teams, fantasy 
              owners can feel almost as bruised and battered emotionally at this 
              point of the season as some running backs do physically. Draft-day 
              visions of being the one owner in your league who would not feel 
              the bite of the injury bug quickly fade into the reality of counting 
              on a resurgent Chris 
              Brown to fill in as your team's RB2 spot or hoping that the 
              New Orleans Saints will jump out to a big enough lead each week 
              that Mike 
              Bell can approach 20 carries.
 For those 
                of you who checked out the column last week, you already know 
                I've decided to spend the last two weeks of the fantasy regular 
                season on trying to provide each of my readers with some idea 
                of where all of the league's usable fantasy running backs stand 
                for the remainder of the season. For all the good people who didn't 
                read the first part of this column last week (shame on you, by 
                the way), I covered the first 16 teams in alphabetical order last 
                week and will cover the other half of the league this week. Long 
                story short, I've chosen to dissect each team RB situation into 
                four parts: what we knew before the season (Past), what we know 
                now (Present), what it all means going forward (Future) and what 
                "fantasy class" owners should expect each RB's production 
                to fall in for the remainder of the season (Fantasy role for the 
                remainder of the season).
 MIA | MIN | NE 
                | NO | NYG | NYJ 
                | OAK | PHI
 PIT | STL |  
                SD | SF | SEA | TB 
                | TEN | WAS
 
 Miami Dolphins Past: Ronnie 
                Brown and Ricky 
                Williams entered the season in a pretty even RBBC. The problem 
                was, very few fantasy owners knew this and - for the ones that 
                did - even less anticipated any lengthy contribution from the 
                32-year-old Williams. HC Tony Sparano made several mentions throughout 
                the summer about how Brown was in the best shape of his career, 
                so with Brown at age 27 and in his second year following ACL surgery, 
                the outlook appeared rosy for Brown to eventually fight off Williams 
                and dominate the touches on a team highly committed to running 
                the ball.
 
  
                Present: Williams missed the memo on how his speed was supposed 
                to decrease as one gets older. The ageless one initially became 
                a threat out of the "Wildcat" sweep play, so much so 
                that he started taking some of Brown's touches out of the set. 
                Williams even contributed more as a receiver than Brown; this 
                after Sparano reportedly spent a great deal of time in the offseason 
                figuring out ways to get Brown more involved in the passing game. 
                However, with nearly 40 touches/game to spread out among two backs, 
                the Dolphins essentially had two feature backs, so both backs 
                actually served their purpose well. That all changed when Brown 
                suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot in Week 10 vs. 
                Tampa Bay.  Did you get that memo Ricky? 
 Future: It goes without saying that Williams has went from fantasy 
                draft afterthought to top-10 RB material this season. Lex Hilliard 
                would step in if Williams' body can't take the additional pounding, 
                but he seems to be holding up well at the moment despite completing 
                his third game in just 14 days. The remainder of the schedule 
                doesn't shape up particularly well for Williams' potential fantasy 
                contributions (Patriots, Jaguars, Titans, Texans), but he's still 
                going to be almost impossible to sit simply because he's a near-lock 
                for 20 carries behind one of the league's best run-blocking lines.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Williams (RB1 in 
                PPR and non-PPR)
 Minnesota Vikings After some early-season passing game contributions from Chester 
                Taylor, Adrian 
                Peterson has almost made his third-down complement an afterthought. 
                Peterson has already eclipsed his career high in receptions and 
                is one TD away from matching his career-high in rushing scores. 
                Along with Maurice Jones-Drew and a few other RBs that we will 
                get to later, Peterson is one of the handful plug-and-play RBs 
                in fantasy. New England Patriots Past: Annually one of the league's most unpredictable backfields 
                for fantasy owners, the Patriots appeared to have four RBs who 
                could each make small contributions when the season started. Fred 
                Taylor looked to have the upper hand over Laurence Maroney for 
                early-down carries while Kevin Faulk would continue his role as 
                one of the league's best third-down RBs. Sammy Morris was a wildcard 
                at first, but the Patriots cleared things up with him early on 
                in the season by using him mostly as a fullback. 
 Present: Taylor jumped out early on the competition, highlighted 
                by a rare 100-yard rushing performance by a Patriot RB in Week 
                3 vs. Atlanta. Of course, wouldn't you know that after the 33-year-old 
                had almost dropped his "Fragile Fred" tag from his days 
                with the Jaguars, he would fall victim to an ankle injury the 
                next week? This led to the ascension of Morris, who gave his owners 
                an unexpected two-week contribution before he was lost to a knee 
                injury. This sequence of events led the Pats to Maroney, who has 
                promptly shed his own labels of being "soft" and "fragile" 
                to score in six straight contests and emerge as the closest thing 
                to a feature back New England has enjoyed since Corey Dillon was 
                acquired several years ago. While Taylor remains out, he has not 
                been put on IR yet and Morris saw action for the first time in 
                Week 12. Faulk has remained in his usual role.
 
