Gaining an edge is important in any competitive endeavor. Think
about it: how often has a media outlet ever received credit for
being the second to report a news story? Similarly, it doesn’t
matter if you beat 10 other owners in your 12-team league to the
punch on a hot-shot player if the 11th owner got to him first. In
short, fantasy football is a bottom-line business and the only thing
that matters at the end of the day is whether or not our players
contribute enough to beat our opponents. But part of reaching that
point is getting a jump on the competition by figuring out which
players are standing out in the offseason (and just as importantly,
which ones are not) so we can narrow our focus ever so slightly
on the players that really matter to us.
Each year, it seems as though every team is optimistic about
at least one change it made and/or at least one player that dominated
offseason workouts. While much of the hype never comes to fruition
on the football field, the fact that some of it will play out
means fantasy owners need to pay attention. Beat writers and,
in some cases, national columnists often serve as our only windows
into what happens on the practice field in May and June, making
it important to monitor what they say – even if most of
it is coach-speak and exaggeration.
For owners in dynasty leagues, this time of the year often presents
a window to deal away a player on your roster whose value you
are certain has hit its zenith (or deal for a player whose value
is supposedly spiraling). Offseason reports are the only piece
of information most owners have at their disposal, so “verification”
that Player X’s role is about to expand or decrease can
sometimes be all the push an owner needs to submit/approve a trade
they have been stalling on for days or weeks.
As a result, over the next two weeks, I’ll be doing what
I can to eliminate the fluff and give readers a decent (some may
even say respectable) opinion on how the offseason buzz from all
32 teams translates to fantasy owners. This week, we’ll
take a look at what is buzz-worthy in the AFC:
Baltimore
Wide receiver is going to be a hot topic in “Charm City”
(or
any other one of your favorite nicknames for Baltimore, including
the “Crab Cake Capital of the World”). By now, most
of the NFL world is familiar with the breathtaking speed (sub-4.3)
and drop rate (13.7 percent) of first-rounder Breshad
Perriman in his final year at Central Florida. So far, he has
accentuated the former (while also showing off impressive ball
skills) and eliminated
the latter, well, at
least he did for a short while. But that’s not it. The
No. 26 overall pick has impressed the coaches in other ways as
well; new OC Marc Trestman told the Baltimore
Sun in early June “What we saw on tape is what we are
getting. We really liked what we saw on tape, obviously. And what
we’re getting is a guy who is continually improving. He
has a good understanding of the game. He’s not just a fast
guy, he’s a smart guy. So, that’s really awesome to
see that he’s a quick learner, and he’s catching the
ball and making plays just like we saw him do on tape.”
Perriman isn’t the only rookie receiver turning heads and
making a good first impression in Ravens’ camp. Undrafted
free agent WR DeAndre Carter (5-8, 185) didn’t arrive in
Baltimore with the same fanfare as the team’s top pick,
but he’s already earned drawn a quite impressive comparison
from another receiver that knows what is life is like in the NFL
for smurf-sized receivers in Steve Smith. “I like [that]
he’s hungry. I just love his attitude. I see a young Randall
Cobb in him,” Smith told the
team’s official website in late May. Carter will likely
have to make the team as a returner at first, standing out in
that area already as well. Like Smith and Cobb before him, the
Sacramento State product could turn his special teams prowess
into regular offensive snaps down the road if continues to excel
in the kicking game.
Trestman has been able to do a few things in his long and multi-layered
NFL coaching career, two of which have been overseeing productive
passing offenses and boosting the catch totals of his running
backs. There have been seven instances where a running back has
caught at least 69 passes in a season under Trestman: San Francisco's
Derek Loville, Arizona's Larry Centers and Michael Pittman, Oakland's
Charlie Garner (twice) and Chicago's Matt Forte (twice). RB Justin
Forsett is a very good bet to make that eight. "That will
be a (big) part of what we're doing," HC John Harbaugh said
in regards to his running
backs being involved in the passing game.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Like
most teams, veterans get the early nod in OTAs and minicamps.
As a result, Kamar Aiken has ahead of Perriman thus far. Aiken
has a bit of a rapport with Joe Flacco (24 catches and three touchdowns
a season ago) and enough natural athleticism to make the rookie
work, but Perriman is probably going to have to fall on his face
in camp or during the preseason in order to not start Week 1.
As a more complete receiver than his predecessor (Torrey Smith),
it is conceivable the UCF product becomes the top target for Flacco
before the end of the year. He warrants low-end WR3 in standard
leagues and high-end WR4 consideration in PPR formats given the
likelihood that he will settle into a Torrey Smith-like role for
at least half of his first professional season. Carter gets a
mention here for the dynasty folks looking for a deep sleeper
in their rookie drafts, especially those that reward return yards.
Steve Smith isn’t the type of player that hands out compliments
frequently, so it is notable he is speaking in glowing terms about
the former FCS standout. Forsett could really have the best of
both worlds this season. Baltimore is keeping former OC Gary Kubiak’s
zone-running scheme, the one that allowed Forsett to record his
first 1,000-yard season at the age of 29. Trestman’s offense
is a great fit for the same player who spent most of the early
part of his career as a third-down back, so the only question
that remains is how much of the workload fourth-rookie Javorius
“Buck” Allen will take from him. In Trestman’s
offense, Forsett easily has RB1 upside in PPR formats and high-end
RB2 appeal in standard leagues.
Buffalo
WR Sammy Watkins’ first NFL season did not go as planned in some
ways, although one could argue that in any “normal” rookie receiver
year, his 65-982-6 line would have been the talk of the fantasy
offseason. Be that as it may, his “average” numbers had to do
with two other factors that were mostly out of his control: 1)
the quarterback situation and 2) injuries. It should be noted,
however, the former two-time All-American still became only one
of nine wide receivers in the past decade to record at least 65
catches and 980 yards in their rookie season. Everybody already
knew the No. 4 overall pick in the 2014 draft had to deal with
EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton. What they may not have been aware of
is that Watkins was probably never anywhere close to 100 percent
last year. He reportedly played the first several weeks of the
season with broken ribs, suffered in the preseason. Then, just
as the ribs began to heal, he showed up on the injury report for
five straight games with a groin injury. Just as he seemed to
be getting over that, he hurt his hip against the Cleveland Browns
in late-November, playing through that injury the remainder of
the season (before undergoing offseason surgery).
