Super Bowl
2/3/11
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in
cruising to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your
teams' inability to close the deal in your fantasy postseason
or just aren't ready to hang up your owner's hat quite yet, playoff
fantasy football may be just the thing you need to end this season
right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
After getting my first taste of owning multiple teams in playoff
leagues last year (and making a bit of money from it, I’m
expanding my horizons this time around. In addition to owning
one NFL.com team, I will be taking part in several money leagues
with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks
will be to help each of you through your decision-making process
as you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click
on this link. However, much of the content immediately below
is included on the “How to Play” page, so what I provide
here should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The object of the game is to pick the players you think will
perform best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs,
two WRs, one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points
based on their on-field performance during their game, and if
your player's team wins, you will have the option to carry that
player over to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point
modifier to his score.
For example, if you pick Drew Brees in the Wild Card round
and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Divisional Round,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championships for 3x his points, and if the Saints
win again, you can carry him into the Super Bowl and earn 4x his
points. In addition, a user can select a player in the Wild Card
round even if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round.
In this case, the user would not earn any points for the Wild
Card round, but would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the
Divisional round, since the player was on the team’s roster
for 2 weekly scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would
also apply as long as that player’s team continued in the
NFL Playoffs.
NFL.com Scoring System |
Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) |
Fantasy Points |
Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Passing Touchdown: |
4 fantasy points |
Field Goal: |
3 fantasy points |
Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion: |
2 fantasy points |
Rushing or Receiving: |
1 fantasy point per 10 yards |
Passing: |
1 fantasy point per 25 yards |
Extra Point: |
1 fantasy point |
Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |
|
Punt Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Kickoff Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Fumble Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Interception Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Allowing 0 Points: |
10 fantasy points |
Allowing 2-6 Points: |
7 fantasy points |
Allowing 7-13 Points: |
4 fantasy points |
Allowing 14-17 Points: |
1 fantasy points |
Allowing 18-21 Points: |
0 fantasy points |
Allowing 22-27 Points: |
-1 fantasy points |
Allowing 28-34 Points: |
-4 fantasy points |
Allowing 35-45 Points: |
-7 fantasy points |
Allowing 46+ Points: |
-10 fantasy points |
Team Win: |
5 fantasy points |
Interception: |
2 fantasy points |
Fumble Recovery: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Punt: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point: |
2 fantasy points |
Safety: |
2 fantasy points |
Sack: |
1 fantasy points |
|
Let’s get right into the most worthy candidates by position:
QBs
Ben Roethlisberger/Aaron Rodgers
RBs
Rashard Mendenhall/Brandon Jackson/James Starks
WRs
Mike Wallace/Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Antonio Brown/Greg Jennings/James
Jones/Donald Driver/Jordy Nelson
TEs
Heath Miller/Andrew Quarless
Ks
Shaun Suisham/Mason Crosby
D/ST
Steelers/Packers
Let’s get to my picks and my rationale for each position:
QB: Rodgers (x4). There’s
really no question at this point what QB I will be using in the
Super Bowl, so let’s instead take a deeper look at why Rodgers
would be the pick even without the bonus point modifier.
In the Packers and the Steelers, Super Bowl XLV is getting an
intriguing matchup between two teams that are more alike than
you think. Both offenses do a great job of sticking with the run
– even when it is not working – even though each team
knows its QB is the straw that stirs its drink. Both teams go
four-deep at WR and sprinkle in the TE when necessary (in Green
Bay’s case, Jermichael Finley would have been a featured
part of the gameplan all season long and in this game as well
had he remained healthy). On defense, both teams run an aggressive
3-4 defense with great point men (NTs B.J. Raji and Casey Hampton)
and All-Pro caliber OLBs (James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Clay
Matthews). The similarities are almost endless, so suffice it
to say that Green Bay and Pittsburgh are almost like long-lost
brothers, which some come as little surprise since Packers DC
Dom Capers used to work for Steelers DC Dick LeBeau and the two
remain close to this day.
In the end, there are a few key factors that sway me towards
Rodgers as the pick: 1) the Steelers’ run defense, 2) the
quality of Pittsburgh’s defensive backs beyond CB Ike Taylor
and S Troy Polamalu and 3) Green Bay’s overall reliance
on Rodgers to “be” the offense. Some teams have enjoyed
limited success against the Steelers’ run defense, but overall
if an opponent is going to score on Pittsburgh, it will come via
the pass. Taylor has emerged as an under-the-radar “shadow”
CB recently and Polamalu is already well-known for his ability
to always be around the ball, but if there is a weak part of the
Steelers’ defense, it is the secondary aside from those
two DBs. As for the Packers’ reliance on Rodgers, it has
been that way for most of the season, but will be even more evident
in Super Bowl XLV because the Steelers’ run defense is just
that good.
