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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Opportunity Knocks - AFC
Preseason Matchup Analysis
Posted: 7/10/18
 

As a whole, the fantasy industry tends to place a heavy emphasis on last year's final stats in order to arrive at projections for the upcoming season. While there is no one foolproof or perfect way to project player performance, setting up a ranking system this way is the equivalent of shopping for a house without bothering to look inside. The numbers we see at the end of every week and year are really the only qualities of "the house" that are easily accessible, and it is much easier for owners to attribute a bad game or year to his/her player "being a bum" or the coach failing to use him when it seems obvious he needs to be on the field. There is rarely one and only one all-encompassing answer to a football question, so don't be afraid to dig deeper. Using the house example, do yourself a favor and inspect the property before buying what you are being sold.

As far as I know, my PMA methodology takes into account about as many factors as any approach. Trying to accurately predict workload and/or target shares is among the most difficult. If done well, however, making accurate predictions becomes a whole lot easier. (As was the case last year.) Some analysts believe the type of analysis I'm about to share below is flawed, due in part because it does not visibly account for play-calling in neutral or relatively neutral game scripts (when the conditions are best suited for a play-caller to remain in his comfort zone - tied or within one score - as opposed to passing the ball to catch up or running the ball to protect the lead - situations in which the play-caller's hand is forced a bit). Perhaps at some point in the near future I will start working in metrics such as the previous year's pace of play and yards gained per drive into the following season's rankings, but I find many of them to be more telling and impactful during the season and extremely difficult to use for predictive purposes - at least when it comes to organizing fantasy players.

The long and short of it is this: Play-callers and quarterbacks are primarily responsible for getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers and that doesn't happen by accident. It is one thing to say Todd Gurley is going to get nearly 70 percent of his backfield's carries or Michael Thomas will see 25 percent of his team's targets, but is there any recent historical precedent for that?

This week and next, I will attempt to provide each of you a better grasp of the way players are able to reach the statistical heights they do (or don't), focusing primarily on the recent history of the men who will call the shots. Given the injury rate of players and turnover rate of coaches, be advised this will be far from a perfect exercise. With that said, I think you will find some of the information below to be fascinating and perhaps even helpful. This week, we take a look at the AFC:

BAL | BUF | CIN | CLE | DEN | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LAC | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | PIT | TEN

Baltimore
OC Marty Mornhinweg

   Mornhinweg (BAL) 2017    Mornhinweg (NYJ) 2014    Mornhinweg (NYJ) 2013
Pos Player Carry
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  460 561 507 482 493 478
RB1 Alex Collins 46.1% 6.4% Chris Ivory 39.1% 5.6% Chris Ivory 36.9% 1.5%
RB2 Javorius Allen 33.3% 10.7% Chris Johnson 30.6% 7.1% Bilal Powell 35.7% 11.9%
WR1 Mike Wallace 0.2% 16.4% Eric Decker 0.0% 23.9% Jeremy Kerley 0.8% 15.1%
WR2 Jeremy Maclin 0.0% 12.8% Jeremy Kerley 0.8% 15.6% David Nelson 0.0% 12.6%
WR3 Chris Moore 0.4% 6.8% Percy Harvin 4.3% 10.8% Two Tied 0.0% 12.3%
TE1 Ben Watson 0.0% 14.1% Jace Amaro 0.0% 11.0% Kellen Winslow 0.0% 9.8%

While Mornhinweg's "recent" history suggests he likes to employ a split backfield (and last year's numbers do as well), I'm not sure we can make an apples-to-apples comparison of Collins and Allen to Ivory and Johnson or Powell. Despite not settling into a workhorse role until around Week 8, it was quite a remarkable achievement Collins finished with 46.1 percent of the team's rushing attempts. HC John Harbaugh did not commit to Collins as his lead back at the end of the season, but there aren't any notable obstacles keeping him from being featured like he was during the second half of the season. Allen is clearly no threat to his job and merely a change-of-pace option, Danny Woodhead retired and Kenneth Dixon has some work to do to regain trust with the team. A strong camp from Dixon could muddy the waters a bit, but Collins' job security should be strong entering the season. If Dixon doesn't tear up training camp, Collins should have no problem being the first back under Mornhinweg since LeSean McCoy in 2011 to record more than half of his team's rushing attempts.

It's difficult to draw much of a conclusion from the above charts when it comes to Mornhinweg's passing games, as Joe Flacco (2017) and Geno Smith (2013-14) aren't legends in the making, to be kind. Baltimore's tendency to turn over the receiver position each season makes this kind of exercise difficult as well, as does the relative lack of star power Mornhinweg has enjoyed at receiver in his recent gigs. Decker's 23.9 percent target share is easily the highest mark in the three years above. Given the Ravens' current predicament, Michael Crabtree is a legitimate threat to make a serious run at Decker's mark. John Brown and Willie Snead probably don't inspire much confidence as potential No. 2 and No. 3 options, but they are probably the best men at those spots Mornhinweg has coached since his days with the Eagles (2003-12). Still, Maclin's 72 targets or 12.8 percent target share from a year ago probably represents their ceiling. If there is some good news, it might be that Mornhinweg has made a concerted effort to keep his top tight end involved. Hayden Hurst's biggest obstacle to a 10-percent target share would appear to be fellow rookie Mark Andrews, who projects to be a more durable version of former Flacco favorite Dennis Pitta. The most likely outcome is the two rookies combine to match or barely exceed Watsons 14.1 percent target share. It seems highly unlikely Baltimore will have more than four players finish with a target share of over 10 percent with Crabtree likely to see at least 20, so Allen's involvement figures to take a hit as well even if he holds off Dixon.