 Future: Any veteran owner who has been invested in the Patriots’ 
                backfield during the Bill Belichick era knows that nothing is 
                set in stone here. If Belichick has options to go to, he won't 
                hesitate to use them. It's safe to assume that if Maroney were 
                to have a two-fumble game in the near future, he would quickly 
                go from the penthouse to the outhouse with Morris likely being 
                the beneficiary. (Keep in mind that while Maroney is easily playing 
                his best football since his rookie year, he has fumbled in three 
                straight games.) In other words, Maroney's grasp on the lead-back 
                role may be only as firm as his ball-handling over the final few 
                weeks of the regular season.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Maroney (RB2 in 
                PPR and non-PPR), Morris (RB4 in both formats), Faulk (RB4 in 
                both formats)
 New Orleans Saints Past: All throughout the summer, 
                Pierre Thomas 
                was skyrocketing up fantasy draft cheatsheets. In an explosive 
                offense and with Deuce 
                McAllister no longer a threat, it was only a matter of time 
                before the undrafted RB from Illinois would become the next big 
                thing. After all, Reggie 
                Bush had his shot at a bigger workload and didn't exactly 
                thrive in that role. However, a seemingly innocent preseason knee 
                sprain that was only supposed to sideline Thomas for about a week 
                kept him away from game action until Week 3 of the regular season, 
                opening the door wide open for Mike 
                Bell to become a factor.
 Present: Of course, Bell promptly opened the door right back for 
                Thomas by sitting out three weeks with a knee sprain of his own. 
                Needless to say, this backfield situation hasn't exactly played 
                out like fantasy owners expected in the preseason. Right now, 
                Thomas is the safest play of the three Saints backs because he 
                is a: 1) more natural and durable runner than Bush and 2) a better 
                receiver than Bell.
 
 Future: In most situations, the aforementioned description would 
                be that of a surefire fantasy starter and unquestioned lead back. 
                But in the Saints' offensive attack, Bush continues to a viable 
                play in PPR leagues despite his lack of touches because he always 
                seems to be put into favorable scoring positions - for his real 
                team as well as his fantasy owners - while Bell is worth a play 
                if/when New Orleans jumps out on its competition early on as he 
                is the team's "closer". Thus, it appears the combination 
                of having too many mouths to feed and the aggressive nature of 
                the Saints' offense will keep Thomas from becoming a huge weekly 
                contributor for fantasy owners. However, the very reason that 
                he won't be a weekly standout is the same reason he will be consistent 
                - there is no way a defense can play against the New Orleans’ 
                offense and key on only or two players.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Thomas (RB2 in PPR 
                and non-PPR), Bell (RB3 in non-PPR, RB4 in PPR), Bush (RB4 in 
                non-PPR, RB3 in PPR)
 New York Giants Past: Coming off a season in 
                which Giants RBs accounted for 2,998 total yards and 20 total 
                TDs, great things were expected from this backfield. Ahmad Bradshaw 
                was expected to step up into the role Derrick Ward so capably 
                manned in 2008 while Danny Ware filled in Bradshaw's old spot. 
                After scoring 15 TDs and crossing the 1,000-yard in just 13 games, 
                Brandon Jacobs was a virtual lock for another 10-TD campaign. 
                The only thing keeping Jacobs from being a sure-fire first-rounder 
                in 2009 was his propensity to get hurt and miss a few games.
 
