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Doug Orth
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Preseason Schedule Analysis
NFC Projections Update
8/20/10
 AFC | NFC

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | STL | SF | SEA

Even though we are not even midway through the preseason, much has taken place in the ever-changing world of the NFL. (For example, I have been forecasting players division by division so long that Brett Favre retired and returned.) In all seriousness, however, hardly a day goes by in which a news item comes across the wire doesn’t cause those of us in the fantasy football world to adjust our rankings and/or projections slightly.

Therefore, in anticipation of my “Big Boards” that will be released over the next several Tuesdays, I thought it would be helpful to provide each of you with my most updated projections for the upcoming season with a brief explanation included with each team.

Note: Players whose names are in italics have seen their projections changed since the initial division-by-division breakdown.

(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Note: The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

NFC EAST

 Dallas Cowboys
  Totals   WAS CHI HOU bye TEN MIN NYG JAX GB NYG DET NO IND PHI WAS ARI
(Run)     8.2 8.3 7.8   7.8 9.4 8.3 6.7 9.4 8.3 6.4 7.4 7.6 8 8.2 8.5
(Pass)     7.4 8.3 7.5   7.5 8.2 8.9 7.6 8.3 8.9 5.8 7.8 8.8 8.2 7.4 7.4
                                     
Tony Romo 4370 + 280 340 285   265 310 285 340 225 275 325 290 250 290 310 300
TD 30   1 3 3   2 2 2 3 0 1 4 2 0 2 2 3
INT 11   0 0 1   0 2 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 1
Ru Yards 150   15 10 5   0 15 25 0 15 10 0 15 10 10 5 15
Ru TD 2   0 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
                                     
Marion Barber 850   70 55 90   40 40 100 35 INJ 25 50 80 100 40 50 75
Ru TD 8   1 0 1   0 1 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 2 0 0 1
Re Yards 170   20 5 15   0 10 25 10 INJ 15 0 20 10 15 0 25
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 22   2 1 2   0 1 3 1 INJ 2 0 3 2 2 0 3
                                     
Felix Jones 730 - 50 35 65   75 30 35 INJ INJ 50 80 55 35 115 65 40
Ru TD 5   0 0 1   1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 240   15 15 30   15 15 10 INJ INJ 10 20 25 5 45 25 10
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 27   2 1 3   2 2 1 INJ INJ 1 3 2 1 5 3 1
                                     
Tashard Choice 415 + 15 25 10   35 15 5 60 75 60 40 15 25 5 15 15
Ru TD 2   0 0 0   0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 110   15 10 0   5 10 0 20 15 5 0 5 5 0 15 5
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 16   2 1 0   1 1 0 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 2 1
                                     
Miles Austin 1250   80 110 85   55 70 85 120 35 75 125 80 55 90 75 110
Re TD 9   0 1 1   0 0 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 86   5 8 6   3 5 6 8 4 6 8 5 4 7 6 5
                                     
Roy Williams 490 - 35 45 20   35 55 35 25 50 20 55 30 30 INJ 35 20
Re TD 3   0 1 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0
Rec 35   2 3 2   3 4 2 2 4 1 4 2 2 INJ 3 1
                                     
Dez Bryant 725   25 40 50   85 40 35 40 35 85 25 55 60 35 60 55
Re TD 5   0 0 1   1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 55   2 3 5   5 3 2 3 3 6 2 5 5 2 5 4
                                     
Patrick Crayton 255   10 15 20   0 15 40 15 30 0 10 25 15 30 10 20
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 23   1 1 2   0 1 3 1 3 0 1 2 2 3 1 2
                                     
Jason Witten 1015 + 80 90 65   60 80 55 100 45 65 75 40 55 75 85 45
Re TD 8   1 1 1   0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 88   6 8 6   5 7 5 8 4 5 7 4 6 6 7 4
                                     
Martellus Bennett 115   0 10 0   10 15 0 10 15 0 15 10 15 0 5 10
Re TD 1   0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12   0 1 0   1 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 1

The only alteration I made in regards to the Cowboys was adding a TD to Austin’s total, giving him nine for the season. With every “skill” position a definite weapon in Dallas nowadays, the only thing that should keep Romo from finishing in the top tier of QBs is an injury. As for Austin, let’s throw out the two big games from last season when he exploded onto the scene (against the Chiefs and Falcons in which he compiled 421 yards and four scores) and use his second-half stats as a barometer for this season. Why? Because they would supply us with the information we want, most notably how Austin performed once teams realized he was the Cowboys’ new WR1: 54 catches, 708 yards and four scores in Weeks 9-17. Project those totals over 16 games and that is still a pretty healthy season. Because Bryant will miss a large chunk of potential “bonding” time with Romo, it’s probably a safe bet that Austin will be his QB’s preferred WR target for most, if not all, of this season.

 New York Giants
  Totals   CAR IND TEN CHI HOU DET DAL bye SEA DAL PHI JAX WAS MIN PHI GB
(Run)     5.8 7.6 7.8 8.3 7.8 6.4 8.8   7.5 8.8 8 6.7 8.2 9.4 8 9.4
(Pass)     7.1 8.8 7.5 8.3 7.5 5.8 7.8   8 7.8 8.2 7.6 7.4 8.2 8.2 8.3
                                     
Eli Manning 3675   230 235 310 240 300 230 235   205 235 270 255 175 290 280 185
TD 24   3 2 1 1 2 3 1   1 2 0 2 1 2 1 2
INT 13   0 2 0 2 0 1 1   2 0 0 0 1 1 2 1
                                     
Brandon Jacobs 1000 + 115 85 50 65 70 90 70   INJ 85 60 45 55 60 85 65
Ru TD 10   2 1 0 1 0 1 1   INJ 0 2 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 100   10 5 0 5 10 0 15   INJ 5 15 0 10 5 10 10
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17   2 1 0 1 1 0 2   INJ 1 2 0 2 1 2 2
                                     
Ahmad Bradshaw 885 + 100 60 80 50 55 80 45   75 40 75 100 INJ 35 55 35
Ru TD 5   1 0 1 0 0 1 0   1 0 1 0 INJ 0 0 0
Re Yards 275   25 15 45 0 20 15 15   25 15 25 5 INJ 15 15 40
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 1
Rec 25   2 2 1 0 2 1 2   3 2 2 1 INJ 2 1 4
                                     
Danny Ware 125   10 10 0 0 0 15 0   35 0 0 10 20 5 10 10
Ru TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 75   0 5 0 10 0 0 0   10 0 5 20 20 0 5 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11   0 1 0 1 0 0 0   1 0 1 3 3 0 1 0
                                     
Steve Smith 1095   45 55 80 75 110 65 80   75 60 75 80 60 110 75 50
Re TD 6   1 0 0 0 1 1 0   1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 88   4 7 6 7 10 5 7   6 5 7 6 4 7 4 3
                                     
