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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 200 Big Board, FFPC High-Stakes League
Preseason Matchup Analysis
9/1/18

TFC | FPPC

Just like in every other fantasy football league, each week is important. Unlike most leagues, there is a $250,000 grand prize waiting for the lucky owner who is able to mix regular-season success with postseason dominance with the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). That means as important as matchups are in the first 11 weeks (two-week, four-team playoffs start in Week 12), they are exponentially more important in the run during the Championship Round (Weeks 14-16).

The point to be made here is December is critical not only for collecting the $1,500 owners get for winning their league, but also to make sure they stack enough high-scoring weeks on top of one another over the remainder of the season in order to keep themselves in the running for the big prize. In short, it is advantageous for owners to line up as many late favorable matchups as possible for their best players. As such, I will put a heavier emphasis on late-season matchups in this format than I do on my other Big Boards. The uniqueness of the title run in the high-stakes leagues I cover every August (TFC, FFPC) makes it necessary to create Big Boards solely for them.

Unlike the first three Big Boards, I will move a player up or down the board a bit within his SSI tier in an effort to account for the unique playoff structure. I am willing to admit my shortcomings - one of which being I am not so sophisticated to believe I can create an algorithm that includes the potential impact of a player's final five games without corrupting the integrity of my overall rankings. Another nuance is one FFPC veterans are quite familiar with: some owners are going to have key players unavailable for the first week of their playoffs since the FFPC postseason begins in Week 12. As a result, I (and they) have to account for an important absence in an important week. Those players' names will be highlighted in red below.

There is one major scoring difference from the TFC Big Board published earlier this week: the FFPC uses tight end-premium scoring, which means tight ends receive 1.5 points for every catch as opposed to the standard one point per reception every other position gets.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the SSI concept as well as the color-coding system before we start:

SSI (Success Score Index) - A single number that reflects a score based on meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at a position. It is the number that allows me to compare apples to oranges across the positions.

