Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football. In most cases,
they are highly volatile despite the fact that most play-callers
endlessly scheme to make sure 2-3 players are the primary options
in the red zone. There are many reasons for this, but it doesn’t
change the fact that during a given NFL game, the unplanned happens
with regularity. For example, a fullback may vulture the short score
that was originally earmarked for the team’s goal-line specialist
or a team’s fourth receiver gets a bit lucky on a tipped pass
meant for another receiver and comes down with the ball in the end
zone.
For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football
owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered
lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial
to place your chips on the event that is most likely to happen
while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your
fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown
or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly
do we measure this?
One of the older fantasy football adages is that more opportunities
tend to lead to more success. Going into my fourth of measuring
each team’s red-zone activity, my goal with the Red Zone
Report is to break down what each of the 32 teams did inside the
20 last season – individually as well as a team –
in an effort to give you some idea of what happened over the course
of 2014 when offenses marched into scoring territory. What players
were their team’s “bellcow”? Was Demaryius Thomas
targeted on every red-zone throw or did it just seem like it?
How often did Lamar Miller turn a run from inside the 20 into
a touchdown? Which teams were balanced and which ones were unbalanced
with their red-zone play-calling?
Information is typically what you make of it. As I spend the
next month-plus in preparation for my Big Boards, I will refer
to this article on a regular basis. While I focus mostly on what
players may/should exploit their individual matchups in my projections,
there is also something to be said about how stubborn a team is
about running the ball in the red zone or fixated on 1-2 primary
receivers near the goal line. Sustained success in fantasy football
is all in the details and it has been my focus for years that
no owner will have considered more variables in their analysis
than I will.
Obviously, I just touched on a few of the applications for the
data I’m about to present as I attempted to give both player
and team equal time in my analysis. You will notice below that
I have provided all the red-zone information from the team’s
last four seasons so that each of you can observe your trends.
I believe as the years pass, this information will be useful for
the teams that retain their head coaches and/or offensive coordinators
season after season. While I left some brief thoughts for each
team, don’t hesitate to take a few minutes to review each
category I have provided and try to understand why that team opted
to do what it did and the possible resulting carryover for 2015.
With that out of the way, allow me to explain what each of the
headers mean before we get started with my overview on each team’s
red-zone attack philosophy last season:
Att – Pass Attempts Cmp – Completions PaTD – Pass TD PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass RuAtt – Rush Attempt RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone
carries a player had for his team (For example, Andre Ellington
secured 14 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he
had 14.3% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.) RuTD – Rush TD RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run Tar – Red-zone targets Tar % - The percentage of red-zone
targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald
secured 24 of Arizona’s 68 red-zone passing attempts, meaning
he had 34.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.) Rec – Red-zone receptions ReTD – Receiving TD ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone
reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception RZ Pass % - The percentage that
an offense attempted a pass in the red zone Pass % - The percentage that an
offense attempted a pass, regardless of field position RZ Run % - The percentage that an
offense attempted a run in the red zone Run % - The percentage that an offense
attempted a run, regardless of field position
Note: the very detailed-oriented readers will
notice that the targets do not always equal the number of pass
attempts in the “totals” row. This discrepancy comes
as a result of occurrences such as clock-killing “spikes”
in the red zone that do not have an intended receiver.
Overview: Arizona did not have a reliable
quarterback or a proven red-zone runner for most of last season.
Predictably, the Cardinals’ efficiency inside the 20 suffered
once Palmer (ACL) was ruled out for the season after Week 10 and
the numbers from HC Bruce Arians’ first season in charge declined
considerably as a result. Fitzgerald experienced the biggest drop-off
of any one single player, going from 15 catches on 24 red-zone targets
and six touchdowns in 2013 to seven, 10 and zero, respectively.
It doesn’t speak well to the long-term prospects or trust
the team has in Floyd that the recently-retired Carlson was the
team’s second-most targeted player in an offense that doesn’t
really use the tight end much in the passing game.
How it affects 2015: Arians made
it quite clear early on last season that he felt the offense no
longer had to force the ball to Fitzgerald (in the red zone or
anywhere else) and I don’t expect that to change in 2015,
especially considering how high the team appears to be on John
Brown. While the tight end position was targeted 17 times in 2013
and 13 in 2014, last year’s numbers would appear to be the
ceiling of what Arizona should expect at the position this year
with Carlson and Housler no longer around. Look for Niklas to
replace Carlson’s totals, with the remaining 5-10 extra
opportunities getting split between third-round rookie RB David
Johnson, Ellington or John Brown. Although Johnson is bigger than
Ellington and could conceivably take over goal-line carries from
him, I expect Taylor, Grice or another back not already on the
roster to handle those responsibilities in an effort to keep the
top two backs healthy this year.
Atlanta Falcons
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Matt Ryan
60
38
19
31.7
RB
Steven Jackson
32
68.1
6
18.8
1
1.7
0
0
0
RB
Jacquizz Rodgers
8
17
1
12.5
3
5
2
1
50
RB
Devonta Freeman
3
6.4
0
0
5
8.3
4
1
25
RB
Antone Smith
3
6.4
0
0
1
1.7
1
0
0
RB
Patrick DiMarco
4
6.7
1
1
100
WR
Roddy White
13
21.7
9
6
66.7
WR
Julio Jones
11
18.3
7
2
28.6
WR
Harry Douglas
7
11.7
5
2
40
WR
Devin Hester
1
2.1
0
0
7
11.7
3
1
33.3
WR
Eric Weems
2
3.3
2
2
100
TE
Levine Toilolo
5
8.3
3
2
66.7
TE
Bear Pascoe
1
1.7
1
1
100
2014 Totals
60
38
19
31.67%
47
100
7
14.89%
60
100.1
38
19
50.00%
56.07%
62.95%
43.93%
37.05%
2013 Totals
93
51
19
20.43%
51
100.1
8
15.69%
91
98.1
51
19
37.25%
64.58%
67.24%
35.42%
32.76%
2012 Totals
82
54
24
29.27%
78
100
11
14.10%
80
97.4
53
23
43.40%
51.25%
61.93%
48.75%
38.07%
2011 Totals
79
38
18
22.78%
83
100
12
14.46%
77
97.6
38
18
47.37%
48.77%
57.78%
51.23%
42.22%
Overview: The Falcons struggled mightily to run the ball last year
and that certainly was the case inside the 20 as well. Additionally,
it should never come as a surprise whenever a team with two of the
better receivers in the league is able to turn half of their red-zone
catches into touchdowns. Jackson proved more than capable of converting
short runs into scores when he got the chance, but the team’s
overall opportunities inside the 20 took a sizeable hit from 144
(and 160-plus the two prior years) to just 107 in 2014. No one expected
Toilolo to replace Tony Gonzalez, but even Atlanta had to be a bit
disappointed that he ran more routes (457) than Rob Gronkowski (445)
and finished with only 31 catches, 238 yards – a 7.7 YPC average
–and two TDs.
How it affects 2015: In new OC Kyle Shanahan’s last three
seasons as a play-caller (2012-13 with Washington and 2014 with
Cleveland), his offenses have sported red-zone run-pass ratios
of 85-44 (Robert Griffin III’s rookie year), 58-65 and 72-42.
There’s little question the 2015 Falcons possess more skill-position
talent – especially at quarterback and receiver –
than any other offense Shanahan has called plays for in Houston,
Washington and Cleveland, so a more balanced approach figures
to be the way to go. In 2011 and 2013, Shanahan’s offense
had no problem peppering his top receiver with a ton of red-zone
targets (18 for Jabar Gaffney in 2011, 19 for Pierre Garcon in
2013), which should make Jones’ owners giddy since he is
a superior talent and has a better quarterback at his disposal.
Where things will get interesting is on the ground, where Freeman
and third-round RB Tevin Coleman are both smallish backs. With
Jones a physically dominant receiver and two backs not ideally
suited for moving the pile, does that mean Atlanta gets pass-happy
inside the 20 this year? I think there is a really strong case
to be made for that happening.
Baltimore Ravens
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Joe Flacco
70
34
18
25.7
12
13.5
2
16.7
RB
Justin Forsett
39
43.8
7
17.9
3
4.3
0
0
0
RB
Lorenzo Taliaferro
16
18
4
25
RB
F. Toussaint
2
2.2
0
0
1
1.4
1
0
0
RB
Kyle Juszczyk
6
8.6
3
1
33.3
RB
Bernard Pierce
19
21.3
2
10.5
WR
Torrey Smith
13
18.6
8
6
75
WR
Kamar Aiken
6
8.6
5
3
60
WR
Steve Smith
18
25.7
8
2
25
WR
M. Campanaro
2
2.9
1
1
100
WR
Jacoby Jones
1
1.1
0
0
TE
Owen Daniels
12
17.1
7
4
57.1
TE
Crockett Gillmore
3
4.3
1
1
100
TE
Dennis Pitta
3
4.3
0
0
0
2014 Totals
70
34
18
25.71%
89
99.9
15
16.85%
67
95.8
34
18
52.94%
44.03%
55.29%
55.97%
44.71%
2013 Totals
75
36
17
22.67%
62
100.1
7
11.29%
74
98.5
36
17
47.22%
54.74%
59.40%
45.26%
40.60%
2012 Totals
50
22
11
22.00%
61
98.3
15
24.59%
49
98
22
11
50.00%
45.05%
55.78%
54.95%
44.22%
2011 Totals
55
23
12
21.82%
67
99.9
13
19.40%
54
98.1
23
12
52.17%
45.08%
55.69%
54.92%
44.31%
Overview: It is nearly useless to try to predict any patterns with
Baltimore’s offense simply because new OC Marc Trestman will
be the third different play-caller the team has had to start a season
in as many years. Former OC Gary Kubiak’s influence on the
running game really showed in the red zone, where the Ravens nearly
flip-flopped their run-pass ratio. The other notable Kubiak influences
were Daniels’ 12 red-zone targets and stunningly-low 10 combined
targets between the running backs, with the majority of those going
to Juszczyk. Steve Smith’s 18 targets inside the 20 led the
team last year and is pretty surprising considering: 1) his size
and 2) how efficient Torrey Smith was when he was given the chance.
How it affects 2015: With much more proven skill-position players
and an erratic quarterback, Trestman’s red-zone run-pass
ratios over his two year stint in Chicago were 69-84 (2013) and
44-78 (2014). It would take a philosophical change of epic proportions
for the Ravens to repeat their red-zone numbers from a season
ago and, as such, expect a shift back to the 2013 numbers inside
the 20 with a heavy emphasis placed on getting the ball out to
the running backs in space and utilizing WR Marlon Brown’s
6-5 frame. As a point of reference for the running backs, Matt
Forte had 12 and 13 red-zone targets over the last two years,
respectively. Flacco hasn’t thrown more than 75 passes inside
the 20 in the four years I’ve conducted this analysis, but
it is a fair bet that he will do so this year, although much of
that will depend on how far WR Breshad Perriman is able to expand
his game in his rookie year. The team probably can’t count
on much more out of Gillmore or second-round pick TE Maxx Williams
and obviously can’t bank on Pitta’s return, so there
should be plenty of opportunities for Flacco to make three receivers
and at least one receiver relevant in fantasy.
Buffalo Bills
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Kyle Orton
52
27
11
21.2
3
5.3
1
33.3
QB
EJ Manuel
16
7
4
25
5
8.8
1
20
RB
Fred Jackson
26
45.6
2
7.7
7
10.3
3
1
33.3
RB
Anthony Dixon
13
22.8
1
7.7
2
2.9
2
0
0
RB
C.J. Spiller
3
5.3
0
0
2
2.9
2
1
50
RB
Frank Summers
4
7
1
25
1
1.5
1
0
0
RB
Bryce Brown
3
5.3
0
0
2
2.9
1
0
0
WR
Robert Woods
12
17.6
7
3
42.9
WR
Chris Hogan
9
13.2
5
3
60
WR
Sammy Watkins
10
14.7
4
3
75
WR
Marquise Goodwin
1
1.5
0
0
0
WR
Mike Williams
5
7.4
0
0
0
TE
Scott Chandler
11
16.2
6
2
33.3
TE
Chris Gragg
2
2.9
1
1
100
TE
Lee Smith
1
1.5
1
1
100
TE
MarQueis Gray
1
1.5
1
0
0
2014 Totals
68
34
15
22.06%
57
100.1
6
10.53%
66
97
34
15
44.12%
54.40%
59.02%
45.60%
40.98%
2013 Totals
39
17
8
20.51%
92
99.5
13
14.13%
36
90.1
17
8
47.06%
29.77%
48.88%
70.23%
51.12%
2012 Totals
53
30
14
26.42%
46
100
10
21.74%
52
98.2
30
14
46.67%
53.54%
53.62%
46.46%
46.38%
2011 Totals
79
42
20
25.32%
57
100
8
14.04%
76
96.3
42
20
47.62%
58.09%
60.58%
41.91%
39.42%
Overview: The dramatic shift from the red-zone run-pass ratio from
ex-HC Doug Marrone’s first season (92-39) to his second and
final season (57-68) would usually suggest that a quarterback was
beginning to earn the trust of his play-caller in his second season,
but such was not the case in Buffalo last year. While Orton played
at a much higher level than Manuel did the previous year and Watkins
quickly emerged as the most dangerous threat for the Bills, the
fact of the matter is that Buffalo’s offensive line disappointed.
Perhaps there was no better proof of the decline of the front five
than in Jackson’s RuTD%, which dropped from 20.9 in 2013 to
7.7 last season. Somehow, Woods and Chandler ended up with more
red-zone targets than Watkins, something that I should not have
to type again. All in all, the Bills should feel fortunate that
Marrone decided to opt out of his contract.
