| Wildcard Weekend
 1/8/10
 
 
 
 Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising 
                to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams' 
                inability to close the deal in your fantasy postseason or just 
                aren't ready to hang up your owner's hat quite yet, playoff fantasy 
                football may be just the thing you need to end this season right. I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't 
                appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week animal, but that 
                doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most profitable 
                fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season even better. 
                For better or for worse, I want to share my experience with you 
                (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph you 
                may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season 
                on a definite high note. For the first time in my “fantasy career", I'll be 
                taking part in multiple playoff leagues this year. I will compete 
                in one free league with CBS Sportsline and two money leagues with 
                Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks will 
                be to help each of you through your decision-making process as 
                you attempt to boost your bottom line. Sportsline
 Scoring
 
 Offensive Statistics
 All TDs = 6 points
 Passing Yards - 1 point for every 25 yards
 Rushing/Receiving Yards - 1 point for every 10 yards
 Two-point conversion = 2 points
 Interception - 2 points
 Fumble Lost - 2 points
 Field Goals 0-49 yards = 3 points; 50+ yards = 5 points
 Extra Point = 1 point
 Defensive/Special Teams Statistics 
                Touchdown = 6 points;
 Safety = 2 points
 Interception = 2 point
 Fumble Recovery = 2 points
 Sack = 1 point
 Points Allowed0-6 = 8 points
 7-13 = 6 points
 14-20 = 4 points
 21-27 = 2 points
 28+ = 0 points
 
 Yards Allowed
 0-49 = 12 points
 50-99 = 10 points
 100-149 = 8 points
 150-199 = 6 points
 200-249 = 4 points
 250-299 = 2 points
 300+ = 0 points
 The Rules Choose a starting lineup of eight NFL players. You will have 
                300 units (or salary cap dollars) to "spend" assembling 
                your team. You will be able to change your lineup, without penalty, 
                until the lineup setting deadline for the Wild Card Playoff Round. 
                Once your lineup locks for the Wild Card Playoff Round, you will 
                have eight lineup moves to make for the remainder of the postseason. 
                You may use as many of the moves allotted in any round as you 
                would like, however, you will not be able to exceed the eight 
                moves allotted for the remainder of the postseason. In case 
                there was any doubt, the number listed by each player is their 
                “cap number”. What this means for you: Pick 
                as many winners (team, not individual) as you can for your lineup 
                this week. For the most part, it's not good strategy to use any 
                more than three players from any one team simply because an upset 
                or two can severely hamper your ability to make roster moves later. 
                Of course, you are also trying to score the most points each week, 
                so there is a delicate balance between the present and the future. 
                Generally speaking, if you can get at least four players on your 
                Wild Card week roster that you would be willing to keep on your 
                roster all the way through to the Super Bowl, you'll probably 
                be in good shape. Ideally, I'll need about three roster moves 
                next week, two for the AFC and NFC Championship Games and the 
                last three for the Super Bowl. But at least for this week, the 
                goal is to get the highest-scoring lineup out there that the cap 
                will allow and contemplate the future when this week's games are 
                decided. Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 
                1 Defense/Special Teams QuarterbacksAaron Rodgers, @ARI 90
 Tom Brady, vs BAL 76
 Tony Romo, vs PHI 72
 Donovan McNabb, @DAL 64
 Kurt Warner, QB GB 63
 Carson Palmer, vs NYJ 60
 Joe Flacco, @NE 58
 Mark Sanchez, @CIN 36
 First cuts: Rodgers, Brady, 
                McNabb, Palmer, Flacco, SanchezThe final choices: Romo, Warner
 
