| The “Big Boards”
 8/25/09
 
 Since most of America is in front of the computer at work (or looking 
              for work) more than we care to be, late August and early September 
              can serve as a reminder of what it is like to live. For me, there 
              are few times during the year I look forward to more than my money 
              league drafts. Being on the cusp of building a championship team 
              and outwitting your opponents is a feeling hard to describe, but 
              one worth experiencing for the sheer excitement and exhilaration 
              it can produce.
 However, that feeling of adrenaline shooting through your veins 
                can come to a quick halt if you don't feel like the most prepared 
                owner in your league on draft day. Even though many fantasy owners 
                play just for bragging rights, the goal for money leaguers and 
                non-money leaguers alike is the same: win. In my experience, winning 
                starts in the offseason with preparation, continues at the draft 
                when you can calmly select value over need, which carries over 
                nicely into the season when it is time to make a trade or two. 
                Ideally, all of this lands you firmly in the playoffs with an 
                above-average chance to claim the league championship. As I mentioned before, "value" in drafting is key. 
                Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, 
                it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it 
                is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big 
                Board" in your attempt to earn both the respect and envy 
                of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2009. Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to forewarn 
                each of my readers about the player’s rankings and subsequent 
                place on the board. I will push a player down my board if I cannot 
                trust him to stay healthy all season. If you take the time to 
                tear down each position I provide below, you will notice that 
                I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. Outside 
                of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite 
                a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he 
                will simply be more consistent throughout the season or if his 
                playoff schedule appears treacherous – no, I don't claim 
                to see the future, but history tells us that defenses like Baltimore, 
                Minnesota and Pittsburgh will end more fantasy championship dreams 
                than they help. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called 
                "experts" get tied into the final fantasy point totals. 
                Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points 
                at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's 
                not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my 
                RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds 
                during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may 
                end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you. Note: I increased 
                the size of my board from 100 from a year ago to 175 so 12-team 
                league owners could have a reference tool that included 2 QBs, 
                4-5 RBs, 4-5 WRs, 1-2 TEs, a K and a defensive unit. Also, this 
                year, I added in the bye weeks and the same color coding that 
                I used in my previous PSAs to designate poor, neutral and advantageous 
                matchups during Weeks 14-16. Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players: Without further ado, the “Big Board” for owners in 
                PPR leagues…
 Undoubtedly, many of you are likely shocked by the overall point 
              difference between Jones-Drew and Peterson. Try to think of it this 
              way: Brian 
              Westbrook led most PPR leagues in scoring in 2007 despite missing 
              a game and lacking an elite WR option to take the focus away from 
              him, which in part led to his career-high 90 receptions. Jones-Drew 
              is the same kind of all-purpose back, is a better short-yardage 
              and red zone rusher and has missed just one game in three years. 
              Considering Pocket Hercules' highest-touch season was last year 
              with 235, it becomes a bit frightening to think what he could do 
              with 300 behind a better and healthier offensive line AND a receiver 
              in Torry Holt, 
              who - while he is on the downside of his career - represents the 
              best receiver the Jags have started since the days of Jimmy Smith 
              and Keenan McCardell. I believe 2,000+ total yards and 15-16 TDs 
              is achievable for him this season.
 Jackson-Forte-Gore should spark a lively debate as well. In the 
                end, it comes down to the amount of work I believe Jackson will 
                receive in the passing game. I don't foresee another 90-catch 
                season in his future, but 70-80 is a possibility since he is the 
                best receiver the Rams have. No one will argue that St. Louis 
                is in a rebuilding phase this year, but it does have the makings 
                of a good run-blocking line, so Jackson should be able to sport 
                some nice rushing totals when the Rams are close to their opponent 
                and add some solid production in the passing game when the team 
                falls a score or two behind. He's also the first example on this 
                board of how a top RB can be a high first-round lock in PPR and 
                a borderline first-round pick in non-PPR (more on that below). 
                Forte is like Jackson in a lot of ways, but probably won't see 
                quite the same number of passes Jackson will, which is why he 
                falls just short of the Rams' RB here. Gore should be in for his 
                highest workload since 2006, but doesn't seem to have the knack 
                for the end zone quite like Forte or the receiving upside Jackson 
                does. Quite honestly, though, I could make a strong argument for 
                any one of these backs over the other two.   