Since the idea of RB LeSean McCoy topping
300 carries in 2015 should not be a shock to any veteran fantasy
owner, perhaps we should focus our attention on the player(s)
who will be responsible for getting Watkins the ball. Most have
assumed the job will go to Matt Cassel or EJ Manuel, but very
few are giving unrestricted free-agent signing Tyrod Taylor much
of a chance and that could be a mistake. The fourth-year veteran
has a few in the organization convinced he could be the Week 1
starter and it should be noted that when new HC Rex Ryan was with
the Jets, he tried to trade for the former Raven backup. "We looked
at him hard when I was with Rex with the Jets. He's got that uncommon
speed at our position. … He's in this competition as much as anybody
to get the starting job,” quarterback coach David
Lee told reporters in late May.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Perhaps no team upgraded their
offensive skill positions more this offseason than the Bills,
who added McCoy, Percy Harvin and Charles Clay. While this is
good news in a general sense, Watkins’ owners need to be prepared
for the possibility that he may only match what he did last season
since Buffalo has more weapons this year, a great defense and
a coaching staff that wants to hide (or believes in hiding) the
quarterback as much as possible. Watkins’ limitless talent should
keep him in the WR2 discussion, but he should be a considered
a low-end option in that regard since he
is in line for fewer targets than the 128 he had a season
ago. The one thing that could change that is if Taylor is able
to beat out Cassel and Manuel for the starting job. Taylor only
has 35 regular-season pass attempts to his name, so keep in mind
he might as well be an old rookie. His 54.3 career completion
percentage on those attempts also doesn’t inspire much confidence,
but he flashed on occasion in the preseason while with Baltimore
and his above-average ability as a runner makes him a good fit
for new OC Greg Roman, who made great use of the read-option in
San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick in recent years. Taylor should
be considered an extreme longshot to contribute in fantasy this
year, but I tend to believe he is the only one of three signal-callers
in the running for the starting job that has a realistic shot
to be a fantasy factor in 2015.
Cincinnati
Assuming A.J. Green’s injury-plagued 2014 season turns out to
be the exception and not the rule, the most important fantasy
football discussion in Cincinnati is at running back. Jeremy Hill
led the league in rushing over the last nine games of the year
while Giovani Bernard became mostly an afterthought as a runner.
To give owners some indication on how the backfield changed last
year, consider these facts and figures: Bernard averaged 15.6
carries and 42.3 snaps per game before Week 9 while Hill averaged
7.1 carries and 19.3 snaps. After that, Bernard averaged 9.8 carries
and 30.8 snaps in six games after he returned from a hip injury
while Hill nearly tripled the number of times per game he carried
the football and doubled his average snap counts. Hill, not Bernard,
is under the impression the backfield
distribution will be more balanced this season. "I don't think
(OC Hue Jackson needs) to wear either one of us out, so that way
we can make it through all 16 games for a playoff push," Hill
said.
Since there has been very few updates regarding the return of
WR Marvin Jones (other than he has been cleared from last season’s
foot injury and suffered a minor hamstring tweak before OTAs),
the obvious other talking point is the health of TE Tyler Eifert.
The Bengals let former first-rounder Jermaine Gresham leave in
the offseason, cementing the former Golden Domer’s spot atop the
depth chart. Eifert was limited to one game last season thanks
to a dislocated elbow, which was one of two injuries/surgeries
he is recovering from this offseason (shoulder). Cincinnati is
counting
on the third-year pro to stay healthy this season and not
only deliver on the promise of being a rare first-round tight
end, but also be the player that hauled in a pass on each of the
first three series of the Bengals’ season before suffering the
elbow injury.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: There has been hardly a peep
about Green’s toe, thigh or the concussion that kept him out of
the team’s Wild-Card Round loss to the Colts, so he’s on track
to return to high-end WR1 status. Hill is the clear leader for
early-down work in Cincinnati and should do enough in the passing
game to be considered a fantasy RB1 in all leagues, but he is
not without flaws – he had five fumbles last season while Bernard
had none. Jackson’s devotion to the running game will allow for
enough volume to keep Bernard productive as well. He figures to
remain the electric change-of-pace back for Hill and should be
considered a strong RB3/flex in PPR formats and a lower-end RB3/flex
in standard. Jones should overtake Mohamed Sanu, who will probably
operate more out of the slot, and operate as a field-stretcher
while Green and Eifert hog most of the targets. Eifert could easily
find himself in the low-end TE1 discussion in all leagues; staying
healthy enough to do that figures to be his biggest obstacle now
that Gresham is gone.
Cleveland
Running back is about the only position owners should spend any
real time with in regards to the 2015 Browns. Andrew Hawkins is
a nice slot receiver, but it is hard to imagine many fantasy titles
will be won due to the season-long contributions of WR Dwayne
Bowe, WR Brian Hartline, TE Rob Housler or QB Josh McCown. The
same cannot be said about RBs Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson.
The 2015 third-round rookie wasted
little time making his mark in Cleveland’s offseason practices,
showing off the kind of explosiveness and versatility that convinced
GM Ray Farmer he is a
younger version of Giovani Bernard and Brian Westbrook. In
fact, RB coach Wilbert Montgomery used Bernard as a
model of how he expects Johnson to be utilized and even offered
a comparison to Hall of Famer Thurman Thomas recently. ESPN’s
Adam Caplan has gone so far as to say he could see the Miami (Fla.)
product becoming a three-down back. Others believe Crowell is
the odds-on favorite for early-down and (most likely) short-yardage/goal-line
work.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: With new OC
John DeFilippo keeping former play-caller Kyle Shanahan’s zone-running
scheme intact, there are plenty of reason owners should be hopeful
that a Browns’ runner can be a useful weekly option. However,
there are plenty of questions, most notably: 1) Will the team
mix-and-match
at the position like it did on a weekly basis at different
points of last season and 2) Is there any reason to believe Johnson
will be a three-down back in 2015? I tend to think the answers
to those questions are “yes” and “no”, respectfully. Crowell and
Johnson are simply too talented to keep off the field for long
stretches, so they might as well be used to complement each other.