Buffalo
OC Brian Daboll

Daboll hasn't served as an offensive coordinator in the NFL since 2012. While he called plays for the University of Alabama during its national championship run last season and is a respected offensive mind in the league, he quickly flamed out in three NFL stops (Cleveland, Miami and Kansas City) over a four-year period from 2009-12. On the plus side, his offenses finished among the top six in rushing attempts and top 11 in rushing yards three times apiece.

Cincinnati
OC Bill Lazor

   Lazor (CIN) 2017    Lazor (MIA) 2015    Lazor (MIA) 2014
Pos Player Carry
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437 584 344 581 399 593
RB1 Joe Mixon 47.2% 7.0% Lamar Miller 56.4% 9.8% Lamar Miller 54.1% 8.8%
RB2 Giovani Bernard 27.9% 12.3% Jay Ajayi 14.2% 1.9% Daniel Thomas 11.0% 3.2%
WR1 A.J. Green 0.0% 29.4% Jarvis Landry 5.2% 28.6% Mike Wallace 1.0% 19.4%
WR2 Brandon LaFell 0.0% 18.3% Kenny Stills 0.0% 10.8% Jarvis Landry 0.5% 18.9%
WR3 Tyler Boyd 0.0% 6.6% Rishard Matthews 0.3% 10.5% Brian Hartline 0.0% 10.6%
TE1 Tyler Kroft 0.0% 12.7% Jordan Cameron 0.0% 12.0% Charles Clay 0.0% 14.2%

It appears as Lazor wants to have a clear workhorse runner, as Mixon's 47.2 percent carry share is easily the lowest of any of his lead backs. The 2017 second-round pick likely would have been more in line with Miller's carry share percentages had he not been hurt multiple times late last season. (It is worth mentioning Lazor was forced to take over for Ken Zampese after two games in 2017, so be careful about reading too much into last year's numbers.) The most notable difference between his offenses in Miami and the 2017 Bengals were how many more rushing attempts Cincinnati had. The most likely explanations: 1) Lazor did what he could to protect Andy Dalton from a poor offensive line and 2) rely less on a receiving corps that struggled to stay healthy. Mixon appears poised to take on a workhorse role earlier this season and won't have a back like Jeremy Hill stealing early-down snaps, so getting him around a 55 percent carry share is not a big ask. Bernard's involvement was a bit higher than his injury-shortened 2016 campaign but considerably lower than it had been the previous two seasons. Rookie Mark Walton is definitely a threat to his workload, but it is more likely he will simply take over Bernard's role in 2019 should the Bengals choose to move on from the veteran.

Although last year's target shares were distorted by the number of injuries Cincinnati suffered, it's hard to overlook the fact Lazor has found a way to get five receivers target shares of a at least 18 percent in his three seasons as the primary play-caller. Because the number of targets have been so consistent (no lower than 581, no higher than 593), projecting the Bengals' pass-catchers shouldn't be too difficult so long as we know the identity of Green's sidekick sometime in early August. The favorite should be John Ross, although LaFell seems to have more staying power than anyone cares to admit. Still, it shouldn't take a huge effort in training camp and/or the preseason for last year's first-round pick to win the job. Lazor has typically been able to keep the No. 3 receiver in his offenses involved as well, although owners in most 12-team leagues need at least a 13-15 percent target share from any receiver they plan to start on a fairly regular basis. Tight ends have stayed very active - relative to others at the position - in Lazor's offenses, as Cameron's 12 percent is the lowest of the three tight ends above. Unlike the receiver position, owners can often find decent regular starters at tight end with target shares of at least 12 percent. Unfortunately, figuring out whether Tyler Eifert or Kroft will be that potential starting fantasy tight end this season is the question. Eifert will obviously play, but can he stay healthy for 12-14 games?

Cleveland
OC Todd Haley

   Haley (PIT) 2017    Haley (PIT) 2016    Haley (PIT) 2015
Pos Player Carry
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437 584 408 590 388 583
RB1 Le'Veon Bell 73.5% 18.2% Le'Veon Bell 64.0% 15.9% DeAngelo Williams 51.5% 8.1%
RB2 James Conner 7.3% 0.2% DeAngelo Williams 24.0% 4.6% Le'Veon Bell 29.1% 4.5%
WR1 Antonio Brown 0.0% 27.9% Antonio Brown 0.7% 26.1% Antonio Brown 0.8% 33.1%
WR2 Martavis Bryant 1.4% 14.4% Eli Rogers 0.2% 11.2% Martavis Bryant 1.3% 15.8%
WR3 JuJu Smith-Schuster 0.0% 13.5% Sammie Coates 1.0% 8.3% Markus Wheaton 0.0% 13.6%
TE1 Jesse James 0.0% 10.8% Jesse James 0.0% 10.2% Heath Miller 0.3% 13.9%

