In about one week’s time, the fantasy landscape has been altered.
Remember that night in late August or early September when you
left the draft room knowing you nailed it? You may have been right,
but there’s a good chance Week 2 left you feeling a little
bit less optimistic about your chances at dominating your league,
at least over the next month or so. And there’s a good chance
that Wednesday’s mind-blowing trade of Trent Richardson
is going to affect more than a few folks as well.
Rarely does one week provide so much change that the vast majority
of owners in just about every league are affected in some way,
shape or form. Thankfully, none of the fantasy elite were lost
for the season, but enough key players were hit with short-term
injuries that owners need to re-evaluate the walking wounded.
All of this and a player like Darren McFadden is coming off one
of his best games in years and is still healthy…need I say
more about the oddities of this hobby?
Just to be clear in the paragraphs that follow, the categories
each player falls under reflects my opinion more than the amount
of time they are expected to miss. Season-ending injuries obviously
will fall under the serious-concern category. As for the other
players, the seriousness of the injury will be factored in with
the player’s track record for staying healthy or playing
through pain. With any luck, we can get back to the business of
breaking down trends and do some number-crunching next week. But
as the sheer number of entries below will attest, injuries defined
the Week 2 landscape.
Richardson will get as much work as he
can handle.
The Trade Fallout
Trent Richardson (traded from the Browns
to the Colts)
Generally speaking, when an important NFL player begins his season
with one team, he ends it with the same team. Kudos to Colts GM
Ryan Grigson for acquiring a player that not only sets his offense
up for success over the next 4-5 years, but also for swinging
a deal that could be the biggest in-season trade we’ve seen
in the NFL since the late 1980s (Eric Dickerson, Herschel Walker)
in terms of the talent that is being acquired and the most noteworthy
trade of such a player so early in his career that I can remember.
In less than two weeks’ time, Indianapolis has turned a
middling running back situation to one of the league’s best.
Reaction: I’m not usually
surprised by much, but I’m pretty certain my jaw dropped
when this news hit the wire. While I’m on board with much
of what new Browns GM Mike Lombardi has done to this point in
Cleveland, trading the No. 3 overall pick from a season ago that
is one of the few blue-chip running backs to come out of the draft
in years for what will likely be a mid-20s selection in the 2014
draft cannot be considered progress. What makes this trade even
more odd from the Browns’ perspective is that Indianapolis
appeared content going through the season with Vick Ballard and
Ahmad Bradshaw before Ballard’s injury, so the talks almost
had to be started by Cleveland even though Colts’ brass
was said to be on the lookout for a power back. Richardson isn’t
going to be able to take the likes of LT Joe Thomas or C Alex
Mack with him to Indianapolis, but the step up in surrounding
talent makes Richardson more of a potential fantasy superstar
than already was and the Colts a team to be reckoned with. It’s
not fair to expect Richardson to put up top-five RB numbers over
the next 2-4 weeks as he learns a new offense, but don’t
forget he played in Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense as
a rookie, so the transition to Pep Hamilton’s WCO could
actually happen quicker than expected. Once he is up to speed,
he could have few rivals at his position. Ballard, who has already
been lost for the season, has virtually no value now in dynasty
leagues. Bradshaw might remain on the redraft radar for a week
or two, but figures to quickly move to mere handcuff status in
a week or two.
Willis McGahee (will reportedly sign
with Browns following Richardson trade)
Bobby Rainey and Chris Ogbonnaya (only healthy running backs remaining
in Cleveland)
If we can give credit to the Browns for one thing on Wednesday,
it would be landing the best free-agent back available. For those
wondering why McGahee, here’s a shot in the dark: new HC
Rob Chudzinski was his play-caller at Miami (FL). Quite often,
even the worst trades in any sport can be defended to some degree
and the Richardson deal is no exception. Chudzinski wants his
backs to be breakaway threats and, to this point of his young
career, Richardson had only two 20-yard and 14 10-yard runs in
298 carries. (Obviously, McGahee, Rainey and Ogbonnaya are not
three-down breakaway threats either, but Cleveland is taking the
long-term approach here.) If a team knows it will not compete
in a given year, doesn’t that team owe it to the player
and to itself to pick up an asset that fits its long-term vision?