How it affects 2015: Perhaps no team did a better job of upgrading
its skill-position talent (outside of quarterback) this offseason
than Buffalo, which added two game-breaking talents in RB LeSean
McCoy and WR Percy Harvin as well as a dependable short-to-intermediate
option in TE Charles Clay. The offensive line should be slightly
improved at the very least, leaving quarterback as the biggest
question. New OC Greg Roman, formerly of the 49ers, will almost
certainly attempt oversee one of the more lopsided red-zone run-pass
ratios in the league to address that very shortcoming. I suspect
McCoy will see a Jackson-like (circa 2013) 43 carries inside the
20 – and quite possibly more – with about another
5-8 red-zone targets. There is some question as to whether or
not Jackson will even make the team this year, further cementing
McCoy’s workhorse role. A healthy Watkins should be in line
for a healthy bump to about 15-18 targets while Clay and Harvin
each draw around 10.
Carolina Panthers
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Cam Newton
38
19
10
26.3
19
29.2
5
26.3
QB
Derek Anderson
15
8
3
20
2
3.1
0
0
RB
Jonathan Stewart
18
27.7
2
11.1
1
1.9
1
1
100
RB
DeAngelo Williams
6
9.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
RB
Darrin Reaves
7
10.8
0
0
1
1.9
0
0
0
RB
Mike Tolbert
9
13.8
0
0
1
1.9
0
0
0
RB
Fozzy Whittaker
2
3.1
1
50
RB
Chris Ogbonnaya
2
2.7
1
50
WR
Kelvin Benjamin
15
28.3
4
3
75
WR
Jerricho Cotchery
6
11.3
5
1
20
WR
Jason Avant
3
5.7
2
1
50
WR
Brenton Bersin
2
3.8
2
1
50
WR
Philly Brown
2
3.8
0
0
0
TE
Greg Olsen
14
26.4
10
5
50
TE
Ed Dickson
3
5.7
2
1
50
TE
Brandon Williams
3
5.7
1
0
0
2014 Totals
53
27
13
24.53%
65
99.6
9
13.85%
51
96.4
27
13
48.15%
44.92%
53.54%
55.08%
46.46%
2013 Totals
54
28
17
31.48%
88
100
12
13.64%
53
98.3
28
17
60.71%
38.03%
49.48%
61.97%
50.52%
2012 Totals
57
20
8
14.04%
75
100
18
24.00%
57
100.2
20
8
40.00%
43.18%
51.47%
56.82%
48.53%
2011 Totals
59
26
13
22.03%
68
98.5
18
26.47%
57
96.6
26
13
50.00%
46.46%
57.98%
53.54%
42.02%
Overview: It’s hard to say a NFC South title run was a wasted
year for the Panthers, but it probably felt that way for Newton’s
fantasy owners as he dealt with a host of injuries as well as a
leaky offensive line in 2014. Somehow, he was a more efficient red-zone
rusher last season, but seven fewer red-zone passing scores and
18 fewer rushing attempts inside the 20 are the numbers that stand
out the most in regards to Carolina’s newest $100-million
man. The volume that had been present in the Panthers’ run
game was also lacking last season thanks to an ailing Newton, although
one has to wonder how Stewart shared so many red-zone touches with
so many other backs. One possible reason: Stewart must be able to
score more than two times in 18 rushing attempts inside the 20.
As for the receivers and tight ends, Benjamin (28.3 percent) and
Olsen (26.4) accounted for over half of the team’s targets
in the red zone, which actually is probably a bit lower than many
expected.
How it affects 2015: Newton is an aging 26-year-old in terms
of the punishment his body has taken through four NFL seasons,
but Carolina GM Dave Gettleman told the Charlotte Observer in
late May that “you don’t hold back a thoroughbred”.
Since Cam is “as healthy as he’s been in a long time”
according the Observer, expect a top 5-10 finish at his position
as the Panthers hitch their wagon to their talented quarterback
as long as they can. The addition of second-round WR Devin Funchess
should steal targets away from Benjamin and Olsen in theory, but
I don’t think that is a given. Perhaps the rookie and Cotchery
share the No. 2 receiver role for the first half of the season
and perhaps Funchess takes advantage of defenses committing too
many resources to Benjamin and Olsen early on, although I think
the two veterans will still be the clear winners in the red-zone
race when the season is over. While I do expect Stewart to lead
the team in red-zone touches, he will probably remain frustrating
to own given his propensity for injury and the fact he will continue
to lose goal-line chances to Newton.
Chicago Bears
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Jay Cutler
75
37
21
28
3
6.8
2
66.7
QB
Jimmy Clausen
3
1
1
33.3
RB
Matt Forte
40
90.9
6
15
13
16.7
8
3
37.5
RB
Ka’Deem Carey
1
2.3
0
0
WR
Alshon Jeffery
21
26.9
9
6
66.7
WR
Brandon Marshall
15
19.2
7
6
85.7
WR
Marquess Wilson
3
3.8
1
1
100
WR
Josh Morgan
3
3.8
2
1
50
WR
Santonio Holmes
1
1.3
0
0
0
TE
Martellus Bennett
21
26.9
11
5
45.5
2014 Totals
78
38
22
28.21%
44
100
8
18.18%
77
98.6
38
22
57.89%
63.93%
63.17%
36.07%
36.83%
2013 Totals
84
44
25
29.76%
69
99.9
10
14.49%
83
98.8
44
25
56.82%
54.90%
58.90%
45.10%
41.10%
2012 Totals
52
27
13
25.00%
60
100
10
16.67%
51
97.9
26
13
50.00%
46.43%
50.79%
53.57%
49.21%
2011 Totals
44
21
10
22.73%
52
99.9
9
17.31%
41
93.3
20
10
50.00%
45.83%
53.37%
54.17%
46.63%
Overview: Former HC Marc Trestman was good for Forte in a number
of ways, in part because Forte was able to prove he was a capable
goal-line back and because Trestman likely extended the 29-year-old’s
career by using him so often as a receiver out of the backfield.
The two-time Pro Bowler handled 90 carries and 25 targets in the
red zone during the Trestman era – numbers which are sure
to decline somewhat under new OC Adam Gase. It is impossible to
get a sense of just how much the Bears’ lopsided run-pass
ratio inside the 20 was a product of their pathetic defense in 2014,
but it sure didn’t help matters. Thanks to Marshall’s
injuries, Jeffery proved he was ready for the responsibility of
being a No. 1 receiver while Bennett tied Jimmy Graham for the most
red-zone targets by a tight end.
How it affects 2015: It doesn’t make a lot of sense to
predict what Gase will do for the Bears based on his recent history
since Cutler isn’t ever going to be mistaken for Peyton
Manning, but it is fair to say that new HC John Fox and Gase will
probably strive for more balance inside the 20 in their first
season in Chicago. Expecting Forte to top 40 red-zone carries
again is probably a bit much to ask though, as Fox has a long
history of using committee backfields whenever he has the opportunity
to do so. No one should expect the Bears to utilize a true committee,
however. It would be an upset if the combination of Carey, fourth-round
rookie Jeremy Langford or ex-Falcon Jacquizz Rodgers see more
than a quarter of the running back snaps and I expect that to
be the case near the goal line as well. Jeffery’s volume
should hold somewhat steady and Eddie Royal could steal more looks
than most are expecting, but it should come as no surprise if
the red-zone pecking order ends up in the following order: Jeffery,
Bennett, Forte and then No. 7 overall pick Kevin White (or Royal).
Unless the defense is historically bad again, it seems unlikely
Cutler will be able to support two fantasy-relevant receivers
and a tight end on a regular basis.
Cincinnati Bengals
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Andy Dalton
51
28
12
23.5
11
13.9
3
27.3
1
1.9
1
1
100
RB
Jeremy Hill
33
41.8
7
21.2
RB
Giovani Bernard
30
38
4
13.3
4
7.7
4
1
25
RB
Rex Burkhead
3
3.8
1
33.3
RB
Cedric Peerman
1
1.3
0
0
WR
A.J. Green
1
1.3
0
0
11
21.2
6
3
50
WR
Mohamed Sanu
1
1
1
100
15
28.8
6
2
33.3
WR
Brandon Tate
2
3.8
1
1
100
WR
Greg Little
2
3.8
1
0
0
WR
D. Sanzenbacher
1
1.9
0
0
0
TE
Jermaine Gresham
13
25
9
5
55.6
TE
Kevin Brock
1
1.9
1
0
0
2014 Totals
52
29
13
25.00%
79
100.1
15
18.99%
50
96
29
13
44.83%
39.69%
50.55%
60.31%
49.45%
2013 Totals
65
40
21
32.31%
57
99.9
13
22.81%
64
98.4
40
21
52.50%
53.28%
54.96%
46.72%
45.04%
2012 Totals
72
38
20
27.78%
70
98.6
11
15.71%
70
100.7
38
20
52.63%
50.70%
55.67%
49.30%
44.33%
2011 Totals
65
34
15
23.08%
70
100
8
11.43%
62
95.3
34
15
44.12%
48.15%
55.17%
51.85%
44.83%
Overview: A number of teams fail to get one runner 30 carries in
the red zone; the Bengals had two last year. While some of that
is a function of Green’s injury-plagued season as well as
the fact that Bernard and Hill pretty much split the feature-back
role, much of the credit for Cincinnati’s impressive distinction
can be credited to the transition from former OC Jay Gruden to power-running
enthusiast Hue Jackson in 2014. (Cincinnati and Cleveland were the
only two teams in the league to run the ball on over 60 percent
of their red-zone plays.) Injuries to WR Marvin Jones and TE Tyler
Eifert meant players like Sanu and Gresham became unexpected primary
red-zone options, but it appears as if Jackson could care less about
throwing to his backs inside the 20 – all four of the Bengals’
red-zone targets to halfbacks went to Bernard.
How it affects 2015: A healthy Green changes everything for the
Bengals, but it is a pretty solid bet Cincinnati will run more
than it will pass inside the 20 for as long as Jackson is in charge
of the offense. Sanu will not lead the team in red-zone targets
again and Gresham is gone, which should free up enough targets
to get Green back over 20, Eifert around 12-15 and Jones around
10-12. It should not come as a surprise if Hill ends up with nearly
50 red-zone carries (stealing half of Bernard’s attempts)
and finishes among the league leaders in the category. Bernard
is one of the better handcuff options in fantasy and will have
those weeks that drive Hill’s owners crazy, but it would
seem Cincinnati wants to put its fortunes in Hill’s hands
on a more regular basis in scoring territory. There is talk of
getting Burkhead more involved in the offense, but owners will
most likely (and rightfully) take a believe-it-when-I-see-it approach.
Cleveland Browns
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Brian Hoyer
40
21
8
20
5
6.9
0
0
QB
Johnny Manziel
1
0
0
0
1
1.4
1
100
QB
Connor Shaw
1
0
0
0
RB
Isaiah Crowell
15
20.8
7
46.7
RB
Ben Tate
23
32.2
4
16
RB
Terrance West
26
36.1
4
15.4
4
9.5
3
1
33.3
RB
Ray Agnew
1
1.4
0
0
1
2.4
0
0
0
WR
Travis Benjamin
5
11.9
3
3
100
WR
Miles Austin
5
11.9
2
2
100
WR
Andrew Hawkins
7
16.7
6
1
16.7
WR
Taylor Gabriel
1
1.4
0
0
9
21.4
5
0
0
WR
Josh Gordon
3
7.1
0
0
0
TE
Jordan Cameron
3
7.1
0
0
0
TE
Jim Dray
3
7.1
2
1
50
TE
Gary Barnidge
1
2.4
0
0
0
2014 Totals
42
21
8
19.05%
72
100.2
16
22.22%
41
97.5
21
8
38.10%
36.84%
51.28%
63.16%
48.72%
2013 Totals
74
32
15
20.27%
52
99.7
4
7.69%
72
97.4
32
15
46.88%
58.73%
66.18%
41.27%
33.82%
2012 Totals
48
21
7
14.58%
50
100
10
20.00%
48
100.3
21
7
33.33%
48.98%
58.84%
51.02%
41.16%
2011 Totals
47
25
10
21.28%
52
99.9
3
5.77%
45
95.8
24
10
41.67%
47.47%
59.47%
52.53%
40.53%
Overview: One year after then-OC Norv Turner relied upon Gordon
to carry an offense that led the NFL in passing attempts, 2014 play-caller
Kyle Shanahan turned to a running game that finished sixth in the
league in rushing attempts. Unsurprisingly, those differences were
reflected in the red-zone play-calling habits of both highly-respected
offensive bosses. The ground attack was exponentially more successful
under Shanahan, who bolted for Atlanta this offseason. Three backs
handled at least 15 carries inside the 20, which is almost as unheard
of as the Bengal-like five targets spread among their four halfbacks.
Gabriel – a 5-8, 167-pound backup receiver – led the
team with nine red-zone targets while 5-10, 175-pound Benjamin –
a fellow backup wideout known more for his abilities as a returner
and deep threat – paced the team with three such scores. Both
facts underscore just how pathetic Cleveland’s options behind
Gordon and Cameron were last year.
How it affects 2015: Given the fact that new OC John DeFilippo
is a former college quarterback and has spent most of his coaching
career tutoring the position, one might be led to believe that
his leaning would be towards the passing game. That’s going
to be a hard sell in Cleveland this year, however, because it
would mean the team would be relying on QB Josh McCown, WRs Dwayne
Bowe and Brian Hartline and TE Rob Housler – all newcomers
– to carry the offense. So unlike predecessors Turner and
Shanahan, trying to predict DeFilippo’s plan of attack will
be a guessing game at best. HC Mike Pettine was supposedly the
driving force behind the weekly merry-go-round at running back
last year and it seems like a good bet he will instruct DeFilippo
to hide the passing game as much as possible when the target is
not third-round RB Duke Johnson, who reportedly was Cleveland’s
best running back in the offseason, or Hawkins, who is probably
the only wideout of the top three that can be realistically expected
to get open on a regular basis. But how much can we expect him
to contribute in the red zone from the slot in scoring territory
with Bowe and Hartline likely penciled in as the primary receivers?