Hakeem Nicks 1000 + 70 50 105 45 75 65 75   50 70 90 60 45 100 50 50
Re TD 7   1 0 1 0 0 1 1   0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 71   4 4 6 3 6 5 6   3 5 6 5 3 7 4 4
                                     
Mario Manningham 470   35 75 50 60 INJ INJ 20   35 50 0 40 20 25 35 25
Re TD 3   0 1 0 1 INJ INJ 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 25   2 3 3 2 INJ INJ 1   3 2 0 1 2 2 2 2
Victor Cruz/                                    
Ramses Barden 180 ^ 10 5 0 15 35 20 0   0 30 0 20 0 15 30 0
Re TD 3   0 1 0 0 1 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14   1 1 0 1 2 2 0   0 2 0 2 0 1 2 0
                                     
Kevin Boss 390   35 25 20 30 25 55 10   10 5 50 30 20 20 45 10
Re TD 4   1 0 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 37   4 2 2 3 2 4 1   1 1 4 3 2 3 4 1
                                     
Travis Beckum 90   0 0 10 0 25 10 20   0 0 10 0 0 0 15 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7   0 0 1 0 2 1 1   0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Cruz likely played his way onto the roster with his sparkling three-TD performance on Monday Night Football earlier this week (if he hadn’t already done so in training camp, considering how HC Tom Coughlin – the praiseworthy coach that he is – has been singing his praises for his work in practice) and probably cost Sinorice Moss his job. Since Barden is dealing with back issues, the WR4 job may be Cruz’s for the taking. Otherwise, the only other point I want to make is in regards to the Jacobs-Bradshaw committee situation. It is quite possible the Giants will turn to Bradshaw as their between-the-20s RB and make Jacobs the complement, but I will have to see it to believe it. It may not matter anyway, as neither player is the model of health.

 Philadelphia Eagles
  Totals   GB DET JAX WAS SF ATL TEN bye IND WAS NYG CHI HOU DAL NYG MIN
(Run)     9.4 6.4 6.7 8.2 8.9 6.6 7.8   7.6 8.2 8.3 8.3 7.8 8.8 8.3 9.4
(Pass)     8.3 5.8 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7 7.5   8.8 7.4 8.9 8.3 7.5 7.8 8.9 8.2
                                     
Kevin Kolb 4080 - 235 365 310 170 225 265 290   210 280 310 260 315 230 295 320
TD 23   1 3 2 1 0 2 2   1 2 2 1 3 0 2 1
INT 15   2 1 0 1 3 0 0   2 0 0 2 1 1 2 0
                                     
Michael Vick 260 + 10 0 20 40 55 15 0   15 0 30 0 20 15 0 40
TD 3   0 0 0 1 0 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
INT 1   0 0 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ru Yards 245   5 30 15 0 20 40 10   20 10 10 40 25 5 0 15
Ru TD 3   0 0 1 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
                                     
LeSean McCoy 815 - 50 65 40 70 50 70 40   65 35 55 70 65 40 70 30
Ru TD 5   0 0 0 1 0 1 0   0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 420   30 20 25 15 25 50 35   20 35 30 25 20 15 45 30
Re TD 3   0 0 0 0 0 1 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 53   4 3 3 2 4 5 4   3 5 2 4 3 3 5 3
                                     
Mike Bell 380   30 45 25 20 35 15 30   25 40 10 25 25 10 30 15
Ru TD 5   0 1 0 0 1 0 0   1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 25   0 0 5 0 5 0 0   0 10 0 0 5 0 0 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4   0 0 1 0 1 0 0   0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
                                     
DeSean Jackson 1085 ! 50 110 80 45 75 85 30   20 60 120 75 90 40 80 125
Re TD 7   0 1 1 0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2
Rec 73   4 6 4 3 5 7 2   1 3 7 7 8 2 6 8
                                     
Jeremy Maclin 1040   70 110 70 60 70 70 85   50 45 85 30 65 60 70 100
Re TD 5   0 1 0 1 0 0 1   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 63   5 5 3 4 4 5 6   3 2 6 2 4 3 5 6
                                     
Jason Avant 560   40 50 35 50 40 25 40   60 40 25 30 35 45 20 25
Re TD 2   0 0 1 0 0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45   2 3 3 5 3 2 3   5 3 2 2 3 5 2 2
                                     
Riley Cooper 170   25 0 30 0 20 0 0   20 25 0 0 35 0 0 15
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 9   1 0 2 0 1 0 0   1 2 0 0 1 0 0 1
                                     
Brent Celek 1050 + 55 75 85 40 45 50 100   55 65 80 100 85 70 80 65
Re TD 8   1 1 0 0 0 0 1   0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0
Rec 88   4 5 7 3 4 6 8   5 6 7 10 7 5 6 5

I still believe Kolb owners will miss out on his full potential due to the Eagles’ insistence on getting Vick some snaps each game. However, I’ve decided to give him the benefit of doubt on staying healthy all season long. I see a fair amount of Aaron Rodgers in Kolb and he will be motivated to play through any minor injury in order to prove to the Eagles they made the right choice in keeping the young buck over the grizzled veteran (Donovan McNabb), just as Rodgers has over the last two years following Brett Favre in Green Bay.

 Washington Redskins
  Totals   DAL HOU STL PHI GB IND CHI DET bye PHI TEN MIN NYG TB DAL JAX
(Run)     8.8 7.8 6.2 8 9.4 7.6 8.3 6.4   8 7.8 9.4 8.3 6.2 8.8 6.7
(Pass)     7.8 7.5 6.4 8.2 8.3 8.8 8.3 5.8   8.2 7.5 8.2 8.9 6.4 7.8 7.6
                                     
Donovan McNabb 3175   265 205 245 235 170 200 215 320   235 INJ INJ 215 310 240 320
TD 18   1 2 3 1 0 0 1 2   1 INJ INJ 2 2 0 3
INT 10   1 0 0 2 1 2 0 0   0 INJ INJ 2 0 1 1
Ru Yards 145   15 10 0 15 15 15 5 0   20 INJ INJ 20 10 20 0
Ru TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   1 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
                                     
Rex Grossman 480   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 235 245 0 0 0 0
TD 3   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 1 2 0 0 0 0
INT 4   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 1 3 0 0 0 0
                                     
Clinton Portis 865   55 70 45 55 55 60 35 45   80 35 25 65 110 75 55
Ru TD 5   0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1   0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 205   10 20 0 15 5 5 0 30   15 25 30 5 0 15 30
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 29   2 2 1 3 1 2 0 3   2 4 2 1 0 2 4
                                     
Larry Johnson 710   40 45 80 35 20 45 55 65   30 25 50 45 60 35 80
Ru TD 5   0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 100   5 10 15 0 5 0 20 0   5 15 5 0 15 5 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15   1 1 2 0 1 0 3 0   1 2 1 0 2 1 0
                                     