In short, the trade can be defended (and even applauded to a degree),
but NFL general managers do not know how their draft board stacks
up now, so can it make the case that a player drafted in the mid-20s
next spring will have the same impact that Richardson could? Moreover,
if the new regime didn’t believe that Richardson is/was
a breakaway threat, that’s fine. However, trading him away
opened up another hole that didn’t exist before. Although
running backs have been easier to find in mid-to-late rounds than
a lot of other positions, front offices cannot automatically assume
they will get their man in the upcoming draft – especially
if a team is looking for a potential gamebreaker at the position.
Reaction: I’m pretty certain
that signing a 31-year-old back (32 in October) coming off a broken
leg is the definition of a stop-gap option since it can’t
be called a youth movement or even addition by subtraction. Given
the early nature of this trade, it probably helps to look at it
as if it happened during the preseason and figure out where to
stack McGahee on the Big Board (shameless plug). Given his age
and the injury he is returning from, I’d venture to put
him in the same area I did Fred Jackson (10th-11th round). With
that said, I’m not entirely certain Ogbonnaya - who has
enjoyed limited success as a running back in the NFL but has since
been turned into a fullback – doesn’t get a shot at
the lead-back role given the fact he is more than serviceable
as a blocker and receiver in the passing game. At the moment,
Rainey – a player I really liked in Baltimore’s camp
during the 2012 preseason – is listed as Cleveland’s
starter on the team’s official website despite the fact
he hasn’t seen any game action. Then again, common sense
dictates that if McGahee is truly as healthy as CBS’ Jason
La Canfora heard he was in August, then he will be the low-upside
RB2/flex option that running back-needy owners will want to pursue.
In 12-team (or bigger) leagues with deep benches, a strong case
can be made that all three backs warrant a roster spot until further
notice.
The Serious-Concern Injuries
Ryan Clady (Lisfranc – left foot, out for
season)
Clady, a three-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro,
surrendered one sack last season in more than 1,100 snaps and
was flagged for holding only four times during the 2012 regular
season. He’ll undergo surgery at some point in the near
future, but the hit will undoubtedly be a large one since Clady
is among the league's best pass protectors. The No. 12 overall
pick of the 2008 draft graded out as Pro Football Focus’
fourth-best tackle in 2012 as well as its fourth-best pass blocker.
Reaction: Four-veteran Chris Clark, a 2010 undrafted free agent
with six career starts, will fill in on Manning's blindside while
newly-signed Winston Justice will be the swing tackle. As can
be the case when key offensive linemen are lost for long stretches,
the running backs and tight ends may be asked to pick up the slack.
Knowshon Moreno, who has clearly established himself as the most
trusted blocker of the three running backs vying for touches in
Denver’s backfield, could actually see a higher percentage
of snaps than he has already (86-of-150; 57.3%) – at least
until Montee Ball gets the Peyton Manning seal of approval. At
tight end, it gets a bit more dicey since Julius Thomas is a receiving
tight end only and has graded out negatively over the 57 times
he has been asked to run block in 2013. Although Manning is noted
for his ability to unload the ball quickly, owners need to be
aware of the possibility that either Thomas or Welker (likely
Thomas) could see their snaps reduced if Clark struggles over
the next few weeks. With that said, it is also noteworthy that
Thomas is the only Broncos’ skill-position player besides
Manning that hasn’t missed a snap.
Dwayne
Allen (hip, out for season)
Allen’s status was quickly downgraded from questionable
to doubtful (and eventually out) despite an MRI that came back
negative in advance of Week 2. Somehow, he was given a day-to-day
tag on Monday and told less than 48 hours later he would need
season-ending hip surgery.
