In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

The first week of the NFL season is undoubtedly one of the most anticipated unofficial holiday weekends for all kinds of sports fans. In just about every competitive fantasy league, hope abounds for owners who believe they have learned from last year’s mistakes and are now ready to make this “the year” when they collect multiple league titles and prizes. The same phenomenon occurs in the real game as virtually every NFL team enters the season with dreams of capturing a division title at the very least, assuring its fan base that anything can happen in the playoffs once a team gets there.

Then reality hits. (And for the fantasy owners who don’t fare well in Week 1, panic tends to ensue.)

While Week 1 often doesn’t provide the most accurate barometer as to what a NFL team will be at the end of the season, it does shed some light on what the team would like to be. In most situations, the first game of the season is the healthiest a team will be all season – real or fantasy – and is the first major foray into establishing the identity of the team.

This process of using Week 1 as a barometer and establishing an identity serves as a smooth transition to the analysis I plan on discussing this week. In recent years, players such as Arian Foster, Michael Turner and Matt Forte have used the first week of the season to announce their arrival as season-long fantasy studs while other players like Derrick Ward and Mike Bell set their owners up for disappointing encores. Specifically, I want to take a position-by-position look at recent seasons – using respectable benchmarks – and identify how often a successful Week 1 leads to a breakout campaign for a player. In the event the player was already a fairly known quantity, did his Week 1 lead to a career season?

After much consideration, here are the benchmarks I have chosen for each position:

QB – 300 yards passing and/or three touchdowns
RB – 120 total yards and/or one touchdown
WR – seven catches and/or 100 receiving yards and/or one touchdown
TE – five catches and/or 70 receiving yards and/or one touchdown

My goal this week is simple: to find out how much weight we can legitimately put on a player’s Week 1 performance. All the fantasy point totals below are based on traditional PPR scoring.

Abbreviations:
W1 – Fantasy point total for Week 1 of the given year
FPts – Player’s final fantasy point total in PPR
Rank– Player’s final ranking in the given year

Any veteran fantasy owner knows how fluky scoring touchdowns can be. And if the past three seasons are any indication, it actually may not be a great sign. Fifteen RBs who only scored a TD actually ended up outside the top 40 (32.6%), although many of those can thankfully be attributed to the work of goal-line backs or short-yardage plunges by a fullback that are impossible to predict. Of the 46 players who didn’t meet the yardage benchmark but scored at least one time, only nine RBs finished that season as a top 10 RB (19.6%). Even if you extend the analysis out to include top 20 RBs, only 18 accomplished that feat over the past three seasons (39.1%).

Amazingly, only six RBs over the past three seasons have hit the yardage benchmark in Week 1 but failed to score at least one time. Of the six, four of the finishes were by RBs who finished inside the top 20 that season (Mendenhall, Tim Hightower, Ray Rice, Brandon Jacobs) and two of the Week 1 standout performances were achieved by players (Mike Bell, Julius Jones) that didn’t seem to match the profile of a fantasy stud.

Moving on to the receivers who surpassed seven catches and 100 yards (but did not score), it comes as a small surprise that subset – which features 11 players over the last three seasons – has unearthed the No. 1 overall receiver in two of the past three years. In the one year it didn’t give us the top WR, it provided us with a second and a two-way tie for third. Looking over each specific situation, this subset has been a pretty good indicator for future success when you consider that three of the four didn’t finish in the top 15 that season could directly blame injuries or self-inflicted gunshot wounds (sorry, Plax) for their drop-off. Only Anquan Boldin’s second-half disappearing act last season – which likely came as a result of defenses choosing to allow Derrick Mason and Todd Heap to beat them instead – stands out as the lone occurrence in which a receiver fell short of the top 15 over the past three seasons.

The news for the TD and yard qualifiers is not nearly as good, although five instances makes for about as small of a sample size as one can get in this kind of analysis, so keep that in mind at the very least. Legedu Naanee was the only one to hit both marks last year, Patrick Crayton and Greg Jennings in 2009 and Randy Moss and Hank Baskett in 2008. The highest finish of the five was Moss at 14 and Jennings at 21. The other receivers finished no better than the 50th best WR that season. The four receivers who hit the catch and TD thresholds fared about the same. Reggie Wayne finished 12th in 2008 and Wes Welker came in at 16th in 2010 while Nate Burleson and Justin Gage finished 34th and 79th, respectively, in 2009.