Haley's former team (Pittsburgh) is set up quite differently at running back than the Browns, as we have to go back to 2012 to see the last time the Steelers had anything resembling a committee backfield. (For those that may not remember, Bell never shared carries with DeAngelo Williams, as Bell was either injured or serving suspensions at some point every year except 2014.) Beginning with the Isaac Redman-Jonathan Dwyer tag team of 2012, the only other time there was a significant difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 rusher in one of Haley's backfields was in his first offensive coordinator gig with Arizona back in 2007, so Haley is no stranger to utilizing a committee backfield. His current stable of backs (Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb) will almost certainly force him to return to those roots. How that workload will be split up is another story, other than Johnson getting most of the work on passing downs. Haley's offenses have consistently churned out at least 400 rushing attempts per season, and there's no reason to believe an offense led by either Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield won't try to be more balanced, so the floor for Hyde and Chubb should be around 140-150 carries if Haley opts for more of a straight split backfield on early downs. Considering the makeup of the roster, Johnson appears to be an extreme longshot to push his career high of 104 rushing attempts as a rookie in 2015.

With some notable exceptions due to injuries or suspensions to Bell and Bryant, Haley did a fine job of consistently getting five players over 10 percent of the target share during his time in Pittsburgh despite the presence of target hog Brown and a running back who might as well have been a second receiver. Johnson probably isn't going to rival Bell when it comes to his recent target shares (15.9 in 2016 and 18.2 in 2017), but it would not be a surprise if Haley finds a way to get him his usual 60-plus catches. A healthy and focused Josh Gordon probably could approach Brown's lofty target shares over the last half-decade, but there's almost no way Cleveland airs it out more this year than last (574 passing attempts) or as much as a Ben Roethlisberger-led offense considering the Browns' situation at quarterback. (Let's not forget to mention they should have a better team and a defense capable of letting the offense be conservative when it wants to be as well.) Rather than have one target hog like Brown, there's a pretty good chance Gordon and Jarvis Landry will finish right above or right below a 20-percent target share, while Johnson pushes for 12-14 and Corey Coleman goes for around 10. David Njoku was already at 10.6 percent last year playing less than half of the snaps. If he plays 70 percent or more of the snaps in 2018, he might finish with a 15-percent target share as well. Tight ends have consistently been busy under Haley, and Njoku is clearly the most dangerous playmaker of the bunch above.

Denver
OC Bill Musgrave

   Musgrave (OAK) 2016    Musgrave (OAK) 2015
Pos Player Carry
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432 588 369 600
RB1 Latavius Murray 45.1% 7.3% Latavius Murray 72.1% 8.80%
RB2 DeAndre Washington 20.1% 3.9% Jamize Olawale 6.5% 1.80%
RB3 Jalen Richard 19.2% 6.6% Amari Cooper 0.8% 21.70%
WR1 Michael Crabtree 0.0% 24.7% Michael Crabtree 0.0% 24.30%
WR2 Amari Cooper 0.2% 22.4% Seth Roberts 0.0% 9.20%
WR3 Seth Roberts 0.0% 13.1% Clive Walford 0.0% 8.30%
TE1 Clive Walford 0.0% 8.8%      

There aren't many drawbacks to doing a study like this, but one of them is trying to figure out what to do with coordinators who take over an offense during the middle of the season. Most "interim" play-callers are forced to run a modified version of the offense already in place, making it difficult to ascertain how much of the offense is actually being influenced by their presence. (The reason I chose to include Lazor's offense above was because he had 14 games to make his mark. Former Denver OC Mike McCoy was canned in Week 11 last season, so it would be unfair to put the Broncos' failings on Musgrave's record.) Getting back to Musgrave, there's not much we can deduce about how he likes to use running backs despite his extensive history as an NFL play-caller. His history suggests he prefers a bell-cow back, but he also has rarely ever had to make a tough call in that regard (Fred Taylor and Adrian Peterson among them). When he took over the gig last year from McCoy, it wasn't long before C.J. Anderson saw some of his heaviest workloads of the season. One year earlier, he appeared to replace Murray almost on a whim. The season before that, Murray handled an inordinate percentage of the carries in Oakland. Thus, it would appear if Royce Freeman or Devontae Booker make a strong statement in August, they will get at least 50 percent of the carries and a fairly long leash to keep the starting job.

For what it's worth, Musgrave is known as a very conservative play-caller. His offenses have typically focused in on no more than three primary targets in the passing game and left the rest of the pass-catchers picking up the scraps. Such an approach made sense with the Raiders in 2015 and 2016, as Crabtree and Cooper each saw well over 20 percent of the target share. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are certainly comparable to Crabtree and Cooper and don't figure to have any immediate competition for targets (much like Crabtree and Cooper), so a minimum of a 20-percent target share for both seems very likely. Because Sanders works so well out of the slot, Courtland Sutton figures to have a leg up on fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton to be third in line. Even if Sutton emerges as a quasi-full time player (based on snap count) early on, you'll be hard-pressed to come close to Roberts' 13.1 percent target share from last season. For whatever reason, Musgrave's offenses haven't thrown much to the running back. It's fair to say if Washington and Richard aren't soaking up the targets, Booker and De'Angelo Henderson probably won't either. Musgrave was the play-caller during Kyle Rudolph's nine-touchdown season in 2012, so he's not as anti-tight end as it might appear above. Still, people like me hoping for a productive season from Jake Butt cannot be encouraged by Musgrave's relative lack of use of the position in his recent history.