Terrance West is also in the mix and has
reportedly performed nicely so far under the new offensive
leadership, although he is the most likely to be on the outside
looking in when all is said and done. The bigger problem is around
midseason last year, the Browns were anything but predictable
in terms of how they handed out touches each week to their running
backs. Based on the OTA reports from the team, they appear committed
to that approach. The good news is that Cleveland should have
enough volume to make two backs useful. Whether it will be the
same two backs each week is the bigger question. Based on how
giddy the Browns appear to be with Johnson, expect him to be a
serviceable RB3 in all formats as the only game-changing threat
the offense has in the passing game. Crowell’s likely lack of
work in the passing game should keep him in the same neighborhood,
although he stands to be more valuable in the standard leagues
than in PPR leagues.
Denver
Some players know when it is their time. It also helps when a
former boss – in this case ex-OC Adam Gase – reminds them of the
importance of staying on top of their game. Gase told the
Denver Post in early May: “He would hate me for saying this
— but he got tired and was a little chubby sometimes. I mean,
he got worn down quick and then we had to rotate backs in last
year.” Those comments weren’t entirely unwarranted as C.J. Anderson
weighed 243 pounds about this time last year. As of June 1, 2015,
the
former undrafted free agent is 221 pounds – two pounds lighter
than he was during the final few weeks of last year’s breakout
season. "I am taking this to the next level. ... Even this summer,
I am going to lose even a little more weight and get a little
leaner,” Anderson told the Denver Post. As great as Anderson was
during the second half of the regular season – he rushed for 767
yards and eight touchdowns over the final eight games – the third-year
back understands the opportunity he has under new HC Gary Kubiak’s
zone-running scheme. "That's what I am playing to do, be that
guy. That's what (Kubiak) wants me to do. … I am going to go out
here every day and continue to show the coaches they are right."
Perhaps QB Peyton Manning gave him the
biggest endorsement of the offseason, telling ESPN: “If you
talk to him you think he's about a 12-year veteran starter and
he's only started (seven) games. I'm getting a ton of reps with
him and the sky is the limit for him, I will say that."
It is one thing for owners to predict a receiver’s inability
to match his career-best numbers from a season ago, but it is
a whole other thing when the player himself suggests himself that
a drop in production is likely coming. “Of course obviously it’s
not going to be one of those offenses – well I’m praying that
it is – but obviously it’s not going to be one of those offenses
where you catch it and you’re going to have two receivers catching
over 100 passes,” Emanuel Sanders told the
team’s official website in late May. Sanders’ comments were
the result of seeing Kubiak’s offense up close for the first time,
which will probably feature a significant drop in snaps from the
slot, where Sanders did a lot of damage last season. Kubiak tends
to feature two-tight sets and Denver has already stated its desire
to get more work for second-year WR Cody Latimer, which could
mean a few less snaps for both Sanders and Demaryius Thomas.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Fantasy owners are reluctant
to buy into Anderson as the long-term starter in Denver in large
part because of the turnover atop the Bronco’s depth chart in
recent years. This year should be different; the Cal product generated
455 of his 849 rushing yards after contact last season and carried
the offense over the second half of the season. (I’m not sure
there is a more underrated stat among the fantasy community as
a whole when it comes to running backs than yards after contact.)
To put that number in some context, it is the same number of yards
after contact Jonathan Stewart generated in Carolina on four fewer
carries. His 2.54 yards after contact per attempt tied DeMarco
Murray for 12th among rushers that had at least 25
percent of their teams’ carries a season ago. On Anderson’s frame
(5-8), he can still be plenty powerful at 220 pounds, while his
reduced weight should enable to break more big runs. While owners
would be wise to handcuff Anderson to Montee Ball, the former
has the potential to be the rushing yardage champion in Kubiak’s
offense and could easily be a steal early in the second round
of drafts. Thomas and Sanders became the first teammates since
2005 (Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin) to amass over 1,400 receiving
yards in the same season. Both could struggle to hit that mark
in 2015, but particularly Sanders. In Kubiak’s seven-plus seasons
as the Texans’ head coach, no No. 2 receiver finished with more
than 899 receiving yards. While the case can be made that Manning
is much better than Matt Schaub and Sanders is no Kevin Walter,
it should provide some insight about the challenge Sanders will
have topping 1,000 receiving yards this season. As a result, he’ll
likely be little more than a WR3 in fantasy this season.
Houston
The Texans are going to be on HBO’s Hard Knocks. For the
first time in what seems like years, RB Arian Foster is healthy
and has been available to practice every day and HC Bill O’Brien
even assured
fantasy owners that “as long as he’s healthy and he’s out
there, we will run the ball. I can tell you that. That’s one thing
we will do." O’Brien also told
ESPN in early June that “(WR) DeAndre Hopkins, we think, is
one of the best in the league.” With so much certaintythese
days in Houston, there are really only two spots worth discussing
(seeing as how Texans’ tight ends ranked 31st in PPR
and standard league scoring last year): quarterback and the receiver
who will start opposite Hopkins. O’Brien insisted last week he
has no
plans to name a starting quarterback (Brian Hoyer or Ryan
Mallett) before the team has joint practices with Washington or
even after the preseason opener against San Francisco.
