Five years ago, I introduced "The Dirty Dozen" and "The
Delicious Dozen" around Thanksgiving time. The idea then -
as it is today - was to identify negative and positive receiver
matchups, respectively, as a way to prepare owners for the upcoming
stretch of fantasy games that usually determine who moves on and
who doesn't.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down in much (if any) detail. Until all owners can
enjoy the same kind of access to defensive "production"
as the privileged few, there will be thousands of owners who will
avoid matchups with the Detroit Lions' Darius Slay due to name
recognition when the truth is "Big Play" Slay is allowing
64.4 percent of the targets thrown in his coverage to be completed.
Xavier Rhodes is at 66 percent. Marshon Lattimore is at 68.2 percent.
The point to be made here is not to necessarily target these corners
in weekly matchups, but understand their production this season
is not matching their reputation.
Note: My cutoff for this piece this week
was 275 coverage snaps. At roughly 25 coverage snaps per game,
we should be able to eliminate any players who aren't "full-timers."
Below each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected
matchups each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please
keep in mind that receivers move across the formation a lot nowadays,
while most defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their
corners on one side of the formation, so this is far from an exact
science.
In cases in which a receiver there isn't a discernible difference
in how often a receiver lines up on one side of the field or the
other (which is quite common), the most likely player to see coverage
from the cornerback below will be listed first and the receiver
expected to see slightly less of him will be listed second.
*** - Indicates the cornerback has been/will be used as a "shadow"
12. Nevin Lawson, Detroit (Passer Rating
Against: 113.1)
Lawson has seen time all over the place in 2018, lining up on
the right side 48 percent of his snaps, on the left 18 percent
and in the slot 34 percent. That's not terribly surprising considering
Darius Slay shadows from time to time, but it is also indicative
of Lawson's play and Lions questioning where he fits best. Prior
to allowing a passable 82.9 passer rating against in Week 11 versus
the Panthers, Lawson yielded touchdowns in three straight games
- giving up a passer rating of at least 116.7 in his coverage
each time over that span. It's certainly not a crime to surrender
TD catches to Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson and Adam Thielen as
he did, but the bigger point to be made is that he has yet to
intercept a pass and has recorded a mere two pass breakups on
the season. Perhaps even worse, 62 of the 128 yards he has allowed
after the catch have come in the last two games. In short, receivers
have caught over 70 percent of the targets in his coverage in
four of the last five games AND he is allowing them to tack on
significant yardage to boot. And given Detroit's lack of quality
depth at his position (again) this season and his 5-9, 192-pound
frame, Lawson is going to be someone owners can target for the
remainder of the season.
Week 12: Anthony Miller (Chicago) Week 13: Robert Woods (LA Rams) Week 14: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) Week 15: Zay Jones (Buffalo) Week 16: Adam Thielen/Chad Beebe (Minnesota)
11. Tre
Flowers, Seattle (Passer Rating Against: 113.5)
Flowers had a rough NFL debut, giving up four catches on four
targets for 86 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 when Emmanuel Sanders
was in his coverage. (In all, he yielded seven catches on nine
targets for 124 yards and a score in that game.) The fifth-round
pick, who played safety at Oklahoma State, rebounded nicely over
his next four games, allowing a passer rating no higher than 70.1.
It's safe to say that while the Seahawks have faced some pretty
good quarterback-receiver pairings of late, recent opponents have
been able to emulate the success the Broncos had against him.
Both Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams beat him for a touchdown
on the rare occasion they were in his coverage (three total targets
between the two in that game) in Week 9, contributing to a four-week
run in which quarterbacks have registered a passer rating of at
least 95.5 when throwing in his direction. (Flowers has spent
94 percent of his snaps at right cornerback.) For what it's worth,
Shaquill Griffin hasn't been terribly effective either (86.4 passer
rating allowed). Neither player appears to be in danger of getting
benched anytime soon, meaning this should be a gift that keeps
on giving for fantasy owners.