 The call: Warner. In this salary 
                cap format, budgeting at certain positions is the name of the 
                game. Right now, it wouldn't shock me if Aaron Rodgers is the 
                unanimous QB1 in fantasy drafts in 2010. At the very least, he's 
                done enough to join the elite at his position (Peyton Manning, 
                Brady, Drew Brees). He is a scoring threat on the ground and through 
                the air, he does a great job of limiting turnovers and he doesn't 
                miss games, but his price tag is roughly 30% of my budget - a 
                pretty sizeable chunk of change and too much for an owner who 
                wants big scoring potential at more than 2-3 positions. Brady 
                may have been a consideration, but the loss of Wes Welker pretty 
                well scares me away. McNabb has one total TD in two games vs. 
                the Cowboys this season and has been far from a yardage machine 
                in those two meetings. You can forget the bottom three players 
                on this list: the Bengals don't seem all that interested in using 
                Palmer unless they need a fourth-quarter comeback, Flacco has 
                thrown for less than 200 yards in six of his last 10 games and 
                Sanchez may not even attempt 20 throws this weekend. So, in a 
                fairly close call, I'll opt for Warner over Romo as I believe 
                the Cardinals will have a harder time running the ball consistently 
                vs. Green Bay than they have in recent weeks. I think Romo's ceiling 
                this weekend is about 250 yards and two scores - totals which 
                should be fairly easy to reach for Warner, with or without a hobbled 
                Anquan Boldin. In this year's wide-open Super Bowl chase, I may 
                be tempted to stick with Warner for as long as the Cardinals remain 
                in the playoffs (to save on roster moves) because he's a great 
                bet to be productive and he's going to be cheaper than Romo or 
                any of the QBs on a bye this week.
 Running BacksRay Rice, @NE 56
 Thomas Jones, @CIN 50
 Cedric Benson, vs NYJ 48
 Ryan Grant, @ARI 47
 Marion Barber, vs PHI 34
 Beanie 
                Wells, vs GB 33
 Laurence Maroney, vs BAL 31
 Tim Hightower, vs GB 28
 LeSean McCoy, @DAL 28
 Willis McGahee, @NE 26
 Kevin Faulk, vs BAL 19
 Felix Jones, vs PHI 19
 Leonard Weaver, @DAL 17
 Tashard Choice, vs PHI 16
 Larry Johnson, NYJ 14
 Sammy Morris, vs BAL 14
 Brian Westbrook, @DAL 13
 Shonn Greene, @CIN 13
 First cuts: Benson, Maroney, 
                Hightower, McCoy, McGahee, Bell, Faulk, Weaver, Choice, Brown, 
                Johnson, Morris, Westbrook, GreeneThe final choices: (RB1) Rice, 
                Thomas Jones, Grant (RB2) Barber, Wells, Felix Jones
 
 
  
                  Jones: A lock for 20+ carries. The RB2 call: Beanie Wells. 
                Typically, during a normal 16-week fantasy season, I play the 
                matchups and count on yards from my players and hope for TDs. 
                In playoff leagues, we are often not lucky enough to have an every-down 
                RB face a bottom-10 run defense. Therefore, it is fairly good 
                strategy in playoff leagues to aim for backs that are good bets 
                to score and hope for the best with yardage totals. Also, with 
                the 300-unit salary cap, there's a fairly good chance that an 
                owner in this kind of league setup will have to enter this week 
                with at least one halfway risky option. In a non-PPR scoring system 
                like this league is, I'll take that risk with a RB like Wells 
                who plays in a top-notch offense which has allowed him to steal 
                more and more carries lately while also getting a few cracks at 
                the end zone from time to time. While Felix Jones has been getting 
                more work leading up to the playoffs, his scoring opportunities 
                come only when he breaks long runs, something I don't like to 
                bet on happening all that often. The RB1 call: Thomas Jones. 
                As much as I like Rice, he has scored only once since Week 10 
                (vs. Detroit) and I don't benefit nearly as much in this league 
                from his work in the passing game as I would in a PPR setup. So 
                my choice comes down to two fairly similar fantasy RBs: Jones 
                and Grant. Jones hasn't seen fewer than 19 touches since Leon 
                Washington's injury while Grant's usage can be very inconsistent, 
                often depending on the quality of the opponent's run defense. Wide ReceiversRandy Moss, vs BAL 47
 Miles Austin, vs PHI 45
 DeSean Jackson, @DAL 44
 Larry Fitzgerald, vs GB 43
 Chad Ochocinco, vs NYJ 37
 Derrick Mason, @NE 34
 Greg Jennings, @ARI 33
 Donald Driver, @ARI 32
 Anquan Boldin, vs GB 30
 Roy Williams, 
                vs PHI 24
 Jerricho Cotchery, @CIN 23
 Jeremy Maclin, @DAL 23
 Braylon Edwards, @CIN 21
 Steve Breaston, vs GB 21
 Laveranues Coles, vs NYJ 19
 Jason Avant, @ DAL 18
 Patrick Crayton, vs PHI 18
 James Jones, 
                @ARI 17
 Andre Caldwell, vs NYJ 14
 Mark Clayton, @NE 14
 First cuts: Jackson, Ochocinco, 
                Mason, Jennings, Driver, Boldin, Jones, Caldwell, Clayton, Williams, 
                Cotchery, Maclin, Edwards, Coles, Avant, CraytonThe final choices: Moss, Austin, 
                Fitzgerald, Breaston
 