Reaction: Allen’s impact in fantasy this season didn’t
figure to be all that great, at least not for those who owned
him. However, his loss has far-reaching implications for the owners
of his teammates. The Colts wanted to use more two-tight formations
this season, but there’s no way Dominique Jones will see
nearly the snaps Allen did. Coby Fleener – as we witnessed
in Week 2 – has a great shot at becoming much more fantasy-relevant
and is a pretty good bet to match the 61 snaps he saw last week
on a more regular basis (as opposed to the 42 he was credited
with in Week 1). Fewer two-tight formations means more playing
time for either FB Stanley Havili or third receiver T.Y. Hilton
(take your guess on the winner in that battle). Hilton was already
making it difficult for the coaches to keep him on the sideline,
so a base three-wide formation should pretty well lock him into
high-end fantasy WR3 production at the very worst. Trent Richardson
would have also benefited from Allen’s blocking ability,
but the fact that Hilton should be on the field more often should
lead to more space in the box for the newest Colt, making Allen’s
loss more manageable from the running game’s perspective.
Danny
Amendola (groin, 2-6 weeks)
Given his history and the uncertain nature of his injury, I’ll
include Amendola here. We already knew about Amendola was hurt
before Week 1 ended, but we still can’t seem to get an ironclad
answer as to what the injury is. Some reports have suggested he
is dealing with a sports hernia while others have speculated he
has torn adductor muscles. The most recent reports suggest the
former and that he will miss 2-6 weeks (which is a rather broad
estimate and one that should make us somewhat skeptical). Fantasy
owners knew Amendola was a high-risk, high-reward option when
they drafted him, but most were willing to use a third- or fourth-round
choice in order to snag the next Wes Welker and those same owners
certainly didn’t expect to get less than a game out of him
before his injury history caught up to him.
Reaction: As most of us already know, Julian Edelman is the player
that benefits the most from Amendola’s injury. What is less
certain is how long Edelman himself will last since his durability
basically matches that of his predecessor’s. As a result,
Edelman is both a short-term and long-term hold as well as a fairly
valuable trade chip, depending on your perspective. I have little
faith that Amendola will be ready to go in two weeks and if he
elects not to have surgery on a sports hernia, I don’t like
his chances of consistently being effective when he does return.
Edelman figures to be Welker- or Amendola-lite for as long as
he can stay healthy, which means he can buy his owners some time
if they waited on receivers in the draft, serve as a carrot for
the Amendola owner or be used to help another owner with receiver
issues. As much as I am enjoying a lead Patriots receiver in my
offense for the first time in years in both of my experts’
leagues, I’m leaning towards trading him away in the near
future.
Other “serious” injuries of note:
Tyvon Branch (fractured fibula, out indefinitely) – NFL
Network analyst Mike Mayock believed a season ago that Branch
could be the best tackling safety in the league. He has graded
out well against the run and pass in each of the past two seasons,
so a Raiders’ defense that didn’t need to take a personnel
hit lost perhaps its best all-around player. Ex-Saint Usama Young
will get the call to replace him, but it is a fairly severe downgrade
at strong safety.
Sean Weatherspoon (Lisfranc, IR – designated to return)
and Kroy Biermann (Achilles, out for season) – Weatherspoon
didn’t grade out nearly as well in 2012 or the first two
games of 2013 as he did in 2011, but he was the Falcons’
best coverage linebacker. As a result, opposing tight ends need
to be upgraded over the next two months or so. As big as Weatherspoon’s
loss is to the Falcons’ defense, Biermann’s loss is
potentially devastating. Biermann has amazing versatility for
a 6-3, 255-pound defensive end and was one of most important pieces
of DC Mike Nolan’s multiple defense. Although he has yet
to produce eye-popping numbers, Biermann’s absence figures
to give opposing quarterbacks more time in the pocket than they
already had against a defense with average talent.
Josh
Thomas (concussion, return unknown), Josh
Norman (sprained MCL, multiple weeks), D.J.
Moore (sprained knee, multiple weeks), Quintin
Mikell (ankle, return unknown), Charles
Godfrey (Achilles, out for season) – Amazingly, some members
of the Panthers’ secondary managed to walk off the field without
assistance from a trainer. That’s right, five teammates from one
positional group missed significant time because of injuries sustained
in Week 2, which probably goes a long way in explaining the busted
coverage that led to the Bills’ game-winning score. Owners shouldn’t
need me to tell them that if a team with a questionable secondary
entering the season loses five players, it should be a plus matchup
for opposing quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends.