RB: Mendenhall (2x) and Starks.
Because we have reached the final game of the NFL season and with
this being a non-PPR scoring format, there are really only two
candidates worth considering (unless you have a strong feeling
John Kuhn will score a short TD against a defense that has allowed
a total of five scores to the RB position all season long, including
the playoffs). With C Maurkice Pouncey likely out (or extremely
limited) for the Super Bowl, Mendenhall’s job just got that
much tougher. By all accounts, Pouncey has been the rock of the
offensive line, if not its best player all season long. Then again,
he has been dealing with a different offensive line combination
seemingly every week, so maybe we shouldn’t expect that
much of a dropoff from the Steelers’ RB.
Even though the Packers’ backfield is technically still
a three-man committee, Starks is starting to command more and
more of the workload. Whether or not that makes a big difference
in playoff fantasy leagues this weekend depends entirely on how
often Green Bay’s “bone” formation can provide
Starks a hole to run through. HC Mike McCarthy has done a great
job of sticking with the run during the postseason. Green Bay
would be wise to give Starks at least 15 more carries –
and call approximately 22-25 run plays – against Pittsburgh
in an effort to take just a bit of the onus for winning the game
off Rodgers and his receivers.
WR: Jennings (4x) and Wallace (2x).
Given the WR depth both teams possess, there is a very high probability
that neither Jennings nor Wallace will be the star at their position,
especially when you factor in the cornerback that will likely
be defending them for the majority of the contest. Pittsburgh
CB Ike Taylor has been used in a “shadow” role of
late and will likely be tasked with keeping Jennings in check.
On the other side, Wallace will probably see equal time with CBs
Tramon Williams (the defensive star from the secondary in the
first two playoff games) and Sam Shields (the standout from the
NFC Championship). Wallace has the speed and ability to defeat
either defensive back, but it’s getting harder to back him
when he is seeing a safety over the top regularly plus Ward isn’t
making the opponent pay over on the other side. Nevertheless,
for the purposes of this competition, I need to stick with the
two players that have the bonus point modifiers going for them.
As for the likely standouts at the WR position in this game,
I’m tempted to say Antonio Brown could emerge as the Steelers’
best fantasy receiver in this game because the Packers’
CB depth (Williams, Shields and Charles Woodson) should neutralize
Pittsburgh’s trio of Ward, Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders
on a fairly regular basis. Green Bay has a much better chance
to give fantasy owners a wild-card option at WR, as the Packers
can create advantageous matchups behind Jennings (Driver, Jones
and Nelson) against the likes of Steelers’ CBs Bryant McFadden,
Keenan Lewis and William Gay. Recent history suggests the receivers
that tend to work out of the slot (such as Jerricho Cotchery did
in the AFC Championship) can enjoy more success than the outside
receivers, which means Driver and Nelson have a slightly better
chance at fantasy success this weekend than Jennings or Jones.
Once again, though, I am not so convinced by this research that
I am going to move away from Jennings and Wallace and their potential
for providing me with huge point totals.
TE: Miller (2x). As much as I would
like to make this choice sound interesting, the most noise we
should expect from this position is the tweet that Jermichael
Finley (along with Packers’ fellow IR occupant Nick Barnett)
placed on Twitter last week when they expressed their desire to
be included in the team’s Super Bowl photo. Three Green
Bay TEs have combined to catch five passes for 48 yards and a
TD in three playoff games. Miller, on the other hand, hasn’t
set the world on fire with seven catches for 77 yards and a score
in two postseason games, but at least he is a trusted and somewhat
reliable source of fantasy points when compared to the Packers’
trio of TEs. Because Green Bay should be able to limit the damage
of Pittsburgh’s top three WRs on a regular basis, Miller
might end up becoming a featured receiver in the game against
Green a Packers defense that struggled against the position in
the regular season.
K: Suisham (2x). This is one is
easy for me, if only because I predicted Green Bay-Pittsburgh
last week and decided Suisham was the better choice at that time.