Cleveland’s red-zone ratios should end up mirroring last
year’s, but DeFilippo is going to need a lot of luck and
creativity to get his ground game to match Shanahan’s from
a season ago.
Dallas Cowboys
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD %
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD
%
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Tony Romo
50
32
19
38
QB
Brandon Weeden
6
2
1
16.7
RB
DeMarco Murray
56
94.9
12
21.4
4
7.1
4
0
0
RB
Joseph Randle
2
3.4
1
50
RB
Lance Dunbar
1
1.7
0
0
2
3.6
2
0
0
WR
Dez Bryant
14
25
8
8
100
WR
Terrance Williams
12
21.4
7
5
71.4
WR
Cole Beasley
6
10.7
5
1
20
WR
Dwayne Harris
1
1.8
0
0
0
WR
Devin Street
1
1.8
1
0
0
TE
Gavin Escobar
6
10.7
3
3
100
TE
Jason Witten
8
14.3
4
3
75
TE
James Hanna
1
1.8
0
0
0
2014 Totals
56
34
20
35.71%
59
100
13
22.03%
55
98.2
34
20
58.82%
48.70%
48.37%
51.30%
51.63%
2013 Totals
66
40
22
33.33%
53
100
12
22.64%
65
98.4
40
22
55.00%
55.46%
63.56%
44.54%
36.44%
2012 Totals
75
36
15
20.00%
40
100
7
17.50%
73
97.3
36
15
41.67%
65.22%
64.96%
34.78%
35.04%
2011 Totals
74
43
20
27.03%
60
99.9
4
6.67%
70
94.8
40
20
50.00%
55.22%
59.88%
44.78%
40.12%
Overview: Dallas’ efficiency inside the 20 last year was off
the charts. Few quarterbacks are able to convert more than a quarter
of their red-zone pass attempts into touchdowns and few teams are
able to score on over 20 percent of their red-zone rush attempts,
so it is quite impressive the Cowboys were able to clear both hurdles
rather easily and speaks to the attention Bryant attracts just about
as much as it does to the quality of their highly-regarded offensive
line. It should come as a bit of a shock that Williams finished
with only two fewer targets inside the 20 than Bryant and four more
than Witten. With Romo telling the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in mid-June
how impressive Williams’ offseason has been to this point,
perhaps the Baylor product will evolve into something more than
a deep threat this year. At 6-2 and 208 pounds, he should be able
to hold up if he is asked to shoulder more responsibility.
How it affects 2015: It’s a big deal whenever a team loses
94.9 percent of whatever it did last season, so let’s not
pretend – as the Cowboys have – that Dallas will not
miss a beat in the running game this year without Murray. Yes,
the ‘Boys will still run it better than most and should
be able to get something out of Darren McFadden, but they simply
would not have given the new Eagles’ back 60 of their 115
red-zone opportunities (including his four targets) if Murray
wasn’t clearly the best option. Randle was drafted in part
because owner Jerry Jones felt the Oklahoma State product “mirrored”
Murray, so consider that in addition to whatever news comes out
of training camp and the preseason regarding the depth chart at
running back. It is safe to say that while Randle and McFadden
may come close to totaling Murray’s production together
(red zone or otherwise), neither will come anywhere close to doing
it by himself. Are there any questions about Bryant’s nose
for the end zone? All eight of his red-zone receptions went for
scores. There are two questions I would like to have answered
for the upcoming season: 1) how much will Beasley’s role
expand (and will it include red-zone work)? and 2) do the Cowboys
continue to utilize a lot of two-tight sets, thereby allowing
Escobar to steal more scoring opportunities from Witten?
Denver Broncos
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Peyton Manning
105
69
25
23.8
4
6.3
0
0
QB
Brock Osweiler
1
1
1
100
RB
C.J. Anderson
22
34.9
7
31.8
7
6.6
7
1
14.3
RB
Ronnie Hillman
13
20.6
2
15.4
7
6.6
4
1
25
RB
Juwan Thompson
12
19
3
25
RB
Montee Ball
9
14.3
1
11.1
2
1.9
1
0
0
RB
Jeremy Stewart
3
4.8
0
0
WR
D. Thomas
39
36.8
18
6
33.3
WR
E. Sanders
19
17.9
16
6
37.5
WR
Wes Welker
9
8.5
6
1
16.7
WR
Andre Caldwell
1
0.9
1
0
0
TE
Julius Thomas
15
14.2
13
9
69.2
TE
Virgil Green
1
0.9
1
1
100
TE
Jacob Tamme
6
5.7
3
1
33.3
2014 Totals
106
70
26
24.53%
63
99.9
13
20.63%
106
100
70
26
37.14%
62.72%
57.81%
37.28%
42.19%
2013 Totals
110
79
37
33.64%
71
100
14
19.72%
110
99.9
79
37
46.84%
60.77%
59.42%
39.23%
40.58%
2012 Totals
82
47
27
32.93%
76
100
12
15.79%
80
97.5
46
26
56.52%
51.90%
55.01%
48.10%
44.99%
2011 Totals
45
23
11
24.44%
40
100
6
15.00%
45
100.1
23
11
47.83%
52.94%
53.69%
47.06%
46.31%
Overview: Entering my fourth year
of this study, I had yet to see a player collect more than 29 red-zone
targets (Roddy White, 2011) until Demaryius Thomas posted an astronomical
39 in 2014. (We’ll get to another player that topped 30 later
on.) It’s an absurd number for one player to have and a small
wonder how DT managed only 11 total touchdowns. To put his 18 receptions
inside the 20 last year in further perspective, he would have ranked
tied for third on a targets list of receivers/tight ends we have
covered to this point; his 39 red-zone targets tripled Detroit’s
Calvin Johnson’s total. Sanders was much more efficient, nearly
matching his counterpart in catches inside the 20 while tying him
in TD receptions despite seeing 20 fewer targets. Julius Thomas
was insanely productive and efficient for the second straight year,
improving his ReTD% from 57.1 in 2013 to 69.2 in 2014 as a result
of the attention the receivers attracted. Anderson’s RuTD%
is almost as ridiculous as DT’s target total. Most of the
top backs’ RuTD% tops out somewhere in the low 20s, but Anderson’s
31.8 – obviously aided somewhat by the fact he didn’t
get featured until the second half of the season – is impressive
by any measure. It is also very likely unsustainable.
How it affects 2015: It would be wrong to suggest the Broncos
won’t see insane red-zone numbers again this year, but they
will have to come as a result of efficiency – and not volume
– under new HC Gary Kubiak. In 2012 as Houston’s boss
and offensive play-caller, Kubiak called upon Arian Foster 74
times in the red zone (and he was targeted nine more times as
a receiver). All this is to say that Manning probably won’t
be attempting 100 throws inside the 20 and Anderson probably shouldn’t
be asked to channel 2012 Foster either, so the Broncos should
see the most balance they’ve had in their offense since
Manning arrived three years ago. Green and Owen Daniels should
absorb the majority of the targets left behind by Julius Thomas
while Demaryius Thomas and Sanders will probably lose anywhere
from 15-20 total targets to the rushing attack, most notably Anderson.
Welker’s targets could end up going to the same place or
second-year WR Cody Latimer, who will probably steal a few snaps
here and there from DT and Sanders throughout the season.
Detroit Lions
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Matthew Stafford
76
39
15
19.7
3
4.8
2
66.7
RB
Joique Bell
41
66.1
7
17.1
8
10.5
5
1
20
RB
Theo Riddick
3
4.8
0
0
10
13.2
8
4
50
RB
Reggie Bush
9
14.5
1
11.1
11
14.5
5
0
0
RB
George Winn
2
3.2
0
0
RB
Jed Collins
3
4.8
0
0
1
1.3
1
1
100
WR
Calvin Johnson
13
17.1
4
4
100
WR
Golden Tate
1
1.6
0
0
11
14.5
9
2
22.2
WR
Corey Fuller
3
3.9
1
1
100
WR
Jeremy Ross
3
3.9
1
0
0
WR
Ryan Broyles
1
1.3
1
0
0
TE
Eric Ebron
5
6.6
2
1
50
TE
Joseph Fauria
6
7.9
2
1
50
TE
Brandon Pettigrew
2
2.6
0
0
0
TE
Jordan Thompson
1
1.3
0
0
0
2014 Totals
76
39
15
19.74%
62
99.8
10
16.13%
75
98.6
39
15
38.46%
55.07%
60.40%
44.93%
39.60%
2013 Totals
78
39
21
26.92%
56
96.5
14
25.00%
78
99.9
40
22
55.00%
58.21%
58.76%
41.79%
41.24%
2012 Totals
88
42
16
18.18%
56
98.3
16
28.57%
86
97.7
42
16
38.10%
61.11%
65.43%
38.89%
34.57%
2011 Totals
100
50
29
29.00%
50
100
8
16.00%
98
98
50
29
58.00%
66.67%
66.35%
33.33%
33.65%
Overview: Success and failure in the league tends not to center
around a single player, but it is hard not to notice that Detroit
suffered a lot because it could not give a banged-up Megatron his
usual 20-plus targets inside the red zone. Fortunately, the Lions
had Tate to help them in that regard, but one quick look at Johnson
(four red-zone catches, four scores) versus Tate (nine, two) should
give everyone a pretty clear indication as to how much of a matchup
nightmare Johnson still is and how much he is needed entering his
age-30 season. Perhaps the greatest shift in philosophy –
likely due in part to Johnson’s injury woes – was how
often Detroit threw to its running backs inside the 20. After recording
only 12 such targets in 2013, first-year OC Joe Lombardi brought
his Sean Payton-influenced offensive mind to the Motor City and
peppered his running backs with 30.
How it affects 2015: Lombardi wants Stafford to take more chances
with his throws this season, which is obviously a double-edged
sword for his owners and probably depends just as much on Johnson’s
health as it does on the coaches’ willingness to let Stafford
sling it. Given Bell’s crummy offseason (Achilles, knee)
and the addition of second-round RB Ameer Abdullah, there is almost
no chance he comes anywhere close to the 49 red-zone opportunities
he saw last year. At least half of that work should go to Abdullah,
who is probably the best bet outside of the top three backs drafted
in April (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and T.J. Yeldon) to be featured
at some point this season. Riddick should probably be expected
to match his 2014 numbers inside the 20. In regards to the passing
attack, Johnson should see a healthy bump in opportunities assuming
good health, which should in turn help Tate’s efficiency.
The wild-card to making this offense dynamic is the growth of
Ebron, who boasts rare impressive physical skills at tight end
but struggled with drops as a rookie. The ability for Stafford
to trust him with even 10-12 targets inside the 20 may be enough
to make this offense as explosive as it should be.
Green Bay Packers
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ
Pass %
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Aaron Rodgers
96
51
24
25
10
13
2
20
QB
Matt Flynn
3
3.9
0
0
RB
Eddie Lacy
37
48.1
8
21.6
10
10.4
6
2
33.3
RB
James Starks
14
18.2
2
14.3
1
1
1
0
0
RB
John Kuhn
10
13
1
10
RB
DuJuan Harris
1
1.3
0
0
WR
Randall Cobb
2
2.6
0
0
25
26
16
10
62.5
WR
Jordy Nelson
25
26
12
5
41.7
WR
Davante Adams
11
11.5
6
2
33.3
WR
Jarrett Boykin
2
2.1
0
0
0
TE
Andrew Quarless
13
13.5
5
3
60
TE
Brandon Bostick
2
2.1
2
1
50
TE
Richard Rodgers
6
6.3
3
1
33.3
2014 Totals
96
51
24
25.00%
77
100.1
13
16.88%
95
98.9
51
24
47.06%
55.49%
55.20%
44.51%
44.80%
2013 Totals
85
48
18
21.18%
86
100
14
16.28%
85
97.4
49
18
36.73%
49.71%
55.39%
50.29%
44.61%
2012 Totals
66
41
24
36.36%
41
102.5
7
17.07%
65
98.4
41
24
58.54%
61.68%
56.31%
38.32%
43.69%
2011 Totals
90
57
31
34.44%
59
98.4
10
16.95%
87
96.5
57
31
54.39%
60.40%
60.02%
39.60%
39.98%
Overview: Green Bay was more efficient across the board in the red
zone in 2014, with the biggest difference being the slight increase
in passes and slight decrease in rushes despite a fairly similar
year in terms of number of offensive plays (173 in 2014, 171 in
2013). Lacy saw his targets inside the 20 increase from four to
10 – helping to make up for a 12-carry decrease – while
Adams essentially replaced the red-zone numbers James Jones had
the previous year. Cobb also played a big role in the minor discrepancy
as his numbers shot up from nine targets, four receptions and two
scores in 2013 to 25, 16 and 10 last year (pretty much absorbing
Boykins’ totals from the previous season and scoring at a
much higher rate). Nelson’s red-zone statistics were nearly
identical to 2013. Quarless’ numbers were nearly twice as
good as the previous year’s and somewhat surprising given
how often the Packers’ tight ends have been ignored in fantasy
since the decline of Jermichael Finley.
How it affects 2015: With pretty much the entire band returning
for another run, don’t expect a lot to change in terms of
run-pass ratios or the high volume of plays inside the 20. The
most significant change figures to be how involved Adams will
be going forward since his emergence will most likely take significant
targets away from Quarless and maybe a few from Cobb and/or Nelson.
