As a whole, the fantasy industry tends to place a heavy emphasis
on last year's final stats in order to arrive at projections for
the upcoming season. While there is no one foolproof or perfect
way to project player performance, setting up a ranking system this
way is the equivalent of shopping for a house without bothering
to look inside. The numbers we see at the end of every week and
year are really the only qualities of "the house" that
are easily accessible, and it is much easier for owners to attribute
a bad game or year to his/her player "being a bum" or
the coach failing to use him when it seems obvious he needs to be
on the field. There is rarely one and only one all-encompassing
answer to a football question, so don't be afraid to dig deeper.
Using the house example, do yourself a favor and inspect the property
before buying what you are being sold.
As far as I know, my PMA methodology takes into account about
as many factors as any approach. Trying to accurately predict
workload and/or target shares is among the most difficult. If
done well, however, making accurate predictions becomes a whole
lot easier. (As
was the case last year.) Some analysts believe the type of
analysis I'm about to share below is flawed, due in part because
it does not visibly account for play-calling in neutral or relatively
neutral game scripts (when the conditions are best suited for
a play-caller to remain in his comfort zone - tied or within one
score - as opposed to passing the ball to catch up or running
the ball to protect the lead - situations in which the play-caller's
hand is forced a bit). Perhaps at some point in the near future
I will start working in metrics such as the previous year's pace
of play and yards gained per drive into the following season's
rankings, but I find many of them to be more telling and impactful
during the season and extremely difficult to use for predictive
purposes - at least when it comes to organizing fantasy players.
The long and short of it is this: Play-callers and quarterbacks
are primarily responsible for getting the ball in the hands of
their playmakers and that doesn't happen by accident. It is one
thing to say Todd Gurley is going to get nearly 70 percent of
his backfield's carries or Michael Thomas will see 25 percent
of his team's targets, but is there any recent historical precedent
for that?
This week and next, I will attempt to provide each of you a better
grasp of the way players are able to reach the statistical heights
they do (or don't), focusing primarily on the recent history of
the men who will call the shots. Given the injury rate of players
and turnover rate of coaches, be advised this will be far from
a perfect exercise. With that said, I think you will find some
of the information below to be fascinating and perhaps even helpful.
This week, we take a look at the AFC:
While Mornhinweg's "recent" history suggests he likes
to employ a split backfield (and last year's numbers do as well),
I'm not sure we can make an apples-to-apples comparison of Collins
and Allen to Ivory and Johnson or Powell. Despite not settling into
a workhorse role until around Week 8, it was quite a remarkable
achievement Collins finished with 46.1 percent of the team's rushing
attempts. HC John Harbaugh did not commit to Collins as his lead
back at the end of the season, but there aren't any notable obstacles
keeping him from being featured like he was during the second half
of the season. Allen is clearly no threat to his job and merely
a change-of-pace option, Danny Woodhead retired and Kenneth Dixon
has some work to do to regain trust with the team. A strong camp
from Dixon could muddy the waters a bit, but Collins' job security
should be strong entering the season. If Dixon doesn't tear up training
camp, Collins should have no problem being the first back under
Mornhinweg since LeSean McCoy in 2011 to record more than half of
his team's rushing attempts.
It's difficult to draw much of a
conclusion from the above charts when it comes to Mornhinweg's
passing games, as Joe Flacco (2017) and Geno Smith (2013-14) aren't
legends in the making, to be kind. Baltimore's tendency to turn
over the receiver position each season makes this kind of exercise
difficult as well, as does the relative lack of star power Mornhinweg
has enjoyed at receiver in his recent gigs. Decker's 23.9 percent
target share is easily the highest mark in the three years above.