Nevertheless, the reason I feel this is an easy pick is because
the Steelers will be more content in settling for field goals
than the Packers will. What do I mean by that? Despite Green Bay’s
second-place finish (behind Pittsburgh) in scoring defense this
season, the Packers’ identity is more offensive. On the
other side, the Steelers have always maintained a defense-first
mentality and trust that unit will always get the stop when the
team needs it the most. The injury to Pouncey also increases the
likelihood that Pittsburgh will use a slightly more conservative
gameplan and decreases the likelihood it will find the end zone
all that often. In short, I expect a lot of field goal attempts
from Suisham.
D/ST: Packers (2x). Much my kicker
dilemma, my decision was made last week when I forecasted a Packers-Steelers
game in Super Bowl XLV. While both offenses could turn this into
a shootout like the last time these teams met (last season, Week
15), the Green Bay offense scares me just a bit more than Pittsburgh’s.
And while it has been proven time and again that no offense thrives
consistently against the Steelers’ defense, the Packers’
ability to spread the field and Rodgers’ ability to buy
time in the pocket make them one of the toughest matchups Pittsburgh
could face.
Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Rodgers: 310 pass yards, two pass TDs, one INT, 15 yards rushing
(19 fantasy points x 4)
Mendenhall: 75 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 20 receiving yards
(15 points x 2)
Starks: 40 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards (5 points)
Jennings: 60 receiving yards (5 points x 4)
Wallace: 45 receiving yards (4 points x 2)
Miller: 60 receiving yards, one receiving TD (12 points x 2)
Suisham: two extra points, three field goals (11 points x 2)
Packers DST: 23 PA, four sacks, one INT, one fumble recovery and
a team win (12 points x 2)
Projected Total: 209 fantasy points (includes points via
bonus point modifiers)
Fuzzy’s
Most of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well.
The key differences are as follows: no bonus point modifiers (including
team win points although more fantasy points are awarded to kickers
who kick long field goals) and PPR scoring where all TDs are worth
six points. In short, your goal is to pick the highest-scoring
lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each
owner is asked to select a tiebreaker each week which will be
used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues
contain no more than 50 teams whereas most other major sites employ
a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the
entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least
- recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving
a nice return on investment for their troubles. Follow
this link for a complete list of the rules.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2
RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense/Special Teams
Since I will be running several teams with Fuzzy’s this
season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present a brief
overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how strongly
I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the same lineup
in more than one league, but in general, I believe in “diversifying
my portfolio” in the postseason as well.
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Conference Championships |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
Team 5 |
QB |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
RB |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
RB |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
WR |
Edwards |
Edwards |
Driver |
Edwards |
Edwards |
WR |
Holmes |
Holmes |
Holmes |
Holmes |
Holmes |
WR |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Wallace |
Wallace |
TE |
Olsen |
Miller |
Miller |
Miller |
Olsen |
K |
Crosby |
Suisham |
Suisham |
Suisham |
Crosby |
DST |
Packers |
Packers |
Steelers |
Packers |
Steelers |
Tie |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
WC Pt Tot |
85.2 |
135.8 |
102.3 |
80.4 |
94.0 |
DR Pt Tot |
102.3 |
116.4 |
91.5 |
116.8 |
89.8 |
CC Pt Tot |
133.1 |
135.9 |
124.8 |
116.5 |
128.1 |
|
It was a banner week across the board, if I may so myself. For
four of my five teams, it may have come one week too late. Team
1 (30th place) and Team 3 (31st) face long odds of finishing in
the money in my most expensive league, each of which are more
than 30 fantasy points behind the 10th place entrant. In another
cheaper league, Team 4 (27th) is also roughly 30 points behind
the 10th place entrant. And finally, in the cheapest league, Team
5 (30th) is 35 points off the money.
However, for one team, last week was just what the doctor ordered.
In addition to Team 2 scoring the second-most points in the league
in the Conference Championship round, this team caught a few breaks
as each of the three teams in front of it scored at least 10 points
less than my team did. In fact, the two leaders struggled to reach
100 points for the week, leaving my team with a nice 10+ point
working margin over the second-place team heading into the Super
Bowl. While I realize that lead could fade quickly, I also recognize
the fact that just about every lineup this week will feature Rodgers
as the QB, Starks and Mendenhall at RB, Jennings and Wallace at
WR and Miller at TE. Therefore, to win this league, I feel as
if I must win the battle at three positions: WR3, K and DST. As
a result, those positions will be the ones I discuss below.