Witherspoon's last game (Week 10) before the team's Week 11 was
easily his best, as he allowed only one 11-yard catch on five
targets in his coverage against the Giants. Otherwise, his rather
gaudy passer rating against would land him quite a bit higher
on this list. As it is, he has allowed quarterbacks throwing in
his direction to post a passer rating of at least 100 five times
and 96.9 or better six times. To be fair, some of that is a function
of opponents choosing to target him rather than challenge Richard
Sherman (Witherspoon has been targeted 50 times versus 24 for
Sherman). The former third-round pick has not yielded a touchdown
in his coverage over the last three weeks after surrendering five
over his first six outings, although some of that has to do with
the level of competition he's faced over that time (Cardinals,
Raiders, Giants). With San Francisco using a Seattle-style Cover
3 as its primary defense under DC (and former Seahawks assistant)
Robert Saleh, Witherspoon and Sherman will rarely move off their
respective right (81 percent) and left (97) cornerback spots.
Week 12: Mike Evans (Tampa Bay) Week 13: David Moore (Seattle) Week 14: Courtland Sutton (Denver) Week 15: David Moore (Seattle) Week 16: Taylor Gabriel/Allen Robinson (Chicago)
Through the first six weeks of the season, Ryan was mostly a
bend-but-don't-break corner, allowing 13 of the 18 passes in his
coverage to get caught. He did not give up a score though and
was able to post passer rating against numbers of 70.1 or lower
in Weeks 4-6. The slot has not been as kind since then, however,
as he yielded passer rating numbers of 108.3 or higher in three
of his last four games (Week 9 versus the Cowboys being the lone
exception). The Chargers, in particular, were tough on him, as
Keenan Allen caught all three of his targets in Ryan's coverage
while Tyrell Williams scored on a 75-yarder on his only target
with the former New England Patriot tracking him. He held up fine
versus Julian Edelman (3-of-4, 42 yards) in Week 10, but the Colts
went 3-for-3 against him, including a seven-yard score from Dontrelle
Inman. As if it wasn't obvious by the fact he saw significant
time against Allen and Edelman, Ryan has spent 80 percent of his
snaps in the slot for the season. Since Adoree' Jackson and Malcolm
Butler are pretty much locked in as perimeter corners, owners
can be fairly sure he'll line up inside most of the time.
8. Carlton
Davis, Tampa Bay (Passer Rating Against: 116.2)
Unsurprisingly, Davis is already the third first- or second-year
player on this list. It should also come as no surprise that at
least one Buc is a part of the Delicious Dozen, although it may
come as a bit of a shock there is only one. (The snaps limit is
the only thing saving slot corner M.J. Stewart from also being
on the list, as opposing quarterbacks are posting a 148.6 passer
rating in his coverage.) With that said, this second-round rookie
has earned his way on here with four straight poor performances,
giving up 10 receptions and two touchdowns on 14 targets in his
coverage over that span. (Over the last three games, eight of
the nine balls thrown in his direction have been caught.) He has
allowed a passer rating of at least 101.7 in each game since Week
8 and six times all season. Amazingly, he's only yielded 19 yards
after the catch since Week 2 and 81 all season, which means he's
not doing much to stop the completion (something that can be said
for pretty much any Tampa Bay defensive back), but he is doing
a good job of bringing down the receiver once he has the ball
in his hands. Although he has logged only 66 percent of his snaps
there for the season, Davis has been pretty much locked into the
right cornerback slot since Week 2, which coincided with the return
of Brent Grimes following his early-season groin injury.
Week 12: Marquise Goodwin/Pierre Garcon (San Francisco) Week 13: Devin Funchess (Carolina) Week 14: Michael Thomas/Tre'Quan Smith (New Orleans) Week 15: Michael Crabtree (Baltimore) Week 16: Michael Gallup (Dallas)
7. Josh
Norman, Washington (Passer Rating Against: 118.2) ***
Some cornerbacks appear on the Delicious Dozen because they are
average talents, others are there because they are a poor fit
for the scheme or playing hurt, and still others are good players
(and sometimes shadows) who face what seems to be a never-ending
line of difficult matchups. Feel free to put Norman in that last
group. The 30-year-old ranks 25th in Pro Football Focus' coverage
grades among "full-time" corners - right behind Casey
Hayward - so it's not as if he has been a slouch. It's important
to make that distinction because most corners who have surrendered
five touchdowns and 470 yards on 32 catches like Norman might
not grade out so well. This is not to suggest Norman is a shutdown
corner per se, but rather that he remains a highly capable cornerback
who will need occasional help when facing the likes of Odell Beckham
Jr., Julio Jones, Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins like he has over
the last four contests. It is important to note most of those
receivers did most of their damage away from his coverage. Norman
has shadowed on occasion, but it seems as though Washington only
wants to use him in that fashion against the elite receivers -
and not on every snap. Thus, it makes it hard to pin down where
he will be and who he will defend with any degree of consistency.