It should not come as a big surprise if Green Bay has three wideouts
that are all capable of starting in three-receiver fantasy leagues
this year. The degree to which the running game will see more
or less red-zone carries will mostly depend on whether or not
Lacy can begin the season a bit faster than he did in 2014. The
soon-to-be third-year back still saw plenty of volume in the red
zone last year, but his owners undoubtedly would like something
closer to the 49 carries and 11 scores inside the 20 he had as
a rookie.
Houston Texans
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick
38
22
11
28.9
7
12.3
2
28.6
QB
Case Keenum
19
10
2
10.5
1
1.8
0
0
QB
Ryan Mallett
9
2
1
11.1
RB
Arian Foster
1
1
1
100
29
50.9
7
24.1
10
14.9
5
4
80
RB
Alfred Blue
16
28.1
2
12.5
2
3
2
1
50
RB
Ronnie Brown
3
5.4
0
0
1
1.5
0
0
0
RB
Jay Prosch
1
1.5
0
0
0
RB
Jonathan Grimes
1
1.8
0
0
WR
Andre Johnson
26
38.8
12
3
25
WR
DeAndre Hopkins
12
17.9
6
2
33.3
WR
Keshawn Martin
1
1.5
1
0
0
WR
Damaris Johnson
5
7.5
2
0
0
TE
Ryan Griffin
2
3
2
1
50
TE
C.J. Fiedorowicz
1
1.5
1
1
100
TE
Garrett Graham
4
6
1
0
0
2014 Totals
67
35
15
22.39%
57
100.3
11
19.30%
65
97.1
32
12
37.50%
54.03%
46.81%
45.97%
53.19%
2013 Totals
64
29
14
21.88%
52
99.9
6
11.54%
64
100.1
29
14
48.28%
55.17%
60.46%
44.83%
39.54%
2012 Totals
50
28
14
28.00%
92
100
18
19.57%
49
98
28
14
50.00%
35.21%
52.17%
64.79%
47.83%
2011 Totals
69
31
11
15.94%
101
97
16
15.84%
61
88.2
31
11
35.48%
40.59%
47.80%
59.41%
52.20%
Overview: Easily the most stunning pair of numbers we have reviewed
up to this point belongs to Johnson, who scored only three times
on his 26 targets inside the 20. Some of the blame rests on his
shoulders, but given the fact that Hopkins was only 2-of-12, most
of the blame falls on the musical chairs situation at quarterback.
It is also a bit surprising that Houston passed more than it ran
inside the red zone, sporting almost the exact opposite run-pass
ratio it had overall. Foster’s 29 rushing attempts (and 39
total opportunities) seem a bit low at first look, but we need to
remember that he missed three full games and was extremely limited
in two others. Tight end offered virtually nothing with seven total
targets – one more than the less-than-desirable combination
of Levine Toilolo and Bear Pascoe in Atlanta last year.
How it affects 2015: Although they lost franchise icon Johnson,
the Texans solidified their depth chart at receiver by adding
Cecil Shorts, Nate Washington and third-round selection Jaelen
Strong. It’s questionable whether or not the team actually
upgraded at quarterback by trading away Fitzpatrick and signing
Brian Hoyer. Unless UDFA Khari Lee makes a big splash or Fiedorowicz
takes a giant step forward, Houston is probably not going to get
much more out of its tight ends again this year. Thus, the only
real mysteries for the Texans are how much longer can Foster carry
the mail and to what degree Hopkins will dominate the targets.
If Foster is somehow able to play 14-15 full games, he should
be in line for roughly 45 red-zone carries and 10-12 targets.
If not, don’t be surprised if free-agent signee Chris Polk
ends up as the handcuff to own. Even with a less than desirable
quarterback situation, Hopkins erupted for a 76-1,210-6 line as
Johnson’s sidekick last year. “Nuk” has a wonderful
opportunity to top each one of those marks and inherit the 26
red-zone targets Johnson left behind while Shorts/Washington/Strong
combine for about 20. I suspect Hopkins will find a way to score
more than three touchdowns.
Indianapolis
Colts
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Andrew Luck
82
48
23
28
16
23.2
3
18.8
QB
Matt Hasselbeck
7
3
2
28.6
RB
Ahmad Bradshaw
18
26.1
2
11.1
13
14.6
12
6
50
RB
Trent Richardson
24
34.8
3
12.5
5
5.6
3
0
0
RB
Zurlon Tipton
1
1.4
0
0
2
2.2
2
1
50
RB
Dan Herron
9
13
0
0
2
2.2
1
0
0
WR
Hakeem Nicks
14
15.7
5
3
60
WR
T.Y. Hilton
11
12.4
4
2
50
WR
Reggie Wayne
8
9
2
0
0
WR
Donte Moncrief
1
1.4
0
0
3
3.4
2
0
0
TE
Coby Fleener
12
13.5
7
5
71.4
TE
Dwayne Allen
8
9
7
5
71.4
TE
Jack Doyle
8
9
5
2
40
2014 Totals
89
51
25
28.09%
69
99.9
8
11.59%
86
96.6
50
24
48.00%
56.33%
61.43%
43.67%
38.57%
2013 Totals
74
33
14
18.92%
50
100
14
28.00%
72
97.6
33
14
42.42%
59.68%
58.73%
40.32%
41.27%
2012 Totals
70
35
15
21.43%
61
100.1
11
18.03%
68
97
35
15
42.86%
53.44%
58.80%
46.56%
41.20%
2011 Totals
61
25
9
14.75%
47
100
7
14.89%
59
96.8
25
9
36.00%
56.48%
59.83%
43.52%
40.17%
Overview: The Colts’ best options in scoring territory last
season were a run by Luck or a toss out in the flat to Bradshaw;
a team with as many weapons as Indianapolis should not need its
quarterback to finish off drives as often as the defending AFC South
champs did last year or its running back to lead the team in red-zone
scoring catches. Most were quick to suggest the disappointing Richardson
was the reason for Luck’s heavy involvement as a runner, but
a quick glance at each back’s RuTD% suggests Indy’s
running backs probably were not the ones most at fault. Allen’s
injury woes led to something of a featured role for Fleener and,
to a lesser extent, Doyle, while Wayne’s decline resulted
in Nicks pacing the team in red-zone targets. Moncrief, who should
have been the obvious choice as the team’s top receiver inside
the 20, somehow saw a measly three targets.
How it affects 2015: The arrival of RB Frank Gore and WR Andre
Johnson should address major weaknesses, but the former’s
job figures to be much more difficult than the latter’s.
Gore will consistently see fewer defenders in the box than he
probably ever has, but the Colts’ perplexing indifference
when it comes to addressing the offensive line may ultimately
keep the ex-49er from having a potentially dominant season. Gore
should be able to pick up Indy’s dreadful 11.59 RuTD%, for
whatever that is worth. At worst, Johnson will probably take the
combined targets of Nicks (now in Tennessee) and Wayne (a free
agent) and handily lead the team in red-zone targets. A healthy
Allen is a more complete tight end than Fleener or Doyle, so it
should not come as a surprise if Allen once again becomes Luck’s
most dependable weapon inside the 20. Moncrief’s true breakout
will probably be stunted by the arrival of first-round WR Phillip
Dorsett and ex-CFLer Duron Carter, but the Colts would be foolish
to not expand his role in the red zone this year.
Jacksonville
Jaguars
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD %
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD
%
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Blake Bortles
38
13
5
13.2
4
12.1
0
0
QB
Chad Henne
4
2
0
0
1
3
0
0
RB
Denard Robinson
12
36.4
3
25
RB
Toby Gerhart
9
27.3
2
22.2
2
4.7
2
0
0
RB
Storm Johnson
6
18.2
2
33.3
RB
Will Ta’ufo’ou
1
2.3
0
0
0
RB
Jordan Todman
1
3
0
0
2
4.7
1
0
0
WR
Allen Hurns
8
18.6
4
2
50
WR
Cecil Shorts
1
1
0
0
14
32.6
4
1
25
WR
Marqise Lee
6
14
0
0
0
WR
Allen Robinson
5
11.6
2
0
0
TE
Marcedes Lewis
2
4.7
1
1
100
TE
Clay Harbor
2
4.7
1
0
0
TE
Nic Jacobs
1
2.3
1
1
100
2014 Totals
43
16
5
11.63%
33
100
7
21.21%
43
100.2
16
5
31.25%
56.58%
60.74%
43.42%
39.26%
2013 Totals
76
30
11
14.47%
40
100
7
17.50%
74
97.1
29
11
37.93%
65.52%
61.03%
34.48%
38.97%
2012 Totals
69
34
13
18.84%
35
100
3
8.57%
65
99.8
33
12
36.36%
66.35%
62.08%
33.65%
37.62%
2011 Totals
50
22
9
18.00%
55
99.9
8
14.55%
50
100
22
9
40.91%
47.62%
51.20%
52.38%
48.80%
Overview: Consider for a second just how awful an offense must be
to run 76 total red-zone plays over the course of a 16-game season.
Jacksonville’s offense was nothing to brag about in any of
the first three years I did this study either, yet still managed
at least 104 red-zone snaps in each season. If there was a hint
of a bright spot for the Jaguars in 2014, it was probably the early
emergence of Allen Robinson before a broken foot sidelined him for
the season after Week 10. A secondary bright spot was Denard Robinson,
who eventually proved to be something more than a change-of-pace
back even if the team wants to keep him in that role.
How it affects 2015: Shorts left for Houston, taking with him
32.6 percent of the red-zone targets. Robinson is the overwhelming
favorite to step up – even though he won’t spend nearly
as much time in the slot as Shorts did – and dominate targets
for Jacksonville inside the 20 in a way we haven’t seen
in years. When defenses become too preoccupied with him, Bortles
will almost certain bombard ex-Bronco TE Julius Thomas with red-zone
chances. Lee and Hurns will probably vie for third place in that
race, although I’m not exactly sure it will matter much
in a run-heavy offense led by Bortles. In short, the Jaguars should
have no problem improving on their awful 11.63 PaTD% - worst in
the league last year – and be much more entertaining to
watch at the very least. Second-round RB T.J. Yeldon was a highly
efficient goal-line runner at Alabama (82.3 percent conversion
rate from the 2-yard line or closer over the last two years) and
could easily emerge as the viable three-down threat in the backfield
the team hasn’t had since Maurice Jones-Drew was in his
prime.
Kansas City Chiefs
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Alex Smith
57
34
13
22.8
3
5.2
1
33.3
QB
Chase Daniel
8
4
0
0
0
0
0
RB
Jamaal Charles
26
44.8
6
23.1
13
19.7
7
4
57.1
RB
Knile Davis
23
39.7
5
21.7
5
7.6
2
0
0
RB
D. Thomas
2
3.4
1
50
6
9.1
5
0
0
RB
Cyrus Gray
3
5.2
1
33.3
RB
Anthony Sherman
1
1.7
0
0
2
3
2
1
50
RB
Joe McKnight
2
3
2
2
100
WR
Dwayne Bowe
8
12.1
5
0
0
WR
Junior Hemingway
1
1.5
0
0
0
WR
Albert Wilson
2
3
0
0
0
WR
Jason Avant
1
1.5
0
0
0
WR
Frankie Hammond
2
3
0
0
0
WR
Donnie Avery
4
6.1
2
0
0
WR
A.J. Jenkins
2
3
2
0
0
TE
Travis Kelce
11
16.7
8
3
37.5
TE
Anthony Fasano
4
6.1
4
3
75
2014 Totals
65
38
13
20.00%
58
100
14
24.14%
63
95.4
39
13
33.33%
52.85%
54.00%
47.15%
46.00%
2013 Totals
76
47
17
22.37%
72
100.1
16
22.22%
75
98.5
47
17
36.17%
51.35%
55.26%
48.65%
44.74%
2012 Totals
33
13
5
15.15%
50
100
5
10.00%
32
96.9
13
5
38.46%
39.76%
48.72%
60.24%
51.28%
2011 Totals
46
21
8
17.39%
50
98.2
3
6.00%
45
97.9
20
8
40.00%
47.92%
52.30%
52.08%
47.70%
Overview: After posting a rather hefty 42 carries and 17 targets
in the red zone in HC Andy Reid’s first year in charge, Charles
dealt with sub-par line play and injuries in 2014 while Davis took
on a significantly heavier load. The best part of the Chiefs’
season was most likely the emergence of Kelce, who pretty much copied
Fasano’s numbers inside the 20 from 2013. After that, a near
50:50 run-pass ratio was about the only other positive characteristic
about Kansas City’s red-zone distribution. None of the receivers
found the end zone, which is equal parts quirky and reflective of
the quality of the wideouts Smith had at his disposal. It is also
a testament to how risk-averse Smith is.
How it affects 2015: The Chiefs aggressively pursued and landed
former Reid protégé WR Jeremy Maclin, who should
put an end to their embarrassing 19-game streak of a receiver
not scoring a touchdown sometime in September. What isn’t
quite as clear is whether the addition of Maclin will encourage
Smith to take more shots downfield or whether he will end up being
an expensive decoy for Kelce. Regardless, the combination of Kelce
and Maclin plus the pass-catching prowess of Charles should allow
Kansas City to pass slightly more than it will run all over the
field, although I have my doubts that slight increase will result
in Smith being a much better option in fantasy. The line added
ex-Saints Pro Bowler LG Ben Grubbs, but lost C Rodney Hudson,
making it fair to wonder if the line play will be any better in
2015. The team appears high on new C Eric Kush, but 73 career
snaps – including none in 2014 – doesn’t inspire
a ton of confidence. With that said, Charles is one of the better
bets to return to the 40-plus carry, 15-plus target numbers inside
the 20 that made him fantasy’s top back two seasons ago.