Santana Moss 900   100 55 80 35 40 35 75 65   55 40 30 85 50 70 85
Re TD 6   1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 70   6 5 5 3 4 3 6 5   4 3 3 7 4 6 6
                                     
Joey Galloway 370   30 15 35 15 30 0 35 20   25 0 40 25 55 25 20
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 24   2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1   2 0 3 2 4 2 1
                                     
Bobby Wade 355   15 15 0 20 15 35 0 45   30 45 25 0 35 30 45
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 31   2 2 0 3 2 2 0 4   2 4 2 0 3 2 3
                                     
Devin Thomas 430   15 25 20 35 20 25 20 50   0 30 35 25 60 30 40
Re TD 3   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1   0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 37   1 2 2 3 2 3 2 4   0 3 2 2 5 2 4
                                     
Chris Cooley 920   65 50 70 85 40 65 65 75   60 65 45 55 70 45 65
Re TD 7   0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1   0 1 1 0 1 0 1
Rec 85   5 4 7 6 4 6 8 6   5 7 4 6 7 4 6
                                     
Fred Davis 375 + 25 15 25 30 15 35 0 35   45 15 35 20 25 20 35
Re TD 4   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0   1 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 35   2 2 3 2 1 3 0 2   4 2 3 2 2 3 4

Change rules the day for just about every member of the Redskins’ passing game. Right off the top, McNabb is a good bet to miss time at some point of the season. Secondly, it would be foolish for me to forecast his 2009 numbers in 2010 in an offense that will pass less to a group of receivers that are not in the class of DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin. In fact, the WR group behind Moss is currently one of the worst in football; however, the TE situation may save McNabb’s fantasy stock. Thomas has the ability to take the WR2 job by the horns if he wants it, but he continues to be an enigma.

NFC NORTH

 Chicago Bears
  Totals   DET DAL GB NYG CAR SEA WAS bye BUF MIN MIA PHI DET NE MIN NYJ
(Run)     6.4 8.8 9.4 8.3 5.8 7.5 8.2   6.1 9.4 7.2 8 6.4 7.4 9.4 9.1
(Pass)     5.8 7.8 8.3 8.9 7.1 8 7.4   6.7 8.2 8 8.2 5.8 7.5 8.2 9.7
                                     
Jay Cutler 4210   330 295 205 305 205 315 280   280 375 235 300 305 240 355 185
TD 28   3 0 2 2 1 3 2   2 3 0 3 2 2 2 1
INT 20   0 2 3 0 2 1 0   2 0 3 2 1 0 2 2
Ru Yards 160   5 10 5 20 10 0 15   5 15 10 25 5 10 10 15
Ru TD 2   0 0 0 1 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
                                     
Matt Forte 860   60 35 65 50 100 40 65   75 35 50 60 55 80 55 35
Ru TD 5   0 0 0 1 1 0 0   1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 365   30 20 10 25 15 10 25   40 55 20 15 35 25 30 10
Re TD 3   0 0 0 0 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 45   4 3 2 3 2 2 3   3 5 3 2 5 4 2 2
                                     
Chester Taylor 580   35 50 35 35 70 45 30   30 35 30 45 60 35 30 15
Ru TD 4   0 1 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 225   15 25 5 15 10 30 10   10 20 10 25 15 10 15 10
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 28   2 2 1 1 2 2 2   1 3 1 2 2 2 3 2
                                     
Devin Hester 840 + 55 70 45 90 40 60 70   40 100 50 25 80 40 75 0
Re TD 5   1 0 0 1 0 0 1   0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 55   3 5 3 6 3 5 4   2 5 4 2 6 1 6 0
                                     
Johnny Knox 1020 ^ 110 75 50 55 50 100 40   60 65 70 45 90 35 120 55
Re TD 6   1 0 1 0 0 1 0   0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 68   7 6 4 4 4 6 3   4 4 7 3 5 2 6 3
                                     
Devin Aromashodu 890 + 75 65 40 70 35 85 65   45 85 30 100 40 60 50 45
Re TD 7   1 0 0 1 0 1 1   0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 65   6 5 2 4 2 6 5   4 6 2 7 3 4 5 4
                                     
Earl Bennett 415   20 30 25 15 40 10 25   35 40 20 30 25 45 35 20
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 33   1 2 2 1 3 1 2   2 3 2 3 2 4 3 2
B Manumaleuna/                                    
Desmond Clark 75   0 10 0 10 5 0 10   5 0 10 20 0 5 0 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10   0 1 0 1 1 0 2   1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0
                                     
Greg Olsen 380 ! 25 0 30 25 10 20 35   45 10 25 40 20 20 30 45
Re TD 4   0 0 1 0 0 0 0   1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 32   2 0 3 2 1 2 2   4 1 2 3 2 3 2 3

Do yourself a favor if you plan on drafting Cutler – draft Ben Roethlisberger or some other top-end reserve. Not only does a Mike Martz offense open the QB up to a number of big shots, but the prospect of owning the QB who faces the Jets in Week 16 is not a sound fantasy championship strategy. I’ll stick with my projection that Cutler will be able to play at 16 games – he hasn’t missed a game since becoming the Broncos’ starter late in the 2006 season – but that doesn’t erase the fact that two of his final three games this season are “cold-weather” contests and the one that is in a warm climate (Week 15 vs. Minnesota) is on the road in the Metrodome against a fierce pass rush. Either way, Knox’s projection has skyrocketed since the preseason began. The second-year wideout has been the one WR of this bunch that had his role set in stone early on and the first preseason game showed me everything I needed to see with regards to how he fits in the offense. In case you didn’t know, Knox is playing Torry Holt’s position in Martz’s offense and, to his credit, he has already flashed that kind of ability.

 Detroit Lions
  Totals   CHI PHI MIN GB STL NYG bye WAS NYJ BUF DAL NE CHI GB TB MIA
(Run)     8.3 8 9.4 9.4 6.2 8.3   8.2 9.1 6.1 8.8 7.4 8.3 9.4 6.2 7.2
(Pass)     8.3 8.2 8.2 8.3 6.4 8.9   7.4 9.7 6.7 7.8 7.5 8.3 8.3 6.4 8
                                     
Matthew Stafford 3760 ^ 280 270 235 215 310 260   255 190 255 205 190 295 240 310 250
TD 24   2 1 2 0 3 2   1 0 3 2 1 2 1 3 1
INT 18   1 2 1 3 0 2   0 2 0 0 2 0 2 1 2
                                     
Jahvid Best 1035 + 60 85 40 55 120 70   60 35 135 65 INJ 85 55 110 60
Ru TD 5   0 1 0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 340   40 20 10 35 15 30   10 15 35 15 INJ 25 15 55 20
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 1 0 INJ 0 0 1 0
Rec 40   5 3 2 4 2 4   2 3 4 1 INJ 3 2 3 2
                                     
Kevin Smith 345   15 10 10 20 15 25   20 10 10 35 70 25 35 20 25
Ru TD 3   0 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 105   5 5 0 5 10 5   10 0 10 15 20 5 10 5 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15   1 1 0 1 1 1   1 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0
                                     
