Just like any coach, I tend to believe the preseason is the time to seek evidence to back up the opinions we formed on players during the offseason and, over the course of the next few weeks, finalize decisions about a player's ability to help our fantasy teams for the upcoming season. Like many other fantasy owners, I am primarily interested in Week 3 of the preseason (which most teams treat as a dress rehearsal for Opening Week, making it the most realistic barometer of a team before the start of the actual regular season). That doesn't mean that every other exhibition is useless and, as such, I plan to take in every single preseason game I can. Another benefit of embracing the preseason is taking stock in some of the deep sleepers or potential fantasy wildcards. For example, Bernard Scott, James Davis and Danny Ware may mean very little to 95% of owners out there right now, but I bet most of those same owners will be the ones kicking themselves for not watching those young bucks in August if Cedric Benson, Jamal Lewis and Brandon Jacobs succumbs to a season-ending injury early in the season.

By now, each of you knows the drill as it relates to the PSA breakdowns. While this week ends our month-long tour of each division and how the schedule affects each team inside it, the next two weeks will be focused on getting everyone as prepared as humanly possible for all their late-August and early-September drafts with the release of my PPR and non-PPR "Big Boards".

As for this article, once again, bear in mind that while the final projections are important, they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have 15 games. For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give PSA: RB article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis. By now, I'm hoping that each of you have a pretty good understanding of my methodology, so let's see how the NFC South and NFC West shake down in 2009.

Note: The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

NFC SOUTH

Matt Ryan may have improved by leaps and bounds over his Rookie of the Year campaign, unfortunately, so has his schedule. The same slate that helped Turner to a huge breakout season is the same one that allowed Ryan to dissect his NFC North and AFC West opponents for 10 TDs and just four INTs in 2008. Certainly, it hasn't been lost on me that Atlanta acquired Gonzalez, a player that should go a long way in helping Ryan to maintain that 5:2 TD/INT ratio, but forgive if I'm not exactly ready to sell the farm to secure the second-year QB's services in 2009. While the passing game's schedule is a bit easier to take than the running game's, all four NFC East teams finished in the top eight of the league vs. the pass last season and it could be argued that maybe only the Eagles have taken a step back. By comparison, Oakland finished 10th - in large part to teams running the ball so effectively against them - while the rest of the AFC West finished 26th or worst.) Furthermore, I'm not crazy about Ryan having field days against the Patriots, Dolphins or Jets, the last of which he faces in Week 15. Ryan has a bright future in this league, so I feel like I have taken that into account by giving him the benefit of the doubt with his final numbers, but that doesn't mean I'm eyeing him as much more than a low-end fantasy QB1 in 2009. Although Harry Douglas didn't exactly set the world on fire with a 22-314-1 line in his rookie season, his absence is going to give Atlanta one less advantage in the matchup game each week as Brian Finneran isn't anywhere close to the same WR that Douglas is, especially in the slot. Taking into account Douglas' season-ending injury, it turns out I gave Michael Jenkins a pretty healthy boost over the numbers I had for him previously. Fortunately, Roddy White's holdout was brief, meaning his final numbers shouldn't suffer much, if at all. It's a good thing, too, because a less talented combo than Ryan-to-White would need every snap possible to successfully navigate an early-season schedule that includes seven difficult matchups over the first 10 games. And the stretch run doesn't get much easier for White as he will likely run up against Asante Samuel in Week 13 and Darrelle Revis in Week 15. Long story short, as tempting as it is to latch on to Falcons' offensive players this season, I'm not seeing the offensive line talent, a play-caller savvy enough to adjust to the more difficult defenses he will face this season or the schedule necessary to warrant all the buzz. While I believe Atlanta has the talent in place now to overcome some of its difficult matchups this season, I don't foresee the Falcons building the necessary offensive chemistry to overcome this kind of schedule until next season.