Houston
HC/OC Bill O'Brien

   O'Brien 2017    O'Brien 2016    O'Brien 2015
Pos Player Carry
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448 516 456 577 472 613
RB1 Lamar Miller 53.1% 8.7% Lamar Miller 58.8% 6.8% Alfred Blue 38.8% 2.6%
RB2 D'Onta Foreman 17.4% 1.6% Alfred Blue 21.9% 2.8% Chris Polk 21.0% 4.6%
RB3 Alfred Blue 15.8% 1.7% DeAndre Hopkins 0.0% 26.2% DeAndre Hopkins 0.0% 31.3%
WR1 DeAndre Hopkins 0.0% 33.7% Will Fuller 0.2% 15.9% Nate Washington 0.0% 15.3%
WR2 Bruce Ellington 0.7% 11.0% Braxton Miller 0.7% 4.9% Cecil Shorts 2.1% 12.2%
WR3 Will Fuller 0.4% 9.7% C.J. Fiedorowicz 0.0% 15.4% Ryan Griffin 0.0% 5.5%
TE1 Stephen Anderson 0.0% 10.1% Ryan Griffin 0.0% 12.8%

Contrary to popular belief, the Texans have ran the ball a lot under O'Brien - last year's 448 carries were the fewest any of his teams over four seasons in Houston. Just because the Texans have seemingly found their long-term quarterback, don't look for things to change much in that regard. Thus, no matter what happens with Miller as it relates to potentially losing his job to D'Onta Foreman at some point down the road, Miller is probably going to see at least 200 carries each season over the final two years of his contract (2018 and 2019). Foreman's recovery from his Achilles' injury would seem to make Miller a lock for another heavy workload in 2018, and he'll do so behind a quarterback defenses must respect and an offensive line that should be significantly better than the one he's had to deal with over his first two seasons. Be it due to circumstance, injury or poor play, O'Brien has made sure at least one other back has received a fairly significant carry share every year as well. That's part of the reason why Foreman - assuming he doesn't need to start the season on the PUP list - is such a smart addition late in drafts, because he should be serviceable enough to fill in as an emergency replacement in his backup role and comes with the added bonus of possibly forcing a split backfield - if he doesn't steal the starting job outright - on a team that will probably run 450 times against this season.

O'Brien hasn't come all that close to having a full arsenal offensively yet, but he is about as close as he's ever been entering his fifth season at the helm. Hopkins has clearly emerged as one of the top receivers in the league. With no less than a 26.2 percent target share in any of the last three years, he belongs with Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones as the receivers most likely to push for 30 percent of his team's targets. Running backs and tight ends haven’t been much of a factor in the passing game in three of O'Brien's four offenses, leaving plenty of opportunities for a second receiver to push for a 20 percent target share even after Hopkins gets his. Fuller is the most realistic wideout to hit that mark, although his lack of durability is easily his biggest obstacle to doing so. The 2015 season is probably the best example of the distribution O'Brien would like to see among his wideouts, most notably with his third receiver finishing with a 12.2 percent target share. Rookie Keke Coutee seems to be impressing the coaches out of the slot and is a candidate to replicate Shorts' 2015 production (targets and target share) in the role the team has wanted Braxton Miller to grab. Houston appears destined to use a committee at tight end. While Griffin and Anderson could probably be fantasy-viable if the other wasn’t around, they figure to cancel each other out in this offense.

Indianapolis
OC Frank Reich

In title, Reich has four seasons of NFL experience as an offensive coordinator. In reality, we know very little about his play-calling tendencies. HC Doug Pederson called the shots in 2016 and 2017 with the Eagles. In 2014 and 2015, Reich called the plays for San Diego but did so using then-HC Mike McCoy's scheme. It's fairly obvious from April's draft that Pederson's committee approach at running back rubbed off on Reich at least a little bit, and it should be noted the carry shares for Philadelphia's top three backs over the last two seasons have been 36.6-15.6-14.8 (2017) and 35.5-21.5-17.6 (2016). Owners should expect Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines (likely in that order) to be the men who fill those slots in 2018.

T.Y. Hilton was already a good bet to bounce back this season, assuming Andrew Luck can play all season. Indianapolis' depth chart at receiver almost guarantees he'll at least match and probably exceed Alshon Jeffery's 21.6 percent target share from a year ago. Eric Ebron was signed in free agency to play the Zach Ertz role in Reich's offense, although asking him to assume Ertz's 19.8 (2017) or 17.5 (2016) percent of the target share is a tall order for a player who hasn't proven to be very consistent as a pro. Ryan Grant could be asked to mimic Nelson Agholor, who finished with a 17.1 percent target share with the Eagles last year. Beyond that, there is too much uncertainty - both with Reich calling plays in his own scheme and among the receivers vying for the starting job opposite Hilton - to draw many solid conclusions.