Given the Ravens' current predicament, Michael Crabtree is a legitimate
threat to make a serious run at Decker's mark. John Brown and
Willie Snead probably don't inspire much confidence as potential
No. 2 and No. 3 options, but they are probably the best men at
those spots Mornhinweg has coached since his days with the Eagles
(2003-12). Still, Maclin's 72 targets or 12.8 percent target share
from a year ago probably represents their ceiling. If there is
some good news, it might be that Mornhinweg has made a concerted
effort to keep his top tight end involved. Hayden Hurst's biggest
obstacle to a 10-percent target share would appear to be fellow
rookie Mark Andrews, who projects to be a more durable version
of former Flacco favorite Dennis Pitta. The most likely outcome
is the two rookies combine to match or barely exceed Watsons 14.1
percent target share. It seems highly unlikely Baltimore will
have more than four players finish with a target share of over
10 percent with Crabtree likely to see at least 20, so Allen's
involvement figures to take a hit as well even if he holds off
Dixon.
Buffalo OC Brian Daboll
Daboll hasn't served as an offensive coordinator in the NFL since
2012. While he called plays for the University of Alabama during
its national championship run last season and is a respected offensive
mind in the league, he quickly flamed out in three NFL stops (Cleveland,
Miami and Kansas City) over a four-year period from 2009-12. On
the plus side, his offenses finished among the top six in rushing
attempts and top 11 in rushing yards three times apiece.
Cincinnati OC Bill Lazor
Lazor (CIN) 2017
Lazor (MIA) 2015
Lazor (MIA) 2014
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
437
584
344
581
399
593
RB1
Joe Mixon
47.2%
7.0%
Lamar Miller
56.4%
9.8%
Lamar Miller
54.1%
8.8%
RB2
Giovani Bernard
27.9%
12.3%
Jay Ajayi
14.2%
1.9%
Daniel Thomas
11.0%
3.2%
WR1
A.J. Green
0.0%
29.4%
Jarvis Landry
5.2%
28.6%
Mike Wallace
1.0%
19.4%
WR2
Brandon LaFell
0.0%
18.3%
Kenny Stills
0.0%
10.8%
Jarvis Landry
0.5%
18.9%
WR3
Tyler Boyd
0.0%
6.6%
Rishard Matthews
0.3%
10.5%
Brian Hartline
0.0%
10.6%
TE1
Tyler Kroft
0.0%
12.7%
Jordan Cameron
0.0%
12.0%
Charles Clay
0.0%
14.2%
It appears as Lazor wants to have a clear workhorse runner, as
Mixon's 47.2 percent carry share is easily the lowest of any of
his lead backs. The 2017 second-round pick likely would have been
more in line with Miller's carry share percentages had he not
been hurt multiple times late last season. (It is worth mentioning
Lazor was forced to take over for Ken Zampese after two games
in 2017, so be careful about reading too much into last year's
numbers.) The most notable difference between his offenses in
Miami and the 2017 Bengals were how many more rushing attempts
Cincinnati had. The most likely explanations: 1) Lazor did what
he could to protect Andy Dalton from a poor offensive line and
2) rely less on a receiving corps that struggled to stay healthy.
Mixon appears poised to take on a workhorse role earlier this
season and won't have a back like Jeremy Hill stealing early-down
snaps, so getting him around a 55 percent carry share is not a
big ask. Bernard's involvement was a bit higher than his injury-shortened
2016 campaign but considerably lower than it had been the previous
two seasons. Rookie Mark Walton is definitely a threat to his
workload, but it is more likely he will simply take over Bernard's
role in 2019 should the Bengals choose to move on from the veteran.
Although last year's target shares were distorted by the number
of injuries Cincinnati suffered, it's hard to overlook the fact
Lazor has found a way to get five receivers target shares of a
at least 18 percent in his three seasons as the primary play-caller.
Because the number of targets have been so consistent (no lower
than 581, no higher than 593), projecting the Bengals' pass-catchers
shouldn't be too difficult so long as we know the identity of
Green's sidekick sometime in early August. The favorite should
be John Ross, although LaFell seems to have more staying power
than anyone cares to admit. Still, it shouldn't take a huge effort
in training camp and/or the preseason for last year's first-round
pick to win the job. Lazor has typically been able to keep the
No. 3 receiver in his offenses involved as well, although owners
in most 12-team leagues need at least a 13-15 percent target share
from any receiver they plan to start on a fairly regular basis.