Calvin Johnson 1225   115 80 80 55 150 80   90 30 90 70 INJ 100 120 100 65
Re TD 11   2 0 1 0 2 1   1 0 0 2 INJ 0 1 1 0
Rec 80   7 5 7 4 8 5   6 2 8 6 INJ 5 8 5 4
                                     
Nate Burleson 860   50 65 70 40 55 35   60 50 35 80 75 40 60 65 80
Re TD 5   0 0 1 0 0 1   0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 63   3 5 6 3 5 3   5 4 2 5 6 3 3 6 4
                                     
Bryant Johnson 300   20 30 0 30 25 35   0 20 25 0 35 35 0 30 15
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17   1 2 0 1 2 2   0 1 2 0 2 1 0 2 1
                                     
Brandon Pettigrew 360   15 20 35 15 25 45   30 35 20 0 25 30 15 10 40
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 36   2 2 3 1 2 4   3 5 2 0 3 3 1 1 4
                                     
Tony Scheffler 570 ^ 35 50 40 35 30 30   55 40 40 25 35 60 20 45 30
Re TD 5   0 1 0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 47   3 5 3 3 1 3   5 3 3 2 3 5 2 3 3

I have yet to make any changes to the Lions’ players, so I’ll take this opportunity to plug Scheffler – Detroit wants to use him in the same way the Colts use Dallas Clark. While it would be foolish to expect that level of production from the ex-Bronco, Scheffler may flirt with TE1 status in fantasy this year regardless. Also, I want to take a second to speak on the behalf of Best. Smith has no right to steal goal-line carries from him, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. I will monitor this situation closely, because if Best is truly a feature back, he could easily move into the discussion of running backs worthy of being selected in the second round of 12-team PPR leagues.

 Green Bay Packers
  Totals   PHI BUF CHI DET WAS MIA MIN NYJ DAL bye MIN ATL SF DET NE NYG
(Run)     8 6.1 8.3 6.4 8.2 7.2 9.4 9.1 8.8   9.4 6.6 8.9 6.4 7.4 8.3
(Pass)     8.2 6.7 8.3 5.8 7.4 8 8.2 9.7 7.8   8.2 7.7 7.9 5.8 7.5 8.9
                                     
Aaron Rodgers 4340   315 240 225 330 325 270 345 210 270   335 325 235 305 270 340
TD 30   3 1 3 3 2 1 3 0 2   2 2 1 2 2 3
INT 10   1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1   2 1 0 1 0 1
Ru Yards 305   20 5 30 10 25 15 25 20 25   40 10 30 10 25 15
Ru TD 4   1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1   0 0 1 0 0 0
                                     
Ryan Grant 1115   55 115 65 75 60 80 55 40 65   75 120 80 75 65 90
Ru TD 10   0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 1   0 2 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 210   10 0 20 5 25 15 40 20 0   15 0 10 10 25 15
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26   1 1 3 1 3 2 4 2 0   2 0 1 2 3 1
                                     
Brandon Jackson 120   15 0 5 20 0 10 0 10 0   0 5 20 30 5 0
Ru TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 160   20 10 10 0 0 35 15 10 5   5 10 15 20 5 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22   3 1 1 0 0 3 2 2 1   1 1 3 3 1 0
                                     
James Starks 260 ^ 15 15 10 20 25 10 20 35 25   10 15 INJ INJ 45 15
Ru TD 2   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0   0 0 INJ INJ 1 0
Re Yards 185   10 0 5 10 15 5 0 15 25   25 35 INJ INJ 15 25
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 17   1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 3   2 2 INJ INJ 1 2
                                     
Greg Jennings 1065   80 100 40 120 70 55 60 20 80   75 90 40 70 110 55
Re TD 9   1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1   1 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 72   6 4 3 7 5 4 5 2 5   5 6 3 6 7 4
                                     
Donald Driver 760 ! 40 50 35 70 55 65 40 40 55   100 70 35 25 35 45
Re TD 4   0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 58   3 4 2 5 4 6 3 3 4   6 5 4 2 3 4
                                     
James Jones 405   25 0 30 50 35 40 55 0 45   15 0 20 50 0 40
Re TD 3   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1   0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 22   1 0 2 3 1 2 3 0 3   1 0 2 2 0 2
                                     
Jordy Nelson 480 + 50 20 10 15 45 0 35 55 25   35 30 15 60 40 45
Re TD 3   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 40   3 2 1 1 3 0 3 5 2   3 3 1 6 3 4
                                     
Jermichael Finley 1075 ^ 80 60 75 60 80 55 100 50 35   65 90 100 70 40 115
Re TD 11   2 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 0   0 1 1 0 0 2
Rec 81   6 5 7 5 6 4 6 3 4   5 6 8 5 3 8

Much like I did with Austin and Romo above, I added another score to Jennings’ total. Once the line improved its pass blocking and Rodgers sped up his decision making last season, Jennings became a weapon again. However, I firmly believe this passing game will rely heavily on Finley, who the Packers have announced will see time in the slot this season (a role that Driver had been placed in recent years). Nelson, not Jones, appears to be moving into the WR3 role in this incredible passing attack, so the former Kansas State product could be a very savvy selection late in drafts, especially if Driver’s surgically-repaired knees are not able to take another 16-game season.

 Minnesota Vikings
  Totals   NO MIA DET bye NYJ DAL GB NE ARI CHI GB WAS BUF NYG CHI PHI
(Run)     7.4 7.2 6.4   9.1 8.8 9.4 7.4 8.5 8.3 9.4 8.2 6.1 8.3 8.3 8
(Pass)     7.8 8 5.8   9.7 7.8 8.3 7.5 7.4 8.3 8.3 7.4 6.7 8.9 8.3 8.2
                                     
Brett Favre 3755 ! 285 250 275   160 180 270 230 305 300 235 265 200 285 240 275
TD 26   2 1 1   0 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 0 2 2 3
INT 13   2 1 0   2 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1
                                     
Adrian Peterson 1400   110 80 110   65 85 65 100 50 110 90 80 150 70 130 105
Ru TD 17   2 0 1   1 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 3 0 2 1
Re Yards 435   30 40 25   25 10 15 20 50 25 15 65 20 35 25 35
Re TD 0   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 46   4 3 2   5 2 1 3 6 1 3 5 2 4 2 3
                                     
Toby Gerhart 325   20 15 35   10 15 20 35 20 15 20 15 30 25 15 35
Ru TD 3   0 0 1   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 45   5 0 5   0 5 0 0 10 0 0 5 5 0 10 0
Re TD 0   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8   1 0 1   0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
                                     
Percy Harvin 130   15 0 10   5 0 5 15 25 0 10 INJ 20 15 0 10
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 955   55 80 60   45 30 75 65 90 105 55 INJ 45 80 70 100
Re TD 7   0 1 0   0 0 1 0 1 1 0 INJ 0 1 1 1
Rec 66   4 6 5   3 2 5 4 7 6 4 INJ 3 5 6 6
                                     