Miami Dolphins
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD
%
RuAtt
RuAtt
%
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar
%
Rec
ReTD
ReTD
%
RZ
Pass %
Pass
%
RZ
Run %
Run
%
QB
Ryan Tannehill
89
56
24
27
7
8
1
14.3
QB
Matt Moore
2
2.3
0
0
RB
Lamar Miller
44
50
7
15.9
8
9
6
1
16.7
RB
Daniel Thomas
10
11.4
2
20
2
2.2
2
0
0
RB
Damien Williams
11
12.5
0
0
6
6.7
4
1
25
RB
Knowshon Moreno
11
12.5
1
9.1
1
1.1
1
0
0
RB
Orleans Darkwa
2
2.3
0
33.3
WR
Mike Wallace
1
1.1
0
0
19
21.3
13
9
69.2
WR
Jarvis Landry
13
14.6
11
5
45.5
WR
Brian Hartline
7
7.9
5
2
40
WR
Brandon Gibson
6
6.7
2
1
50
WR
Rishard Matthews
3
3.4
1
1
100
TE
Charles Clay
19
21.3
8
2
25
TE
Dion Sims
3
3.4
3
2
66.7
TE
Gator Hoskins
1
1.8
0
0
0
2014 Totals
89
56
24
26.97%
88
100.1
11
12.50%
88
99.4
56
24
42.86%
50.28%
59.86%
49.72%
40.14%
2013 Totals
64
39
18
28.13%
51
100.1
8
15.69%
63
98.5
39
18
46.15%
55.65%
62.99%
44.35%
37.01%
2012 Totals
48
24
9
18.75%
54
100.1
12
22.22%
48
97.2
24
9
37.50%
47.06%
53.39%
52.94%
46.61%
2011 Totals
66
31
16
24.24%
65
99.8
9
13.85%
66
99.9
31
16
51.61%
50.38%
52.63%
49.62%
47.37%
Overview: Despite the fact Landry was the only real impact player
the team added to its skill-position corps following the conclusion
of the 2013 season, Miami executed 62 more red-zone plays in first-year
OC Bill Lazor’s up-tempo spread attack – a scheme more
suited for the running ability of Tannehill and the rest of its
personnel. Thomas’ role was slashed substantially and, once
Moreno was lost for the season in Week 6, it cleared the way for
an inspired Miller to finish among the league leaders in red-zone
opportunities. Wallace was second behind only Randall Cobb for red-zone
touchdowns by a receiver, which is quite impressive considering
the duo often did not appear to be on the same page and also because
Wallace has often been labeled as a one-trick pony. Perhaps the
most impressive part of Miami’s stats inside the 20 was its
balance. Four running backs and three receivers had at least 10
red-zone opportunities while four others players had at least six
targets.
How it affects 2015: Wallace and Clay are gone among the key
contributors from last year, but it is hard not to like what the
Dolphins did in the offseason, adding first-round WR DeVante Parker,
trading for WR Kenny Stills and signing TE Jordan Cameron. Landry
figures to be a primary option from the get-go this time around
and Parker should end up being the most complete receiver at some
point for this team, although his offseason foot surgery could
delay him getting to that point as a rookie. Cameron is a superior
talent to Clay, but his concussion history is such that the Dolphins
would be wise not to depend too much on him. Fifth-rounder RB
Jay Ajayi is a much more viable threat to Miller’s workload
than Thomas ever should have been (Miller’s owners in 2013
know exactly what I’m talking about), although it is very
possible the rookie merely picks up for Miller when he reaches
Miami’s artificial ceiling for him of about 18 carries or
20 touches. Overall, it seems unlikely the Dolphins will be able
to rattle off another 177 red-zone plays in what will be a defensive-minded
AFC East, but they should be able to repeat the balance that was
so prominent in 2014.
Minnesota Vikings
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Teddy Bridgewater
25
18
8
32
8
15.7
1
12.5
QB
Matt Cassel
7
3
2
28.6
1
2
0
0
QB
Christian Ponder
9
4
0
0
2
3.9
1
50
RB
Matt Asiata
30
58.8
9
30
5
12.2
4
0
0
RB
Jerick McKinnon
7
13.7
0
0
1
2.4
1
0
0
RB
Ben Tate
2
3.9
0
0
RB
Jerome Felton
1
2.4
0
0
RB
Adrian Peterson
1
2
0
0
1
2.4
1
0
0
RB
Joe Banyard
2
4.9
2
0
0
WR
Greg Jennings
12
29.3
8
5
62.5
WR
Jarius Wright
5
12.2
2
1
50
WR
C. Patterson
3
7.3
1
1
100
WR
Charles Johnson
1
2.4
0
0
0
WR
Adam Thielen
1
2.4
1
0
0
TE
Kyle Rudolph
3
7.3
3
2
66.7
TE
Rhett Ellison
1
2.4
1
1
100
TE
Chase Ford
4
9.8
1
0
0
2014 Totals
41
25
10
24.39%
51
100
11
21.57%
40
97.4
25
10
40.00%
44.57%
55.59%
55.43%
44.41%
2013 Totals
63
27
8
12.70%
60
100
17
28.33%
61
96.9
27
8
29.63%
51.22%
56.35%
48.78%
43.65%
2012 Totals
69
41
17
24.64%
74
100
11
14.86%
68
98.2
41
17
41.75%
48.25%
49.85%
51.75%
50.15%
2011 Totals
59
38
14
23.73%
68
100
16
23.53%
58
98.5
38
14
36.84%
46.46%
55.51%
53.54%
44.49%
Overview: It’s a credit to the coaching ability of HC Mike
Zimmer and OC Norv Turner that Minnesota was able to remain competitive
following the loss of Peterson and lead the Vikings to a 7-9 finish
without their most important offensive piece. As a result of their
all-world running back missing all but one game last year, there
is not a lot reliable information to discern from last season, other
than maybe Asiata’s 35 red-zone opportunities will serve as
the floor for Peterson. Johnson emerged too late into the season
for him to make a noticeable dent in this study, although one red-zone
target is stunningly low for a 6-2, 215-pound receiver that became
a key cog in the offense in mid-November and didn’t really
have to fight Peterson or Rudolph for scoring chances.
How it affects 2015: The Vikings managed 92 red-zone plays last
year, 31 fewer than in any year since I began doing this analysis
following the 2011 season. The return of Peterson likely means
that number will probably near the 131-play average the team posted
over the previous three years; Rudolph is the odds-on favorite
to kick that number even higher (and increase the passing game’s
efficiency inside the 20) if he can stay healthy. Jennings is
gone, WR Mike Wallace was acquired via trade and Johnson is 10
pounds stronger, meaning Minnesota should have a couple of potential
game-breakers at receiver to complement Peterson. Wallace was
incredibly efficient as a red-zone receiver in Miami last year,
so one has to wonder if Turner will give him the chance to maintain
that distinction over the bigger Johnson as the second-best passing-game
option in the red zone. Rudolph is only two years removed from
15 targets and eight scores inside the 20 with Ponder as his quarterback,
so avoiding injury is critical for him this year as the Vikings
look to build upon the strong second-half play of Bridgewater
and take advantage of the fact they have more weapons at their
disposal this year than they’ve had since Brett Favre was
under center.
New England Patriots
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Tom Brady
74
44
25
33.8
11
12.8
0
0
QB
Jimmy Garoppolo
1
1
1
100
1
1.2
0
0
RB
LeGarrette Blount
11
12.9
3
27.3
RB
Jonas Gray
25
29.4
5
20
RB
Shane Vereen
14
16.5
2
14.3
11
14.7
5
2
40
RB
Stevan Ridley
13
15.3
2
15.4
RB
Brandon Bolden
7
8.2
1
14.3
RB
James White
1
1.2
0
0
RB
James Develin
2
2.4
0
0
2
2.7
1
0
0
WR
Brandon LaFell
13
17.3
6
5
83.3
WR
Julian Edelman
20
26.7
12
3
25
WR
Danny Amendola
3
4
2
1
50
WR
Brian Tyms
1
1.3
1
0
0
WR
K. Thompkins
1
1.3
1
0
0
TE
Rob Gronkowski
16
21.3
11
9
81.8
TE
Timothy Wright
7
9.3
6
6
100
2014 Totals
75
45
26
34.67%
85
99.9
13
15.29%
74
98.6
45
26
57.78%
46.88%
58.17%
53.13%
41.83%
2013 Totals
83
42
20
24.10%
86
99.9
16
18.60%
80
96.2
42
20
47.62%
49.11%
57.19%
50.89%
42.81%
2012 Totals
81
49
24
29.63%
115
100
25
21.74%
80
98.7
49
24
48.98%
41.33%
55.07%
58.67%
44.93%
2011 Totals
99
57
29
29.29%
94
99
16
17.02%
98
99
57
29
50.88%
51.30%
59.52%
48.70%
40.48%
Overview: One of the many reasons the Patriots have been so successful
during the Bill Belichick-Brady era is the incredible number of
plays they execute inside the opposing 20-yard-line. Contrary to
popular belief, they run more often than they pass in that area,
although it doesn’t matter much when a team routinely exceeds
160 red-zone plays – last year’s total of 160 was the
Patriots’ lowest mark in my four years of doing the Red Zone
Report. Looking solely at the consistent volume New England has
enjoyed in scoring territory in that time, it is hard not to imagine
what one player could do if the team could ever settle on a power
back over the course of an entire season. Perhaps the most surprising
statistic in the passing game was Edelman finishing with more targets
than Gronkowski, although that can be explained away pretty easily:
most of Edelman’s red-zone work was moving the chains while
Gronkowski’s chances inside the 20 usually involved embarrassing
defenders on the cusp of the end zone or in it.
How it affects 2015: Gronkowski is the unquestioned No. 1 option
in the red zone and Edelman is the primary chain-mover; that much
is clear. Beyond that, it gets a bit dicey. Blount will start
out the season as the primary power back, but what assurances
do we have that he will hold off Gray all year? Ridley is now
a Jet, removing one of the obstacles for both players, but would
anyone really be surprised if someone like Tyler Gaffney ended
up being fantasy-relevant at some point? Vereen signed with the
Giants, leaving behind his 25 red-zone opportunities to likely
either White or Travaris Cadet. Can we assume either player will
secure a similar red-zone presence? There’s another great
question. Is LaFell here to stay or is this the year Aaron Dobson,
who has been riddled with injuries since about the midpoint of
his rookie season in 2013, fulfills the potential the team saw
in him when it invested a second-round pick? Wright’s near-perfect
marks inside the 20 weren’t good enough to keep him on the
roster, so does that mean ex-Bill Scott Chandler maintains the
same kind of low-end TE2 status he enjoyed for most of his time
in Buffalo?
New Orleans Saints
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ
Pass %
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Drew Brees
83
54
25
30.1
6
8.2
1
16.7
RB
Mark Ingram
43
58.9
8
18.6
5
6
5
0
0
RB
Khiry Robinson
11
15.1
3
27.3
1
1.2
1
0
0
RB
Pierre Thomas
6
8.2
1
16.7
3
3.6
3
1
33.3
RB
Travaris Cadet
1
1.4
0
0
5
6
3
1
33.3
RB
Erik Lorig
2
2.7
0
0
4
4.8
3
1
33.3
RB
Austin Johnson
1
1.4
0
0
2
2.4
2
1
50
WR
Marques Colston
13
15.7
6
3
50
WR
Brandin Cooks
3
4.1
1
33.3
6
7.2
4
1
25
WR
Kenny Stills
5
6
3
1
33.3
WR
Nick Toon
3
3.6
3
1
33.3
WR
Robert Meachem
2
2.4
1
0
0
TE
Jimmy Graham
21
25.3
12
9
75
TE
Josh Hill
6
7.2
5
4
80
TE
Benjamin Watson
5
6
3
2
66.7
2014 Totals
83
54
25
30.12%
73
100
14
19.18%
81
97.4
54
25
46.30%
53.21%
61.88%
46.79%
38.12%
2013 Totals
85
52
22
25.88%
59
100
10
16.95%
80
94.3
52
22
42.31%
59.03%
62.48%
40.97%
37.52%
2012 Totals
96
60
31
32.29%
44
100
7
15.91%
94
97.9
60
31
51.67%
68.57%
64.46%
31.43%
35.54%
2011 Totals
96
62
30
31.25%
70
100
13
18.57%
94
97.9
62
30
48.39%
57.83%
61.41%
42.17%
38.59%
Overview: The process of becoming more balanced officially began
last season, when Ingram nearly had as many red-zone carries himself
(43) as the entire Saints’ team did in 2012 (44). Thomas battled
injuries, but became a virtual afterthought one season after recording
a team-high 23 carries and 33 red-zone opportunities overall. Colston’s
targets inside the 20 fell for the third straight season, although
he was still Brees’ top option among New Orleans receivers
by a wide margin. Graham remained a target monster inside the red
zone, but the biggest difference from previous Saints’ teams
was the inclusion of notable use of Hill and Watson – likely
a product of trading away Darren Sproles last offseason.
How it affects 2015: How exactly is New Orleans going to distribute
Graham’s 21 red-zone targets from a season ago? Stills,
Cadet and Thomas are all gone, Colston is in decline and Cooks
is not ideally suited for work near the goal line. After entertaining
the thought of bringing back Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller should
become the next satellite back to make it big in the Superdome,
following in the footsteps of Bush and Sproles. It is a role in
which Sproles saw an average of 20 red-zone targets in 2011 and
2012. Like Bush, Spiller hasn’t been the picture of durability,
although HC Sean Payton will not go into this season expecting
him to carry the load as was often the case in Buffalo. Perhaps
for the first time since the days of Deuce McAllister, the Saints
believe they have a workhorse they can pound in between the tackles
in Ingram, who really didn’t stake his claim to the lead-back
throne until midway through last season. With that said, the former
Heisman Trophy winner has lasted a full season just once in his
four-year career, meaning Robinson better be ready for some spot
duty. Although there has been a bit of water thrown onto the fire
that was burning for Hill this spring, I don’t think it
is realistic to expect Watson to lead the position in fantasy
production as some have suggested. Watson will turn 35 in December
and frankly cannot be counted upon to handle a significant increase
in snaps from the 578 he saw in 2014.