  
                  What's happened to the Giants running game?  Present: If there was a RB 
                situation that completely went off script this season than the 
                Giants this season, I have no idea who else would be in the running. 
                Bradshaw and Ware have dealt with injuries all season long while 
                Jacobs has yet to miss a game. The schedule, which included four 
                games each against the run defense-challenged divisions of AFC 
                West and NFC South, figured to be easier than last season's slate 
                against the AFC North and NFC West. And with one of the league's 
                best run-blocking units (FB Madison 
                Hedgecock included) intact from last season and the offensive 
                line sporting a single game missed along its front five (RT Kareem 
                McKenzie sat out Week 7 vs. Arizona), it is a complete mystery 
                as to how or why New York has only seen a RB go over the 100-yard 
                mark twice and may not even get a single RB over 1,000 yards this 
                season. What we do know is Jacobs spent the first half of the 
                season running very tentative while Bradshaw's injuries have curtailed 
                his production of late. The Giants' defense has suffered a number 
                of injuries - which has forced the team to pass the ball a bit 
                more - but more than anything, New York doesn't look like it believes 
                it is a running team anymore.
 Future: The good news is that 
                with 34 carries (and 40 total touches) over the last three weeks, 
                Jacobs should be plenty fresh down the stretch. The bad news is 
                that New York faces all three divisional foes over the next three 
                weeks - all good run defenses - so this team just may not find 
                its identity again this season. It's hard to understand how a 
                team so proficient at running the ball last season fell off the 
                map so quickly, but with its lackluster performance vs. Denver, 
                I don't expect the Giants to find the answers they are looking 
                for this year. It may cause Jacobs & Co. to slip in fantasy 
                drafts next fall, but for 2008, Jacobs or Bradshaw cannot be considered 
                automatic starts anymore.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the 
                season: Jacobs (RB3 in PPR and non-PPR), Bradshaw (RB3 
                in both formats, when healthy), Ware (RB4 in both formats, with 
                potential to move up to RB3 in PPR if Bradshaw cannot get healthy)
 New York Jets Past: The 2009 Jets appeared ready to emulate the 2008 Ravens 
                - mostly by design as new HC Rex Ryan felt the run-heavy approach 
                his former team took would work well with a similarly talented 
                stable of RBs and a rookie QB. Rookie Shonn Greene was injured 
                early in the preseason, setting him behind the rest of the Jets 
                RBs in his quest to secure the "closer" role Ryan had 
                in mind for him on Draft Day. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington 
                were slated to split carries in the beginning, but it seemed only 
                a matter of time before the electric Washington would overtake 
                the 31-year-old Jones. In fact, Jones' demise seemed to be such 
                a sure thing that it was only a question of when – not if 
                - Greene would overtake him in the lineup. As a result, the veteran 
                spent a fair amount of the offseason wondering if he was on the 
                trade block.
 Present: Jones and Washington pretty much split the backfield 
                work right down the middle, up until Week 7 when Washington suffered 
                a gruesome double open fracture to his right leg on his first 
                carry vs. Oakland. The injury should have allowed for Greene to 
                move right into a split role with Jones, but a fumble in the rookie’s 
                next game - and ineptitude as a receiver - landed the rookie into 
                a strict relief role behind Jones.
 