Jacksonville
OC Nathaniel Hackett

   Hackett (JAC) 2017    Hackett (BUF) 2014    Hackett (BUF) 2013
Pos Player Carry
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527 517 402 572 546 519
RB1 Leonard Fournette 50.9% 9.3% Fred Jackson 35.1% 15.7% Fred Jackson 37.7% 12.5%
RB2 Chris Ivory 21.3% 5.4% Anthony Dixon 26.1% 1.6% C.J. Spiller 37.0% 7.9%
WR1 Marqise Lee 0.2% 18.6% Sammy Watkins 0.5% 22.4% Steve Johnson 0.2% 19.5%
WR2 Keelan Cole 0.0% 16.1% Robert Woods 0.0% 18.2% Robert Woods 0.4% 16.4%
WR3 Allen Hurns 0.0% 10.8% Chris Hogan 0.0% 10.7% T.J. Graham 0.7% 11.2%
TE1 Marcedes Lewis 0.0% 9.3% Scott Chandler 0.0% 12.2% Scott Chandler 0.0% 15.6%

Although Hackett's history suggests he may favor a committee backfield, there's very little mystery to sort through with the Jaguars. Fournette missed three full games, played hurt the second half of the season and still finished with a 50.9 percent carry share. If he can play all 16 games and stay healthier in 2018, expect that number to be in the 65 percent neighborhood. The biggest question to solve at the position is whether or not Jacksonville is finally willing to unleash Corey Grant on a larger scale. Hackett told the media in late May that Grant "is a guy we've got to get out there," presumably after the 26-year-old back flashed for the umpteenth time in limited action during the AFC Championship. If the Jaguars truly want to "change the pace" with a back on their roster, the choice needs to be Grant and not T.J. Yeldon.

Hackett hasn't been afraid to get his main back highly involved in the passing game, as an aging Jackson posted target shares in 2013 and 2014 - approaching Le'Veon Bell territory as a receiver. Fournette is a candidate for at least 12 percent just at the pace he was on as a rookie. Each of the three offenses Hackett oversaw from beginning to end (2013, 2014 and 2017) saw three receivers amass target shares of at least 10.8 percent, which is a less common that one might assume. Based on the charts above, owners might think another 20-15-10 line will be in store this season. Lee will be the favorite to see the most targets once again, but I'm not sure that's a given. Keelan Cole may simply be too good not to be on equal footing with Lee. Donte Moncrief is getting paid too much to not be considered at least the second receiver. Dede Westbrook remains on the roster, while rookie D.J. Chark is going to be hard not to target when he's in the game. Last but not least, Austin Seferian-Jenkins will probably be no worse than third on the team in overall targets. It may not be a stretch for the Jaguars to have only one receiver/tight end have a target share above 12 percent while four or five others finish between eight and 12 percent.

Kansas City
HC Andy Reid

   Reid 2017    Reid 2016    Reid 2015
Pos Player Carry
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432 588 411 536 435 463
RB1 Kareem Hunt 67.2% 11.9% Spencer Ware 52.1% 7.8% Charcandrick West 36.8% 7.3%
RB2 Charcandrick West 4.4% 6.4% Charcandrick West 21.4% 6.3% Spencer Ware 16.6% 1.3%
WR1 Tyreek Hill 4.2% 19.9% Tyreek Hill 5.8% 15.5% Jeremy Maclin 0.7% 26.8%
WR2 Albert Wilson 0.7% 11.7% Jeremy Maclin 0.2% 14.2% Albert Wilson 1.1% 12.3%
WR3 Demarcus Robinson 0.0% 7.4% Chris Conley 0.0% 12.9% Chris Conley 0.0% 6.7%
TE1 Travis Kelce 0.5% 23.1% Travis Kelce 0.2% 21.8% Travis Kelce 0.0% 22.2%

Considering there was a seven-game stretch in which Hunt recorded 11 or fewer carries four times, it almost boggles the mind Hunt still managed a 67.2 percent carry share. With Ware not guaranteed to be ready to be ready for training camp, it seems like a relatively safe bet Hunt could go over 70 percent in 2018 since West and Damien Williams don't bring anything to the table Hunt doesn't already possess. There's no guarantee a healthy Ware would put much of a dent in Hunt's workload at this point anyway, as Reid has already stated he liked the fact the second-year back finished with 325 touches last season. Reid seemed hell-bent on making sure West was involved in two-minute and third-down situations before handing play-calling duties over to Matt Nagy late in 2017. Nagy featured Hunt before accepting the head-coaching job with the Bears after the season, leaving perspective fantasy owners of Hunt to wonder if Reid is going to play his usual game of forgetting he has a game-breaker at running back four or five times per season. As a whole, however, Reid finds a way to get his backs in the neighborhood of 300 touches on a fairly regular basis.