New York Giants
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ
Pass %
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Eli Manning
98
50
24
24.5
5
6.7
1
20
RB
Andre Williams
38
50.7
6
15.8
5
5.1
2
0
0
RB
Rashad Jennings
24
32
4
16.7
4
4.1
2
0
0
RB
Henry Hynoski
3
4
0
0
RB
Peyton Hillis
2
2.7
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
RB
Orleans Darkwa
1
1.3
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
P
Steve Weatherford
1
1.3
0
0
WR
Odell Beckham
1
1.3
0
0
25
25.5
16
8
50
WR
Rueben Randle
19
19.4
8
3
37.5
WR
Preston Parker
8
8.2
2
2
100
WR
Corey Washington
4
4.1
3
1
33.3
WR
Victor Cruz
4
4.1
2
0
0
WR
Kevin Ogletree
1
1
0
0
0
TE
Larry Donnell
20
20.4
11
6
54.5
TE
Daniel Fells
5
5.1
3
3
100
TE
Adrien Robinson
1
1
1
1
100
2014 Totals
98
50
24
24.49%
75
100
12
16.00%
98
100
50
24
48.00%
56.65%
57.48%
43.35%
42.52%
2013 Totals
56
25
7
12.50%
44
99.9
9
20.45%
55
98.1
25
7
28.00%
56.00%
59.81%
44.00%
40.19%
2012 Totals
83
37
18
21.69%
95
100.1
16
16.84%
82
98.8
37
18
48.65%
46.63%
56.86%
53.37%
43.14%
2011 Totals
71
36
15
21.13%
61
99.9
17
27.87%
71
100
36
15
41.67%
53.79%
60.02%
46.21%
39.98%
Overview: Just how “elite” was Beckham last year? He
missed the first four weeks of the season with a hamstring and had
a total of 10 catches (including six targets inside the 20) midway
through the season, only to finish with 91 and 25, respectively.
Those numbers are eye-opening when compared to Randle’s, especially
considering he scored only three times on his 19 red-zone targets.
(For comparison’s sake, Mike Wallace scored nine TDs on the
same number of targets.). Donnell’s 20 red-zone looks seem
like a fluke if only because Cruz missed 10 games and Randle was
so inefficient. Jennings wasn’t the same after his Week 5
injury, leaving the bulk of the work to Williams, who ended up being
more of a drain on the running game than the Giants could have imagined.
How it affects 2015: It is actually quite likely that Beckham
and Randle end up with about the same level of activity inside
the 20 as they had last year. Beyond the two of them, I expect
a much different looking distribution of red-zone targets. Whether
it is because Jennings can’t stay healthy again or the team
wants to significantly reduce Williams’ touches, former
Patriot RB Shane Vereen is going to play a key role for this offense
all over the field. (It would not surprise me if he finished with
more targets than Donnell.) HC Tom Coughlin strives for offensive
balance as much as possible, so owners shouldn’t expect
New York to get much more pass-happy inside the 20 than it was
in 2014 – most of which was likely a function of trailing
so often early in the season. The Giants are planning to play
with even more tempo than last year, which means they could easily
see five players (most likely Beckham, Cruz, Randle, Donnell and
Vereen) reach double figures in red-zone targets.
New York Jets
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD %
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Geno Smith
48
26
8
16.7
9
13
1
11.1
1
1.5
0
0
QB
Michael Vick
19
9
2
10.5
6
8.7
0
0
RB
Chris Ivory
33
47.9
5
15.2
7
10.3
5
1
20
RB
Bilal Powell
6
8.7
1
16.7
3
4.4
3
0
0
RB
Chris Johnson
10
14.5
0
0
3
4.4
2
1
50
RB
John Conner
1
1.4
0
0
1
1.5
1
1
100
WR
Eric Decker
14
20.6
9
3
33.3
WR
Jeremy Kerley
1
0
0
0
1
1.4
0
0
9
13.2
4
1
25
WR
Percy Harvin
2
2.9
0
0
5
7.4
1
0
0
WR
Greg Salas
1
1.4
1
100
1
1.5
0
0
0
WR
David Nelson
3
4.4
0
0
0
WR
T.J. Graham
1
1.5
1
0
0
WR
Chris Owusu
1
1.5
1
1
100
TE
Jace Amaro
9
13.2
5
2
40
TE
Zach Sudfeld
1
1.5
0
0
0
TE
Jeff Cumberland
9
13.2
4
1
25
2014 Totals
68
35
10
14.71%
69
99.9
8
11.59%
68
100.1
36
11
30.56%
49.64%
49.55%
50.36%
50.45%
2013 Totals
49
21
8
16.33%
50
92.6
10
20.00%
49
99.8
21
8
38.10%
49.49%
49.33%
50.51%
50.67%
2012 Totals
48
20
11
22.92%
89
99.9
12
13.48%
49
102.2
20
12
19.57%
35.04%
49.95%
64.96%
50.05%
2011 Totals
79
42
21
26.58%
67
100
13
19.40%
79
101.4
42
21
50.00%
54.11%
56.99%
45.89%
43.01%
Overview: Proving it’s not all about how many plays a team
runs, the Jets tallied 137 plays inside the 20 last year –
22 more than the Cowboys. Few teams fared worse than New York in
scoring territory, which is what will happen when a team puts a
spread quarterback scared of losing his job into a West Coast offense
and continuously changes the parts around him. The Jets seemed to
commit more often to Ivory all over the field, but especially in
the red zone, where he handled 40 of the backfield’s 64 opportunities.
Decker predictably led the way for the receivers and performed about
as well as anyone could have expected despite the chaos. (Just as
a point of reference to show the difference between his final year
in Denver and last year, Decker had 13 catches and seven scores
on 23 red-zone targets in 2013 as the Broncos’ second receiver.
Last year, he went 9-14-3 as the Jets’ No. 1.
How it affects 2015: Out with former OC Marty Mornhinweg, in
with creative new OC Chan Gailey – a play-caller that has
utilized the spread with great success in the NFL but hasn’t
lost sight of how important the running game is to an offense’s
success. Brandon Marshall entered the picture following his trade
from the Bears and immediately gives this offense a viable WR1
that will command the defense’s attention in the red zone
as well as make Decker’s life easier. Marshall’s presence
alone should get New York’s PaTD% somewhere in the neighborhood
of the 22.92 mark it enjoyed in 2012, which would probably be
good enough to make Marshall and Decker weekly starters in three-receiver
leagues – as they should be. Gailey’s arrival should
benefit Amaro as well since he was miscast as a West Coast tight
end after working primarily out of the slot in college. Stevan
Ridley and Zac Stacy join a backfield that had no problem letting
Johnson walk, although it is difficult to see an important role
in this offense for more than one of them. Ivory probably shouldn’t
be expected to command so many red-zone chances this season, but
he should remain the leader by a fairly wide margin.
Oakland Raiders
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Derek Carr
44
28
18
40.9
2
6.1
0
0
RB
Darren McFadden
16
48.5
2
12.5
3
6.8
1
0
0
RB
Jamize Olawale
2
4.5
2
2
100
RB
Latavius Murray
10
30.3
1
10
1
2.3
1
0
0
RB
MJ-Drew
2
6.1
0
0
1
2.3
1
0
0
RB
Marcel Reece
2
6.1
0
0
4
9.1
3
1
33.3
WR
James Jones
10
22.7
7
5
71.4
WR
Andre Holmes
4
9.1
3
2
66.7
WR
Rod Streater
1
2.3
1
1
100
WR
Brice Butler
4
9.1
1
1
100
WR
Denarius Moore
1
3
0
0
3
6.8
0
0
0
WR
K. Thompkins
1
2.3
0
0
0
TE
Mychal Rivera
7
15.9
6
4
66.7
TE
Brian Leonhardt
1
2.3
1
1
100
2014 Totals
44
28
18
40.91%
33
100.1
3
9.09%
42
95.5
27
17
62.96%
57.14%
65.11%
42.86%
34.89%
2013 Totals
56
27
11
19.64%
57
100
13
22.81%
54
100.1
26
11
42.31%
49.56%
54.29%
50.44%
45.71%
2012 Totals
72
38
15
20.83%
46
99.9
3
6.52%
71
98.8
38
15
39.47%
61.02%
62.59%
38.98%
37.41%
2011 Totals
44
23
10
22.73%
69
99.9
14
20.29%
43
97.8
23
10
43.48%
38.94%
54.09%
61.06%
45.91%
Overview: By any measure, 33 red-zone rushing attempts, three rushing
touchdowns and a 9.09 conversion percentage are pathetic marks for
an entire season. They are also clear indicators that the offensive
line was weak, Jones-Drew was ready to retire, McFadden was ready
for a change and Murray was parked on the sideline too long. The
40.91 PaTD% is incredible by comparison, but the low number of attempts
substantiates how much trouble Oakland had getting inside the opponents’
20. The few time the Raiders did march into the red zone, it was
often in garbage time and against a defense more focused on using
clock than keeping Oakland off the scoreboard.
How it affects 2015: Jones led the team in red-zone activity
and was promptly released one season after signing a three-year
contract, which alone was a good enough reason to select Alabama
WR Amari Cooper with the No. 4 overall pick. Rivera was second
on the team with seven targets inside the 20 and is unlikely to
keep his starting job through midseason after the team used a
third-round pick to pick Miami TE Clive Walford. Both rookies
can do something their veteran counterparts have struggled to
do throughout their careers – separate from coverage. As
a result, they should see more than the 17 red-zone targets that
Jones and Rivera combined for last year simply because they should
help the Raiders get into scoring territory more often. Oakland
stole C Rodney Hudson from the rival Chiefs and is starting to
build a fairly promising front five – one that should be
able to execute new HC Jack Del Rio’s vision of a physical
running team. The talent upgrades everywhere should lead to more
opportunities for the running game and Murray in particular. Roy
Helu Jr. or Trent Richardson could end up being a bit of drain
on his overall value, but the Raiders seem to want Murray to win
the early-down and red-zone jobs (and rightfully so).
Philadelphia
Eagles
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Mark Sanchez
42
21
10
23.8
5
5.7
1
20
QB
Nick Foles
35
15
5
14.3
RB
LeSean McCoy
56
64.4
4
7.1
5
6.5
4
0
0
RB
Darren Sproles
9
10.3
5
55.6
6
7.8
3
0
0
RB
Chris Polk
17
19.5
4
23.5
1
1.3
0
0
0
WR
Jordan Matthews
15
19.5
10
6
60
WR
Riley Cooper
14
18.2
5
3
60
WR
Jeremy Maclin
12
15.6
6
3
50
WR
Josh Huff
1
1.3
1
0
0
WR
Brad Smith
1
1.3
0
0
0
TE
Zach Ertz
11
14.3
3
1
33.3
TE
James Casey
1
1.3
1
1
100
TE
Brent Celek
9
11.7
3
1
33.3
2014 Totals
77
36
15
19.48%
87
99.9
14
16.09%
76
98.8
36
15
41.67%
46.95%
56.71%
53.05%
43.29%
2013 Totals
60
33
17
28.33%
74
100.2
13
17.57%
55
91.7
33
17
51.52%
44.78%
50.40%
55.22%
49.60%
2012 Totals
71
31
13
18.31%
54
100.1
9
16.67%
64
90.1
31
13
41.94%
56.80%
59.90%
43.20%
40.10%
2011 Totals
72
37
17
23.61%
85
100
17
20.00%
68
94.6
37
17
45.95%
45.86%
56.56%
54.14%
43.44%
Overview: Foles sported an unsustainable 43.2 PaTD% in 2013, although
it is probably fair to say HC Chip Kelly had something better than
14.3 in mind as an encore. Most of Philadelphia’s offensive
woes – which is quite the statement for a team that executed
164 red-zone plays – were the result of an offensive line
that was in disarray due to injuries for most of the season. McCoy’s
RuTD% of 7.1 is unforgiveable regardless of the state of the offensive
line and probably contributed to the decision to use Polk more often
in scoring situations near the end of the year. After all, Sproles
needed only nine carries inside the 20 to score more often than
McCoy! Matthews really began to take off about the same time Sanchez
took over for an injured Foles and surprisingly ended the season
with the team lead in all of the red-zone categories for receivers.
Stunningly, Maclin placed third (behind Cooper!?!?!) and finished
with only one more target inside the 20 than Ertz, who saw just
over half the team’s offensive snaps a season ago.