 Future: There's little reason to believe the current setup is 
                going to change anytime soon, barring an injury to Jones. The 
                Jets aren't good enough on offense to jump out to huge leads in 
                order to allow Greene to see regular work, so expect Jones to 
                extend his six-game streak of seeing at least 21 carries. Jones 
                isn’t contributing much as a receiver, but he has yet to 
                fumble - which means as much as anything to a defensive-oriented 
                coach such as Ryan. While he may see a slight decrease in carries 
                as the Jets are on short rest in Week 13, his next three matchups 
                (Bills, Bucs, Falcons) bode very well for him. However, the Colts 
                loom in Week 16, which may be good or bad depending on whether 
                or not Indianapolis has already clinched home field.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Jones (RB1 in PPR 
                and non-PPR), Greene (RB4 in both formats)
 Oakland Raiders Past: A top-10 rushing team 
                a season ago, optimism was somewhat high for that part of the 
                offense after HC Tom Cable declared Darren 
                McFadden the starter late in the preseason. That hope quickly 
                dissipated once teams realized QB JaMarcus Russell had actually 
                regressed as a signal-caller and did not need to honor any part 
                of the passing game, even TE Zach Miller . McFadden and LG Robert 
                Gallery (two of the more important cogs in the Raiders' run game) 
                succumbed to injuries early on, essentially flatlining the slight 
                pulse the Oakland offense had before the injuries.
 Present: With QB Bruce Gradkowski 
                under center, teams now have to at least some part of the passing 
                game. Justin 
                Fargas, a coaches' favorite, used McFadden's absence to move 
                up the RB ranks in Oakland by outperforming Michael 
                Bush and give the team some semblance of an offensive threat. 
                With Gallery and McFadden back and healthy, Oakland is just now 
                getting a chance to see what it has to work with...finally.
 
 Future: There's a reason why teams like the Raiders rarely compete 
                with the elite teams of the league. They draft poorly more often 
                than not and when they do get an athlete that is also a decent 
                football player, they take too long in adapting their offense 
                to cater to his talents. The jury is still out on McFadden as 
                a RB - and his ability to stay healthy - but the second-year pro 
                made his name as an all-around talent (rushing, receiving and 
                passing). I obviously don't endorse a full-time move to QB, but 
                as someone who helped the "Wildcat" become a trendy 
                offensive attack, how can someone with this much talent be confined 
                to sharing carries with Fargas? Thanksgiving Day marked the first 
                time I actually saw the Raiders line up McFadden multiple times 
                out wide. As a result, I'm interested to see how this plays out 
                the rest of the season, but the Cowboys’ game may have been 
                the first of many steps for the Raiders offense in which they 
                try to identify mismatches for McFadden. It's a lot to ask for 
                from the Raiders’ offense, but I have to believe at some 
                point some coach on their staff realizes it is all right to be 
                creative with McFadden.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Fargas (RB3 in non-PPR, 
                RB4 in PPR), McFadden (RB3 in both formats), Bush (RB4 at best 
                until Fargas and/or McFadden gets injured)
 Philadelphia Eagles Past: There didn't appear to 
                be much doubt about a few things in the Eagles' backfield at the 
                beginning of the season. Brian 
                Westbrook would start and be insanely productive for the 10-12 
                games he could stay healthy. Unlike previous years when Correll 
                Buckhalter was all that Philadelphia had in reserve, the Eagles 
                protected themselves with a second-round draft selection of LeSean 
                McCoy, who hypothetically would assume Westbrook's role whenever 
                the veteran needed to sit out. Leonard 
                Weaver was signed with the hope he could address the Eagles' 
                annual struggles in short yardage and the red zone.
 Present: It took all of two weeks into the regular season for 
                Westbrook to miss a game due to an ankle injury, allowing McCoy 
                to show his wares in a Week 3 blowout win over Kansas City. Westbrook 
                used his two weeks off to get himself right for Week 5 and gave 
                his owners a vintage 141-total-yard performance in a Week 6 loss 
                to the Raiders. However, his season took a turn for the worse 
                when he suffered a concussion the next week vs. the Redskins. 
                The Eagles did well to hold Westbrook out two full weeks after 
                the incident, but another blow to the head left in Week 10 vs. 
                the Chargers has left his season in doubt. In his absence, McCoy 
                has shown himself to be a fine replacement for Westbrook, but 
                it is obvious the Eagles are leery about trusting him with too 
                much. Whether HC Andy Reid is concerned about overworking the 
                rookie or worried that McCoy can't be trusted in blitz pickup/short 
                yardage (or a combination of both), he is merely just the lead 
                back for the Eagles right now, not the feature back that some 
                owners anticipated he might be in the preseason whenever Westbrook 
                was forced to miss a game.
 