Sidney Rice 1015 - 45 55 65   15 80 50 100 45 75 65 110 80 70 100 60
Ru TD 6   0 0 0   0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 66   2 3 4   1 6 4 7 3 5 4 8 5 4 6 4
                                     
Bernard Berrian 725   75 30 85   25 30 80 35 55 75 35 70 40 30 25 35
Re TD 5   1 0 1   0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 47   5 2 6   2 3 5 2 3 4 2 6 2 2 1 2
                                     
Visanthe Shiancoe 580   75 45 35   50 25 50 10 55 20 65 15 10 70 10 45
Re TD 8   1 0 0   0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 53   5 5 3   6 2 4 1 4 3 5 2 1 5 2 5

Football hasn’t officially started until Favre says it has. He’s practicing now, but the Vikings’ passing game sure has the appearance of a wood house that looks aesthetically pleasing from the outside but is being torn apart by termites on the inside. Favre’s ankle, Harvin’s continued problems with migraines and Rice’s hip are all issues that bear watching. I still only have Harvin missing one contest, but after Thursday’s scare (when Harvin collapsed during practice), that may be a bit optimistic. Recent reports on Rice suggest his status for Week 1 is “up in the air” and we all know about Favre’s ankle. Minnesota may need Berrian and Shiancoe more than it ever expected this season.

NFC SOUTH

 Atlanta Falcons
      PIT ARI NO SF CLE PHI CIN bye TB BAL STL GB TB CAR SEA NO
(Run)     9.3 8.5 7.4 8.9 7.4 8 8.8   6.2 9.4 6.2 9.4 6.2 5.8 7.5 7.4
(Pass)     8.5 7.4 7.8 7.9 6.7 8.2 9.1   6.4 7.2 6.4 8.3 6.4 7.1 8 7.8
                                     
Matt Ryan 3910   250 305 285 230 280 250 215   300 285 225 235 310 235 240 265
TD 23   1 2 2 0 3 2 1   2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1
INT 14   1 0 3 0 0 2 1   1 0 0 2 1 1 2 0
                                     
Michael Turner 1465   50 80 95 65 140 90 75   125 60 140 80 115 140 110 100
Ru TD 14   0 1 1 0 2 0 1   2 0 2 0 1 2 1 1
Re Yards 115   5 0 15 15 0 10 15   0 10 5 0 15 0 5 20
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15   1 0 2 1 0 2 1   0 2 1 0 2 0 1 2
                                     
Jason Snelling 285   15 20 30 25 15 25 30   20 10 10 30 20 10 10 15
Ru TD 2   0 0 0 1 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 185   15 30 10 25 15 0 25   10 10 0 10 5 10 10 10
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22   2 2 1 3 2 0 2   1 1 0 2 1 2 1 2
                                     
Jerious Norwood 180   10 0 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ   15 20 25 10 35 10 30 15
Ru TD 1   0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 145   10 10 30 INJ INJ INJ INJ   20 0 0 10 20 10 15 20
Re TD 0   0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15   1 1 3 INJ INJ INJ INJ   2 0 0 1 2 1 1 3
                                     
Roddy White 1340   90 105 75 85 115 90 40   125 120 75 50 115 85 70 100
Re TD 10   1 0 1 0 2 1 0   1 2 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 84   6 5 4 6 8 7 3   8 7 6 3 6 5 4 6
                                     
Michael Jenkins 495   20 50 40 15 20 35 20   40 45 35 60 30 40 30 15
Re TD 3   0 1 0 0 0 0 0   0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 39   2 4 3 1 2 3 2   4 3 2 5 2 3 2 1
                                     
Harry Douglas 570   45 30 45 25 50 15 45   30 40 45 50 35 20 55 40
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 45   4 3 3 2 3 1 3   2 3 4 5 3 1 4 4
Brian Finneran/                                    
Kerry Meier 130   10 15 0 10 20 0 20   0 10 0 10 15 10 0 10
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13   1 1 0 1 2 0 2   0 1 0 1 2 1 0 1
                                     
Tony Gonzalez 930   55 65 70 55 60 100 50   75 50 65 45 75 60 55 50
Re TD 8   0 1 1 0 0 1 1   1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 82   5 7 6 5 5 8 4   6 5 6 4 6 6 4 5

I was aware of the coaching staff’s intention to make Turner more of a threat in the passing game this season when I released my NFC South projections last week, but I wasn’t ready to believe it after a single mention by a beat writer and one preseason game. But after seeing Turner get a couple more catches in Week 2 of the preseason against the Patriots, I can buy it a bit more now. Unlike his clone in New York (Shonn Greene), Turner and HC Mike Smith don’t joke about his bad hands, it’s more that he just hasn’t been used in the passing game a great deal in his career. Therefore, I’m willing to go as high as 15 catches for him, meaning Turner only needs to average one catch per game.

 Carolina Panthers
      NYG TB CIN NO CHI bye SF STL NO TB BAL CLE SEA ATL ARI PIT
(Run)     8.3 6.2 8.8 7.4 8.3   8.9 6.2 7.4 6.2 9.4 7.4 7.5 6.6 8.5 9.3
(Pass)     8.9 6.4 9.1 7.8 8.3   7.9 6.4 7.8 6.4 7.2 6.7 8 7.7 7.4 8.5
                                     
Matt Moore 3405   200 165 265 270 210   215 225 245 280 240 215 205 210 275 185
TD 19   1 1 1 2 1   0 2 1 2 2 2 1 0 3 0
INT 13   0 0 1 2 1   2 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 2
                                     
DeAngelo Williams 1280   75 150 65 110 45   75 125 60 115 45 120 60 130 55 50
Ru TD 9   1 2 0 1 0   1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 305   25 10 35 15 20   30 0 15 20 20 0 35 10 55 15
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 28   2 1 3 2 2   2 0 2 1 3 0 2 1 5 2
                                     
Jonathan Stewart 990   45 100 70 55 110   30 80 85 70 45 60 75 80 50 35
Ru TD 12   0 1 1 0 2   0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1
Re Yards 170   10 10 15 10 0   15 5 15 35 10 20 0 10 5 10
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 21   2 1 2 1 0   2 1 2 3 2 2 0 1 1 1
                                     
Steve Smith 1270   80 50 75 65 100   80 125 75 80 130 100 55 70 115 70
Re TD 9   1 1 0 0 1   0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 82   6 3 5 5 8   5 6 4 4 9 7 4 5 6 5
                                     
Brandon LaFell 685   40 50 70 45 35   40 55 35 60 INJ 45 40 50 75 45
Re TD 3   0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 49   3 4 4 3 2   3 4 3 5 INJ 4 3 3 5 3
                                     
Armanti Edwards 365   10 10 25 50 30   25 0 40 20 25 0 60 25 25 20
Re TD 2   0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 27   1 1 2 2 2   2 0 4 2 2 0 3 2 2 2
                                     
Dwayne Jarrett 240   10 0 15 25 0   25 15 35 30 40 10 0 20 0 15
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19   1 0 2 2 0   2 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 0 1
                                     
Dante Rosario 370   25 35 30 60 25   0 25 30 35 15 40 15 25 0 10
Re TD 3   0 0 0 1 0   0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 29   2 3 3 4 2   0 2 3 2 1 3 1 2 0 1

No changes with my forecast in Carolina, so I’ll take a moment to restate that LaFell is enjoying a fine camp and reportedly receiving more and more first-team snaps, although the Panthers’ WRs coach Tyke Tolbert has said he’s open to a committee approach opposite Smith. We’ll see. HC John Fox has a long history of playing veterans over equally or more talented rookies, but Jarrett also has a long history of not carrying over his play in practice during the week to Sunday.