 
  
                  Austin: He catches the ball. The WR2 call: Austin. What 
                kind of year is it when a WR has five catches for 81 yards and 
                a score through a quarter of the season in a reserve role only 
                to use the next 12 games to end up with a salary cap number higher 
                than Fitzgerald? Part of that answer lies in his recent target 
                numbers (which look much like a six-week line Fitzgerald would 
                post): 11, 12, 8, 13, 10 and 8. Unlike the starting WR opposite 
                him (Williams), when Romo throws the ball in Austin’s direction, 
                the ball usually stays in his hands. The breakout WR’s worst 
                game over that time (catch and yardage-wise) was a six-reception, 
                71-yard performance vs. SD in Week 14. While it's safe to never 
                bet against Boldin playing through an injury, that should be the 
                very reason why owners should not choose him or Breaston this 
                week. Long story short, a fantasy bargain like Breaston isn't 
                a bargain if you don’t know if he’s going to start, 
                keep his usual WR3 role or something in between. The WR1 call: Fitzgerald. I 
                was leaning in this direction even before I knew of Arizona's 
                playoff matchup and felt even better about it after learning that 
                Boldin would be somewhat limited - if he even plays at all. There 
                are very few receivers who answer the bell as routinely as Fitzgerald 
                and he's one of the few receivers in the league who has shown 
                he can handle the extra defensive attention that often comes with 
                Boldin's absence. The talk of the Ravens double-teaming Moss this 
                week will get a lot of talk this week with the Pats minus Wes 
                Welker, but that was going to happen anyway. I like Moss to be 
                productive this week, but I expect New England to run a few more 
                times and use Ben Watson, Julian Edelman and Ben Watson to help 
                fill the sizeable void left by Welker's season-ending injury. Tight EndsBrent Celek, @DAL 32
 Jason Witten, vs PHI 24
 Todd Heap, @NE 22
 Jermichael Finley, @ARI 20
 Ben Watson, 
                vs BAL 16
 Dustin Keller, @CIN 15
 First cuts: Heap, Watson, KellerThe final choices: Celek, Witten, 
                Finley
 
 The call: Finley. The cat is 
                pretty much out of the bag on Aaron Rodgers' favorite red zone 
                target. While he has been an absolute stud in PPR formats since 
                his return from a knee injury in Week 11, he also been pretty 
                solid in non-PPR leagues as well. From Weeks 13-16, Finley has 
                finished each game with 70-80 yards receiving and, in Week 17, 
                he chipped in one of his four TDs over the last five weeks in 
                the Packers' blowout win vs. Arizona. It's funny, because opponents 
                have to know by now that Rodgers will be looking for Finley to 
                out-jump his defender in the end zone - they just can't do anything 
                about it. He's much too big for any CB or S to defend and defenses 
                are leery of putting a LB out wide, especially in the red zone. 
                While Celek could easily match Finley's overall numbers this week, 
                he's too pricey for my tastes and Witten just isn't scoring TDs 
                with any regularity this year, mostly because of Miles Austin.
 KickersDavid Akers, @DAL 34
 Mason Crosby, @ARI 30
 Stephen Gostkowski, vs BAL 28
 Jay Feely, @CIN 26
 Shayne Graham, vs NYJ 24
 Neil Rackers, vs GB 20
 Shaun Suisham, vs PHI 19
 
 First cuts: Crosby, Gostkowski, 
                Graham, Rackers, CundiffThe final choices: Akers, Feely, 
                Suisham
 