 Future: Westbrook's status is still very much up in the air, but 
                the general consensus seems to be that he is out through at least 
                Week 14. There also seems to be a fair amount of belief that he 
                has played his last game as an Eagle. Considering his injury history, 
                age and contract status, it is a definite possibility. However, 
                regarding his status, the fact of the matter is that we simply 
                do not know; not enough is known about concussions to call a Grade 
                1 concussion a two-week injury for every player or a Grade 3 concussion 
                a season-ending injury for every player. As for McCoy, the Eagles 
                have allowed him to hit the 20-touch mark in each of the past 
                two weeks, so while Philadelphia doesn't quite see him as an every-down 
                back quite yet, he should be starting for most fantasy teams for 
                as long as Westbrook remains out.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: McCoy (RB2 in PPR 
                and non-PPR as long as Westbrook remains out; if Westbrook returns, 
                he becomes a RB3 in both formats), Westbrook (RB3 in both formats, 
                assuming he even returns)
 Pittsburgh Steelers Past: Long one of fantasy football's 
                best places to look for a dependable RB, Pittsburgh was not drawing 
                a lot of attention from owners this summer. While the reports 
                of Willie 
                Parker looking as fast as he did in his heyday sounded good, 
                something didn't quite feel right about that. Additionally, there 
                was very little reason to believe in Parker considering how porous 
                the Steelers' running game was in 2008, mostly due to an inexperienced 
                offensive line (in terms of playing together as a unit). Second-year 
                RB Rashard 
                Mendenhall was quickly headed down the path of being a draft 
                bust after a rookie season which was cut short by injury and a 
                supposed unwillingness to “pay the price” to be a pro runner. 
                This came one season after his OC, Bruce Arians, compared him 
                favorably to a rookie he coached as a Colts assistant years ago, 
                Edgerrin James.
 Present: A funny thing happened on the Steelers' defense of their 
                Super Bowl title. Parker suffered the dreaded turf toe injury 
                following his best performance of the season in Week 3 vs. the 
                Bengals - a game in which Mendenhall was deactivated for failing 
                to pay attention to detail in practice among other things. This 
                opened the door for the second-year back to prove to his team 
                he was worth a first-round pick in 2008...and prove it he did. 
                Even though the biggest revelation of the Steelers' running game 
                - one that has seemingly went completely unnoticed by all the 
                football analysts - was the turnaround the offensive line made 
                in the Week 3 game vs. the Bengals, Mendenhall exploited the gaping 
                holes his line gave him vs. the Chargers in Week 4, running with 
                more determination than ever and stealing the starting job away 
                from Parker in the process.
 
 Future: After landing in the doghouse early in the season, Mendenhall 
                has quickly built up a lot of good will with his coaches and fantasy 
                owners. Amazingly, he hasn't scored a rushing TD over his last 
                five games, but is contributing in the passing game more than 
                people realize and running with the same authority that he did 
                against San Diego. It's too early to say where he should go in 
                fantasy drafts next season, but it is very likely that Pittsburgh 
                will cut ties with Parker in the offseason and let Mendenhall 
                and Mewelde Moore assume the vast majority of touches in its backfield 
                going forward, with Mendenhall obviously serving as the featured 
                back.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Mendenhall (RB1 
                in non-PPR and PPR), Parker (RB4 in both formats), Moore (RB4 
                in both formats)
 San Diego Chargers Past: After a long offseason 
                of will they/won't they with LaDainian 
                Tomlinson, the Chargers elected to hold onto to the best RB 
                in franchise history for at least one more season while placing 
                the franchise tag on his backup, Darren 
                Sproles. Shortly after Tomlinson was assured he would remain 
                a Charger, HC Norv Turner stated that Tomlinson was looking as 
                good as he had in some time and predicted 320 carries for him. 
                While it was unclear how Sproles would be used, it was pretty 
                obvious that he was looking at an expanded role, merely given 
                the fact he was making in excess of $6.6 M this season. Considering 
                how often Tomlinson was falling victim to injury, it was a smart 
                investment, albeit a very pricey one.
 Present: It took only about a handful of carries for the investment 
                in Sproles to look like a good decision for the Chargers. After 
                making a fair fantasy contribution in Week 1, LT missed the next 
                two weeks with a sprained ankle, which only fanned the flames 
                suggesting that LT had “lost a step” and was “injury-prone”. 
                Since LT returned in Week 4, Sproles has seen his on-field contributions 
                cut drastically while Tomlinson has rediscovered a portion of 
                the fantasy production he used to provide his fantasy owners after 
                scoring seven times over the last five contests. While he isn't 
                as young and elusive as he used to be, Tomlinson is still quicker 
                than most RBs his age but is still wrongfully shouldering more 
                blame for the Chargers' running game woes than he should. When 
                two backs of the caliber of Tomlinson and Sproles are both being 
                held well below the league YPC average, it says volumes about 
                how poor the run-blocking is, even though it has improved in recent 
                weeks. LT's 3.4 season YPC is actually a bit better than Sproles' 
                3.3 YPC, which is surprising when one considers how often Sproles 
                is pronounced as the better RB at this point of both of their 
                careers.
 