Week 12: Amari Cooper (Dallas) Week 13: Alshon Jeffery (Philadelphia) Week 14: Odell Beckham Jr. (NY Giants) Week 15: Donte Moncrief/D.J. Chark (Jacksonville) Week 16: Corey Davis (Tennessee)
6. P.J.
Williams, New Orleans (Passer Rating Against: 125.4)
As if anyone needed another reminder about how reliant on stats
some prominent football people when it comes time to hand out
awards (and how much more progress mainstream media and the like
have to make in order to analyze the game well), Williams is a
fine example. The 25-year-old was named the NFC Defensive Player
of the Week in Week 8 despite receiving a 32.0 coverage grade
from PFF and a passer rating against of 118.8. But he won the
award because he forced a fumble and ran an interception thrown
right to him back for a touchdown. Williams spends 80 percent
of his time in the slot and probably isn't going to move out of
there - barring a benching - because the Saints have Marshon Lattimore
and Eli Apple on the outside. For what it's worth, he's been somewhat
respectable at home - last week's passer rating against of 72.9
was his worst in his last three games at the Superdome. On the
road, he has been much worse - giving up a passer rating against
of 109.7 or higher most recently to Minnesota and Cincinnati.
5. Janoris
Jenkins, NY Giants (Passer Rating Against: 128.1)
One of the great unknowns entering any season is how proven players
handle scheme changes. While Jenkins hasn't got much help from
his pass rush (11 sacks), he hasn't come close to playing at the
level in 2018 under new DC James Bettcher that he did in his first
two seasons with the Giants under Steve Spagnuolo. "Jackrabbit"
has been burned for seven touchdowns this season, including back-to-back
two-score weeks against the Panthers and Eagles in Weeks 5-6.
Quarterbacks have completed 73 percent of their 63 throws in his
coverage for 626 yards, which is a clear indication he has not
just been unlucky. Quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of
101.4 or higher against him in four of his last six outings. He
has played 85 percent of his snaps at right cornerback, meaning
he has not only struggled, but he also doesn't travel under Bettcher
like he did last year.
Week 12: Alshon Jeffery (Philadelphia) Week 13: Taylor Gabriel (Chicago) Week 14: Josh Doctson (Washington) Week 15: Taywan Taylor (Tennessee) Week 16: Ryan Grant/T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis)
4. Marcus
Peters, LA Rams (Passer Rating Against: 129.0)
Peters began the season with two very good coverage games against
the Raiders and Cardinals before injuring his hamstring in Week
3 against the Chargers. It has been all downhill since then, almost
to the point where it seems all but certain a report will surface
after the season that Peters is playing through some kind of major
injury. The falloff has been dramatic since the injury, allowing
three passer ratings of 155.8 or higher - unthinkable numbers
for a "No. 1 corner." Among his lowlights: Seattle burned
him for three touchdowns in Week 5 and Michael Thomas phoned in
a 7-146-1 line on nine targets in Week 9. Although he's only yielded
only Thomas' TD catch since the aforementioned Seahawks game,
the Rams have had to resort to other tactics - such as Peters
spending most of Monday night's shootout on Travis Kelce while
Sam Shields and Troy Hill were forced to keep pace with Tyreek
Hill - to keep him from hurting the defense. Peters is a big-play
"gambler" more than a player who defensive coordinators
want shadowing, making him something of a near-perfect complement
for Aqib Talib, so it was a big deal when the former Bronco got
hurt. Perhaps it is just wishful thinking, but I tend to believe
when Talib returns (Week 13 is the target date), we will see the
Peters we expected (assuming his hamstring is actually 100 percent).