So, we are left with the competition (if we can even call it
that) between former Jaguar Cecil Shorts, ex-Titan Nate Washington
and third-rounder Jaelen Strong at receiver after the Texans moved
on from Andre Johnson in the offseason. O’Brien has already stated
that he intends on Strong playing
as an outside receiver only in his rookie season while Shorts
will play both inside
and outside. Given that the second-year coach understands
his offense’s strength is the running game, it seems extremely
unlikely that Houston will utilize many three-wide sets (relatively
speaking to the rest of the league, of course). Using last year
as an example, third receiver Damaris Johnson logged 586 snaps
while second tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz had 485. Admittedly, the
circumstances are different – Damaris Johnson was not going to
steal snaps from Hopkins or Andre Johnson unless one of them needed
a rest – but one would have to think that Shorts is going to start
and absorb most of Andre Johnson’s 946 snaps from a season ago
in the unlikely event he can stay healthy enough to do so. And
that is where it gets tricky: Shorts has yet to play a full season
in four years and missed at least three games three times. Strong
is limited to outside duties and enters the league needing to
improve on his route-running. Will he even be able to replace
Shorts on the outside if/when the veteran is sidelined or will
Washington be asked to fill that role?
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The story has been the same
on Foster for a few years now – RB1 when healthy and a good bet
to miss a few games. Perhaps the combination of former Eagle Chris
Polk (along with Alfred Blue) can help the team overcome a short-term
injury to Foster. Hopkins is on the doorstep of being a fantasy
WR1 and should probably be able to kick down that door this season.
The quarterback situation in Houston isn’t great to say the least,
but one of the league’s best running games and a potentially great
defense should allow the Texans to get away with league-average
play at the position more often than not. Outside of Hopkins,
there isn’t a receiver worth considering for redraft purposes
in most normal-sized leagues. If O’Brien could tell Andre Johnson
that he would catch about 40 passes in his new role in 2015, the
odds are very strong that Shorts isn’t going to exceed that mark.
I do expect the combination of Shorts, Washington and Strong to
come pretty close to matching Andre Johnson’s 85 catches from
a season ago, but two or three receivers splitting about 80 receptions
isn’t going to help many fantasy owners.
Indianapolis
Pretty much all the buzz about the Colts this offseason centers
around one position: wide receiver. Andre Johnson pretty much
ditched his Volvo for a Lamborghini when he left Houston’s quarterback
situation to join forces with Andrew Luck. While Texans HC Bill
O’Brien suggested to Johnson that he would catch about 40 passes
in Houston in 2015 before his release, the Colts have no
such reservations about the 33-year-old (34 in July). In Indianapolis,
Johnson will be asked to fill the possession receiver void left
behind by fellow Miami (Fla.) alum Reggie Wayne, who caught 106
passes in 2012 before tearing his ACL the following year and looking
every bit of 36 years of age in 2014.
The Colts stunned the NFL world on draft night, selecting yet
another Hurricane receiver in Phillip Dorsett, ignoring their
offensive line and run defense woes in the process. There doesn’t
seem to be a lot of room for him initially, but don’t
tell that to his new team. ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells
stated in late May the team's No. 3 receiver job is “an open competition”
between Donte Moncrief, Dorsett, Duron Carter and Vincent Brown
and that Dorsett is "too talented not find a way to get snaps
for him”.
There is no doubt Frank Gore will open the season as the starting
running back. However, counting on a 32-year-old to be a workhorse
is always a dicey proposition, even more so for a physical inside
runner like Gore. Dan Herron stepped up after Trent Richardson
disappointed and Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season last year,
but the fact the team pursued Gore sent a pretty clear message
the Colts wanted Herron strictly as a reserve. Enter sixth-round
selection Josh Robinson, who was probably the closest thing the
draft offered to Gore in terms of running style. “The running
style, he fits what we do. … He’s a bowling ball and that’s what
they call him. To put up the yards he did in the SEC with a 6.3-yard
average, that speaks for itself in that conference,” GM Ryan
Grigson said upon drafting the Mississippi State product.
In 2014, Robinson averaged 3.5 yards after contact (per attempt)
and led the SEC with 11 rushing touchdowns, serving as further
evidence Indy is getting its physical runner for the future.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Johnson has famously never
had a 10-touchdown season despite surpassing 100 catches five
times in his career. As crazy as it sounds for a soon-to-be 34-year-old,
he could do it this season and will undoubtedly be a key part
of the passing attack. He should be a rock-solid WR2 in all leagues.
The Colts’ passing game figures to support as many as five fantasy-relevant
receivers and/or tight ends, but the uncertain nature of the No.
3 receiving spot casts some doubt on that possibility. Moncrief
(6-2, 221) should have the advantage over Dorsett (5-10, 185)
given his advantages in size, experience and overall athleticism,
but the Colts might also choose to mix in Dorsett more often than
we expect just to be sure they know what they have should T.Y.
Hilton ask for too much money as a free agent next offseason.
For now, Moncrief and Dorsett should both be considered high-upside
WR5 candidates until the situation is resolved. Robinson is an
intriguing end-of-draft option in yearly leagues and a fascinating
stash in dynasty formats. Gore could easily be one-and-done as
a Colt and Robinson is good enough in the passing game that he
could become a featured back should Gore begin to feel his age
or get injured. We already know the team loves his physical running
style.
Jacksonville
The majority of talk coming out of Jaguars’ camp this offseason
has to do with their commitment to the running game or the player
they expect to be the centerpiece of it – second-round pick RB
T.J. Yeldon. The rookie got the all-important endorsement from
a veteran linebacker early in OTAs as Paul Posluszny told
the team’s official website in early June: “He looks really
good in short-area change of direction. He looks really, really
good there. It’s, ‘How does a guy move in space? How athletic
is he?’ That’s what stands out. With him, he definitely has it.”
New OC Greg Olsen did not dismiss the possibility of the rookie
becoming the featured back, telling
the Florida Times Union: “(Playing every down) would be asking
a lot of any player. I wouldn’t put it past him. He’s another
real self-starter and hard worker.” Thanks in part to the addition
of TE Julius Thomas, Jacksonville is also considering a “steady
diet” of three-tight end looks with Clay Harbor or Nic Jacobs
– another clear indication the team will depend heavily on the
running game.