Tight ends have stayed very active - relative to others at the
position - in Lazor's offenses, as Cameron's 12 percent is the
lowest of the three tight ends above. Unlike the receiver position,
owners can often find decent regular starters at tight end with
target shares of at least 12 percent. Unfortunately, figuring
out whether Tyler Eifert or Kroft will be that potential starting
fantasy tight end this season is the question. Eifert will obviously
play, but can he stay healthy for 12-14 games?
Cleveland OC Todd Haley
Haley (PIT) 2017
Haley (PIT) 2016
Haley (PIT) 2015
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
437
584
408
590
388
583
RB1
Le'Veon Bell
73.5%
18.2%
Le'Veon Bell
64.0%
15.9%
DeAngelo Williams
51.5%
8.1%
RB2
James Conner
7.3%
0.2%
DeAngelo Williams
24.0%
4.6%
Le'Veon Bell
29.1%
4.5%
WR1
Antonio Brown
0.0%
27.9%
Antonio Brown
0.7%
26.1%
Antonio Brown
0.8%
33.1%
WR2
Martavis Bryant
1.4%
14.4%
Eli Rogers
0.2%
11.2%
Martavis Bryant
1.3%
15.8%
WR3
JuJu Smith-Schuster
0.0%
13.5%
Sammie Coates
1.0%
8.3%
Markus Wheaton
0.0%
13.6%
TE1
Jesse James
0.0%
10.8%
Jesse James
0.0%
10.2%
Heath Miller
0.3%
13.9%
Haley's former team (Pittsburgh) is set up quite differently at
running back than the Browns, as we have to go back to 2012 to see
the last time the Steelers had anything resembling a committee backfield.
(For those that may not remember, Bell never shared carries with
DeAngelo Williams, as Bell was either injured or serving suspensions
at some point every year except 2014.) Beginning with the Isaac
Redman-Jonathan Dwyer tag team of 2012, the only other time there
was a significant difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 rusher
in one of Haley's backfields was in his first offensive coordinator
gig with Arizona back in 2007, so Haley is no stranger to utilizing
a committee backfield. His current stable of backs (Carlos Hyde,
Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb) will almost certainly force him to
return to those roots. How that workload will be split up is another
story, other than Johnson getting most of the work on passing downs.
Haley's offenses have consistently churned out at least 400 rushing
attempts per season, and there's no reason to believe an offense
led by either Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield won't try to be more
balanced, so the floor for Hyde and Chubb should be around 140-150
carries if Haley opts for more of a straight split backfield on
early downs. Considering the makeup of the roster, Johnson appears
to be an extreme longshot to push his career high of 104 rushing
attempts as a rookie in 2015.
With some notable exceptions due
to injuries or suspensions to Bell and Bryant, Haley did a fine
job of consistently getting five players over 10 percent of the
target share during his time in Pittsburgh despite the presence
of target hog Brown and a running back who might as well have
been a second receiver. Johnson probably isn't going to rival
Bell when it comes to his recent target shares (15.9 in 2016 and
18.2 in 2017), but it would not be a surprise if Haley finds a
way to get him his usual 60-plus catches. A healthy and focused
Josh Gordon probably could approach Brown's lofty target shares
over the last half-decade, but there's almost no way Cleveland
airs it out more this year than last (574 passing attempts) or
as much as a Ben Roethlisberger-led offense considering the Browns'
situation at quarterback. (Let's not forget to mention they should
have a better team and a defense capable of letting the offense
be conservative when it wants to be as well.) Rather than have
one target hog like Brown, there's a pretty good chance Gordon
and Jarvis Landry will finish right above or right below a 20-percent
target share, while Johnson pushes for 12-14 and Corey Coleman
goes for around 10. David Njoku was already at 10.6 percent last
year playing less than half of the snaps. If he plays 70 percent
or more of the snaps in 2018, he might finish with a 15-percent
target share as well. Tight ends have consistently been busy under
Haley, and Njoku is clearly the most dangerous playmaker of the
bunch above.