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Super Bowl |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
Team 5 |
QB |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
RB |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
RB |
Starks |
Starks |
Starks |
Starks |
Starks |
WR |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Driver |
Jennings |
Jennings |
WR |
Wallace |
Nelson |
Jennings |
Nelson |
Wallace |
WR |
Ward |
Wallace |
Wallace |
Wallace |
Ward |
TE |
Miller |
Miller |
Miller |
Miller |
Miller |
K |
Crosby |
Suisham |
Suisham |
Suisham |
Crosby |
DST |
Packers |
Packers |
Steelers |
Steelers |
Packers |
Tie |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
|
At receiver, I’m a bit torn about choosing between an old
favorite (Ward) and perhaps the most talented WR4 in the league
(Nelson). Why? Because although Ward has seen his targets drop
this season – especially in recent weeks – he is still
a crafty veteran that Roethlisberger leans on at critical times
throughout a game. Conversely, Nelson has seen his targets rise
recently, seeing his overall numbers spike in the playoffs - particularly
in the last two games against the Falcons and Bears did a fair
job in stopping the run. There’s little reason to suspect
Starks is going to do much on the ground this weekend, thus I
expect a Wes Welker-like line from the Kansas State product.
Driver makes some sense as he will be working the slot, but he’s
the least explosive of the Packers’ wideouts in a game where
manufacturing big plays will be critical. Jones probably offers
the most upside of any WR in this game not named Jennings or Wallace,
but he is a definite boom-or-bust option. Because Pittsburgh is
a defense that just doesn’t give up big plays on a regular
basis, I’m leaning more toward bust. As for the Steelers,
Sanders has the talent to step up in this game, but Green Bay’s
depth at CB suggests he isn’t going to break free for the
big play he will need to make a difference for fantasy owners.
Brown has the best shot of the Steelers’ receivers to be
a nice fantasy option, in my opinion, but I just can’t see
him playing enough snaps for me to risk my first-place team’s
standing on it.
We know the deal with fantasy kickers by now. I’d be foolish
to suggest that either kicker is a “lock” to outscore
the other – especially when you consider the big leg of
Crosby – but my preferred option will likely be Suisham.
To make a long story short, I expect the Steelers will do whatever
it can to limit the possessions in this game. I expect nothing
resembling the 37-36 shootout from last season and believe that
Pouncey’s injury will play a pivotal role in Pittsburgh
settling for field goals. It’s also notable that just one
kicker has attempted as many as two field goals in a game against
the Steelers since Week 12. On the other hand, the Packers haven’t
even allowed a field goal attempt in the past two games. Still,
if I am pressed to make a decision on this position, I feel there
is a greater chance Pittsburgh will set Suisham up for multiple
field goal attempts.
Much like the kicker position, game flow will almost always determine
which defense is the better play. While both defenses have big-play
capability, it’s rarely ever a good idea to count on a return
score from a defense/special teams unit in any given game. As
a result, an owner is usually best served by projecting which
defense/special teams unit is the better bet for sacks and/or
turnovers. While I acknowledge the many similarities between Green
Bay and Pittsburgh, the most lopsided matchup – if there
is such a thing in this game – is the Packers’ receivers
vs. the Steelers’ secondary. Also remember that minus Pouncey,
Green Bay should have at least 8-10 opportunities to pressure
Roethlisberger, some of which could come right up the middle from
NT B.J. Raji. Interior pressure is generally the kind that tends
to force turnovers, which makes me believe the Packers’
DST is the way to go this week.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Just like I did for last season’s Super Bowl, I’ll
put my forecasting skills to the ultimate test by predicting the
final score. It’s hard to overlook the Steelers’ edge
in overall Super Bowl experience, which means they could easily
take advantage of the Packers early on as Green Bay gets settled
in. With that said, the Packers’ offensive gameplan from
the start will almost certainly be to spread the field with four-WR
sets and force S Troy Polamalu into coverage all game long. And
much like three of the four teams that defeated the Steelers this
year (Ravens, Saints and Patriots), Green Bay has the receiver
corps to do it. As I stated earlier, I don’t expect a repeat
of last year’s shootout between these two teams and given
the fact the Packers haven’t trailed in a game by more than
a touchdown at any point all season long, this contest figures
to be close throughout. In the end, I tend to believe that Pouncey’s
injury along with Pittsburgh’s lack of quality depth at
defensive back will be its undoing.
GREEN BAY 24, PITTSBURGH 23
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football
in general? e-mail me.
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