 The call: Suisham. Akers always 
                seems like a good pick as a fantasy kicker, but much like the 
                rest of the Eagles' offense, his numbers haven't exactly been 
                stellar vs. the Cowboys this year and I can't justify such a high 
                price for a kicker anyway. I feel better about Feely than Suisham, 
                but my budget doesn't allow for that luxury. Plus, I can't say 
                with any degree of certainty that the Bengals-Jets game will be 
                anything more than a 17-14 game anyway. Thus, I'll roll the dice 
                on Suisham, who will benefit from kicking inside the Cowboys' 
                fancy stadium and (most importantly) comes cheaper than the other 
                viable options this week.
 DefensesEagles 
                @DAL 37
 Packers 
                @ARI 31
 Cardinals 
                vs GB 28
 Ravens 
                @NE 27
 Jets @CIN 
                26
 Bengals 
                vs NYJ 26
 Cowboys 
                vs PHI 23
 Patriots 
                vs BAL 23
 First cuts: Eagles, Cardinals, 
                Ravens, PatriotsThe final choices: Packers, 
                Jets, Bengals, Cowboys
 
 The call: Cowboys. Much like 
                kickers, it's often a good idea in salary cap fantasy football 
                leagues to take the most affordable option that has a good chance 
                at success in order to leave yourself with as much room under 
                the cap as possible to splurge on the most likely point producers 
                at QB, RB and WR. In this case, any owner of the Cowboys' defense 
                gets to benefit from the fact (cap-wise) that Dallas didn't put 
                together a full season of the dominant defense it has shown recently. 
                Following up an impressive effort in New Orleans in Week 15, the 
                Cowboys have posted consecutive shutouts. I'm not going to predict 
                another bagel in this rematch vs. the Eagles, but Dallas is playing 
                arguably the best defense of any team still in the chase for the 
                Super Bowl. The fact the 'Boys are tied with the Patriots as the 
                lowest-priced defense in this league is just a bonus. As for the 
                runners-up, Arizona is just too scary for me to chase the expensive 
                Packers' defense and both the Jets and Bengals defenses have some 
                key injuries that scare me a bit. Plus, with both teams running 
                the ball so much, the likelihood that I'll benefit from some turnovers 
                is pretty low.
 Fuzzy's Playoff Leagues Fuzzy's playoff format is much more streamlined than Sportsline's. 
                Fuzzy's uses traditional PPR scoring (all TDs worth six points) 
                with no salary cap, no limit on roster moves between rounds and 
                no yards allowed bonuses for the defenses. In short, your goal 
                is to pick the highest-scoring lineup each week with no strings 
                attached. The main difference outside of the ones I've already 
                mentioned is that Fuzzy's leagues contain no more than 50 teams 
                whereas Sportsline employs a one-man-against-the-world approach. 
                As a result, 20% of the entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues 
                will - at the very least - recoup their entry fee, with first 
                through ninth place receiving a nice bonus for their troubles. Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 
                1 Defense/Special Teams (Because the players/matchups are same as they are above, I'll 
                skip the step of mentioning each player again and get right to 
                my choices.) QB: Rodgers. For all the reasons 
                I mentioned above - he is a scoring threat on the ground and through 
                the air, he does a great job of limiting turnovers and he doesn't 
                miss any snaps - I'm going to go with the QB who pretty much performs 
                regardless of the matchup. While Rodgers was held to 15 fantasy 
                points or less in two of the last three weeks, both games came 
                against opponents who could not stop the run. So even though I 
                recognize that Arizona's run defense has slipped lately, it hasn't 
                fallen to the depths of Chicago's and Seattle's run defense. Packers 
                HC Mike McCarthy runs a QB-friendly offense and, quite honestly, 
                every player eligible to catch a pass from Rodgers is a viable 
                receiving threat. Without a salary cap to worry about in this 
                league, I'll opt for 2009's top fantasy QB and expect roughly 
                275 passing yards, 30 rushing yards and three total TDs.  
                  Rice: A no-brainer in a PPR format. RBs: Rice and Thomas Jones. In 
                this league (with no salary cap and PPR scoring), I'd be foolish 
                not to pick Rice. In Baltimore's game vs. New England back in 
                Week 4, Rice accounted for five catches and 152 total yards, numbers 
                that I could see him approaching this weekend as Joe Flacco continues 
                to fade from his early-season prominence. Jones, on the other 
                hand, is a much tougher call. With only 10 catches on the season, 