In a change that probably happened one year too late for both
player and team, RB Toby Gerhart seems to be adapting quite well
to Olsen’s offense, which features more inside zone runs than
Jedd Fisch’s did last year. The ex-Viking was the
most pleasant surprise of OTAs, according to ESPN’s Mike DiRocco,
who reported the big back is “finally healthy again” and stated
“it’s evident that he's rejuvenated by Olson's offense”. In other
running back news, the Florida Times Union reported there was
“an
unmistakable buzz” surrounding rookie free agent Corey Grant,
who went undrafted despite posting 4.24 and 4.26 times at his
pro day. “The initial returns are really good. … There are players
who are stopwatch fast, and it doesn’t transition (into games).
That’s where scouting comes in. Corey is a guy that clocks fast
and, right now, is playing fast,” GM Dave Caldwell said. The former
part-timer at Auburn doesn’t shy away from contact, which might
help his cause as he attempts to secure kick-returning duties
before hopefully making noise as a running back down the road.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Redraft owners only need to
concern themselves with Yeldon, who has been favorably compared
to Le’Veon Bell and Arian Foster. Efficiency may end up being
a problem for the rookie runner as the Jags face a number of difficult
run defenses over the first half of the season. Volume should
not be an issue, however, as Jacksonville appears committed to
lightening the load on second-year QB Blake Bortles after rushing
him into the lineup last season. Yeldon’s presumptive workload
should allow him to post low-end RB2 numbers in all formats, although
Gerhart and Denard Robinson could each be a bit of a drain on
his overall numbers if they steal some third-down work. The thing
is, though, Yeldon isn’t just an early-down banger that needs
to come off the field on third down. The Jags would be wise to
let Yeldon show he cannot withstand the punishment of being a
three-down NFL back first. Gerhart is Yeldon’s most likely handcuff
and warrants a late-round pick as a result. Grant gets a mention
here for owners in leagues that reward players for return yardage
as well as dynasty leaguers that love uncovering that one player
on nobody else’s radar.
Kansas
City
Barring a monumental shift in philosophy or a rash of injuries,
there are two reasons owners need to care about the Chiefs despite
the addition of WR Jeremy Maclin: TE Travis Kelce and the running
back position. When Kansas City released “starter” Anthony Fasano
in the offseason, it became clear the Kelce was ready to take
the bull by the horns. He identified three areas he wanted to
change/improve upon after his breakout 2014 campaign: 1) add 10
pounds in order to help him improve as an inline blocker (he’s
at 255 at last check), 2) get a better grasp of HC Andy Reid’s
playbook (to which Reid
signed off in early June) and 3) improve his ball security
(three lost fumbles). Most Kelce owners remember that he was criminally
underutilized for a good part of last season, but it turns out
it was part of a
predetermined plan in order to keep him healthy for the long
term after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee in 2013.
RB Jamaal Charles will turn 29 in December, but don’t tell him
that. “I feel like I’m young all over again. I feel like I am
20, 21. I feel good, I feel healthy, I eat right, I take vitamins,
I do yoga. I am doing everything I am supposed to do to keep my
body up at age,” Charles told the
Kansas City Star in mid-June. “I want to play another six
years, so my form is to keep on taking my diet.” Charles is down
to 204 pounds – he has stated he typically starts at 207 – and
has told backup Knile Davis he wants to play
for six more years. Speaking of Davis, he doesn’t believe
there is a much of a gap – if
any at all – between him and the Chiefs’ four-time Pro Bowler.
“Be available and stay healthy and when Jamaal needs a blow, I’ll
go,’’ Davis told ESPN when asked what he expected his role to
be. “When it’s my turn, I’ll turn it on. (Charles) is the starter.
It’s his time. I’m waiting (until) my time.’’
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Kelce had the sixth-most catches
at his position last year despite ranking 23rd in snaps
at his position, according to Pro Football Focus. Given the release
of Fasano and the trade of Jimmy Graham to Seattle, it is entirely
possible Kelce is the only tight end in the NFL that gives New
England’s Rob Gronkowski a run for his money as the top fantasy
option at the position. Fasano accounted for 25 catches, 226 yards
and four scores last year – most of which will probably go to
either Kelce or Maclin this year. Kansas City tight ends finished
with 96 grabs for 1,111 yards and nine TDs a year ago, so Kelce
is a very good bet to improve up on his 67-862-5 line from 2014.
Charles is healthy again after battling injuries last season and
seems excited about the improvements the team made along its offensive
line, most notably the trade for LG Ben Grubbs. He’s in the mix
to be the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy and should go inside the
top five in just about any draft. ESPN’s Adam Teicher pointed
out where Davis falls short of Charles – mostly as a receiver
or pass-blocker – but his time is coming. His rookie contract
expires after the 2016 season and the 23-year-old will not struggle
to find work as he is one of the best backup running backs in
the league. Dynasty leaguers should try to buy low now.
Miami
There has been precious little talk about fifth-round RB Jay Ajayi
this spring, so the majority of fantasy discussion belongs to
the receiver position. No. 14 overall pick DeVante Parker underwent
foot surgery on June 5 to replace a screw from a previous surgery
and will be out 8-12 weeks, putting him in danger of missing most
of training camp and/or the preseason. As a result of that surgery
and QB Ryan Tannehill’s well-documented troubles throwing the
deep ball, Jarvis Landry figures to be the go-to
guy in the passing game, particularly in the early part of
the season. To help that cause, OC Bill Lazor plans on leaving
defenses “scrambling and confused” by moving receivers to different
positions, which includes giving Landry some snaps on the boundary
– something
Landry covets.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Until we get some kind of
feedback on how Ajayi is progressing in offseason practices, we’ll
have to assume he’ll be Lamar Miller’s “breather back”. Ajayi
has a feature-back skill-set, however, so perhaps we’ll get a
better read of his prospects in August. As for Landry, he’s going
to spend a lot of time in the slot regardless of how much the
Dolphins want to move receivers around – Miami’s long-term future
figures to have Kenny Stills and Parker on the outside and Landry
in the slot. Assuming Tannehill remains a poor deep-ball thrower,
it is good news for his redraft- and dynasty-league value in PPR
formats. Landry figures to remain a high-end WR3 in PPR leagues
and a low-end one in standard formats.