                  Michael Turner: PPR victim. Let's skip all the way down to two of PPR's biggest victims: 
                Turner 
                and DeAngelo 
                Williams. Go ahead and believe Turner is a lock for a repeat 
                of 2008 if you want, because I don't. There were seven games last 
                season in which Turner averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry. 
                Five of those teams (Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Oakland 
                and St. Louis) aren't on the Falcons' 2009 schedule, and all five 
                finished 26th or worse in terms of rushing yardage allowed per 
                game. Add in the fact that despite his gaudy numbers from a season 
                ago, he still finished behind a part-time back (MJD) and another 
                one who missed two games (Westbrook) in PPR leagues. As for Williams, 
                he is a good receiving back, but the Panthers - up to now - haven't 
                chosen to feature that part of his game yet. Unfortunately, four 
                of the five opponents I mentioned for Turner above were also on 
                Williams' schedule last year but are not on the slate for this 
                season. Because Williams will run against a more difficult schedule 
                in 2009, he is going to need Jonathan 
                Stewart to be an injury liability for most of the season, 
                since a healthy Stewart probably eats up at least another 160-170 
                carries, leaving D-Will to make his attempt at recapturing fantasy 
                glory again this year on 230-250 carries. I, for one, don't count 
                on certain players getting hurt (unless they have an overwhelming 
                history of such a thing), but for Williams to come anywhere close 
                to his 2008 standards, he will need Stewart to miss substantial 
                time. Furthermore, over the last 30+ years, only Clinton 
                Portis followed one 5.5 YPC season with another. Williams 
                is an elite talent, but a 100-200 yard drop in total yards and 
                a 7-8 TD decrease should be expected. If that is production is 
                acceptable for you in the middle of the first round, by all means, 
                go get him. Lynch is an intriguing player to me in the fourth round. I'm 
                typically not all that thrilled about having a player on my roster 
                that I KNOW won't be able to play for me for three games, but 
                if you can get past that, rarely can an owner find a RB2 in the 
                fourth round they can count on for 20 touches per game. For owners 
                of Steve 
                Smith a season ago that went on to win their league title, 
                you understand that a short suspension at the beginning of the 
                season is not the worst thing in the world if the player you are 
                waiting on can be a vital part of the foundation of your fantasy 
                team. I've cooled ever so slightly on Ray Rice because Willis McGahee 
                will probably steal more snaps than he should, but in a PPR league, 
                I would not have any qualms about the second-year back serving 
                as my RB2. The same goes for Ward, who I can't foresee stealing 
                goal line duties away from Earnest Graham. With that said, he 
                has 40-50 catch upside, so even if he only scores 5-6 times, he 
                should be a solid and consistent RB2 producer. I don't need the Brandon Marshall headache this season. Injured 
                players who don't get their way and want out of town have a tendency 
                of carrying that onto the field with them, with Chad Ochocinco 
                circa 2008 being the latest example. (Child please!) Give me all 
                the young upside backs (Brown, McCoy, Bradshaw, Mendenhall), Harvin 
                and a couple of mid-level TE1’s before him. I probably have Kevin Faulk too low here, but with another capable 
                pass-catching back like Fred Taylor on the roster, it's hard for 
                me to see another 58-catch, 161-touch season out of him again 
                in 2009. On the other hand, I feel like Breaston could be over-ranked 
                here because he would be the most likely of the Arizona WRs to 
                suffer in the catch department if/when the Cardinals decide to 
                balance out their run-pass ratio a bit more. I would have liked 
                to place Hixon a lot higher than his current spot, but I see too 
                much competition in the Giants' deep-ball receiving ranks to go 
                too crazy over him. Mario Manningham could easily steal some of 
                his potential downfield targets as could rookie Ramses Barden. 
                Fellow rookie Hakeem Nicks will also need work, but in the end, 
                I have to believe Steve Smith is Manning's most trusted target. 
                In PPR, that means a lot... Now, the "Big Board for non-PPR owners, (with the only scoring 
                change being the obvious drop of a point per reception).
 Unlike the PPR rankings above, I believe it is more of personal 
                preference at the top between Peterson and Jones-Drew in non-PPR. 