How it affects 2015: By now, Kelly’s roster overhaul has
been well-documented. A healthy Sam Bradford at quarterback should
get Philadelphia’s red-zone passing game numbers looking
more like 2013, even after losing Maclin. First-round WR Nelson
Agholor has been considered by some as a Maclin clone and, while
that comparison isn’t 100 percent accurate, it isn’t
too far off-base either. The rookie could easily replicate Maclin’s
red-zone production in 2015. Can Cooper go 3-for-3 in terms of
garnering double-digit red-zone looks under Kelly? Matthews should
push his total into the high-teens or low-20s, but one would have
to think that Huff or Miles Austin (or maybe UDFA Devante Davis)
will be able to bring more to the table than Cooper. Free agent
RBs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews are undoubtedly better fits
for what Kelly wants at running back than McCoy was, but the coach’s
roster retooling saw the Eagles say goodbye to G Evan Mathis and
G Todd Herremanns. While RG Andrew Gardner may end up being an
upgrade over Herremanns based on their Pro Football Focus grades
last season, counting on new LG Allen Barbre to replace PFF’s
second-best guard in Mathis seems like a tall order and a bit
of a setback for Philadelphia.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Ben Roethlisberger
91
51
20
22
6
10.2
0
0
RB
Le’Veon Bell
40
67.8
6
15
13
14.1
10
3
30
RB
LeGarrette Blount
12
20.4
2
0
3
4
2
0
0
RB
Dri Archer
1
1.1
1
0
0
WR
Antonio Brown
1
1
1
100
1
1.7
0
0
33
35.9
18
8
44.4
WR
Martavis Bryant
8
8.7
4
4
100
WR
Markus Wheaton
7
7.6
3
1
33.3
WR
Lance Moore
6
6.5
2
1
50
WR
Justin Brown
6
6.5
3
0
0
TE
Heath Miller
12
13
8
3
37.5
TE
Michael Palmer
2
2.2
1
1
100
2014 Totals
92
52
21
22.83%
59
100.1
8
13.56%
91
99.6
52
21
40.38%
60.93%
59.13%
39.07%
40.87%
2013 Totals
90
48
18
20.00%
56
100
9
16.07%
87
96.5
48
18
37.50%
61.64%
59.80%
38.36%
40.20%
2012 Totals
73
40
20
27.40%
53
98.3
7
13.21%
69
94.4
40
20
50.00%
57.94%
58.22%
42.06%
41.78%
2011 Totals
58
28
15
25.86%
67
100.1
12
17.91%
58
99.9
28
15
53.57%
46.40%
57.24%
53.60%
42.76%
Overview: Chew on this nugget for a bit: Bell went nine games without
rushing for a touchdown and didn’t score on the ground in
the red zone until Week 11, yet still finished as the top back in
fantasy. Amazingly, half (20) of his 40 carries inside the 20 came
after Week 10, suggesting he is easily capable of handling 50-plus
over a full 16-game season. He also ended up being Roethlisberger’s
second favorite red-zone target, although it becomes clear after
analyzing the passing-game distribution that just about every player
eligible to catch a pass was fair game in scoring territory for
Big Ben if he opted not to throw to Antonio Brown. Unsurprisingly,
Brown was the runaway leader in red-zone targets and ended up with
the second-highest total (behind Demaryius Thomas) I’ve seen
in the four years of this analysis. One more noteworthy point: Pittsburgh’s
run-pass ratio over the last two years under OC Todd Haley is nearly
identical. Given the fact that the nucleus of the offense remains
intact (as well as the lack of a quality backup for Bell), expect
the pass-heavy lean to continue.
How it affects 2015: Like it or not, Bell is capable of bigger
and better things this season simply because Pittsburgh figures
to let him handle as much work as possible as soon as he completes
his season-opening three-game suspension. Ex-Carolina RB DeAngelo
Williams may get a few opportunities in his absence, but there
is no reason why Bell shouldn’t be getting 90 percent of
the red-zone work out of the Steelers’ backfield this season.
Antonio Brown’s targets spiked from 21 two seasons ago to
33 last year. A slight regression should be expected, if only
because Bryant should play a more pivotal role near the goal line
(all four of his red-zone catches were good for scores). Miller’s
involvement nearly doubled from his injury-plagued 2013 season
and should stay roughly the same assuming good health, although
6-7, 261-pound rookie TE Jesse James may be too inviting of a
target for Roethlisberger. Outside of the players I’ve already
mentioned, it is hard to see anybody else – outside of maybe
third-rounder WR Sammie Coates – collecting more than a
handful of targets barring a rash of injuries.
San Diego Chargers
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD %
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD
%
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Philip Rivers
71
41
21
29.6
6
12.2
0
0
RB
Branden Oliver
21
42.9
3
14.3
6
8.5
5
1
20
RB
Ryan Mathews
5
10.2
1
20
1
1.4
0
0
0
RB
Donald Brown
11
22.4
0
0
5
7
3
0
0
RB
Ronnie Brown
2
4.1
0
0
1
1.4
1
0
0
RB
Danny Woodhead
2
4.1
0
0
2
2.8
1
0
0
RB
Shaun Draughn
1
2
0
0
WR
Malcom Floyd
10
14.1
7
4
57.1
WR
Eddie Royal
1
2
0
0
11
15.5
6
4
66.7
WR
Keenan Allen
12
16.9
6
2
33.3
TE
Antonio Gates
19
26.8
10
9
90
TE
Ladarius Green
2
2.8
1
0
0
TE
John Phillips
1
1.4
1
1
100
2014 Totals
71
41
21
29.58%
49
99.9
4
8.16%
70
98.6
41
21
51.22%
59.17%
59.05%
40.83%
40.95%
2013 Totals
87
57
22
25.29%
64
100
8
12.50%
86
98.6
57
22
38.60%
57.62%
52.82%
42.38%
47.18%
2012 Totals
61
40
18
29.51%
54
100
4
7.41%
57
93.4
39
18
46.15%
53.04%
56.23%
46.96%
43.77%
2011 Totals
64
30
14
21.88%
68
99.9
15
22.06%
60
93.8
30
14
46.67%
48.48%
58.40%
51.52%
41.60%
Overview: Over the last three years, no team has struggled scoring
red-zone rushing touchdowns more than the Chargers. A team RuTD%
of 12.5 is a poor mark in any single season, but represents San
Diego’s best percentage in that span. Oliver gave San Diego
the little force on the ground it had, although the Chargers’
inability to consistently punch it in near the goal line is more
of a reflection of the run-blocking capabilities of their offensive
line. The struggles of the running game are even more glaring considering
how often Rivers has turned red-zone throws into touchdowns over
the same three seasons. (His success over that time rivals that
of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Tony Romo.) Gates’
activity was the highest it had been since I started doing Red Zone
Report while Royal’s usage was probably the main reason why
Green remains stuck in neutral. Woodhead’s leg injury and
Allen’s uninspiring first half were probably the main reasons
Gates saw as much action as he did.
How it affects 2015: If first-round RB Melvin Gordon is able
to remain a big-play back in the pros, it may not matter as much
whether or not the Chargers are overly efficient at running the
ball inside the 20. (It remains to be seen whether plugging ex-Bronco
Orlando Franklin in at left guard will be enough to help shore
up the front five.) With no real big-back competition behind him,
the nation’s leading rusher from a season ago should be
in line for over 40 red-zone rushes (and 50 opportunities) if
San Diego can return to the 151-play mark it achieved inside the
20 in 2013, as opposed to the 120 it did last season. Woodhead
and Allen have reportedly enjoyed solid offseasons, meaning the
red-zone reliance on Gates will probably fall off a bit in 2015.
Gates should still lead the charge when he returns from his season-opening
four-game suspension, but he’ll get pushed by Allen. Woodhead
had a staggering 39 scoring opportunities (18 carries, 21 targets)
two seasons ago. A repeat of that magnitude shouldn’t be
expected, but he could end up being more of a drain on Gordon’s
rookie-year production than some are expecting. The wild-card
among the receiver group, however, is ex-Bill and 49er WR Steve
Johnson. Although he is slated to take Royal’s role in the
slot, he is a superior player to his predecessor and could lead
his position group in touchdowns.
Seattle Seahawks
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD %
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD
%
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Russell Wilson
57
28
13
22.8
19
22.9
5
26.3
RB
Marshawn Lynch
52
62.7
12
23.1
10
17.5
6
4
66.7
RB
Robert Turbin
7
8.4
0
0
3
5.3
3
2
66.7
RB
Christine Michael
2
2.5
0
0
1
1.8
0
0
0
RB
Derrick Coleman
1
1.8
1
1
100
WR
Percy Harvin
3
3.6
0
0
3
5.3
3
0
0
WR
Doug Baldwin
12
21.1
8
2
25
WR
Jermaine Kearse
7
12.3
1
1
100
WR
Paul Richardson
3
5.3
2
1
50
TE
Luke Willson
5
8.8
0
0
0
TE
Tony Moeaki
2
3.5
1
1
100
TE
Cooper Helfet
6
10.5
2
1
50
2014 Totals
57
28
13
22.81%
83
100.1
17
20.48%
53
93.2
27
13
48.15%
40.71%
46.37%
59.29%
53.63%
2013 Totals
54
27
18
33.33%
82
98.8
14
17.07%
48
89.1
27
18
66.67%
39.71%
45.21%
60.29%
54.79%
2012 Totals
62
35
18
29.03%
72
100
11
15.28%
56
90.5
35
17
48.57%
46.27%
43.04%
53.73%
56.96%
2011 Totals
50
25
9
18.00%
57
100.1
12
21.05%
50
100
25
9
36.00%
46.73%
49.85%
53.27%
50.15%
Overview: Perhaps no team has a better sense of its identity near
the end zone than Seattle (at least it did prior to its final offensive
play of the Super Bowl). The Seahawks ran one more time and recorded
three more passing attempts than they did two seasons ago, but the
overall numbers above are remarkably similar – with the exception
of the declined efficiency in the passing game. For the second straight
season, Lynch was granted 50-plus carries and at least 60 opportunities
inside the 20. The result in 2013 was 14 touchdowns and 16 in 2014.
Wilson accounted for 19 red-zone scores two years ago and 18 last
year, with the biggest difference being that he was considerably
more efficient on his red-zone runs and considerably less efficient
on his passes last year. Looking at the pass catchers’ totals,
it isn’t hard to figure out why Seattle struggles to make
a receiver or tight end relevant in fantasy.
How it affects 2015: There are really only two questions that
need to be answered for Seattle this year: 1) how much does the
trade for TE Jimmy Graham alter the Seahawks’ offensive
philosophy and 2) will it change how often the team relies on
either Lynch or Wilson to run it in? The overwhelming opinion
is that Seattle will keep pounding the rock, but consider for
a second the best receiving option Wilson has had in his three-year
career was Golden Tate. That not so much a knock on Tate, who
proved himself to be a very good receiver last year, but no one
will ever say the 5-10, 202-pounder is the physical mismatch that
the 6-6, 260-pound Graham is. Seattle’s tight ends combined
for 13 red-zone targets last year; Graham should easily surpass
that by himself. I would expect Lynch’s efficiency –
which has been over a very impressive 20 percent in three of the
four years of the Red Zone Report – to only get better.
If a player like unexpected Super Bowl star WR Chris Matthews
is able to build upon his big-game success, it is scary how good
the Seahawks could be inside the 20 this year.
San Francisco
49ers
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Colin Kaepernick
42
25
11
26.2
15
23.4
0
0
RB
Carlos Hyde
19
29.7
4
21.1
5
11.6
3
0
0
RB
Frank Gore
27
42.2
3
11.1
2
4.7
0
0
0
RB
Bruce Miller
1
1.6
0
0
2
4.7
2
2
100
WR
Steve Johnson
4
9.3
3
3
100
WR
Anquan Boldin
1
0
0
0
15
34.9
8
2
25
WR
Michael Crabtree
9
20.9
6
2
33.3
WR
Bruce Ellington
2
3.1
1
50
3
7
1
1
100
WR
Brandon Lloyd
1
2.3
1
0
0
TE
Vernon Davis
1
2.3
1
1
100
TE
Vance McDonald
1
2.3
0
0
0
2014 Totals
43
25
11
25.58%
64
100
8
12.50%
43
100
25
11
44.00%
40.19%
50.89%
59.81%
49.11%
2013 Totals
51
29
15
29.41%
92
100.2
15
16.30%
49
95.4
29
15
51.72%
35.66%
45.23%
64.34%
54.77%
2012 Totals
46
26
13
28.26%
83
100
14
16.87%
46
100
26
13
50.00%
35.66%
46.98%
64.34%
53.02%
2011 Totals
61
25
9
14.75%
81
98.7
13
16.05%
61
99.9
25
9
36.00%
42.96%
55.73%
57.04%
44.27%
Overview: Kaepernick ran the ball in the red zone only nine times
in 2013 and scored three touchdowns; in 2014, he was shut out on
15 attempts. His “struggles” were representative of
the team as a whole as the demise of the defense (or at least the
drop-off as a result of injuries to key players like LBs Patrick
Willis and Navarro Bowman) allowed opponents to play keep-a-way
from San Francisco and dramatically lower its number of plays inside
the 20. While Hyde did steal a bit of Gore’s thunder near
the goal line, it doesn’t fully account for why the franchise’s
all-time leading rusher saw his red-zone carries fall by more than
half (57 in 2013, 27 in 2014). It shouldn’t come as much of
a revelation that Boldin led the team with 15 red-zone targets,
but Davis’ one target – one season after drawing 18
– was a stunner.
How it affects 2015: Gore left for Indianapolis in the spring,
but did Hyde inherit all of the early-down work Gore left behind
and keep the goal-line duties? Probably not. Fourth-round RB Mike
Davis put on a little bad weight during his final year at South
Carolina and struggled with injuries, but was considered a second-round
talent about this time last year. The Niners also signed RB Reggie
Bush, who will probably either take over or share the passing-down
role that Hunter has typically filled in recent years. The nine
red-zone targets by the running backs were the most since 2011,
but look for that to change with Bush in town. The biggest question
regarding the former USC standout is how much San Francisco will
use him in a Darren Sproles- or Danny Woodhead-like manner in
the red zone. Vernon Davis is going to be much more involved this
year, although it would be a lot to ask for him to match the lofty
red-zone target total he had in 2013. WR Torrey Smith adds an
interesting dynamic insomuch that seven of his 11 touchdowns in
Baltimore last year were inside the 20. Boldin should once again
pace the receivers in red-zone activity, although I could see
Ellington or Quinton Patton emerge as a bit of a wild-card in
scoring territory this year.