The Moderate-Concern Injuries
Steven
Jackson (thigh, 2-3 weeks)
As strongly as I felt about Jackson this summer, he serves as
a reminder why owners that play in multiple leagues are wise to
“diversify their portfolio” if at all possible at
draft time. Jackson appeared to suffer his injury while stretching
to score on his only reception of Week 2 and has already been
ruled out for Week 3, although Falcons HC Mike Smith called the
injury “short-term”. Some may remember the 30-year-old
ex-Ram also injured his quad in the 2011 opener, only to miss
one week and struggle in the next game before finishing the season
strong. While there is no word as to how similar the 2011 injury
is to his current one, Jackson is no stranger to playing through
pain and a good bet to return before the Falcons’ Week 6
bye.
Reaction: Jackson's ailments have tended to be of the soft-tissue
variety – quadriceps, groin, hip flexor – but nothing
has been severe enough to sideline him for long. He has played
in at least 15 games in each of his previous four seasons and
has plenty to play for in 2013, so the odds are strong he’ll
return sooner than later – unless Atlanta chooses to rest
him as long as it wins. In other words, a loss at Miami this week
could push his (as well the team’s) timetable up whereas
a win against the Dolphins and at home in Week 4 against New England
could embolden the Falcons to let him rest through the bye. It
is interesting to note that Jacquizz Rodgers only saw 10 more
offensive snaps than Jason Snelling in Week 2 (40-30) and the
latter was significantly more productive despite receiving most
of his touches over the final 5:37 of the game. A similar workload
split should be expected for as long as Jackson is sidelined,
although neither replacement figures to be all that productive
against the Dolphins, Patriots or Jets (if he is still out in
Week 5) anyway.
Eddie
Lacy (concussion, probable Week 5 return)
The rookie that ran away with the Packers’ feature-back
job in the preseason entered the league with plenty of injury
concerns, but there wasn’t much he could have done to avoid
a helmet-to-helmet collision with Redskins SS Brandon Meriweather.
It was a shame for Packers fans and Lacy’s owners alike
as NFL Network’s Albert Breer had reported earlier Sunday
that HC Mike McCarthy wanted to get him 20-22 carries in Week
2. Instead, he managed just one rushing attempt before leaving
the game for good.
Reaction: Forgetting for now about the senseless hit by Meriweather,
it seems a bit appropriate that an oft-injured running back like
James Starks would replace the player chosen to replace him and
end the Packers’ 44-game streak (regular season) of failing
to put a rusher over 100 yards. It also established that Starks
would likely be featured in the event of another injury, although
I have my doubts how long such an arrangement would last. There
are a number of evaluators – myself included – who
were fairly high on Johnathan Franklin during the draft process
and it seems a bit odd he has done nothing to distinguish himself.
(Usually in these cases, there is more to the story than we are
being told.) Either way, any owner investing in Starks is likely
doing so for one week only – this week in a difficult matchup
against the Bengals’ stout defense. Perhaps owners of Steven
Jackson can buy themselves a bit of time by picking Starks up
off waivers, although the upside is not very high.
Reggie
Bush (left knee, questionable for Week 3)
PPR owners who took the plunge with Bush in the second round
of their drafts had to be feeling pretty good following his explosive
Detroit debut. Even though he came out of Week 1 awfully beat
up (dislocated thumb, tweaked groin and hyperextended knee), HC
Jim Schwartz said he had no plans to limit his touches. One week
later, Bush took a helmet to the knee in the first half of the
Lions’ loss to Arizona. Although he did return to the game,
he re-tweaked the knee and fumbled in the second half during a
stretch where he admitted, “I probably shouldn’t have
been in there.”