 New Orleans Saints
      MIN SF ATL CAR ARI TB CLE PIT CAR bye SEA DAL CIN STL BAL ATL
(Run)     9.4 8.9 6.6 5.8 8.5 6.2 7.4 9.3 5.8   7.5 8.8 8.8 6.2 9.4 6.6
(Pass)     8.2 7.9 7.7 7.1 7.4 6.4 6.7 8.5 7.1   8 7.8 9.1 6.4 7.2 7.7
                                     
Drew Brees 4170   260 265 335 195 340 330 310 230 240   245 255 260 255 365 285
TD 35   2 2 4 0 3 2 4 2 2   3 2 2 1 4 2
INT 10   0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 2   0 2 1 0 1 1
                                     
Pierre Thomas 910   60 75 80 110 45 INJ INJ 50 65   100 70 60 90 40 65
Ru TD 7   0 1 1 2 0 INJ INJ 0 0   1 0 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 250   25 15 25 10 30 INJ INJ 20 20   40 15 10 10 20 10
Re TD 3   0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1   1 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 30   2 2 3 1 3 INJ INJ 3 3   4 2 1 2 3 1
                                     
Reggie Bush 485   25 15 35 60 25 40 50 15 80   INJ INJ 25 65 10 40
Ru TD 4   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1   INJ INJ 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 445   35 45 25 20 50 25 70 10 15   INJ INJ 45 20 65 20
Re TD 4   0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0   INJ INJ 0 0 1 0
Rec 46   3 4 3 2 4 2 6 1 3   INJ INJ 5 4 6 3
                                     
Marques Colston 1150   70 80 90 35 120 70 125 65 50   40 100 85 35 130 55
Re TD 11   1 0 1 0 1 0 2 1 1   0 1 1 0 2 0
Rec 78   5 5 7 2 7 5 8 4 4   3 8 6 2 8 4
                                     
Robert Meachem 785 ! 30 40 45 50 55 85 40 45 65   70 45 30 60 75 50
Re TD 6   0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0   1 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 49   2 3 2 4 3 6 2 3 4   6 2 1 4 4 3
                                     
Devery Henderson 485   35 20 60 15 20 45 0 35 45   50 20 0 40 30 70
Re TD 3   1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27   1 2 2 2 1 2 0 2 2   3 2 0 2 2 4
                                     
Lance Moore 610   35 40 45 40 25 55 40 35 15   45 55 65 55 20 40
Re TD 4   0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0   0 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 52   2 3 4 3 3 5 4 3 2   4 4 6 4 2 3
                                     
Jeremy Shockey 445   30 25 45 25 40 50 35 20 30   INJ 20 25 35 25 40
Re TD 4   0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0   INJ 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 41   3 2 5 2 4 4 3 2 2   INJ 2 2 3 2 5

The only alteration I made with the Saints from last week’s projections is adding another TD reception to Thomas’ total, which naturally gives Brees one more as well. I’m interested to see how new arrival Ladell Betts is used once he fully recovers from his knee surgery. Is he the eventual successor to Lynell Hamilton’s TD vulture role? Does he even make the team? Considering the team has been thrilled with the play of undrafted free agent RB Christopher Ivory – who at 6-0 and 225 pounds has the size coaches like to see in their short-yardage runners nowadays – Betts may not stick around very long.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
      CLE CAR PIT bye CIN NO STL ARI ATL CAR SF BAL ATL WAS DET SEA
(Run)     7.4 5.8 9.3   8.8 7.4 6.2 8.5 6.6 5.8 8.9 9.4 6.6 8.2 6.4 7.5
(Pass)     6.7 7.1 8.5   9.1 7.8 6.4 7.4 7.7 7.1 7.9 7.2 7.7 7.4 5.8 8
                                     
Josh Freeman 3585 + 280 245 190   190 255 250 250 285 175 205 255 265 205 270 265
TD 18   2 1 1   0 1 2 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 2 2
INT 18   1 1 2   3 2 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 230   20 15 15   15 25 5 20 15 35 10 15 10 20 10 0
Ru TD 3   0 1 0   1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                     
Cadillac Williams 945   100 90 40   60 80 105 30 50 110 40 40 INJ 70 90 40
Ru TD 6   1 1 0   0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 INJ 0 1 0
Re Yards 255   15 25 0   20 40 0 25 35 10 20 10 INJ 25 15 15
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 32   2 3 0   4 5 0 3 3 1 3 2 INJ 2 2 2
Derrick Ward/                                    
Kareem Huggins 615   35 45 35   45 45 15 55 70 25 40 15 80 30 25 55
Ru TD 3   0 0 0   1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 175   10 5 10   15 5 10 10 15 15 5 15 30 0 5 25
Re TD 1   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 26   2 1 1   2 1 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 0 1 3
                                     
Arrelious Benn 710 + 25 30 55   40 25 55 45 65 10 40 80 75 60 45 60
Re TD 5   0 0 1   0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 49   2 2 4   3 1 4 2 4 1 3 7 4 4 3 5
                                     
Mike Williams 855 !/^ 80 55 45   35 80 85 40 45 25 35 100 40 60 85 45
Re TD 6   1 0 0   0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0
Rec 54   5 5 3   2 6 5 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 6 3
                                     
Sammie Stroughter 385   30 25 15   0 25 25 40 35 45 30 0 25 30 20 40
Re TD 0   0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 37   2 3 2   0 2 2 4 3 4 3 0 4 3 2 3
                                     
Maurice Stovall 405   50 40 20   25 35 15 55 20 15 30 15 35 0 20 30
Re TD 1   0 1 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30   4 4 2   1 3 1 4 1 2 2 1 2 0 1 2
                                     
Kellen Winslow 800   70 65 45   55 45 60 35 70 55 45 35 60 30 80 50
Re TD 4   1 0 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 77   5 7 5   6 4 6 3 7 5 5 3 5 4 7 5

The Bucs cannot stop raving about Mike Williams. Very few have ever questioned his talent, but many have questioned his ability to stay in the league (myself included). Still, the rookie WR out of Syracuse has done all the right things so far and should be treated as Tampa Bay’s clear-cut WR1 and I acknowledge that even with his gaudy projection above, I still may be underselling him. Because Benn hasn’t taken off quite like I expected him to, it is worth mentioning that Stroughter may have already been named as the starter opposite Williams. Here’s another situation worth keeping an eye on – Ward vs. Huggins. In case you haven’t been following Bucs’ camp (you know who you are), Huggins is a 5-9, 198-pound undrafted free agent RB from Hofstra who has skyrocketed up the depth chart by giving the Bucs an explosive, big-play threat out of the backfield. He has been so good, in fact, that Ward’s roster spot is now in question. A time share with Cadillac Williams is probably setting the bar a bit high, but he could easily be a 6-8 touch/game backfield complement to Cadillac.