New
England
Since it is unclear how long QB Tom Brady will be suspended at
the moment due to his appeal of NFL executive vice president of
football operations Troy Vincent’s four-game sentence, discussing
backup Jimmy Garoppolo’s offseason exploits seems rather pointless.
A discussion about WR Brandon LaFell this time last year might
have been almost as inane, except for the fact he nearly became
a top-20 fantasy receiver in his first as a Patriot after four
disappointing seasons with Carolina. The 28-year-old USC product
was in the news last week after he showed up to a charity function
with his left foot in a walking boot, which apparently was the
reason he did not participate in OTAs. In his absence, third-year
WR Aaron Dobson is “taking
advantage of his opportunities” during offseason workouts.
The former second-round pick has been hampered by foot and hip
injuries ever since flashing as a rookie over the first nine games
of the 2013 season.
Third-down RB Shane Vereen left New England for the Giants after
capping his four-year Patriots’ career with 11 catches in the
Super Bowl, leaving a somewhat underrated but important role open
for a bunch of challengers. The leading candidates to replace
him are 2014 fourth-rounder James White, former Saint Travaris
Cadet and the oft-injured Dion Lewis. White is reportedly “in
the driver’s seat” and Brady “clearly (had) more of a comfort
level” with him and veteran Brandon Bolden than the others during
OTAs. Whatever hold he may have is tenuous at best, in part because
he fell off the map after being the talk of training camp last
year. The biggest threat to White’s grasp on the job figures to
come from Cadet, who is slightly bigger (6-1, 210) than White
(5-10, 205) and has the experience of learning from one of the
best passing-down backs in recent memory in Darren Sproles. The
Boston Globe’s Ben Volin speculated Cadet has “a
leg up” in the competition last week before the Boston Herald
stated White “looks
like a carbon copy of Vereen”, which sounds like a pretty
strong endorsement for the second-year pro.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It’s obviously too early to
worry about LaFell’s redraft value falling as a result of this
injury (one you can be sure the Patriots will not expand upon),
but assuming he is a full-go by training camp, he has a good chance
to outperform his 8.10 ADP in PPR and 9.08 in standard leagues.
Dobson isn’t even getting drafted (according to Fantasy Football
Calculator), but he could easily become fantasy-relevant early
in the season if he can merely stay healthy. He’s one of the best
bets among undrafted fantasy players to be an every-week starter
at some point in 2015. If Bolden wasn’t considered such a valuable
special-teams contributor, he could end up with Vereen’s old job.
That doesn’t appear to be an option, so let the games begin between
White, Cadet and Lewis. The odds are extremely high the battle
comes down to the first two players, with no clear leader likely
to emerge before the start of the preseason – no matter what the
two Boston papers lead us to believe. If I’m a betting man, I’d
roll the dice on White winning the job with Cadet possibly returning
kicks and getting sprinkled in on occasion as a slot receiver.
The winner of the competition has a chance to be a low-end RB2
in PPR and a decent flex in standard leagues.
New
York Jets
Owners looking for some kind of certainty going into the summer
aren’t going to find it on the Jets, who had new OC Chan Gailey
imply that QB Geno Smith “could
not lose the job in camp to Ryan Fitzpatrick”, only
to be somewhat refuted by new HC Todd Bowles a week later.
At running back, injury-prone Chris Ivory (coming off his first
16-game season in five years in the league) sits atop the depth
chart. Behind him, Stevan Ridley (ACL) doesn’t know if he’ll be
ready for camp, leaving ex-Ram Zac Stacy as the only one of the
three likely contenders for the early-down back role without a
worrisome injury history. Bilal Powell was second on Bowles’ list
when he was asked for a depth chart by ESPN’s Rich Cimini on June
11, although one has to wonder if that is because the coach sees
him as the No. 1 option on passing downs and Ivory as the top
option on early downs.
With so much uncertainty at running back, the best fantasy value
could actually come from the tight ends and wide receivers. Second-year
TE Jace Amaro was always going to be a poor fit in Marty Mornhinweg's
West Coast offense because he is a receiver in a tight end’s body
and doesn’t offer much in the way of blocking. Gailey is more
of a proponent of the spread offense, which should give Amaro
many more opportunities to use his 6-5, 265-pound frame in mismatch
situations that he was so adept at creating at Texas Tech. Eric
Decker returns, but should be the clear second option in this
offense after the team acquired fellow WR Brandon Marshall from
Chicago. The New York Post reported in late May that Marshall
and Smith got together in south Florida shortly together after
his trade from the Bears in March to work out and further
the bonding process that began a few years ago. “I was just
blown away by his maturity and how much (Smith) knows; this kid
is really smart. The sky is the limit for him,” Marshall said.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Smith is a prime example of
a player that is on his way to being considered a bust despite
the fact he hasn’t been given much of a chance to succeed. While
the run-heavy attack made sense to ease Smith into the pro game,
Mornhinweg's inability to adapt his offense to the second-year
signal caller and the Jets’ inability to give him anything more
than Decker over his first two seasons set him up to fail. Gailey’s
offense has seen average talents like Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen
go crazy, so I will be eyeing Smith as a low-end QB2 option that
will almost certainly be available in the last round of about
every draft – now that he has an offense that he has proven he
can operate in and a capable supporting cast. Most “Y” tight end-types
like Amaro scare me because they are like third-down backs in
that they are part-time players that see about a third of the
team’s snaps. While I do expect Amaro to improve on his 38-345-2
rookie line, I’d be stunned if he emerges as anything more than
a mid-level TE2 this year. Decker had a strong close to his first
year as a Jet, which allowed him to finish with a respectable
74 catches and 962 yards. Given the likelihood that New York will
pass more under Gailey in 2015, the ex-Bronco is probably a good
bet to come relatively close to those numbers again. Marshall
is probably going to be viewed as the biggest wild-card, but should
he be? Last year, he missed games for the first time in four seasons.