 Future: The improvement the 
                Chargers' offensive line has made in recent weeks has helped salvage 
                LT's fantasy value somewhat, even if his numbers aren't as eye-popping 
                as they used to be. However, that could change for the fantasy 
                playoffs, when San Diego faces some tough defenses in the Cowboys 
                (Week 14), Bengals (Week 15) and Titans (Week 16). Looking forward 
                to 2010, it's conceivable the Chargers could allow both LT and 
                Sproles to hit the market. If that scenario plays out, it would 
                be a shame for a team that once employed an in-his-prime LT, Michael 
                Turner and Sproles. One has to question how San Diego has allowed 
                so much talent (Drew Brees comes to mind, Shawne Merriman may 
                leave in the offseason as well) to leave without getting anything 
                but compensatory draft picks in return.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Tomlinson (RB2 in 
                non-PPR and PPR), Sproles (RB3 in both formats)
 San Francisco 
                49ers Despite a strong preseason showing from rookie Glen 
                Coffee, there was never any real doubt that Frank 
                Gore would carry the full load as long as he was healthy. 
                The one interesting event that has transpired in this backfield 
                - besides Coffee filling for Gore for a two-week stretch early 
                in the season - is how the offense has morphed under QB Alex Smith 
                and how that has affected the way Gore is touching the ball. Since 
                Smith took over for Shaun Hill midway through Week 7, Gore has 
                topped 16 carries just once. However, two seven-catch games over 
                the last four contests has salvaged his value - especially in 
                PPR leagues - and has allowed the veteran to receive 22 or more 
                touches in three of the last four contests. Gore has a good shot 
                at producing monster numbers in two more games, especially Week 
                16 vs. Detroit. Seattle (in Week 13) also looms as a potential 
                blow-up game, but it should be noted the Seahawks have long been 
                a much better team - and defense - at home than on the road. Seattle Seahawks Past: Early on in the offseason, 
                Julius Jones 
                appeared to be in the same neighborhood as Cedric Benson - lower-tier 
                RBs who had little to no competition for touches. As any veteran 
                fantasy owner knows, one of the most critical aspects of determining 
                whether a player can have a breakout-type of season is first identifying 
                those players who have 20-touch/game capability. The situation 
                started looking even better for Jones when the team released goal-line 
                specialist T.J. 
                Duckett in the preseason. Of course, that optimism was short-lived 
                when the Seahawks elected to hand Duckett’s old role over to Edgerrin 
                James, a confusing decision for a player (James) who had long 
                been regarded as a weak short-yardage runner. Lo and behold, James 
                was released prior to Week 8.
 Present: Jones made his owners feel pretty good about themselves 
                through three games, scoring in each contest while also contributing 
                in the passing game. Then, the wheels started falling off as the 
                competition got a bit tougher and the offensive line crumbled. 
                Naturally, Jones started running less confidently and the team 
                started showing less confidence in him as a result. (Excluding 
                his 5.0 YPC in Week 10 on just two carries, Jones hasn't topped 
                3.7 YPC since Week 3. In fact, he has been held under 3.0 YPC 
                in four of his last six games.) While the lung bruise that he 
                suffered in Week 10 was obviously very painful for Jones, the 
                injury gave Justin Forsett - formerly thought of as merely a third-down 
                back – a chance to shine. All Forsett has done since is 
                score in each of his three games and eclipse the 100-yard mark 
                twice as the primary ball-carrier. In the one game he didn't rush 
                for over 100 yards, he gave his owners eight catches for 80 yards.
 