Perhaps the most notable observation is that Kelce has easily seeded a 20 percent target share in each of the last three seasons, which is an incredible number for a tight end. That mark could dip a little bit in 2018 if only because Kansas City's offense is more loaded than at any other time during Reid's tenure. Hill and Sammy Watkins should each exceed 15 percent and Hunt may come close. All four players can be considered matchup nightmares, so while I expect this team to resemble the 2016 Chiefs more than any other team I listed above, I don't recall Reid ever having this much receiving talent on the same team at the same time. Better yet from a fantasy perspective, Kansas City's defense is a good bet to be weaker this season, so it is reasonable that Reid's new starting quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) will be the first Chief to attempt 600 passes in a season in Reid's five years at the helm.

Los Angeles Chargers
HC Anthony Lynn/OC Ken Whisenhunt

   Whisenhunt (SD) 2017    Whisenhunt (TEN) 2016
Pos Player Carry
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419 570 374 556
RB1 Melvin Gordon 67.8% 14.6% Melvin Gordon 67.9% 10.3%
RB2 Austin Ekeler 11.2% 6.1% Kenneth Farrow 16.0% 2.9%
WR1 Keenan Allen 0.5% 27.9% Tyrell Williams 0.0% 21.4%
WR2 Tyrell Williams 0.0% 12.1% Dontrelle Inman 0.0% 17.4%
WR3 Travis Benjamin 3.1% 10.9% Travis Benjamin 0.5% 13.5%
TE1 Hunter Henry 0.0% 10.9% Antonio Gates 0.0% 16.7%
TE2 Antonio Gates 0.0% 9.1% Hunter Henry 0.0% 9.5%

Gordon only played 13 games in 2016 and played hurt toward the end of 2017, but it is clear he is the unquestioned workhorse in this backfield as Whisenhunt has given him essentially the same workload in consecutive years under different head coaches. The Chargers' offensive line remains a work in progress, but this year's unit should be the best of Gordon's career if it can avoid the injuries that have plagued it over the last few seasons. With a capable "satellite back" like Ekeler and proven college workhorse like Justin Jackson, Gordon may see a small dip in his overall touches, but it should be minimal.

One of the first things Whisenhunt did following the loss of Henry this spring was imply Gordon and Ekeler's role in the passing game could expand. While it seems unlikely Gordon can go much higher than last year's 83 targets, it is unlikely he'll see significantly fewer. Ekeler could see the biggest increase, as 35 targets is a low number for someone with his playmaking ability. He's a good bet to finish in the eight to 10 percent neighborhood in 2018. Another way the Chargers can make up for the targets left behind by Henry and Gates is to rely even more heavily on Allen in the slot. As the passing game's only established (and healthy) middle-of-the-field pass-catcher and Philip Rivers' favorite target, Allen could beat last year's 27.9 target share. Tyrell Williams proved in 2016 he can handle a plus-20 target share; he's a virtual lock to see more than 12.1 percent in 2018. Benjamin will remain involved in the offense simply because he is so explosive, but Los Angeles will probably give his share last season to Mike Williams and make Benjamin more of a situational deep threat who will focus more on returning punts. The big reason why every Charger can expect a similar or increased target share this year is because the tight end position accounted for 21.2 percent of the targets last season. Virgil Green is currently the top option on the depth chart, and a target share of anything more than six or seven percent for him would be a huge upset.

Miami
HC Adam Gase

   Gase (MIA) 2017    Gase (MIA) 2016    Gase (CHI) 2015
Pos Player Carry
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  Player Carry
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  Player Carry
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360 586 404 467 468 519
RB1 Jay Ajayi 38.3% 3.4% Jay Ajayi 64.4% 7.5% Matt Forte 46.6% 11.2%
RB2 Kenyan Drake 36.9% 8.2% Damien Williams 8.7% 6.9% Jeremy Langford 31.6% 8.1%
WR1 Jarvis Landry 0.3% 27.5% Jarvis Landry 1.2% 28.1% Alshon Jeffery 0.0% 18.1%
WR2 Kenny Stills 0.0% 17.9% DeVante Parker 0.0% 18.6% Marquess Wilson 0.0% 9.8%
WR3 DeVante Parker 0.0% 16.4% Kenny Stills 0.0% 17.3% Eddie Royal 0.2% 9.6%
TE1 Julius Thomas 0.0% 10.6% Dion Sims 0.0% 7.5% Martellus Bennett 0.0% 15.4%

Due to injury on some occasions and performance other times, Gase doesn't have a great history starting and ending the season with the same running back (technically, Knowshon Moreno in 2013 with Denver - Gase's first coordinator job - is the only one who has done so). That's obviously bad news for Drake, who will be looking to buck the trend started by the likes of Montee Ball, Arian Foster and Ajayi. The problem is C.J. Anderson's second half in 2014 and Ajayi's 2016 season are proof Gase has no problem riding one back if he proves himself worthy of the responsibility. Unfortunately, Frank Gore refuses to go away as he enters his 14th season in the league. Gore hasn't finished with fewer than 200 carries in a season since his rookie year in 2005, and the Dolphins' offseason seems to be a clear indication Gase isn't satisfied at the position. So as tempting as it is to buy heavy into Drake as a value pick at his 4.04 ADP, Gase's history suggests it is probably more likely he will ceding plenty of work on passing downs to Gore - long recognized as one of the best at his position in pass pro - and possibly even at the goal line.