Since Steve Smith's true breakout season (2003) that established him as one of the league's best wideouts, he has amassed 6,312 receiving yards. To put that into some perspective, that total is nearly 33% of Carolina's total receiving yardage over that time. If we throw out the 2004 season in which Smith was injured for the season in the first game and posted just 60 of the team's 3,643 total receiving yards, Smith is responsible for over 40% of the team's yards gained through the air! Needless to say, the Panthers' passing game begins and ends with the mighty mite. Fortunately for him and his fantasy owners, Smith has proved not only to be one of the league's toughest receivers over that time, but also one of the few players in the league who is essentially what I like to call "matchup-proof". Considering what he has to go up against in the fantasy playoffs this season, he figures to give that moniker a good run for its money. Cold-weather contests in New England in Week 14 and in New York against the Giants in Week 16 don't project to be high-yardage games for anybody. However, if we have learned one things over the years (and the numbers above prove it), Jake Delhomme isn't against force-feeding the ball to Smith. So while I'm not crazy about how his fantasy season winds down, I'm really only concerned with Smith's ability to produce solid fantasy totals in Week 1 vs. Philly's Asante Samuel and in Week 12 vs. the Jets Darrelle Revis. Outside of Smith, the schedule looks absolutely brutal for the secondary players in the passing game. While Dwayne Jarrett is getting hyped as a player ready to push Muhsin Muhammad for a starting spot, both players will probably negate the other for touches while trying to overcome seven red matchups on the schedule on a team that wants to run the ball all day long. To be quite honest, I'd be quite surprised -barring injury - if either Muhammad or Jarrett lived up to the numbers I have projected for them here, but as always, I try to imagine the best-case scenario first and work back from there. Lastly, with my feelings pretty clear on the difficulty of Carolina's schedule, I can't really endorse Delhomme as anything more than a bye-week fill-in. He'll have his moments in the first half of the season, but he'll really have to raise his game to excel in December.

As I have mentioned in this space before, despite a 60-40 pass-run ratio since Payton took over the Saints in 2006, New Orleans' RBs have finished third, tenth and fourth in team fantasy points scored (according to traditional, non-PPR scoring) - an amazing stat considering that 2006 was the only season in which their backs have surpassed 400 carries. The point is that despite such a pass-heavy approach, New Orleans can still give fantasy owners two fantasy-worthy RBs because a fair amount of Brees' attempts are swing or screen passes. (I'll be the first to admit that as difficult as it is to project the season like I attempt to do, trying to forecast how often Brees will opt to dump it off to Reggie Bush or Pierre Thomas is nearly impossible.) Although this team will be a passing team for as long as Brees and Payton are working in tandem, it is not lost on the head coach to use his RBs when the Saints get into scoring position. Since 2006, New Orleans RBs have accounted for 41 of the 66 TDs (rushing or receiving) from inside the five-yard line, which may not sound like much to a "normal" team, but to one which is so heavily predisposed toward airing it out, it is notable considering the Saints have a player such as Marques Colston who is a mismatch for just about any CB in the league in the red zone. Turning to the 2009 schedule, it's amazing that even though the Saints play many of the same opponents as the rest of the NFC South does, there is reason to be more optimistic about Thomas and Bush. First off, the Saints start off the season with two positive matchups and one neutral one - a stretch that should allow the offense to build some trust in the ground attack. A bye is sandwiched by a pair of home games vs. both New York teams, but then New Orleans should enjoy a fairly productive five-week run. While New England and Washington will probably keep the New Orleans running game in check, both games come right before the start of the fantasy playoffs in Week 12-13. A Week 14 tilt at Atlanta could easily be a shootout before they close out the fantasy season at home with two straight neutral matchups. While I gave Dallas the benefit of the doubt on stopping the run against the Saints, I'm not sure either the Cowboys or Bucs will be all that effective stopping any part of the New Orleans offense in the Superdome. Admittedly, the Saints don't have the easiest schedule to run against, but it does offer plenty of opportunity for the team to rely on the ground game more often than they have in the past.