Reaction: Unlike some of the situations that have already been
discussed, this one will probably need to be monitored throughout
the rest of the season. That is not to say that his knee injury
is that serious, but rather that Bush’s track record says
we should. Then again, Schwartz did nothing to ease the fears
of Bush owners by saying, “I guess (the injury) could be
medium-term,” when asked if was going to be a long-term
concern. As tempting as it was to call him a potential fantasy
RB1 entering the season, any owner that has followed Bush throughout
his career knew it could be a less-than-smooth ride given his
knee issues from his days in New Orleans. However, Bush’s
presence/absence has far-reaching consequences for fantasy owners.
Calvin Johnson was on his way to a huge day before Bush’s
injury, but was kept in check thereafter. Joique Bell would likely
absorb the majority of Bush’s workload and be a fine RB2
option in his absence, but isn’t the electric playmaker
Bush is. Mikel Leshoure would likely see some touches while a
player like Brandon Pettigrew could see more opportunities with
Bush not around to steal all the work in the short-passing game.
The Mild- Concern Injuries
Ray
Rice (left hip flexor, day-to-day)
A curious case in redraft leagues due to the presence of an emerging
Bernard Pierce, Rice was already a bit more risky entering this
season than he had been since his rookie season. However, RB1
value was a virtual lock because Rice has been one of the league’s
most durable backs…until Week 2. For those that didn’t
see Ravens-Browns, Rice went down without contact on an outside
run in the fourth quarter and appeared to be in considerable pain
although he walked off under his own power. HC Jim Harbaugh stated
Rice is unlikely to practice this week, but that his top back
could play against the Texans without practice. With a number
of injuries to key personnel already, however, the Ravens would
be foolish to play Rice this week if he is anything less than
100%.
Reaction: Pierce isn’t going to be available in any leagues
with 10 or more teams, which makes this something of an either-you-have-him-or-you-don’t
situation. In other words, a Rice owner that has Pierce can plug
him in without hesitation if Rice is forced to miss Week 3 and
has no reason to trade his handcuff in the first place. Non-Rice
owners that own Pierce can’t even bank on Rice missing the
game and this week’s matchup isn’t all that good anyway
(Houston). Finally, owners that don’t have either player
aren’t going to deal for Pierce now when his value is probably
as high as it will be all season while Rice’s value isn’t
likely to drop all that much. As a result, this injury may be
one of those cases where the Rice owner may want to start thinking
about backing up his/her first-round investment a week or two
after this threat passes.
Maurice
Jones-Drew (left ankle tendon sprain, may play Week 3)
Suffice it to say the last 12 months have not been good to MJD.
After becoming the latest high-profile running back to fall victim
to the dreaded Lisfranc injury and missing 10 games last season,
he played only 46 of 74 snaps in the opening-week blowout loss
to the Chiefs. Not surprisingly, Jones-Drew made it 20 plays into
Week 2 before Raiders S Charles Woodson flew through the air with
the greatest of ease near the goal line to tackle him by the side
of his neck, forcing him down awkwardly out-of-bounds. The injury
came at a bad time as Jacksonville had just begun to establish
some semblance of an offensive attack against a Raiders’
defense that had controlled the game over the first 1 ½
quarters.
Reaction: The Jags provided owners some hope in the preseason
by resting MJD and giving some of their dynamic rookie playmakers
a chance to impress, which they did for the most part. Unfortunately,
they have lacked creativity throughout their first two games and
failed to use “offensive weapon” Denard Robinson (nine
total snaps) in order to make defenses respect somebody else besides
Jones-Drew. There’s no guarantee MJD will even miss Week
3, but a Jacksonville offense that posted 248 yards against a
weaker Oakland defense and has scored one touchdown (in garbage-time)
through two games will probably struggle to score anything more
than a field goal against the Seahawks in Seattle. HC Gus Bradley
has stated that Justin Forsett and Jordan Todman would share time
if Jones-Drew is forced to sit out, but neither back is worth
a start this week anyway.
Larry
Fitzgerald (hamstring, day-to-day)
Fresh off an eight-catch, 80-yard, two-touchdown performance
in the season opener, it appeared Fitzgerald was ready to re-emerge
as a top fantasy option once again with the arrival of Carson
Palmer and HC Bruce Arians. That still might be the case, but
sometime between Week 1 and his first practice of Week 2, Fitzgerald
quickly went from having what seemed like a minor hamstring pull
to an injury the seven-time Pro Bowler said, “I wish it
was at 80 percent.”