Trying to get a predictive read on the Miami passing game isn't much easier than the running game. Gase's offense with the Bears was the only one in which running backs combined for a 20 percent target share, so history suggests receivers and tight ends will have over 80 percent of the targets to themselves. The Dolphins have tried to shoehorn Parker into the No. 1 role in the last two years, only to watch him get hurt and have Landry hog the targets. The free-agent additions of Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson may give Gase the deepest receiving corps he's enjoyed since his history-making offense with the Broncos in 2013. However, that's a problem for fantasy in the unlikely event everybody stays healthy. What does seem likely is that Parker and Stills will attract target shares no lower than 16 percent, if only because Amendola and Wilson may not absorb all of the looks Landry got. If that's the case, then Parker and Stills may both go over 20 percent. There's also a likely scenario in which rookie Mike Gesicki picks up those loose targets in addition to the 10.6 percent share Thomas is leaving behind. No one should be surprised if the shares in this passing game are split in 2018 as follows: 22 (Parker)-20 (Stills)-14 (Amendola, assuming only 2-3 missed games)-12 (Gesicki)-11 (Wilson). That breakdown would leave 21 percent for the running backs and backup tight ends to share.

New England
OC Josh McDaniels

   McDaniels 2017    McDaniels 2016    McDaniels 2015
Pos Player Carry
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448 584 482 546 383 624
RB1 Dion Lewis 40.2% 6.0% LeGarrette Blount 62.0% 1.5% LeGarrette Blount 43.1% 1.1%
RB2 Mike Gillislee 23.2% 0.2% Dion Lewis 13.3% 4.4% Brandon Bolden 16.4% 4.8%
RB3 Rex Burkhead 14.3% 6.2% James White 8.1% 15.8% Dion Lewis 12.8% 8.0%
RB4 James White 9.6% 12.3% Julian Edelman 2.5% 29.1% Julian Edelman 0.8% 14.1%
WR1 Brandin Cooks 2.0% 19.5% Chris Hogan 0.6% 10.6% Danny Amendola 0.5% 13.9%
WR2 Danny Amendola 0.0% 14.7% Malcolm Mitchell 0.0% 8.8% Brandon LaFell 0.5% 11.9%
WR3 Chris Hogan 0.7% 10.1% Martellus Bennett 0.4% 13.4% Rob Gronkowski 0.0% 19.2%
TE2 Rob Gronkowski 0.0% 18.0% Rob Gronkowski 0.0% 7.0% Scott Chandler 0.0% 6.7%

Among the many fun facts an analyst could use to entertain readers regarding the Patriots' backfield last year is this nugget: Gillislee received only six carries after Week 8, was inactive for the bulk of the second half of the season and was still far and away second on the team in carry share. Another fun fact: 27.8 percent of Lewis' carries came in Weeks 16 and 17. Subtract those carries and Lewis ends the season with only 26 more rushing attempts than Gillislee. In the five weeks (Weeks 10-14) both Burkhead and Lewis were active and finished the game following Gillislee's banishment to the doghouse, Burkhead was actually the more productive fantasy back and touched the ball one less time than Lewis. There are some people who would suggest the selection of Sony Michel is going to lead to more Week 16-17 Lewis-like usage because he is a first-round pick and less of the Week 10-14 committee. Others believe Michel is the next Alvin Kamara, but White's role in the offense isn't just going away. The beauty and the ugliness (from a fantasy perspective) of the Patriots' offense is that it morphs from game to game and season to season. Michel may very well end up being the lead back in this offense … or we can rely on 10 or so years of evidence that suggests he will team up with Burkhead on running downs and give way to White on a high percentage of passing downs.

Edelman's four-game suspension is going to skew his target share numbers when we revisit this column next summer, but this much has been consistently true over his last four healthy seasons (2013-16): he's going to see at least nine targets per game when he is on the field. During Gronkowski's three last healthy years (2014, 2015 and 2017), he's averaged eight targets. That means in any given game, Edelman (20-plus), Gronkowski (18-plus) and White (12-plus) can be expected to eat up over half of the targets. Why is that notable? We haven't discussed an outside receiver yet. Hogan is the only perimeter receiver who already has some level of chemistry with Tom Brady, and he has to be considered the best candidate to fill the 19.5 percent target share left behind by Cooks. Jordan Matthews should be considered the heavy favorite to replace Edelman in the slot while he is gone, and he is also likely the best bet to replace Hogan's 10.1 target share from 2017 once Edelman returns. However, given the unpredictability of the New England offense, it's also just as likely Matthews excepts a bit role once Edelman completes his suspension while Michel and Burkhead join White in the 10 percent target share club for Patriots' running backs.

New York Jets
OC Jeremy Bates

   John Morton (NYJ) 2017
Pos Player Carry
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427 495
RB1 Bilal Powell 41.7% 6.7%
RB2 Matt Forte 24.1% 9.1%
RB3 Elijah McGuire 20.6% 5.3%
WR1 Robby Anderson 0.7% 23.0%
WR2 Jermaine Kearse 0.0% 20.6%
TE1 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 0.0% 14.9%

Bates' first and only coordinator job was a one-year stint - and a largely unproductive one - with Seattle in 2010. According to Jets LT Kelvin Beachum, Bates will not overhaul the scheme set in place by Morton last season and run a "quasi-West Coast type of offense" in 2018 with perhaps more emphasis on outside zone runs than last year's attack. I have chosen to include the Jets' breakdown from last year above, if only as a point of reference. Because Bates obviously will add his own flavor to the offense and have his own idiosyncrasies, it seems pointless to try to reach for conclusions based on an offense run by another play-caller last year.