With Talib tracking the opponent's top receiver moving forward,
Peters' tendency to read the quarterback and jump routes will
play better because he will, in theory, be guarding a player with
less ability to burn him.
Week 12: bye Week 13: Marvin Jones (Detroit) Week 14: Taylor Gabriel (Chicago) Week 15: Nelson Agholor (Philadelphia) Week 16: Christian Kirk/Chad Williams (Arizona)
Perhaps my eyes betrayed me last week when I mentioned Awuzie
was playing well enough to make the Cowboys feel better about
moving on from their veteran corners last offseason. That is not
the case. The second-year corner gave up a perfect passer rating
in Week 11 against the Falcons and has not posted a rating of
lower than 80.4 all season. In fact, he's only kept it under 100
twice! It gets worse: Awuzie has allowed 76.9 percent of the 52
targets in his coverage to be completed. Only once have opponents
not completed at least 60 percent of their passes in his coverage.
The Cowboys play sides with their corners - Byron Jones has played
96 percent of his snaps on the right side and Awuzie has played
96 percent on the left side - so this is not a situation where
owners can pick the No. 2 receiver from the opposing team in a
given week and feel confident he will be a DFS superstar. What
it does mean is that an opponent's top two receivers should line
up across from him about 40 percent of the time. Regardless, fantasy
owners should not avoid matchups with the Cowboys just because
Jones is playing well. If a coordinator keeps his receivers on
the move, they will avoid him often enough.
Week 12: Maurice Harris/Josh Doctson (Washington) Week 13: Michael Thomas/Tre'Quan Smith (New Orleans) Week 14: Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor (Philadelphia) Week 15: T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant (Indianapolis) Week 16: DeSean Jackson/Mike Evans (Tampa Bay)
While Adoree' Jackson is clearly on his way to becoming a top
cornerback in the league, things are going so poorly for Butler
that he may be playing for his starting job in 2019 despite signing
a five-year contract worth $61.25 million this past offseason.
His performance has picked up over the last two weeks with respectable
passer ratings allowed of 89.6 and 64.6, but that number was 95.8
or higher in seven of his first eight games. He has allowed 639
yards, seven touchdowns and a 71 percent completion rate. Such
performances would be more understandable if he was working as
a shadow opposite the greatest receivers in the game at the moment,
but most of this production is coming with Jackson following those
players. As one might suspect, offenses are attacking him; his
receiver has been targeted at least nine times in three games
this season. With Jackson shadowing on a regular basis, this is
one matchup owners should be able to predict and feel confident
their receiver is going to produce a respectable line more often
than not.
1. Robert
Alford, Atlanta (Passer Rating Against: 144.0)
Alford allowed a passer rating of 75.7 in Week 1 and again in
Week 11. In between, anyone betting he would give up a touchdown
in a given week was right 71.4 percent of the time. He has yielded
18.3 yards per reception so far and surrendered 204 yards after
the catch. Opponents are completing 68.6 percent of their targets
in his coverage and five of the 35 completions he has permitted
have been for touchdowns. He has no interceptions and only one
pass breakup (last week) since Week 4. Get all that? All this
is made worse by the fact the Falcons are so bad at defending
running backs in the passing game, which suggests quarterbacks
are sometimes (often?) willing to forgo what should be a layup
pass to a running back to throw a bit deeper and into Alford's
coverage. As is seemingly the case with all coaches who called
the shots at some point in Seattle's heyday as an elite Cover
3 defense, Atlanta does not move its corners very often, meaning
Alford has spent 93 percent of his snaps this season on the right
side. Much like Awuzie, owners aren't going to get a full-time
matchup for their receiver with Alford. Thankfully for those owners,
left cornerback Desmond Trufant's passer rating against is 100.2
and slot corner Brian Poole's is 108.1, so almost any decent receiver
should have a solid day at the office if they see at least five
to seven targets against Atlanta.
Week 12: Michael Thomas/Tre'Quan Smith (New Orleans) Week 13: Michael Crabtree (Baltimore) Week 14: Davante Adams (Green Bay) Week 15: Christian Kirk (Arizona) Week 16: Devin Funchess (Carolina)
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.