NFC WEST

 Arizona Cardinals
      STL ATL OAK SD NO bye SEA TB MIN SEA KC SF STL DEN CAR DAL
(Run)     6.2 6.6 8.2 7.2 7.4   7.5 6.2 9.4 7.5 6.5 8.9 6.2 7.1 5.8 8.8
(Pass)     6.4 7.7 8.2 7.7 7.8   8 6.4 8.2 8 7.2 7.9 6.4 8.1 7.1 7.8
                                     
Matt Leinart 3590   240 220 195 275 265   215 260 330 250 235 190 215 255 195 250
TD 22   1 1 0 2 2   2 2 2 2 1 0 2 2 1 2
INT 16   1 2 2 0 2   2 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 2
                                     
Derek Anderson 55   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0 0
TD 1   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
INT 1   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
                                     
Chris Wells 1245   80 65 70 110 65   75 100 40 90 120 55 110 80 120 65
Ru TD 9   1 0 0 1 0   0 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 0
Re Yards 160   15 10 0 20 10   15 5 10 10 0 25 10 15 0 15
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19   2 1 0 2 1   2 1 2 1 0 2 1 2 0 2
                                     
Tim Hightower 605   50 45 30 45 30   45 65 50 35 30 25 50 45 35 25
Ru TD 6   1 0 1 0 1   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 385   25 40 15 20 55   20 15 65 15 15 20 30 20 15 15
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 49   3 5 3 3 6   3 2 7 2 2 3 3 3 1 3
                                     
Larry Fitzgerald 1115   80 60 45 105 50   70 115 65 110 75 40 130 40 55 75
Re TD 9   1 0 0 2 0   0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1
Rec 81   6 5 5 7 4   5 7 4 8 6 4 8 2 4 6
                                     
Steve Breaston 785 + 50 35 65 45 50   50 35 100 50 40 35 50 70 45 65
Re TD 4   0 0 0 0 1   1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 64   4 3 6 3 5   4 3 6 4 4 3 4 6 4 5
                                     
Early Doucet 860 ^ 50 75 40 60 70   35 55 75 40 70 65 35 100 55 35
Re TD 6   0 1 0 0 1   0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 65   3 6 4 4 6   3 5 4 3 5 4 2 6 6 4
                                     
Andre Roberts 205   15 0 20 10 15   25 15 0 25 25 0 15 0 15 25
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0 0   1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15   1 0 2 1 1   1 2 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 2
                                     
Ben Patrick 135   5 0 10 15 15   0 20 15 0 10 5 0 10 10 20
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14   1 0 1 1 2   0 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 2

I adjusted the projected totals of Fitzgerald ever so slightly once news came out this week that Oakland intends on using CB Nnamdi Asomugha to “shadow” opponents’ WR1 this season. If Kurt Warner was still taking snaps, I may have left my projection unchanged, but Leinart obviously does not inspire the same amount of confidence. Fitzgerald is as good as it gets at his position, but as we all know, elite cover corners like Asomugha can exploit even the smallest gap in accuracy or decision making from a QB.

 St. Louis Rams
      ARI OAK WAS SEA at DET SD TB CAR bye SF ATL DEN ARI NO KC SF
(Run)     8.5 8.2 8.5 7.5 6.4 7.2 6.2 5.8   8.9 6.6 7.1 8.5 7.4 6.5 8.9
(Pass)     7.4 8.2 7.4 8 5.8 7.7 6.4 7.1   7.9 7.7 8.1 7.4 7.8 7.2 7.9
                                     
Sam Bradford 3015   225 155 245 195 225 220 165 175   135 240 170 190 250 235 190
TD 13   1 0 2 1 2 2 0 1   0 1 1 0 1 1 0
INT 20   2 3 0 1 1 0 1 2   3 0 1 1 3 0 2
                                     
Steven Jackson 1500   70 80 90 85 125 115 130 150   60 120 90 70 110 130 75
Ru TD 8   0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2   0 1 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 455   40 30 55 20 15 50 15 20   10 65 35 25 50 10 15
Re TD 1   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 60   5 4 6 4 3 6 2 3   2 6 5 4 5 2 3
                                     
Donnie Avery 655   45 65 80 40 85 40 25 35   40 65 10 INJ 45 50 30
Re TD 3   0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0   0 1 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 40   3 4 4 2 5 3 2 2   3 4 1 INJ 2 3 2
                                     
Laurent Robinson 600   75 10 45 65 50 INJ INJ INJ   INJ 70 55 70 65 40 55
Re TD 4   1 0 0 1 1 INJ INJ INJ   INJ 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 46   5 1 5 6 4 INJ INJ INJ   INJ 5 3 6 4 3 4
                                     
Brandon Gibson 605   30 40 25 45 15 70 50 55   45 25 55 40 25 50 35
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 48   2 3 2 3 1 5 4 3   4 2 5 4 1 5 4
                                     
Danny Amendola 310   10 0 10 15 25 20 45 30   20 15 0 30 25 35 30
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 28   1 0 1 2 2 3 4 2   2 1 0 3 2 3 2
                                     
Daniel Fells 390   25 10 30 10 35 40 30 35   20 0 15 25 40 50 25
Re TD 3   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1   0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 36   2 1 3 1 3 4 3 3   2 0 2 2 3 5 2

Much as I did with Fitzgerald, I gave Robinson the “Asomugha treatment”. Otherwise, life in St. Louis appears much the same as it did last week. Outside of Jackson, it is really hard to get excited about anything fantasy-wise here. Robinson and Avery are both late-round values, but should not be counted on for anything more than bench roles in 12-team fantasy leagues. Amendola, who has reportedly locked up the slot duties in the Rams’ offense, takes the spot of Keenan Burton.