Oakland
HC Jon Gruden

   Gruden (TB) 2007    Gruden (TB) 2007    Gruden (TB) 2006
Pos Player Carry
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451 549 449 476 404 528
RB1 Warrick Dunn 41.2% 12.4% Earnest Graham 49.4% 14.5% Cadillac Williams 55.7% 8.3%
RB2 Earnest Graham 29.3% 6.0% Michael Pittman 15.1% 8.2% Mike Alstott 14.9% 7.2%
RB3 Cadillac Williams 14.0% 1.3% Cadillac Williams 12.0% 1.1% Michael Pittman 12.4% 14.4%
WR1 Antonio Bryant 0.4% 25.1% Joey Galloway 0.2% 20.6% Joey Galloway 0.5% 27.1%
WR2 Michael Clayton 0.4% 11.1% Ike Hilliard 0.2% 18.1% Michael Clayton 1.2% 12.3%
WR3 Ike Hilliard 0.2% 10.6% Michael Clayton 1.1% 8.4% Ike Hilliard 0.0% 10.4%
TE1 Jerramy Stevens 0.0% 10.7% Alex Smith 0.0% 11.1% Alex Smith 0.0% 10.0%

Much like I did with Bates above, I am providing the breakdown of Gruden's last three seasons for reference purposes only. Assuming Gruden hasn't changed at all in 10 years away from coaching would be a huge mistake, although there are a few things we may be able to surmise from his time in Tampa Bay (2002-08) and Oakland (1998-2001). With very few exceptions (Charlie Garner in 2001 and Cadillac Williams in 2005), Gruden typically had a clear division of labor at running back. There was typically a large gap between the carry shares of the No. 1 back and No. 2, while the No. 2 back typically made a sizable contribution as a receiver. Referring to the three-year breakdown above, running backs often saw more than 20 percent of the target share - something I would expect to continue moving forward, which obviously bodes well for Jalen Richard and/or DeAndre Washington. Gruden does believe in running the ball, which should be obvious from the high number of carries in the three-year sample provided above.

Gruden was among the best play designers in the game during his first act as a coach and was able to adapt his offense when necessary to cater to a number of different types of No. 1 receivers with the Bucs (Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Michael Clayton, Galloway and Bryant). Amari Cooper is probably most like Bryant from the bunch, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he matched Bryant's 25 percent target share with Michael Crabtree out of the picture. Projecting much past that at receiver seems like a worthless exercise, as even a 33-year-old Jordy Nelson should be better than any second receiver above. Gruden also made the most out of average tight ends in his offense, as Stevens and Smith were both athletic but not the most consistent. That's good news for Jared Cook, who could push for a 12 percent target share.

Pittsburgh
OC Randy Fichtner

Prior to his promotion this offseason, Fichtner was the quarterbacks coach for the Steelers since 2010. In the three previous seasons, he was the team's receivers coach. The entirety of his offensive coordinating experience comes from the college game. He served as Arkansas State's play-caller from 1997-2000 and Memphis' offensive coordinator from 2001-06.

Tennessee
OC Matt LaFleur

   Sean McVay/LaFleur (LAR) 2017
Pos Player Carry
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454 510
RB1 Todd Gurley 61.5% 17.1%
RB2 Malcolm Brown 13.9% 2.2%
WR1 Cooper Kupp 0.0% 18.4%
WR2 Robert Woods 0.4% 16.7%
WR3 Sammy Watkins 0.0% 13.7%
TE1 Tyler Higbee 0.0% 8.8%

Despite carrying the title of offensive coordinator with the Rams last season, LaFleur took a back seat to McVay, as the latter called the shots on offense in 2017. The first (and only other) time LaFleur was the play-caller for a team was for Division II Ashland in 2007. Fortunately, we should be able to get a general sense of what he is going to be like as an offensive coordinator. From 2008-13 and 2015-16, LaFleur worked under Kyle Shanahan first in Houston, then in Washington and again in Atlanta - mostly as his quarterbacks coach. It's very likely Shanahan's affection for outside zone runs found a home in LaFleur's playbook as well. RPOs (run-pass options) figure to be a bigger part of the Titans' attack, if only because Mariota is comparable athletically to Robert Griffin. LaFleur was the position coach for Griffin in 2012 when he and Alfred Morris took the league by storm with RPOs. There's a strong argument to be made Mariota and Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis bring more to the table. The Titans also have a more talented offensive line and a better receiving corps than did the Redskins. It should be interesting to see if any of this comes to fruition, but the general assumption should be that LaFleur will take after Shanahan much more than any other coach in his background.

With that said, it would be a mistake to dismiss LaFleur's influence on McVay's offense. McVay raved about LaFleur's impact on the offense in early October last year, so perhaps Shanahan's knack for being able to mold his system to fit the strengths of his players is something LaFleur will have the ability to do as well.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.