Remember how we talked about fluky scoring touchdowns can be a few minutes ago? Three receivers who scored at least one TD in Week 1 last season finished in the top 10 at the position and only six of the top 20. In fact, if you go 36 deep (three starting receivers in a 12-team league), just seven of the 19 receivers who scored a Week 1 TD ended up as a starter-worthy player in 2010. And those numbers don’t appear to be a one-time occurrence: in 2009, just two receivers who only met the TD criteria finished in the top 10 and four in the top 20. However, seven of 14 players who only met the TD criteria did finish in the top 36. In 2008, only Larry Fitzgerald was a top-ten WR while just six receivers ended up in the top 20. Just seven of the 20 scorers managed to wind up in the top 36.

Players who hit the catch benchmarks seemed to fare much better. Of the 12 who met this criteria (eight in 2009 and four in 2008), three finished as top-ten receivers that year while two more made the top 20. Half of the 12 players ended up outside the top 36, although only Antwaan Randle El (2009) found himself outside the top 50. Last but not least, the yardage threshold actually looked to be a curse until Brandon Lloyd broke through with a second-place finish in 2010. Of the five other receivers to hit that mark since 2008 in Week 1, not one finished any higher than 30th.

Observations: Tight ends have turned the catch-score-yardage hat trick in Week 1 nine times since 2008. Remarkably, that has led to only two top-ten and six top-20 finishes. Once again, however, we can explain some of those occurrences, such as Dallas Clark’s thumb injury sidelining him for over half of the season in 2010 and the fact that Dante Rosario had Jake Delhomme throwing him the ball in 2008.

The catch and yardage qualifiers at TE have been a veritable goldmine when compared to all the other positions and possible combinations to this point. Of the eight TEs who qualified, all but Randy McMichael in 2008 finished as a top 15 player at his position, mostly because he was limited to four games that season. Not a single TE on this list met the yardage and TD benchmarks without also exceeding the catch benchmarks, so we’ll move on from that subset. The catch-TD qualifiers experienced similar success to the catch-yardage qualifiers in that four of the five finished in the top 20. Only Chris Cooley’s injury-shortened 2009 season kept him from doing so, although he still finished 27th despite playing less than half the season.

As one might imagine, only three TEs managed to hit the yardage threshold without surpassing the catch benchmark, so it’s hard to read too much into Dustin Keller being the 19th-best TE in 2009 or seeing Visanthe Shiancoe (21st) and Evan Moore (41st) end their seasons where they did in 2010. Eleven TEs only hit the TD benchmark over the last three seasons, with five of them landing in the top 17 by season’s end. Last but not least, only seven TEs just hit the catch threshold with their Week 1 performances over the past three seasons. Of that group, only Tony Scheffler (2010) and Bo Scaife (2009) should not have been considered a starter in 12-team leagues that year.

Since I only attempt to project the season before Week 1 and the NFL schedule has yet to be played out, I can only surmise what the Week 1 results from this past weekend will mean in the greater scheme of things. But that won’t stop me from trying, so let’s take a look:

All this is to say that we are either on the brink of Arena Football-like offense or the lockout had a much more dramatic effect on the defensive side of the ball than it did on the offensive side. While that may run counterintuitive since offense is generally reliant on timing to be productive whereas the defense is generally more focused on hustle and reaction, it is possible that the lack of padded practices and two-a-days (as set forth by the new CBA) in addition to the lockout has handcuffed defenses and their ability to be in the proper condition to keep up with all the up-tempo offensive attacks in the NFL nowadays. Again, I will withhold final judgment until we have more than one week of action from which to draw conclusions.

By my count, 21 RBs scored over the weekend, which is down from 23 in 2008 but up from 19 in 2009 and 17 in 2010. Because we’ve already discussed the fluky nature of scoring TDs – at least from the players that aren’t considered the centerpieces of their offense or designated goal-line backs – there really isn’t enough here to break down nor do the numbers look out of place.

I went back and quickly reviewed the multi-TD scorers at RB, WR and TE just to see if there was some advantage gained in the final rankings by a fast start. Of the 20 such players that scored multiple times in Week 1 from 2008-2010, only half of them even finished in the top 10 of their position that season! The good news is at WR and TE, all seven players landed in the top 20. At RB, 10 of the 13 finished inside the top 20, although there were three players who ended up 30th or lower. Based on a quick analysis, it looks as though those outliers can be attributed to two goal-line backs and one performance by Willie Parker in 2009 that was very auspicious as one-week performances get for an aging RB.