The five-time Pro Bowler has caught at least 81 passes in all
but two of his nine years in the league, which is quite the achievement
for a receiver playing for his fourth team and whose best quarterback
over that time was Jay Cutler. Marshall may not be a popular WR2
selection in many leagues due to the public perception of the
Jets’ quarterback situation, but the odds are he’ll deliver that
kind of production.
Oakland Not even the knowledge that new OC Bill Musgrave is running
the Raiders’ offense can stop the hype train coming out of Oakland
this summer. RB Latavius Murray was a spectator for the better
part of his first 1 ½ years as a pro, but one Thursday night performance
last season left owners drooling (four carries, 112 yards and
two touchdowns in Week 12 before suffering a concussion). According
to ESPN’s Adam Caplan, the previous regime thought the 6-3, 225-pound
physical freak improved as a pass blocker over the course of last
year, but the team’s unwillingness to trust him any earlier than
it did stemmed from inconsistent practice performance. Caplan’s source
went on to say, “(Murray) has a chance at a huge year in this
system. Because he is smart, physically a freak." New HC
Jack Del Rio wants to play power football and has
not hesitated in giving Murray the opportunity to run
with the starting job.
Oakland hasn't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Randy Moss in 2005, but
that dry spell could be coming to an end after the team selected
WR Amari Cooper with the fourth overall pick. Musgrave’s conservative
play-calling and injury appear to be about the only things that
could stop that from happening. The former Alabama standout is
about as pro-ready as they come and has been generating positive
buzz seemingly every time he steps on the field. One team source told
ESPN’s Adam Caplan
that Cooper is the “real deal” and that he has committed “almost
no mental errors, runs great routes (and is a) consistent route
runner”, which is pretty much the same script we heard throughout
the draft process. ESPN’s Bill Williamson went one step further,
suggesting the first-year wideout is “ready to breakout immediately”.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Oakland
has protected itself at running back, but hasn’t exactly stacked
the deck against Murray by bringing in Roy Helu and Trent Richardson.
Helu should get plenty of work as the main passing-down and occasional
breather back for Murray, who has proven to be much more explosive
than T-Rich. The Raiders are starting to put some pieces in place
up front to build the power-running team Del Rio wants, so Murray
should be able to live up to the fantasy RB2 expectation many
fantasy owners will have for him in 2015. Perhaps I’m a bit too
hard on Musgrave, who has stated he wants his offense to play
with the same kind of pace the Eagles do (after seeing it firsthand
as the QB coach in Philadelphia last year). The problem is that
he has a very poor track record when it comes to leading an offense,
particularly the passing game. Musgrave’s presence is about the
only thing that could keep me from believing Cooper will be an
every-week fantasy WR2 as a rookie.
Pittsburgh
The
talk of the Steelers’ offseason has been WR Martavis Bryant, who apparently approached
his offseason quite seriously. The 6-4 (and now-225 pounder, up from the
200 pounds he was when he left college) second-year Clemson product
worked out as often as three times a day in Hollywood since last
season ended, doing his best to build on the success he enjoyed
over the final 10 games of his rookie campaign (26 receptions,
549 yards and eight TDs). Bryant even earned a congratulatory
“big person with little
person skills”
yell from HC Mike Tomlin during a catch in practice in early June,
serving as a bit of proof that all that work he did on his craft
– including running routes in sand to improve his mobility – will
benefit him in a few months. While the starting job opposite Antonio
Brown is not set in stone yet, the fact that Bryant was “a beast” in OTAs and is the
big receiver (in the Plaxico Burress mold) that QB Ben Roethlisberger
loves obviously bodes well for his Week 1 prospects.
With
much of the focus on RB Le’Veon Bell’s season-opening three-game
suspension, very little has been made of the knee injury that
knocked him out of the Steelers’ playoff loss to the Ravens –
most likely because many expected it to be a non-issue now since
the press didn’t know the seriousness of it back in January. The
first-team All-Pro selection told ESPN in late May that his knee is now close
to 100 percent
and estimated that is was “barely 50 percent in January”.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Bryant
is coming off the board in the middle (standard) to late (PPR)
part of the fifth round, according to Fantasy Football Calculator,
which sounds about right for a player that may exceed 60 catches
and 10-plus scores in 2015. Brown is obviously the alpha male
in the Pittsburgh passing attack, but Roethlisberger is easily
capable of making at least two receivers quite viable in fantasy.
Bryant is a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside. Bell’s knee figures
to be a thing of the past by training camp, but two of several
reasons I included it were to: 1) inform readers his health isn’t
guaranteed heading into the season and 2) serve as a reminder
that owners always need to be leery of “estimates”. Despite the
fact he’ll be sidelined the first three games of the season (pending
appeal), Bell still warrants a pick in the top half of the first
round.
San
Diego
Count QB Philip Rivers among those that would like to see the
Chargers release the beast that could be TE Ladarius Green. "He
looks really good. ... He needs to be a bigger part of it,” the
contract-year signal-caller told San Diego
Union-Tribune beat writer Michael Gehlken. If this
sounds like yesterday’s news, it is because it is. You see, the
soon-to-be fourth-year tight end has been the subject of countless
offseason puff pieces for most of his entire NFL career, but the
team’s use of three-wide (as opposed to two-tight) packages and
the continued solid play of TE Antonio Gates has essentially kept
Green in fantasy purgatory. Just as it appeared the 6-6, 240-pounder
was going to get a break following the departure of WR Eddie Royal,
the Chargers added a better receiver in ex-Bill Steve Johnson
that can win out of the slot or on the outside – potentially stealing
a slot role from Green in the process.