                I prefer MJD because he is capable of a 100-yard game on the ground 
                or through the air, not to mention multiple scores. However, Vikings 
                HC Brad Childress has noted during training camp how much Peterson 
                has improved in the passing game. In the end, though, I think 
                Chester Taylor and Percy Harvin pick away at Peterson's touches 
                just enough to leave him #2 overall. In non-PPR leagues, consistency is even harder to find at RB 
                than in PPR, due to loss of the potential fantasy points per game 
                that come as a result of the backs catching passes. Thus, it is 
                even more important to grab the RBs who are dual-threats AND their 
                team's #1 option in the red zone. I believe my top five reflects 
                that. Moving on, I placed Slaton just above Chris 
                Johnson because of the injury risks that I believe both Chris 
                Brown and Arian Foster are. If they both break down, Slaton's 
                value skyrockets to #3 overall, ahead of LT.  
                  Randy Moss: 17+ TDs in '09? I have Moss 
                as my #1 overall WR this year and would be shocked if he can't 
                deliver in that regard. Moss is the only WR in league history 
                to have THREE seasons of 17 or more receiving TDs; I wouldn't 
                doubt if he makes it four. I'm amazed that some sites have him 
                as low as fourth as he is essentially the team's deep threat AND 
                #1 red zone option. The next subset brings me to the four high-end RBs that I'm a 
                bit leery of for one reason or another (Brown, Turner, Jackson, 
                Williams). Entering his second season after ACL surgery, Brown 
                really only needs the coaching staff to realize that Ricky 
                Williams doesn't need to be getting significant carries anymore 
                to justify his spot on this list. This is about as high as you 
                are going to see Brown on any draft list, but if the Dolphins 
                commit to him as I think they will, I have no problem leaving 
                him where I have him. Turner is a polarizing player for many owners, 
                some of which have him as a clear #1 overall pick in non-PPR leagues. 
                I just don't see it - he will perform like a #1 overall pick in 
                some weeks, but since he is a one-trick pony (no receiving numbers 
                to speak of), he is apt to give his owners 5-6 clunkers over the 
                course of the year. To me, that is too many for a potential top-five 
                pick. Jackson is a dual-threat and his team's best red zone option, 
                but I have a bad feeling he will be more inconsistent than Turner 
                because his supporting cast is the worst of any player in the 
                top 10. I'm more than happy to take him in PPR because he will 
                probably post 60-70 receptions (which will make him a much more 
                consistent back in that format), but I'd just as soon pass on 
                him in the first round of non-PPR leagues. Williams is an exceptional 
                all-around talent with a good offensive line in a run-heavy offense. 
                His biggest issues are the presence of Jonathan 
                Stewart, a line that has no quality depth behind its starting 
                five, a schedule that is brutal at the end of the season and a 
                defense that isn't going to be as good as it was a season ago, 
                which - with a healthy Stewart - will cut his rushing attempts. 
                I'm a big fan of D-Will, but there are an awful lot of things 
                that need to go right for him (again) to come anywhere close to 
                his first-place finish in 2008. While most people rank Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson 1-2 at WR, 
                I think they are clearly 3-4 at best. Boldin was the man in Arizona 
                for most of last season until succumbing to injury late in the 
                season, allowing Fitzgerald to absolutely go crazy in the postseason. 
                However, Fitzgerald is a downright consistent fantasy performer, 
                making it hard to pass on him after Moss. The only think that 
                concerns me about Johnson is the health of Schaub. If his QB finally 
                gives us a 16-game season, AJ may give us a season for the fantasy 
                record books. However, until Schaub gives us that full season, 
                I'm not going to hand Johnson a #1 ranking because I am not someone 
                who believes Dan Orlovsky is going to step in for five games and 
                allow Johnson to consistently produce as if nothing happened to 
                the starting QB. Conversely, I’m a bit more confident in 
                Matt Leinart’s ability to maintain Fitzgerald and Boldin’s 
                consistency if Warner was to go down for any length of time. In fantasy, my definition for a WR2 or RB2 is someone who can 
                produce like a WR1 or RB1, but is inconsistent enough to the point 
                where an owner can't count on him in the same way he/she would 
                a WR1 or RB1. That brings me to Chad Ochocinco, who for several 
                years gave his owners average production at best for a few games 
                at a time only to give us about 3-4 dynamite games to boost up 
                his final numbers. As maddening as that can be for an owner, it 
                isn't often to find a fantasy No.2 at any position that can single-handedly 
                win games for his owners. In other words, DON’T take Ochocinco 
                if you want WR1 numbers almost every week. DO take him if you 
                can pair him up with a Fitzgerald-type and live with a few dreadful 
                performances over the course of the season. Unlike previous years where I could take him as a RB2 in the 