                the PPR scoring hurts his stock in this format. But this weekend, 
                there just are not a lot of quality RB options, plus, it's hard 
                to argue with the fact that Jones has seen at least 19 touches 
                in every game since Leon Washington went down. Furthermore, Jones 
                has posted only one single-digit fantasy point performance since 
                Week 3. Ryan Grant has been just about as consistent, but he is 
                not the center of the Packers' offense like Jones. Marion Barber 
                has come on as of late, but he looks to be in a fairly equal committee 
                with Felix Jones now. Cedric Benson should be rested, but doesn't 
                score enough for my liking. Lastly, Beanie Wells doesn't inspire 
                the same confidence in me that Doug does, especially when you consider 
                the presence of Hightower and how quickly HC Ken Whisenhunt has 
                pulled any one of his RBs after they have fumbled this season. WRs: Fitzgerald, Austin and 
                Moss. I'm going to let my explanations above do the talking for 
                my first two selections, but the identity of my WR3 will take 
                a bit more research. The decision ultimately comes down to Moss, 
                Julian Edelman, Donald Driver and Steve Breaston. My first thought 
                was Edelman, who many have likened as a Wes Welker clone. While 
                that isn't exactly untrue, Tom Brady trusts Welker implicitly 
                and that kind of trust doesn't happen overnight with a rookie 
                WR who played QB in college. He's going to be a fine WR, but who 
                do you think Brady will go to when it matters the most? Driver 
                would be a wonderful, steady choice as well, but much like many 
                other players, he just doesn't find the end zone enough for my 
                liking. Breaston is a natural choice if Boldin is unable to go 
                this week, but his second-half fade has weakened my faith in him, 
                at least for the rest of this season. In the end, I obligated 
                to go with Moss for a number of reasons: 1) he's always a threat 
                for a huge game, 2) he's going to be Brady's favorite target the 
                rest of the way and 3) Baltimore has been shredded by deep threats 
                all season long, especially during the second half of the season. TE: Finley. I am torn between my 
                new favorite TE and another TE who I didn't rank near as high 
                as my heart told me I should in the preseason, Brent Celek. Over 
                the last three weeks, Celek and Finley are ranked 2-3 among TEs 
                in scoring, respectively, while Finley has the advantage when 
                the period of time is extended to five weeks. In the end, I'll 
                lean toward the fact that Arizona is in the top 10 in regards 
                to allowing the most points to opposing TEs and the fact that 
                Finley is more of a matchup nightmare than Celek. This could go 
                either way, but I'll put my chips on Finley this week. K: Feely. After being Mr. Consistency 
                prior to the Jets' bye week, Feely has been either way up or way 
                down since then. Since Week 10 (according to Fuzzy's scoring), 
                Feely has posted 11, 2, 6, 14, 17, 1, 8 and 13 fantasy points 
                in succession. Of course, like most defensive teams that run the 
                ball, the kicker is either going to suffer or benefit based on 
                the offense's ability to punch it in when they enter the red zone. 
                There's little chance the Jets put up another 37-point effort 
                in Cincy this week, but it is a good bet they will stall on the 
                Bengals' half of the field more often than they score touchdowns. 
                Feely has a big leg, so unless the weather is horrible, he should 
                be one of the better - if not the best - option this week at a 
                highly unpredictable position. D/ST: Cowboys. I explained my case 
                for the Cowboys above, but the case for the Dallas defense gets 
                stronger when you consider how much the Eagles will miss C Jamaal 
                Jackson against Jay Ratliff, who has quickly become one of the 
                best 3-4 NT in the league. Unlike most of his brethren, Ratliff 
                disrupts offenses more with his quickness and pass rush than brute 
                strength. When you consider that new C Nick Cole will probably 
                need some help in blocking him, the chances that OLBs DeMarcus 
                Ware and Anthony Spencer get some shots at McNabb are pretty high. 
                I'm not expecting anything close to another shutout from Dallas' 
                defense, but I'll be plenty happy with an effort somewhat close 
                to the Cowboys' 20-16 win in Week 9 in which the Cowboys sacked 
                McNabb three times and picked off two passes. Quite honestly, 
                I envision a 17-10 type of game and with the way their defense 
                is playing recently, I have a feeling the Cowboys will be the 
                ones giving up the 10.
 e-mail me with any questions/comments.
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