Reaction: Fitzgerald has already stated he doesn’t plan
on missing any games because of the hamstring, but owners need
to be a bit concerned because he “wore down” (according
to a team spokesman) during Week 2’s loss against Detroit.
Michael Floyd (71 snaps) and even Andre Roberts (57) saw more
snaps than Fitzgerald, who isn’t expected to practice again
until at least Friday. Owners also should be concerned about his
injury since hamstring pulls can be nagging when they are not
allowed to heal properly and rest is not an option. Whether or
not this is a Roddy White-like situation is debatable, but as
we sit here in during the middle of the week, it is hard to like
Fitzgerald nearly as much as we’d like to against the Saints
in Week 3. Unless we receive much different news about his availability
or practice participation between now and Sunday, owners would
be wise to bump up Floyd and Roberts and treat Fitzgerald as a
WR3 at best.
Vernon
Davis (hamstring, day-to-day)
On the same play that summed up how far the NFL has come in recent
years, Davis got hurt and Seahawks CB Richard Sherman highlighted
why he is an elite NFL defensive back. With 13:15 left in the
game, Davis began to slow down as the camera followed the ball.
Sherman, who did a brilliant job at shutting down Anquan Boldin,
was playing trail-technique on Davis’ go route and plucked
Colin Kaepernick’s deep throw out of the air. Although Davis
appeared to suffer the injury right before the interception, it
became apparent as he made little attempt to track down Sherman
before grabbing the back of his left leg. He was quickly ruled
out for the remainder of the game and ceded most of his remaining
snaps to rookie backup Vance McDonald.
Reaction: Davis tweeted earlier in the week, "No need to
worry y'all…My leg is feeling great just need a little rest
til kickoff according to the docs." From someone who experienced
a hamstring pull for the first time in his life this summer, I’m
going to go on a limb and say Davis’ leg probably isn’t
“feeling great” 2-3 days after the injury, although
he is right in that rest will do it well. The bigger issue –
as is the case with Fitzgerald above – is how quickly his
hamstring can actually heal to the point where it will not be
an ongoing issue. Perhaps the world-class therapy Davis will receive
on his hamstring this week will enable him to play Sunday without
incident, but hamstring injuries for a speed merchant like Davis
should not be discounted either. Obviously, McDonald isn’t
the nearly the player Davis is at this point of his career, but
he is not short on athleticism either. As a result, he could fill
in nicely for the Niners in a pinch if Davis has to sit. The fact
that Davis’ injury is not a long-term one makes McDonald
something of a fringe waiver-wire addition, however.
Other “mild” injuries of note:
Andre Johnson (concussion) – Had AJ not been cleared for
physical activity on Monday, there may be more reason for concern.
As it is, it appears he avoided a potential multi-week layoff.
If he doesn’t practice much (or at all) this week and plays
Sunday, I would go with another receiver this week. However, he
should be fine beyond this week.
Shonn Greene (knee) – Injured in the season opener, the
new Titans’ pounder underwent a knee scope and is expected
to be back no later than Week 5. His upside isn’t huge,
but the Titans’ backs have averaged 34 carries thus far.
It is unlikely Tennessee wants to keep dialing up Chris Johnson
for 25 carries per game, so there is potential 10-15 upside for
Greene when he returns.
Martellus Bennett (shoulder) – Bennett made one of the
all-time great catches for naught in Week 2, snatching a high
throw out of midair with one hand in the back of the end zone.
Unfortunately, he couldn’t keep his feet inbounds and injured
his shoulder on the landing thanks to a well-placed (or not-so-well-placed)
cameraman. Even though he told reporters he “messed up”
his shoulder, he’s expected to play in Week 3.
Brandon Myers (ribs, day-to-day) – Although the New York
Daily News reported that Myers had his “ribs and abdominals
heavily bandaged”, he is expected to play in Week 3. Considering
the state of the Panthers’ secondary entering this week,
he’s probably a good start if he plays.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011.He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff
fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears
as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |