For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial to place your chips on the event that is most likely to happen while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly do we measure this?

One of the older fantasy football adages is that more opportunities tend to lead to more success. This week, my goal is simply to break down what each of the 32 teams did in the red zone last season – individually as well as a team – in an effort to give you some idea of what happened over the course of 2013 when offenses got down inside the 20. What players were their team’s “bellcow”? Was Joique Bell really that much of a revelation? How many times did Josh Gordon or Jimmy Graham get targeted in scoring territory? Which teams were balanced and which ones were unbalanced with their red-zone play-calling?

Information is typically what you make of it. As I spend the next month-plus hammering out my game-by-game projections, I will refer to this kind of information on a regular basis. While I focus mostly on what players may/should exploit their individual matchups in my projections, there is also something to be said about how stubborn a team is about running the ball in the red zone or fixated on 1-2 primary receivers near the goal line. Sustained success in fantasy football is all in the details and it has been my focus for years that no owner will consider more factors in their analysis than I will.

Obviously, I just touched on a few of the applications for the data I’m about to present as I attempted to give both player and team equal time in my analysis. You will notice below that I have provided all the red-zone information from the team’s last three seasons so that each of you can observe your trends. I believe as the years pass, this information will be useful for the teams that retain their head coaches and/or offensive coordinators season after season. While I left some brief thoughts for each team, don’t hesitate to take a few minutes to review each category I have provided and try to understand why that team opted to do what it did and the possible resulting carryover for 2014.

With that out of the way, allow me to explain what each of the headers mean before we get started with my overview on each team’s red-zone attack philosophy last season:

Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp – Completions
PaTD – Pass TD
PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass
RuAtt – Rush Attempt
RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone carries a player had for his team (For example, Andre Ellington secured 14 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he had 14.3% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)
RuTD – Rush TD
RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run
Tar – Red-zone targets
Tar % - The percentage of red-zone targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald secured 24 of Arizona’s 68 red-zone passing attempts, meaning he had 34.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)
Rec – Red-zone receptions
ReTD – Receiving TD
ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception
RZ Pass % - The percentage that an offense attempted a pass in the red zone
Pass % - The percentage that an offense attempted a pass, regardless of field position
RZ Run % - The percentage that an offense attempted a run in the red zone
Run % - The percentage that an offense attempted a run, regardless of field position

Note: the very detailed-oriented readers will notice that the targets do not always equal the number of pass attempts in the “totals” row. This discrepancy comes as a result of occurrences such as clock-killing “spikes” in the red zone that do not have an intended receiver.

ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEN | WAS

How it affects 2014: Fitzgerald actually received more red-zone targets last year (24) than he did in either of the first two years I have run this analysis (20 in 2012, 17 in 2011). Look for that number to come back down to pre-Arians levels as Floyd continues to work his way into a dual No. 1 role with the eight-time Pro Bowler all over the field. Staying healthy throughout an entire season has become increasingly more difficult for Fitzgerald, who should still remain the favorite target of Palmer since he will spend a lot of time in the slot. Still, Floyd possesses the size and ball skills necessary to double his red-zone scores (two in 2013) and make a run at 8-10 touchdowns overall. Ellington is a near-lock to receive more than 17 touches inside the 20 this season, but it would not come as a shock if Taylor or Jonathan Dwyer assumed the Mendenhall role in this offense.

How it affects 2014: The Falcons hope the addition of players like first-round LT Jake Matthews will boost the ground game and help fill the red-zone void left behind by the retired Gonzalez. Jones is something of a question mark, so Atlanta may have no other choice but to hope than Jackson still has enough left in the tank since White isn’t going to do it by himself and Douglas might as well be allergic to the goal line. A healthy Jones turned 20 red-zone targets into seven scores in 2012, so his health will obviously play a big role as to whether or not Ryan can return to his 2012 numbers inside the 20. Toilolo will see a nice bump in action in the red zone as well, but most of Gonzalez’s other targets figure to go to Jackson, rookie RB Devonta Freeman or maybe Rodgers.

How it affects 2014: It seems unlikely the Ravens have done enough in the offseason to solve the offensive line issues, although the hire of OC Gary Kubiak can’t hurt in terms of getting the running game going. It seems pretty clear that Brown should be expected to be a red-zone force going forward, although it is very likely that Pitta and Owen Daniels will be Flacco’s two favorite targets inside the 20 in Kubiak’s offense. In fact, it would come as a mild shock Pitta and Daniels don’t see about 10 more red-zone targets this year than the 16 the tight end position recorded as a whole in Baltimore last year. The addition of fourth-round rookie RB Lorenzo Taliaferro will probably trim 30-40% of Rice’s 36 red-zone rushes over each of the last two seasons (and that assumes Rice doesn’t serve a suspension, which he almost certainly will).

How it affects 2014: Marrone and Hackett will probably remain a decidedly run-heavy pairing, although they will likely attempt at least 15-20 more passes inside the 20 (if Manuel can stay healthy) since they’ll have Sammy Watkins, Woods and Mike Williams around this year. Look for Watkins in particular to be used all over the field, but especially near the goal line. Williams may end up being little more than a red-zone/jump-ball specialist with the team high on Watkins and Woods, but he could easily steal whatever scoring appeal Chandler has enjoyed in recent years. A healthy Manuel might also help the efficiency of the run game, although much of the success on the ground will be determined by how long Spiller can stay on the field. The Bills wisely traded for Bryce Brown, who is a nice blend of Jackson (size) and Spiller (speed and explosion), and can probably help the ground game move along without much of a hiccup should either one of the top two backs get hurt.

How it affects 2014: It’s hard to blame Williams for his “shortcomings” as a red-zone runner when he is arguably the fourth-best short-yardage runner on his own team. In retrospect, OC Mike Shula probably wishes he would have utilized Tolbert more often, but it will help everyone in the backfield if Stewart is as healthy as has been reported. As for Newton, his 20 red-zone rushes should probably be the expectation going forward; as the years pass, look for the Panthers to continue to limit how much they expose their quarterback to punishment. Although Carolina can’t expect to turn 60.71 percent of its red-zone catches into touchdowns again anytime soon, it seems like a good bet that first-round rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin will absorb Smith’s targets. However, it should be noted that free-agent signee WR Jerricho Cotchery was one of the league’s most efficient red-zone receivers last year.

How it affects 2014: The single-biggest difference for the upcoming season should be the increased playing time of WR Marquess Wilson. Earl Bennett proved to be a reliable No. 3 receiver, but didn’t really possess the athleticism to make many plays anywhere on the field. With Wilson likely assuming his spot, Chicago will now possess three athletic receivers that stand at least 6-3 (not to mention 6-6 TE Martellus Bennett) and force defenses to pick their poison. It is quite possible that Forte won’t lead the NFL in red-zone touches again as a result, but he also isn’t going to get pulled at the goal line on a regular basis again anytime soon. Marshall has accumulated at least 22 red-zone targets in each of his first two years with the Bears, so don’t look for that number to change significantly this year either.

How it affects 2014: New OC Hue Jackson has made it clear that his charges will run the ball early and often this season. Dalton is very unlikely to approach 65 red-zone throws in 2014, while the running game can expect to see in upwards of the 70 rushing attempts (and quite possibly more) inside the 20 it posted in 2011 and 2012. Expect Green Ellis – assuming the team doesn’t release him – to lose most of his 30 carries to rookie RB Jeremy Hill. Bernard could possibly match that workload, although it would seem a better bet that he will receive twice as many red-zone targets as opposed to a huge bump in carries. Green’s status as a 20-plus target receiver in the red zone should not change, but it should come as no surprise if Eifert absorbs most of Jones’ numbers from a season ago. This run-heavy offense figures to only possess enough volume to keep two players fantasy-relevant, so it would figure those players would be the ones most likely to cause mismatches.

How it affects 2014: The Browns are going to run the ball a lot this season for two major reasons: 1) new OC Kyle Shanahan favors it and 2) the personnel that will likely be available to him dictates it. With Gordon likely to be suspended for the season, the natural assumption is that Cameron will become that much more fantasy-friendly. I don’t see it that way (once QB Johnny Manziel takes over for Hoyer) because it isn’t as if the rookie is capable of picking apart a defense right now when the field is condensed. A much better bet is some combination of Ben Tate, rookie Terrance West and Manziel combining for 70-80 rushing attempts inside the 20 while the passing game falls back to its anemic pre-2013 totals (48 in 2012, 47 in 2011). Every Cleveland receiver and tight end is a dicey bet this season, especially once Manziel is named the starter.

How it affects 2014: Dallas has made a lot of strides in its ability to convert inside the 20 in recent years and much of it has to do with the emergence of Bryant as a consistent force. Witten continues to be underutilized in the red zone for reasons I cannot comprehend, but it is unlikely his targets are going to pick up with the increase of playing time the Cowboys expect to get out of Dunbar and Escobar. Given new OC Scott Linehan’s recent willingness to let it fly, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Dallas returned to being as unbalanced in the red zone as it was in 2012 (65.22% pass, 34.78% run), especially if Murray has trouble staying healthy once again.

How it affects 2014: Since the offense was so good, it is probably not wise to expect any Denver player to be nearly as efficient as they were last season, if for no other reason than the Broncos will play four games against the NFC West. That nugget alone suggests the Broncos will probably not be in as many shootouts and will rely on their running game and improved defense to protect one-score leads as opposed to throwing a bone to the reserves in garbage time. Free-agent addition WR Emmanuel Sanders shouldn’t be expected to approach Decker’s 23 targets inside the 20 anytime soon, so it is quite possible that Demaryius and Julius Thomas each push 10 red-zone scores in 2014. Ball should be expected to be the workhorse and at least match Moreno’s 42 touches from last season, but look for C.J. Anderson to grow into the Ball of 2013 role – albeit with far less red-zone work.