St. Louis Rams
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ
Pass %
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Austin Davis
25
17
7
28
2
3.6
0
0
QB
Shaun Hill
23
14
3
13
1
1.8
1
100
1
2.1
1
0
0
RB
B. Cunningham
10
17.9
3
30
6
12.5
5
1
20
RB
Tre Mason
21
37.5
3
14.3
2
4.2
2
0
0
RB
Zac Stacy
13
23.2
1
7.7
2
4.2
0
0
0
RB
Trey Watts
1
1.8
0
0
2
4.2
2
0
0
WR
Tavon Austin
8
14.3
2
25
WR
Brian Quick
3
6.3
3
2
66.7
WR
Stedman Bailey
4
8.3
3
1
33.3
WR
Kenny Britt
6
12.5
3
0
0
WR
Austin Pettis
3
6.3
2
1
50
WR
Chris Givens
1
2.1
0
0
0
TE
Lance Kendricks
6
12.5
4
3
75
TE
Jared Cook
9
18.8
4
1
25
TE
Cory Harkey
2
4.2
2
1
50
2014 Totals
48
31
10
20.83%
56
100.1
10
17.86%
47
98.2
31
10
32.26%
46.15%
56.59%
53.85%
43.41%
2013 Totals
74
34
18
24.32%
67
100
7
10.45%
74
100.1
34
18
52.94%
52.48%
54.29%
47.52%
45.71%
2012 Totals
61
33
13
21.31%
39
100
5
12.82%
61
98.5
34
14
41.18%
61.00%
57.60%
39.00%
42.40%
2011 Totals
43
13
5
11.63%
29
99.8
6
20.69%
42
97.8
13
5
38.46%
59.72%
59.62%
40.28%
40.38%
Overview: The Rams pretty much posted the kind of stats inside the
20 that one might expect from a team that started two former undrafted
free agents at quarterback all season. In a league in which some
teams are getting 3-4 players with double-digit red-zone targets,
it is embarrassing that St. Louis and Cleveland were the only teams
to not have such a player. (For perspective, remember Demaryius
Thomas had 39 red-zone targets by himself last year – eight
fewer than the Rams had as a team.) Some of the blame for that falls
on Quick’s shoulder injury, but most of it goes to the fact
the Rams ran 37 fewer red-zone plays in 2014 (104) than they did
in 2013 (141). One of the more curious abnormalities was the usage
of Austin, who somehow managed eight carries in scoring territory
despite the fact he is generally considered too small (5-8, 176)
to play the slot inside the 20 for a team that was (and still is)
much deeper at running back.
How it affects 2015: St. Louis’ approach isn’t going
to change this year and, in all likelihood, the team will go more
run-heavy regardless of where it is on the field. No. 10 overall
pick RB Todd Gurley should be among the league leaders in red-zone
activity over the next few years and was only the first of several
picks the Rams made in an effort to build a dominant ground game
in the league’s most defensive division. (St. Louis basically
turned over half of its depth chart along the front five, drafting
four offensive linemen.) QB Nick Foles figures to strike a bit
more of fear into opposing defenses than Davis or Hill could,
which should allow Britt, Quick and Cook to all post more respectable
numbers. A healthy Quick should lead the receiving corps in targets
and Britt should enjoy more success than last year, but the Gurley-
(or possibly Mason-) led ground game figures to limit their opportunities
and make counting on one of the big receivers to be a consistent
touchdown scorer an unlikely proposition. The biggest change from
last year, however, will be that Gurley will probably be responsible
for at least 60 percent of his team’s red-zone carries,
whenever he is officially cleared.
Tampa Bay Bucs
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Josh McCown
27
15
7
25.9
6
14.3
3
50
QB
Mike Glennon
23
9
7
30.4
RB
Bobby Rainey
1
0
0
0
17
40.5
1
5.9
3
5.9
1
1
100
RB
Doug Martin
9
21.4
2
22.2
1
2
1
0
0
RB
Charles Sims
4
9.5
1
25
RB
Mike James
6
14.3
0
0
RB
Jorvorskie Lane
1
2
1
0
0
WR
Mike Evans
13
25.5
8
6
75
WR
Vincent Jackson
14
27.5
3
2
66.7
WR
Louis Murphy
6
11.8
3
1
33.3
WR
Robert Herron
1
2
1
1
100
TE
A. S-Jenkins
4
7.8
2
2
100
TE
Brandon Myers
4
7.8
3
0
0
2014 Totals
51
24
14
27.45%
42
100
7
16.67%
47
92.3
23
13
56.52%
54.84%
60.07%
45.16%
39.93%
2013 Totals
57
25
15
26.32%
33
100.1
4
12.12%
51
89.6
23
13
56.52%
63.33%
55.03%
36.67%
44.97%
2012 Totals
71
39
20
28.17%
66
100
8
12.12%
70
98.6
39
20
51.28%
51.82%
57.64%
48.18%
42.36%
2011 Totals
65
39
13
20.00%
30
99.9
6
20.00%
65
100
39
13
33.33%
68.42%
64.18%
31.58%
35.82%
Overview: Want a good reason why fantasy owners should expect a
bounce-back season for Jackson? He had one more red-zone target
than Evans. It’s not a trend that should continue going forward,
but is worth noting nonetheless. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from
Evans’ meager 13 targets inside the 20 is the fact that only
six of his 12 rookie-year touchdowns came in the red zone, which
means he scored his other six TDs from beyond 20 yards – hopefully
proving to the general fan he is more than just a nice tall receiver
that can win jump balls in the end zone (at least for those that
didn’t watch him in college). Jackson secured 18 targets in
each of his first two years in Tampa, so he’s going to remain
a factor in the red zone as any 6-5, 230-pound receiver should.
Rainey has handily led the running backs in red-zone opportunities
in each of the last two years (18 in 2013, 20 in 2014) since Martin’s
huge rookie campaign, something the Bucs desperately need to change
if they want to compete this season.
How it affects 2015: Evans and Jackson have flip-flopped positions
from last year (the former will take over the Julio Jones’
“X” spot in new OC Dirk Koetter’s offense while
the latter will occupy Roddy White’s Z/slot role). While
it is possible that No. 1 overall pick QB Jameis Winston finds
the coverage more lax on Jackson on a consistent basis than he
does for Evans, it seems quite likely the second-year Texas A&M
product will push his red-zone targets into the 20s. Jackson will
also benefit from having one quarterback under center and shouldn’t
be expected to fall too far off of Evans’ pace simply because
the Bucs should be able to execute more than 93 plays inside the
20 this year. Seferian-Jenkins figures to be the biggest winner
of the Koetter hire as the well-respected play-caller has coaxed
solid production out of Jacksonville TE Marcedes Lewis and an
aging Tony Gonzalez in recent years. Martin is reportedly having
his best offseason as a pro. If the “Muscle Hamster”
can approach anything resembling 2012 in his contract year behind
what should be an improved offensive line, it is entirely possible
every skill-position starting player for the Bucs will be useful
in fantasy.
Tennessee Titans
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD
%
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD %
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Charlie Whitehurst
25
12
5
20
1
2.5
0
0
QB
Zach Mettenberger
18
10
5
27.8
QB
Jake Locker
13
5
3
23.1
3
7.5
1
33.3
RB
Bishop Sankey
14
35
2
14.3
1
1.8
1
0
0
RB
Shonn Greene
16
40
2
12.5
1
1.8
0
0
0
RB
Leon Washington
1
2.5
0
0
4
7.1
4
2
50
RB
Dexter McCluster
4
10
0
0
7
12.5
4
1
25
RB
Jackie Battle
1
2.5
1
100
1
1.8
1
0
0
RB
Antonio Andrews
1
1.8
1
0
0
WR
Kendall Wright
8
14.3
5
5
100
WR
Justin Hunter
7
12.5
3
1
33.3
WR
Nate Washington
9
16.1
3
0
0
WR
Derek Hagan
1
1.8
0
0
0
TE
Delanie Walker
12
21.4
4
3
75
TE
Chase Coffman
4
7.1
1
1
100
2014 Totals
56
27
13
23.21%
40
100
6
15.00%
56
100
27
13
48.15%
58.33%
59.03%
41.67%
40.97%
2013 Totals
56
34
13
23.21%
66
100
14
21.21%
54
96.5
34
13
38.24%
45.90%
53.57%
54.10%
46.43%
2012 Totals
50
23
10
20.00%
34
99.9
7
20.59%
50
100
23
10
43.48%
59.52%
58.82%
40.48%
41.18%
2011 Totals
62
35
15
24.19%
35
100.1
7
20.00%
59
95.1
35
15
42.86%
63.92%
61.79%
36.08%
38.21%
Overview: What is a surefire recipe for securing the No. 2 overall
pick in the draft? Cycle through three quarterbacks, draft a second-round
running back and undermine him in just about every way possible
(pull him at the goal line for a runner that gets released in the
offseason as well as on passing downs for two journeymen while also
indicating that his footwork and his blocking are lacking). Undoubtedly,
Sankey has some work to do, but none of these areas seemed to be
overly concerning to Tennessee when they chose him over every other
running back in the 2014 draft, but I digress. Part-timer Nate Washington
(now of the Texans) led the receivers with nine red-zone targets
but did not score while Wright tallied five touchdowns on his eight
targets, which only underscores the mess that was the 2014 Titans.
How it affects 2015: Based on the way the rookies were used last
season, it is fair to wonder if Tennessee was actually picking
off its own draft board last May after the first round. The same
cannot be said about this draft class, which should deliver the
team’s future at quarterback, receiver, fullback and possibly
running back. The selection of QB Marcus Mariota and the team’s
decision to embrace his unique skill set with a heavy use of shotgun
and spread formations figures to give the reigning Heisman Trophy
winner a chance to be the Titans’ Russell Wilson while also
allowing Sankey a chance to run in an offense similar to the one
that helped him finish fourth in the nation in rushing in 2013.
The additions of fourth-round FB Jalston Fowler and fifth-round
RB David Cobb give Tennessee the ability to play smash-mouth football
and should greatly increase the team’s ability to convert
in short-yardage/goal-line situations. Assuming Hunter continues
to disappoint, Walker and Wright should be the clear leaders in
red-zone targets. That could change, however, if second-round
WR Dorial Green-Beckham is able to stay healthy (something he
couldn’t do this offseason) and out of trouble (something
he couldn’t do for most of his college career). Given his
mismatch ability and how well he attacks the ball in the end zone,
the Titans could justify firing 15-20 balls in his direction inside
the 20 this year.
Washington Redskins
Pos
Player
Att
Comp
PaTD
PaTD %
RuAtt
RuAtt %
RuTD
RuTD %
Tar
Tar %
Rec
ReTD
ReTD
%
RZ Pass
%
Pass %
RZ Run
%
Run %
QB
Kirk Cousins
22
13
6
27.3
1
1.4
0
0
QB
Colt McCoy
10
4
1
10
3
4.3
1
33.3
QB
Robert Griffin III
31
14
2
6.5
6
8.7
1
16.7
RB
Alfred Morris
45
65.2
6
13.3
1
1.6
1
0
0
RB
Roy Helu
5
7.2
1
20
5
7.9
3
0
0
RB
Silas Redd
4
5.8
1
25
1
1.6
1
0
0
RB
Chris Thompson
1
1.6
1
1
100
RB
Darrel Young
5
7.2
3
60
3
4.8
1
1
100
WR
Andre Roberts
10
15.9
6
2
33.3
WR
Pierre Garcon
10
15.9
3
2
66.7
WR
DeSean Jackson
10
15.9
5
1
20
WR
Ryan Grant
3
4.8
0
0
0
WR
Santana Moss
1
1.6
1
0
0
TE
Niles Paul
4
6.3
3
1
33.3
TE
Logan Paulsen
3
4.8
1
1
100
TE
Jordan Reed
10
15.9
5
0
0
2014 Totals
63
31
9
14.29%
69
99.8
13
18.84%
62
98.6
31
9
29.03%
47.73%
57.70%
52.27%
42.30%
2013 Totals
65
32
14
21.54%
58
99.9
12
20.69%
63
96.8
32
14
43.75%
52.85%
57.42%
47.15%
42.58%
2012 Totals
44
28
12
27.27%
85
100.1
19
22.35%
42
95.3
28
12
42.86%
34.11%
45.99%
65.89%
54.01%
2011 Totals
77
45
15
19.48%
57
100
5
8.77%
77
100.1
45
15
33.33%
57.46%
61.24%
42.54%
38.76%
Overview: Without question, the most surprising red-zone stat above
is the fact that Roberts tied Garcon, Jackson and Reed for the team
lead in targets. Of course, it would be a bit foolish to suggest
that was part of HC Jay Gruden’s plan; no team seemed to shuffle
quarterbacks more than the Redskins last year. Morris’ usage
rate (45 carries, one target) inside the 20 was nearly as high as
it was during his incredible rookie season of 2012 (52, one), but
poor offensive line play kept him from matching the 11 red-zone
touchdowns he scored as a rookie.
How it affects 2015: It isn’t often in today’s NFL
that a team burns a third-rounder at a position when the incumbent
is 3-for-3 in delivering 1,000-yard rushing seasons, but new GM
Scot McCloughan saw at least a bit of Marshawn Lynch in ex-Florida
RB Matt Jones. Washington is going to strive for a healthy mix
of zone- and man-blocking assignments up front – the former
of which is what Morris is used to (and strives with) while the
latter fits the skills of the rookie. Assuming Paul doesn’t
overtake Reed, owners should expect a fairly equal red-zone split
between the two tight ends since Washington is very likely to
use two-tight formations on a more regular basis. Garcon is the
most physical of the Redskins’ receivers and should be the
most targeted wideout inside the 20, especially since Gruden has
made it a point to get him move involved this season.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