If there is one bit nugget that owners can take away from this study, it is that Week 1 performance is not a great indicator of year-end performance. Defenses have virtually no film to go on since many offensive coordinators do not gameplan their opponent in the preseason, outside of the third exhibition game. Add in the fact that the lockout probably did not help matters and this weekend’s results were probably more skewed than the average Week 1 typically would be. A good fantasy owner not only recognizes the role sample size plays in projecting player performance, but also understands the difference between one-week disappointment and long-term ineffectiveness.

In closing, nothing in this business is 100%, so everyone will miss from time to time because football is a game played by imperfect people and doesn’t always rely on logic to accomplish a desired result. With that said, the rush to drop “dead weight” off your team after one week runs either suggests that one positive/negative result is enough evidence to change your mind after an offseason of draft preparation or that you have legitimately discovered a player that is being used in a much more fantasy-friendly way than anyone could have imagined. With that in mind, let’s end this Blitz by reviewing some of the players that are sure to be creating buzz on the waiver wire this week and determining whether or not they have a chance at prolonged success.

Devery Henderson – We’ve seen this movie before. In fact, Henderson is one of the few players to qualify all four seasons as a Week 1 standout. He warrants consideration based on the offense he plays in and the injury to Marques Colston, but let’s just say I don’t see a Brandon Lloyd-kind of late-career breakout coming here. I think he’s fourth in the passing game pecking order at best behind Robert Meachem, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles while Colston is out.

Early Doucet – The player Arizona felt could somewhat adequately replace Anquan Boldin prior to last season makes for an intriguing option going forward. If you can put up with his durability issues (he hasn’t played more than 10 games in his first three seasons), he is now in a position to succeed with a capable QB under center in Arizona. Still, I believe he will ultimately end up in the same time-share role he currently has with Andre Roberts. And while his 70-yard TD catch showed off his ability in the open field, it came as a result of Carolina lining up four defensive backs against five receivers in press coverage and leaving a safety at least 15 yards away as the player responsible for Doucet.

Cam Newton – There’s little doubt the rookie is worth an add in every league, but it comes with the caveat that he does not belong in starting lineups outside of two-QB leagues anytime soon (nor he should warrant that label at all this season). The most impressive quality I took from the rookie’s debut was his poise, since his offensive line did not give him a great deal of time in the pocket. For each short pass he overthrew, he was deadly accurate on his deep throws. Somewhere around half of Newton’s 422 yards passing came as a result of severely blown coverage, which is more of an indication of Arizona playing with its projected #2 and #4 CBs (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was traded, Greg Toler was lost for the year due to injury) and adjusting to a new defensive scheme than it is a reflection of Newton’s passing prowess. Until further notice, the piece of information I took away from the Cardinals-Panthers game is that Arizona represents a plus-plus matchup for opposing passing games.

Chad Henne: Week 1... a sign of things to come?

Chad Henne – Of all the unexpected performances from players likely on the waiver wire, I was the most impressed with Henne. The new aggressive offensive implemented by OC Brian Daboll seems to agree with the Michigan alum. While 400+ yards should not be expected again anytime soon, Henne was poised and confident in his throws, suggesting he felt handcuffed by the ball-control nature of the offense he has played in the majority of his pro career. Unlike Newton, I think Week 1 was a sign of things to come for Henne and it would not surprise me – based on one stellar performance, mind you – if he ended up as a top 15 QB. With the Dolphins featuring Reggie Bush in the backfield, there is little chance Miami will try to promote itself as a power running team anytime soon.

Fred Davis – The question with Davis has never been talent, but opportunity. He may have opportunity now. Although Chris Cooley is lingering around despite a bum knee, Davis played more snaps than Cooley did in Week 1. Perhaps Cooley is just being eased back in, but the fact he is playing against doctor’s orders and that QB Rex Grossman believes the team will use more two-TE sets this season is reason enough to buy and hold Davis. At the very least, he’s the best red-zone receiving option Washington has. At his best, he could be a 60-catch player with 7-10 TD potential if Cooley misses a significant part of the season.

Scott Chandler – Consider me skeptical when a player on his fourth team in four years with one career catch “blows up” for a 5-63-2 line in Week 1 against a Chiefs’ defense that was reeling after it lost S Eric Berry on the third play of the game. Chandler was a fine college player at Iowa and is a huge target, but unless HC Chan Gailey completely changed his stripes as a play-caller during the lockout, the TE just doesn’t get a lot of love in his offense. Chandler is not an elite talent that San Diego, Dallas and the New York Giants just missed on, so as hard as it is to pass on such a big fantasy number from a TE, I don’t believe there is anything to see here.

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.