As bad as things look for the running game, it's not exactly a walk in the park for the passing game either. It's hard to like Antonio Bryant going off against the likes of Terence Newman, DeAngelo Hall or Asante Samuel this season, just to name a few. In fact, Bryant may be hard-pressed to put together more than one fantasy WR3-type performance over the first half of the season, a notion that is completely unacceptable for a number of owners who expect a repeat of last season. While new OC Jeff Jagodzinski's new offense will be feature more downfield passing than did Jon Gruden's, "Jags" loves to use his TEs and feature the running game, yet another strike against Bryant. After his nightmarish first-half slate, Bryant could make for a decent buy-low candidate for the second half. However, I just can't foresee him having all that much success in 2009. With Bryant likely to suffer from the blues this season, the weight of the passing game will likely fall onto Kellen Winslow, who was given all the same red marks that Bryant was. Unlike Bryant, Winslow won't be matched up against an opponent's #1 CB, meaning if he can stay healthy, he could put up the same kind of numbers he posted during his finest years in Cleveland in an offense that will feature a young QB (who typically lean on their TEs early on in their careers) and a play-caller that has seemingly always been able to make at least one of his TEs a huge part of his offense. Considering his mid-seventh round ADP, Winslow could end up being a pretty good bargain for those patient owners who want to fill out their WR or RB ranks first but still want top-notch production from a mid-to-late round TE. While I do make mentions of Michael Clayton, Brian Clark and rookie Sammie Stroughter, this new offense - along with a relatively green QB - pretty much ensure that only Bryant and Winslow are worth putting on a fantasy roster. And given that Bryant will rarely get a week away from some of the best DB's in the league, Winslow will need to turn in a Pro Bowl-level performance in 2009 if this offense wants to go anywhere this season.

If we are to use history as a barometer of what Whisenhunt wants to do on offense, it's a good bet that he'll try his best to even out last season's 64-36 pass-to-run ratio, even if he earns a few gray hairs in the process. But first, he'll have to figure out how he wants to handle the tag team of Tim Hightower and Chris "Beanie" Wells. Since the rookie sprained his ankle on the first day of camp, he has been unable to practice, leaving Hightower with all the important reps. What it all means for Wells is that Whisenhunt can't take advantage of the things that his first-round pick does well if he doesn't know what they are, making a return to the practice field this week very important for his hopes of securing a split of the workload in 2009. Believe it or not, even without a noticeable upgrade up front, the RB battle is important for fantasy purposes because of who the Cardinals face during the fantasy playoffs. While I like the Niners' ability to stop the run this season, they will not be an elite unit in that regard. In Weeks 15-16, Arizona faces Detroit and St. Louis, which both have no way to go but up in terms of stopping the run. The Lions (32nd) and Rams (T-28th) featured two of the five worst rush defenses from a season ago, so while Jim Schwartz and Steve Spagnuolo will both do everything in their power to make their teams respectable in those departments, there is no reason to expect drastic improvement from either squad. Of course by then, the RB situation will have been sorted out, but that is much too late for fantasy owners. In my humble opinion, Wells (assuming he doesn't suffer another setback) will grab a slight majority of the carries sometime after the Week 4 bye but will be replaced by a trimmer Hightower in short-yardage situations, much like how he worked with Edgerrin James in 2008. However, I am no longer willing to bet that Wells is this rookie class' lone 300-carry rusher as I was in June.

Every year, there are a handful of teams that are forced to ask themselves: How did the receiving situation get this bad this quickly? To be brutally honest, Donnie Avery would still be a WR2 understudy on most teams while the collection of Keenan Burton, Laurent Robinson and Ronald Curry would be little more than WR4 or WR5 options if they played somewhere else. Don't get me wrong, there is some upside to these receivers, but both Burton and Robinson are green while Curry has had trouble recapturing the form that allowed him to be a 50-catch receiver three different times in this league. Unfortunately, one of those players (two if we are to believe Avery may miss the season opener) will need to start each week. And while the line seems to be doing well blocking for the run so far in camp, there is apparently much reason for concern when Marc Bulger goes back to throw. The Rams QB is still capable of being an above-average triggerman in this league, but one has to wonder just how many more hits he can withstand. This is one of the many reasons why Shurmur was hired to install the West Coast offense, that is, to get the ball out of Bulger's hands quickly and preserve him with an offense heavy on short passes to Randy McMichael and Jackson. Looking at the schedule, the Rams get very few red matchups. But as challenged as this receiving group is right now, I'm not crazy about its chances to exploit many of the neutral matchups either. In fact, I would expect every single defense St. Louis faces in the second half of the season to blitz even more than they would normally. Given the fact the Rams lack a quality playmaker in the open field or down the field (Avery does not qualify as either yet in my mind), St. Louis will find itself struggling to score in several games this season. As such, I believe Avery's 7.12 ADP is a bit high for my liking. In fact, the only fantasy property from this passing game that I expect to live up to his ADP this season is McMichael.

With rookie Michael Crabtree's holdout expected to last longer than the recession, San Francisco's chances of becoming a dynamic passing team in 2009 went from slim to none. That isn't to suggest there isn't any reason to pay attention, though. We have all tired of waiting on Vernon Davis to fulfill his immense potential, but for the first time in his four-year career, there is actually hope for him to deliver on it. Why? Because he has an OC that is a veteran play caller and knows what a highly athletic TE can do for an offense. As such, I expect a career year from Davis across the board, despite all the red that appears on his schedule. In short, defenses seem to have a much harder time keeping a talented TE in check than a slightly-above average receiver because most teams refuse to put their best cover player on a TE. Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about San Francisco's WR corps. Josh Morgan has all the talent in the world, but I'm not sure I want him serving as my go-to WR quite yet. Crabtree could one day become that player, but with each passing day of his holdout, Crabtree becomes that much more unlikely to contribute in 2009. Lastly, Isaac Bruce still proved he had a little bit left in the tank last season, but I really don’t want to count on a WR that turns 37 during the season who isn't the #1 option in a run-based offense. And, as luck would have it, the schedule also suggests that it is in the Niners' best interest to run all day. While I expect Arizona and Minnesota to be decent vs. the pass, the trouble for San Fran's passing game begins after the bye with two teams that will blitz regularly this season (Houston, Indianapolis) followed by two teams that have been pretty sound zone-based defenses over the years. Green Bay's defensive backfield also isn't a good matchup for the Niners' wideouts, which leads us to the end of the fantasy season when the Niners will struggle to perform well in Seattle and then face Arizona for the second time in Week 14. As I mentioned above, Philadelphia may have some struggles against the run, but the Eagles are much too deep and talented in their defensive backfield to be carved up by an offense like San Francisco. Detroit may appear to offer a nice Week 16 alternative for owners in their title game, but something tells me Gore will be featured in that contest. For owners looking for a San Francisco WR or TE to contribute, spend a late-round pick on Davis and thank me later.

Since I covered the offensive line issues in the paragraph above, I'll move right into the RB situation. Surprisingly, former HC Mike Holmgren's offense was pretty balanced a season ago (53-47 pass-to-run ratio). With Knapp now in charge, that ratio may very well get reversed, especially if the defense can play up to its potential. Much as he wants no dominant receiver in the passing game, Knapp does not necessarily want to see one back get the overwhelming majority of work on the ground either, which will probably change my previous prediction of Julius Jones receiving 60% of the carries, T.J. Duckett 30% and Justin Forsett 10%. Since Duckett appears to be the clear goal-line back, I'm now hard-pressed to forecast Jones being the most valuable fantasy RB on his own team. If I had to bet, I would say he would be, but even if the split goes down to something like 50-35-15, Jones ends up losing 50 carries over the course of the season if the team runs 500 times in 2009, shedding nearly 200 yards from his projected total. And it's a shame if it comes to that because the Seahawks' new zone-blocking scheme should complement Jones' skill set well. Just like a couple of their division rivals' schedules, the Seahawks' slate is one that should allow them to have some success on the ground. Outside of Minnesota in Week 11, no elite run-stopping units appear on the schedule, although Chicago and Dallas have the team speed and personnel necessary to be stingy vs. the run. Tampa Bay and Green Bay may also have things figured out against the run by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, but the real reasons to be extremely patient in drafting Seattle RBs this year are: 1) the three-back system they will be using and 2) the unsure nature of the offensive line. While Knapp's track record for getting results from the running game is well-known around the league, Seattle is walking on an extremely thin tightrope hoping that the offensive line stays healthy. As a result, I would consider Jones as a low-end fantasy RB3 capable of a 1,000-yard season and Duckett as a mid-level RB4 capable of a 10-TD season.