By
all accounts, WR Keenan Allen had a decent season for a second-year
player (77 receptions, 783 yards and four TDs). The problem was
that he fell back significantly from his sensational rookie year
(263 fewer receiving yards despite six more catches, a drop of
4.5 yards per catch and half as many scores). Neither Gehlken
nor Rivers have said or implied that Allen loafed last year, but
the latter told the former that he sees “more focus and determination
this offseason” from the wideout and that Allen “now knows (how difficult
it is) to sustain (his) rookie production”.
Owners
hoping to build their fantasy title run around rookie RB Melvin
Gordon may need to dial back their expectations a bit, especially
if RB Danny Woodhead carries over what he did this offseason into
the regular season. ESPN’s Eric D. Williams stated in mid-June
that “Woodhead (was) one
of the pleasant surprises for the Chargers during offseason work. He has flashed
the quickness and elusiveness that makes him one of the best pass-catching
running backs in the league in his return from a serious ankle
injury”. It should make for an interesting discussion in San Diego
because hours after GM Tom Telesco drafted Gordon, he called the
No. 15 overall pick “the best pass-protecting
back in the draft”.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Green
will likely need Gates, Johnson or WR Malcom Floyd to get injured
to become fantasy-relevant. Gates just turned 35 and has been
locked in as Rivers’ favorite target for years. Johnson got a
fairly nice contract (three years, $10.5 M) and is an upgrade
on Royal, so he’s probably also pretty secure in his position.
Floyd is set to retire after the season and is probably the most
replaceable of the three, but reducing his role without a sharp
decline of his skills could anger players like Rivers and S Eric
Weddle, who – like Floyd – are career Chargers. Rivers and Weddle
are already at odds with management with their contract situations,
so they don’t need to see a player like Floyd (who has been on
the team since 2004) treated disrespectfully. Allen is a great
bet to rebound from his disappointing 2014 in part because
he was able to bounce back near the end of last season. Allen
wouldn’t be the first player to lose his edge a bit as a second-year
pro after a smashing debut. He should be a solid WR2 going forward.
Woodhead is a poor bet for another 182-touch, eight-score season
like he had in his first season with the Chargers, but he should
still be the primary passing-down back for San Diego and solid
RB3 in PPR even if Gordon takes a few third-down snaps from him.
As for the rookie, he should be a solid bet for 225 or more carries
– more than enough to make him a top-end RB2 in all leagues.
Tennessee
For a player that was supposed to take some time to get pro-ready,
No. 2 overall pick QB Marcus Mariota sure appears to be adapting
quickly. The 2014
Heisman Trophy winner earned praise from The Tennessean
beat writer Jim Wyatt during OTAs in early June and got a rousing
endorsement from WR coach Shawn Jefferson, who was also the same
assistant that famously called out WR Justin Hunter as a rookie
in 2013 – citing a lack of toughness, inconsistent hands, mental
mistakes and lack of intensity. That has not been the case with
Mariota. "He is deadly accurate. ... He's the real deal.
A couple years ago I was back in Detroit and when Matthew Stafford
stepped into the huddle the first time, once I heard his voice
and the way he called a play, I said, 'OK, that's a real one right
there.' Same way with Mariota. He's real. He's got the goods.
No. 1, it's his accuracy. No. 2, he's come in and grasped the
offense. And No. 3 is the way the guys respond to him, the way
he's able to go in that huddle and take control," Jefferson
told ESPN on June 10. TE Delanie Walker is also a fan: "The
thing that he does well is he throws the ball right when you come
out of your breaks. For receivers, that's what you want.”
If choosing Mariota was a no-brainer for Tennessee,
then selecting WR Dorial Green-Beckham was the gamble they had
to take and RB David Cobb was the investment they apparently made
to cover for the “mistake” they made in Green-Beckham’s spot (the
second round) last year. DGB was reportedly “completely lost”
when asked to go over plays during a pre-draft visit, strained
a hamstring in rookie minicamp and missed the majority of the
team’s offseason practices. The Titans praised Cobb as a “potential three-down
back” in the days following the draft and then promptly asked him to drop seven
pounds a couple of weeks later. Coincidentally,
that is seven pounds the team wants last year’s second-round pick,
RB Bishop Sankey, to add. And while he is at it, Tennessee would
like Sankey to “have a better grasp
of the offense this year”.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It
is common for a player’s position coach or the head coach to talk
up a certain young player, but relatively rare for another position
coach (who is also a former NFL receiver) to do the back-patting.
It is particularly notable here because Mariota’s “goods” have
a direct impact on Jefferson’s position group. To the surprise
of many (including myself somewhat), Tennessee started the process
of molding
its offense around Mariota’s strengths and are planning to
work out of shotgun “probably
50 or 60" percent of the time in 2015”, which would actually
be a lower figure than last year (although that number is misleading
because the Titans trailed a lot in 2014 and had the immobile
Zach Mettenberger starting for nearly half the season). As a result,
Mariota could enjoy success sooner than most think. The 2015 Rose
Bowl Offensive MVP is already on the QB2 map because of his rare
ability as a runner, but he could emerge as a serviceable matchup-based
starter in fantasy if he carries over his OTA success to the preseason
and regular season. Green-Beckham is about as raw as can be, so
owners should expect next to nothing from him – outside of the
occasional red-zone touchdown – during his rookie season. He was
already a longshot to see major snaps in 2015, so missing all
the work he did in May and June will be next to impossible to
make up. Sankey’s blocking and footwork came under fire last year,
although the Titans’ likely plan to utilize more spread concepts
should help him in theory nearly as much as it should Mariota.
Cobb is considered a power back because of his size (5-11, 232
at rookie camp), but he has drawn a fair amount of criticism as
an east-west runner. In all likelihood, Sankey will probably begin
the season as the lead back while Cobb assumes the role left behind
by Shonn Greene. Whether things stay that way will largely depend
on how much better Sankey is with a year of experience under his
belt. Both players will have to hold off 2014 undrafted free agent
Antonio Andrews, who believes he has as
good of a chance as anybody to be named the starter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.