 San Francisco 49ers
      SEA NO KC ATL PHI OAK CAR DEN bye STL TB ARI GB SEA SD STL
(Run)     7.5 7.4 6.5 6.6 8 8.2 5.8 7.1   6.2 6.2 8.5 9.4 7.5 7.2 6.2
(Pass)     8 7.8 7.2 7.7 8.2 8.2 7.1 8.1   6.4 6.4 7.4 8.3 8 7.7 6.4
                                     
Alex Smith 3610   270 215 225 270 235 155 185 200   290 270 235 225 260 320 255
TD 22   1 2 2 2 1 0 2 1   2 2 1 0 1 2 3
INT 14   2 1 0 3 1 1 0 0   1 0 2 2 0 1 0
Ru Yards 90   5 10 0 5 15 5 10 0   0 5 15 10 0 10 0
Ru TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                     
Frank Gore 1385   65 105 140 125 30 INJ 150 70   110 120 55 65 125 120 105
Ru TD 11   1 0 2 1 0 INJ 2 0   1 1 0 1 1 1 0
Re Yards 365   35 20 55 25 5 INJ 15 30   25 10 40 10 30 60 5
Re TD 2   0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 43   3 2 5 3 1 INJ 2 4   4 2 5 3 3 5 1
                                     
Brian Westbrook 295   15 10 20 10 15 70 15 15   20 15 10 15 10 15 40
Ru TD 2   0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 65   0 5 0 5 20 15 0 5   0 0 5 5 0 0 5
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11   0 1 0 1 3 2 0 1   0 0 1 1 0 0 1
                                     
Michael Crabtree 1000   85 60 75 65 40 40 70 35   100 60 85 50 70 100 65
Re TD 6   1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0   1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 76   6 5 7 5 4 3 5 3   7 4 6 4 6 6 5
                                     
Josh Morgan 540   45 35 30 25 35 10 10 60   45 35 35 20 50 30 75
Re TD 3   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1   0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 46   4 3 3 3 4 1 1 5   4 2 3 2 4 3 4
                                     
Jason Hill 170   0 0 20 45 5 0 15 0   0 20 0 25 15 0 25
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 10   0 0 1 2 1 0 1 0   1 1 0 1 1 0 1
                                     
Ted Ginn 405   35 30 0 35 25 50 0 20   50 45 25 35 25 20 10
Re TD 1   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30   2 2 0 2 2 4 0 2   2 4 2 3 2 2 1
                                     
Vernon Davis 1065   70 65 45 70 105 40 75 50   70 100 45 80 70 110 70
Re TD 9   0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0   1 2 0 0 0 2 0
Rec 83   6 5 3 6 7 4 6 4   5 7 4 7 5 8 6

No changes for the 49ers from last week, but I have been intrigued by the growing notion that Westbrook will steal some value from Gore this year – mostly because I can’t see it happening. I see Westbrook’s signing as a savvy move by the front office to guard against a likely injury to Gore, at which point I imagine Westbrook would become a lead back in a committee with rookie Anthony Dixon. Let’s remember that Westbrook, who will be 31 when the season starts, only gave the Eagles 86 touches last season and has a bone-on-bone issue with his knee as well as a history with concussions now.

 Seattle Seahawks
      SF DEN SD STL bye CHI ARI OAK NYG ARI NO KC CAR SF ATL TB
(Run)     8.9 7.1 7.2 6.2   8.3 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.5 7.4 6.5 5.8 8.9 6.6 6.2
(Pass)     7.9 8.1 7.7 6.4   8.3 7.4 8.2 8.9 7.4 7.8 7.2 7.1 7.9 7.7 6.4
                                     
Matt Hasselbeck 2950 - 205 245 325 270   205 235 180 INJ INJ INJ 275 220 220 275 295
TD 18   1 1 2 2   1 2 0 INJ INJ INJ 3 2 0 2 2
INT 15   1 2 1 0   3 0 3 INJ INJ INJ 0 2 2 0 1
                                     
Charlie Whitehurst 660 - 0 0 0 0   0 0 0 265 190 205 0 0 0 0 0
TD 3   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
INT 8   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0
                                     
Julius Jones 490 - 15 35 20 65   15 50 10 45 INJ 25 25 60 40 20 65
Ru TD 3   0 0 0 1   0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 105   0 10 10 20   0 20 5 15 INJ 5 0 15 0 0 5
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16   0 2 1 2   0 3 1 2 INJ 1 0 2 0 0 2
                                     
Justin Forsett 740 + 50 75 50 35   55 20 40 25 70 65 105 35 30 45 40
Ru TD 4   0 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 255   15 10 40 5   15 5 15 35 20 15 30 10 5 15 20
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 31   2 2 3 1   2 1 2 3 3 2 4 1 1 2 2
                                     
Leon Washington 525   20 10 65 30   40 10 65 15 40 20 35 45 20 75 35
Ru TD 3   0 0 1 0   0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 295   10 40 15 25   20 15 20 25 10 25 20 25 10 25 10
Re TD 0   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 31   1 3 2 2   2 2 3 2 1 4 2 2 2 2 1
                                     
TJ Houshmandzadeh 845   45 35 75 50   50 70 25 35 50 45 100 45 60 75 85
Re TD 5   0 0 1 0   0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 79   4 3 7 6   6 7 3 5 4 4 8 5 4 7 6
                                     
Deion Branch 320   25 30 15 40   40 15 35 20 INJ INJ 10 0 35 40 15
Re TD 1   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 23   2 2 1 3   2 1 3 2 INJ INJ 1 0 2 3 1
                                     
Golden Tate 545   25 65 40 50   30 35 15 30 50 25 15 35 45 55 30
Re TD 3   0 1 0 0   1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 38   2 4 2 3   3 2 1 2 4 2 1 4 4 3 1
                                     
Deon Butler 270   20 15 35 10   0 25 10 20 10 20 10 20 35 0 40
Re TD 2   0 0 0 0   0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 23   2 1 2 1   0 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 0 4
                                     
Mike Williams 150   5 0 15 0   10 15 0 20 10 0 10 15 0 20 30
Re TD 2   1 0 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 14   1 0 1 0   1 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 2 2
                                     
John Carlson 825   60 40 80 70   40 35 55 65 40 70 80 55 30 45 60
Re TD 7   0 0 1 2   0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
Rec 73   6 5 6 5   3 4 4 5 4 6 7 5 3 4 6

If any team this year has embraced the new NFL, it is the Seahawks. With an injury-prone QB, a three-headed approach at RB and four receivers legitimately vying for the WR2 spot opposite Houshmandzadeh, the depth chart will get a good workout in 2010. Since the RB situation hasn’t changed over the last week, I’ll take this time to discuss the receivers. Williams impressed with his long catch-and-run score in the first preseason game and Butler appears to be coming on in camp while Tate has reportedly regressed. I’ll stick by original opinion with this WR corps, which was the collective WR2 spot will be productive, but it will be hard to grab another WR besides Houshmandzadeh for fantasy purposes because the numbers for the second WR spot will be split in three or four different directions. Fantasy owners in very deep leagues are advised on taking a shot on Williams, who finally appears to be “getting it”. Whether that translates into a roster spot or starting job down the road is certainly up for debate, but he is the most physically-talented WR on this team.

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