How it affects 2014: Stafford’s supporters won’t be able to blame his surrounding talent this season. Johnson won’t draw the same amount of attention as he has in past years simply because WR Golden Tate is a very good run-after-catch player. Rookie TE Eric Ebron may initially have more impact outside the 20, but defenses will be drawn to him in the red zone as well. And let’s not forget Fauria, who was wildly efficient in hauling scoring passes a season ago. The Lions will probably try to maintain run-pass balance as long as possible, but the matchups Stafford now has in his favor will probably force new OC Joe Lombardi to maintain about the same 58:42 ratio (and likely more lopsided than that) they did in 2013.

How it affects 2014: Last year was a bit of an aberration on multiple levels, but it seems pretty clear that Green Bay will be content to give Lacy plenty of red-zone work going forward. With that said, it is highly unlikely the Packers will ask him to log another 49 carries inside the 20 with a healthy Rodgers available. Nelson is a solid bet to remain in the low-20s in terms of red-zone targets while rookie WR Davante Adams could easily absorb many of Jones’ looks near the goal line. Early on, though, expect Cobb to see the biggest boost in red-zone targets and production.

How it affects 2014: There seems to be a bit of mystery about the way the Texans are going about their business in that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed in part due to his experience in former Bills HC Chan Gailey’s spread attack, but most of the offseason moves suggest that Houston will try to win with the run and strong defense. The Texans should be much more effective running the ball at the very least, assuming that Andre Johnson eventually reports to camp and is around to keep the defense honest. Much will depend on the health of Foster, however. If the time Foster had off last season gave him sufficient time to recover from his workload over the previous three seasons, then the running game could reach pre-2013 levels in terms of effectiveness. If not, Houston will probably lose a lot of frustrating 17-14 type of ballgames.

How it affects 2014: The addition of special assistant Rob Chudzinski should help Hamilton, the healthy return of TE Dwayne Allen should boost the rushing attack just like Wayne and free-agent signee WR Hakeem Nicks should be able to give the offense a bit more efficiency in the passing game. Of course, it will help if Hamilton learns from his rookie play-calling mistakes and allows Luck & Co. to start off fast and build a lead as opposed to putting his offense in a hole early by stubbornly sticking with a ground game when it isn’t working. Whether or not this offense is balanced in 2014 will depend almost entirely on Richardson. If he has an opportunity to get going, look for a run-pass ratios similar to the ones the Colts had in Arians’ final season – inside as well as outside the 20.

How it affects 2014: When a team is as offensively-challenged as the Jaguars were last year, wholesale changes are generally made. In just one offseason, Jacksonville has acquired enough new parts that it could field different starters at most of the key skill positions (assuming first-round QB Blake Bortles overtakes Henne at some point), with Shorts and Lewis being the exceptions. The Jaguars should be noticeably better offensively all over the field, especially considering that rookie second-round WRs Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson will absorb most of the work that went to Ace Sanders, Mike Brown and Blackmon last year. It is probably a fair expectation that Shorts and Lewis will remain the two most prominent targets in the red zone in 2014, with Robinson likely finishing a close third.

How it affects 2014: There is plenty of reason to believe this year may be more of a transition season than the smashing success that 2013 was. The offensive line underwent a number of significant changes and the Chiefs didn’t do much to improve their situation at receiver, which wasn’t exactly a strength last year. Thus, improvement will have to come from within, as in Smith becoming more efficient, Bowe using his changed offseason approach to return to his dominant ways or second-year TE Travis Kelce delivering on the promise that Reid believes he has. Charles will remain the centerpiece, of course, but asking him to repeat his 2013 success with less help up front and no improvements at the skill positions is a tall order.

How it affects 2014: In all likelihood, ex-Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno will end up muddying the waters in the backfield in the same kind of way Thomas did last season. The one saving grace figures to be new OC Bill Lazor’s plan to install an up-tempo offense in the same image of the Philadelphia Eagles, whom he just left. It is anybody’s guess as to whether or not Miller will run with more physicality – at least to the point where the Dolphins are satisfied – but it seems to be a pretty good bet at the moment that Moreno (or maybe even Thomas) will get that the short-yardage and goal-line work. Lazor will probably opt to triple or quadruple Tannehill’s five red-zone rushing attempts from a season ago, meaning he should enjoy a considerable bump in fantasy value based on his running ability. Expect Clay to lead the team in red-zone targets again, with Wallace not far behind and rookie WR Jarvis Landry pushing Hartline for third place.

How it affects 2014: As I have stated a time or two already this spring and summer, Minnesota improved its play-calling prowess exponentially when it landed Norv Turner to replace Musgrave. With Peterson at his disposal, Turner could very give his new stud back at least 50 red-zone carries – like Musgrave did during Peterson’s 2000-yard rushing season in 2012. Rudolph is the favorite to lead the Vikings in red-zone targets if he stays healthy, if only because the fourth-year tight end has proven to be such a strong threat in the end zone. Patterson will run a close second in all likelihood and it is fair to say that rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater – along with Turner’s play-calling – will greatly increase the Vikings’ efficiency inside the 20.