 Future: The Seahawks' RB situation has been a headache for owners 
                who invested in any one of their backs, but the emergence of Forsett 
                may be helping to clear things up a bit. HC Jim Mora insists that 
                Jones' job will be waiting for him when he returns, but also notes 
                that Forsett has earned more playing time. So while Jones may 
                still have a starting job, it is going to get harder and harder 
                for the coaching staff to ignore that Forsett is averaging a full 
                2.0 YPC more than Jones and is the bigger-play threat of the two 
                backs. It's actually hard to imagine a scenario at this point 
                where Jones is more valuable than Forsett and with the Seahawks 
                quickly headed toward another losing season; Mora may be inclined 
                to see if Forsett is feature-back material.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Forsett (RB2 in 
                non-PPR and PPR as long as Jones is out; RB3 in non-PPR and RB2 
                in PPR when he returns), Jones (RB3 in both formats)
 St. Louis Rams Rams' RBs have combined for 1,541 total yards and four TDs - 
                Steven Jackson has accounted for 1,378 total yards and all of 
                the scores, an amazing 89% of the team’s overall production. 
                For my money, there isn't a player in the league who is doing 
                more with less than Jackson. Some RBs dominate with power, others 
                dominate with speed and still others dominate in the passing game 
                - but no other back in the league blends all three characteristics 
                as well as Jackson. Thanks to an offseason regimen that prepared 
                him for this season, Jackson is averaging a career-best 4.7 YPC 
                (since becoming the full-time starter) and has managed to stay 
                healthy this deep into a season for the first time in three years. 
                Jackson has been a consistent fantasy force despite a lack of 
                TDs in 2009, but assuming he remains committed to taking care 
                of himself in the offseason, he could easily emerge as fantasy's 
                MVP in 2010 if the Rams continue taking the necessary steps towards 
                respectability. Tampa Bay Bucs Past: This had the potential 
                to be one of those rare backfields where everyone's role was cut 
                and dried. Derrick 
                Ward, the Bucs' big free agent signing, was supposed to be 
                the lead back with Earnest 
                Graham serving as his short-yardage complement. Naturally, 
                HC Raheem Morris and OC Greg Olsen didn't see things that way 
                after Cadillac 
                Williams crashed the party midway through the preseason, prompting 
                the Bucs' coaches to order a 2-2-1 split of the backfield work 
                with Williams being named the starter. This arrangement, of course, 
                did not last long as Graham was needed at fullback while Ward 
                complemented Williams.
 Present: Currently the third-least productive fantasy backfield 
                in PPR leagues, the Bucs have been a mess for most of the season. 
                They have been true to their committee approach, even if it isn't 
                the one that Morris pitched us at the beginning of the season. 
                Williams looked to be running away with lead-back duties midway 
                through the season, but Tampa Bay has seen Graham and Ward each 
                lead the team in fantasy points once over the last four weeks. 
                Still, Williams has accounted for five of the team's seven RB 
                scores, so he remains a better fantasy bet each week than either 
                one of his teammates.
 