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 200
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB1 David Johnson ARI 26 1184.8
2 RB2 Todd Gurley LAR 24 1218.3
3 RB3 Leonard Fournette JAC 23 1168.1
4 RB4 Melvin Gordon LAC 25 1160.5
5 WR1 Antonio Brown PIT 30 1150.4
6 RB5 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 23 1147.7
7 WR2 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25 1145.8
8 RB6 Saquon Barkley NYG 21 1145.4
9 RB7 Le'Veon Bell PIT 26 1136.5
10 RB8 Kareem Hunt KC 23 1126.2
11 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 29 1106.4
12 WR3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26 1122.1
13 RB9 Alvin Kamara NO 23 1083.4
14 WR4 Julio Jones ATL 29 1063.3
15 RB10 Christian McCaffrey CAR 22 1060.1
16 RB11 Dalvin Cook MIN 23 1054.3
17 WR5 Michael Thomas NO 25 1053.3
18 WR6 Keenan Allen LAC 26 1048.1
19 TE2 Travis Kelce KC 28 1046.7
20 WR7 Davante Adams GB 25 1043.8
21 WR8 A.J. Green CIN 30 1038.6
22 WR9 Stefon Diggs MIN 24 1021.5
23 RB12 Alex Collins BAL 24 1014.0
24 RB13 Devonta Freeman ATL 26 1013.9
25 RB14 Jordan Howard CHI 23 1011.4
26 RB15 Joe Mixon CIN 22 1008.1
27 TE3 Zach Ertz PHI 27 970.8
28 WR10 Mike Evans TB 25 1013.0
29 WR11 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 35 1007.3
30 RB16 Jerick McKinnon SF 26 989.0
31 WR12 T.Y. Hilton IND 28 987.8
32 WR13 Doug Baldwin SEA 29 969.8
33 WR14 Tyreek Hill KC 24 964.9
34 RB17 Kenyan Drake MIA 24 961.3
35 WR15 Demaryius Thomas DEN 30 957.5
36 WR16 Amari Cooper OAK 24 952.3
37 RB18 Jamaal Williams GB 23 942.1
38 RB19 Derrick Henry TEN 24 941.5
39 RB20 LeSean McCoy BUF 30 939.2
40 TE4 Jimmy Graham GB 31 933.3
41 WR17 Adam Thielen MIN 28 922.5
42 WR18 Corey Davis TEN 23 910.5
43 RB21 Royce Freeman DEN 22 908.2
44 TE5 Trey Burton CHI 26 900.3
45 RB22 Lamar Miller HOU 27 905.6
46 RB23 Dion Lewis TEN 27 903.3
47 WR19 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 31 898.8
48 TE6 Delanie Walker TEN 34 892.2
49 WR20 Chris Hogan NE 29 886.9
50 WR21 Marvin Jones DET 28 885.5
51 WR22 Jarvis Landry CLE 25 884.8
52 RB24 Marshawn Lynch OAK 32 881.1
53 QB1 Aaron Rodgers GB 34 879.5
54 TE7 Greg Olsen CAR 33 889.0
55 TE8 Kyle Rudolph MIN 28 883.3
56 RB25 Jay Ajayi PHI 25 890.3
57 WR23 Josh Gordon CLE 27 879.1
58 WR24 Allen Robinson CHI 25 876.9
59 WR25 Golden Tate DET 30 872.1
60 TE9 Evan Engram NYG 23 864.9
61 RB26 Rex Burkhead NE 28 863.4
62 TE10 Jack Doyle IND 28 862.0
63 WR26 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21 852.5
64 WR27 Jamison Crowder WAS 25 850.8
65 WR28 Marquise Goodwin SF 27 850.5
66 RB27 Tarik Cohen CHI 23 846.8
67 RB28 Chris Thompson WAS 27 844.7
68 RB29 Chris Carson SEA 23 843.8
69 TE11 David Njoku CLE 22 842.1
70 RB30 Carlos Hyde CLE 27 841.4
71 WR29 Michael Crabtree BAL 30 838.8
72 RB31 Tevin Coleman ATL 25 838.6
73 RB32 Isaiah Crowell NYJ 25 837.3
74 RB33 Sony Michel NE 23 835.0
75 TE12 Jordan Reed WAS 28 835.0
76 WR30 Brandin Cooks LAR 24 828.6
77 QB2 Tom Brady NE 41 828.3
78 WR31 Sterling Shepard NYG 25 827.3
79 WR32 Sammy Watkins KC 25 849.0
80 RB34 Kerryon Johnson DET 21 825.6
81 QB3 Drew Brees NO 39 824.5
82 WR33 Robby Anderson NYJ 25 824.3
83 WR34 Cooper Kupp LAR 25 822.9
84 RB35 Mark Ingram NO 28 822.7
85 QB4 Deshaun Watson HOU 22 822.3
86 QB5 Kirk Cousins MIN 30 818.5
87 WR35 Robert Woods LAR 26 817.3
88 WR36 Alshon Jeffery PHI 28 817.0
89 RB36 Peyton Barber TB 24 816.8
90 RB37 Duke Johnson CLE 24 816.9
91 WR37 Kenny Stills MIA 26 816.9
92 QB6 Russell Wilson SEA 29 816.8
93 TE13 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI 23 815.1
94 QB7 Cam Newton CAR 29 814.3
95 WR38 Jordy Nelson OAK 33 813.8
96 RB38 Bilal Powell NYJ 29 809.9
97 WR39 Nelson Agholor PHI 25 809.8
98 QB8 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36 804.0
99 QB9 Andrew Luck IND 28 803.8