                late fourth round, I'm not sure I want any part of Reggie Bush 
                this season in non-PPR leagues. Offseason knee surgery and his 
                inability to stay on the field all season have pretty much soured 
                me on him as a non-PPR asset. Headed in the other direction in 
                the fantasy stock market is Berrian, who is one of my latest big 
                risers. His new QB has long been able to make a team's deep threat 
                a viable fantasy property and Berrian should be no different. I'm guessing the biggest question readers will have in the fifth 
                round area (49-60) is: Why is Houshmandzadeh is so low and Harvin 
                so high? I don't think there is much doubt T.J. will be the lead 
                dog in the Seahawks' passing game, but I am not encouraged about 
                the questions concerning his supporting cast. Will LT Walter Jones 
                miss substantial time? Does a potential absence of Jones mean 
                we'll see Hasselbeck get injured again? (Starting C Chris Spencer 
                is already out indefinitely.) These questions - along with the 
                new run-heavy offense of OC Greg Knapp should mean lower overall 
                numbers for Housh. Harvin, on the other hand, is having plays 
                installed into the offense just to get him touches...when is the 
                last time anyone could say that about a rookie WR? I'm thinking 
                he will still last until the seventh round in most 12-team leagues, 
                but I would say he is a pretty good bet to live up to my high 
                billing. Donald Brown and LeSean McCoy are receiving plenty of hype already, 
                so I'll focus on Shonn Greene, another rookie who I think will 
                be a pleasant surprise for his owners. The Jets' plan for him 
                is to use him in a role similar to that of a younger Marion Barber 
                in which he gets to pound away at a tired defense in the fourth 
                quarter. I suspect he will quickly become the goal-line back as 
                well, so if you can live with next-to-no production from him in 
                the passing game, the Jets’ rookie should be a solid flex/RB3 
                play. Much like Harvin, Chris 
                Henry doesn't appear to have a certain role cemented in the 
                Bengals' offense outside of "big-play WR". I don't need to tell 
                you though that very few nickel corners can cover "Slim", so while 
                his snaps and catches may be limited, he could be one of the best 
                WR3 selections an owner can make in a non-PPR league this season. I would really like to give Felix Jones a higher ranking, but 
                I have this unshakable feeling he won't make it through the season 
                once again. If you don't have that same feeling, feel free to 
                move him up into the 6-7 round area. Some may find my grouping of Daniels, Miller and Davis odd in 
                the 128-130 pick area. If Daniels could keep his current level 
                of production up and combine that with his rookie year of scoring 
                touchdowns (5), I'd be all for moving him up into John Carlson 
                territory. On the other hand, Miller's production can only go 
                up in my mind as the Raiders' passing game improves, slowly but 
                surely. Every year, Vernon Davis is supposed to realize his vast 
                talent but never seems to reach expectations. As he enters his 
                fourth season, Davis is just now getting acclimated to the first 
                offensive philosophy that suits his game since he's been a Niner. 
                He's only one year removed from a 52-catch, four-TD season (14 
                games), so it isn't as if he hasn't produced already. With an 
                OC that wants to get him the ball and an offense that needs him 
                to produce, this has to be the year Davis steps forward or he 
                probably never will. Kickers Hey, kickers are people too. Quite honestly, it seems everyone 
                has their own take on where kickers should be selected. I personally 
                think if a Rob Bironas is sitting out there to be had and you 
                are comfortable with your bench players at the other positions, 
                why not take a kicker who will probably be an every-week starter 
                for you? To be quite honest, does your 15th round pick at WR, 
                RB or TE stand a better chance at making it to Week 2 than your 
                kicker? It's doubtful. With that said, kickers really should only be considered in the 
                final two rounds, depending on your league’s drafting requirements. 
                (For example, I have played in leagues where all owners are required 
                to draft two defenses. If you have already selected the Steelers’ 
                defense, there is a good chance your #2 defense won’t be 
                staying around very long.) As for what I look for, I usually target 
                kickers with 50-yard power in their legs on teams with strong 
                running games and good defenses that I feel won’t produce 
                in the red zone for one reason or another. Obviously, some of 
                my top picks below don’t fit all the criteria, but Bironas 
                is an obvious example from a season ago that shows there is some 
                merit to that philosophy.
 I'll be back next week with some updates to the Big Boards before 
                we turn this space into more of a strategy/observation column 
                to get you through the season. In the meantime, don't hesitate 
                to e-mail me with any questions 
                or suggestions if there is something that you feel would make 
                the "Big Board" an even better drafting tool. And with that, good luck in your drafts!
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