 Future: There is no reason to 
                expect things to change in Tampa. Williams is the only player 
                to see more than 14 touches in a single game and is really the 
                only RB that should warrant any starting consideration from owners 
                - and even that is a stretch. The remaining schedule isn't overly 
                daunting, but the Bucs' running game has been a disappointment 
                for much of the season. After putting up a respectable top-half 
                showing in 2008 behind a young and talented offensive line, the 
                preseason dismissal of OC Jeff Jagodzinski undermined the entire 
                offensive operation this season. So while the contract extension 
                of Olsen in November serves as a way to provide rookie QB Josh 
                Freeman with some sort of stability, it hardly inspires a great 
                deal of confidence for the future of this offense has a whole.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Williams (RB3 in 
                non-PPR and PPR), Ward (RB4 in both formats)
 Tennessee Titans  
                  "Every Fantasy Owner's Dream" Chris Johnson 
                got the offseason buzz going when he decided that he was going 
                solo. Rather than being known as an equal partner in Tennessee's 
                "Smash-and-Dash" like he was in 2008, he decided he would become 
                "Every Coach's Dream" in 2009. With the way things are going right 
                now, he may want to consider changing his nickname to "Every Fantasy 
                Owner's Dream". While Vince Young is rightfully receiving a large 
                share of the credit for the Titans' turnaround, the true reason 
                for Tennessee's recent play has been the complete shift in offensive 
                philosophy (centered on Johnson and the running game as opposed 
                to the more balanced attack the Titans were striving for with 
                Kerry Collins) and the health of the defense. While Johnson had 
                nothing to do with the latter, the Titans' move to Young forced 
                Tennessee to scale back the passing game initially and remember 
                what led them to their dominance last season. Since the change 
                at QB and philosophy, Johnson has seen at least 21 touches in 
                every game. More telling, however, is that Johnson has recorded 
                at least 26 touches in four of those five games while LenDale 
                White has seen his carries dwindle from 13 to 4 to 3 to 2 
                all the way down to zero last week when he was deactivated for 
                showing up late for a walk-through. Needless to say, White is 
                being phased out and, while he may see a token carry or two down 
                by the goal line, this is clearly Johnson’s show now and he may 
                end up being this season's fantasy MVP, if not the league MVP. 
                His remaining schedule is by no means soft as the Colts visit 
                the Titans in Week 13, but the Rams, Dolphins and Chargers have 
                all given huge games to running backs and running games much less 
                potent than Johnson and the Titans. Washington Redskins Past: As feature backs go in the preseason, Clinton Portis was 
                right there with Cedric Benson and Julius Jones - players every 
                owner knew would get the lion's share of their backfield's touches 
                but players who we figured would let us down more often than they 
                would help us. It didn't help that Portis was seemingly battling 
                injuries from the very start of the season. Further driving down 
                his stock was the announcement that Ladell Betts would take most 
                of the third-down work in an effort to preserve Portis.
 Present: Already entering the season behind a questionable offensive 
                line, Portis somehow managed to post nearly 4.0 YPC and served 
                his owners as a low-end RB2, mostly because he saw many of the 
                team's carries early on. But Portis' injuries continued to dog 
                him and, little by little, the supporting cast around him fell 
                apart until he too was lost indefinitely due to a concussion in 
                Week 9. Betts performed well in relief in Week 9 and even keyed 
                a surprising win over the Broncos in Week 10 with another solid 
                performance, conjuring up images of his amazing second-half run 
                in 2006. However, the optimism was short-lived as Betts blew out 
                the ACL and MCL in his left knee in Week 11.
 
 Future: The injuries to Portis and Betts have forced the Redskins 
                to turn to career special-teamer Rock Cartwright, who was being 
                worked in sporadically with Betts in Portis' absence. While owners 
                are often hesitant - for good reason - about chasing after a team's 
                third-string RB for their fantasy team, Cartwright is a capable 
                NFL RB and has been a third-stringer for most of his career because 
                the Redskins have generally been pretty strong at his position 
                over the years. It should be noted, however, that Washington's 
                line isn't any better now than it was when Portis was in the lineup, 
                so Cartwright remains a desperate play at best in fantasy.
 
 Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Portis (RB3 in non-PPR 
                and PPR, if/when he returns), Cartwright (RB3 in both formats 
                as long as Portis is out)
 
  e-mail me with any questions/comments.
 
 |