100 QB10 Philip Rivers LAC 36 802.0
101 WR40 Randall Cobb GB 28 800.5
102 QB11 Carson Wentz PHI 25 798.0
103 RB39 Ronald Jones TB 21 822.6
104 TE14 O.J. Howard TB 23 804.9
105 RB40 Adrian Peterson WAS 33 799.5
106 TE15 Mike Gesicki MIA 22 797.4
107 QB12 Matthew Stafford DET 30 794.0
108 WR41 Devin Funchess CAR 24 793.8
109 TE16 George Kittle SF 24 790.1
110 WR42 Will Fuller HOU 24 789.0
111 RB41 Marlon Mack IND 22 788.5
112 QB13 Marcus Mariota TEN 24 785.5
113 TE17 Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAC 25 784.9
114 WR43 Julian Edelman NE 32 782.5
115 RB42 Matt Breida SF 23 782.0
116 QB14 Patrick Mahomes KC 22 779.5
117 WR44 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 27 779.3
118 TE18 Ben Watson NO 37 779.2
119 QB15 Matt Ryan ATL 33 778.5
120 QB16 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26 775.3
121 TE19 Vance McDonald PIT 28 772.3
122 WR45 Michael Gallup DAL 22 773.4
123 WR46 DeVante Parker MIA 25 774.0
124 TE20 Eric Ebron IND 25 770.3
125 TE21 Cameron Brate TB 27 770.3
126 RB43 Ty Montgomery GB 25 768.2
127 RB44 Rashaad Penny SEA 22 763.2
128 WR47 John Brown BAL 28 763.0
129 RB45 James White NE 26 760.1
130 QB17 Jared Goff LAR 23 771.0
131 WR48 Mike Williams LAC 23 758.8
132 WR49 Pierre Garcon SF 32 756.9
133 QB18 Alex Smith WAS 34 759.3
134 QB19 Blake Bortles JAC 26 756.5
135 TE22 Charles Clay BUF 29 753.4
136 RB46 Jordan Wilkins IND 24 752.7
137 WR50 Kenny Golladay DET 28 751.4
138 WR51 Anthony Miller CHI 23 750.0
139 WR52 Dede Westbrook JAC 24 749.5
140 QB20 Dak Prescott DAL 25 743.3
141 WR53 Cameron Meredith NO 25 742.5
142 RB47 Giovani Bernard CIN 26 742.4
143 RB48 Austin Ekeler LAC 23 740.1
144 WR54 Josh Doctson WAS 25 736.8
145 TE23 Tyler Eifert CIN 27 728.0
146 RB49 Frank Gore MIA 35 735.8
147 WR55 Rishard Matthews TEN 28 735.5
148 QB21 Eli Manning NYG 37 735.3
149 RB50 Theo Riddick DET 27 734.6
150 WR56 D.J. Moore CAR 21 732.8
151 WR57 Chris Godwin TB 22 732.5
152 QB22 Andy Dalton CIN 30 732.0
153 RB51 Devontae Booker DEN 26 731.9
154 WR58 Keelan Cole JAC 25 731.1
155 WR59 Tyrell Williams LAC 26 731.0
156 WR60 John Ross CIN 22 730.8
157 RB52 Nick Chubb CLE 22 726.3
158 RB53 Latavius Murray MIN 28 686.4
159 RB54 James Conner PIT 23 706.6
160 WR61 Geronimo Allison GB 24 724.9
161 RB55 Corey Clement PHI 23 709.5
162 RB56 Javorius Allen BAL 27 657.5
163 RB57 Nyheim Hines IND 21 723.1
164 WR62 James Washington PIT 22 719.9
165 QB23 Jameis Winston TB 24 719.5
166 WR63 Tyler Lockett SEA 25 717.1
167 QB24 Derek Carr OAK 27 716.3
168 WR64 Calvin Ridley ATL 23 705.6
169 QB25 Mitch Trubisky CHI 24 704.5
170 QB26 Case Keenum DEN 30 703.8
171 WR65 Courtland Sutton DEN 22 701.8
172 TE24 Hayden Hurst BAL 25 701.0
173 WR66 Danny Amendola MIA 32 699.5
174 RB58 Aaron Jones GB 23 685.5
175 RB59 T.J. Yeldon JAC 24 633.5
176 RB60 Alfred Morris SF 22 657.3
177 RB61 Jalen Richard OAK 24 696.6
178 WR67 Allen Hurns DAL 26 695.6
179 WR68 Christian Kirk ARI 21 690.3
180 TE25 Jared Cook OAK 31 689.2
181 TE26 Austin Hooper ATL 23 687.1
182 WR69 DeSean Jackson TB 31 681.5
183 RB62 C.J. Anderson CAR 27 674.5
184 WR70 Tavon Austin DAL 28 680.2
185 RB63 Doug Martin OAK 29 678.9
186 WR71 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 26 678.3
187 TE27 Gerald Everett LAR 24 676.8
188 WR72 Ryan Grant IND 27 672.3
189 WR73 Donte Moncrief JAC 25 660.5
190 TE28 Vernon Davis WAS 34 653.8
191 WR74 Mike Wallace PHI 32 653.0
192 WR75 Mohamed Sanu ATL 28 634.8
193 RB64 D'Onta Foreman HOU 22 643.2
194 RB65 Darren Sproles PHI 35 626.1
195 RB66 Chase Edmonds ARI 22 597.3
196 TE29 Tyler Kroft CIN 25 622.0
197 TE30 Dallas Goedert PHI 24 616.9
198 RB67 Spencer Ware KC 26 608.5
199 WR76 Ted Ginn Jr. NO 33 625.6
200 TE31 Jake Butt DEN 23 589.9

TFC Big Board




Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.