Denver OC Bill Musgrave
Musgrave (OAK) 2016
Musgrave (OAK) 2015
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
432
588
369
600
RB1
Latavius Murray
45.1%
7.3%
Latavius Murray
72.1%
8.80%
RB2
DeAndre Washington
20.1%
3.9%
Jamize Olawale
6.5%
1.80%
RB3
Jalen Richard
19.2%
6.6%
Amari Cooper
0.8%
21.70%
WR1
Michael Crabtree
0.0%
24.7%
Michael Crabtree
0.0%
24.30%
WR2
Amari Cooper
0.2%
22.4%
Seth Roberts
0.0%
9.20%
WR3
Seth Roberts
0.0%
13.1%
Clive Walford
0.0%
8.30%
TE1
Clive Walford
0.0%
8.8%
There aren't many drawbacks to doing a study like this, but one
of them is trying to figure out what to do with coordinators who
take over an offense during the middle of the season. Most "interim"
play-callers are forced to run a modified version of the offense
already in place, making it difficult to ascertain how much of
the offense is actually being influenced by their presence. (The
reason I chose to include Lazor's offense above was because he
had 14 games to make his mark. Former Denver OC Mike McCoy was
canned in Week 11 last season, so it would be unfair to put the
Broncos' failings on Musgrave's record.) Getting back to Musgrave,
there's not much we can deduce about how he likes to use running
backs despite his extensive history as an NFL play-caller. His
history suggests he prefers a bell-cow back, but he also has rarely
ever had to make a tough call in that regard (Fred Taylor and
Adrian Peterson among them). When he took over the gig last year
from McCoy, it wasn't long before C.J. Anderson saw some of his
heaviest workloads of the season. One year earlier, he appeared
to replace Murray almost on a whim. The season before that, Murray
handled an inordinate percentage of the carries in Oakland. Thus,
it would appear if Royce Freeman or Devontae Booker make a strong
statement in August, they will get at least 50 percent of the
carries and a fairly long leash to keep the starting job.
For what it's worth, Musgrave is known as a very conservative
play-caller. His offenses have typically focused in on no more
than three primary targets in the passing game and left the rest
of the pass-catchers picking up the scraps. Such an approach made
sense with the Raiders in 2015 and 2016, as Crabtree and Cooper
each saw well over 20 percent of the target share. Demaryius Thomas
and Emmanuel Sanders are certainly comparable to Crabtree and
Cooper and don't figure to have any immediate competition for
targets (much like Crabtree and Cooper), so a minimum of a 20-percent
target share for both seems very likely. Because Sanders works
so well out of the slot, Courtland Sutton figures to have a leg
up on fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton to be third in line. Even
if Sutton emerges as a quasi-full time player (based on snap count)
early on, you'll be hard-pressed to come close to Roberts' 13.1
percent target share from last season. For whatever reason, Musgrave's
offenses haven't thrown much to the running back. It's fair to
say if Washington and Richard aren't soaking up the targets, Booker
and De'Angelo Henderson probably won't either. Musgrave was the
play-caller during Kyle Rudolph's nine-touchdown season in 2012,
so he's not as anti-tight end as it might appear above. Still,
people like me hoping for a productive season from Jake Butt cannot
be encouraged by Musgrave's relative lack of use of the position
in his recent history.
Houston HC/OC Bill O'Brien
O'Brien 2017
O'Brien 2016
O'Brien 2015
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
448
516
456
577
472
613
RB1
Lamar Miller
53.1%
8.7%
Lamar Miller
58.8%
6.8%
Alfred Blue
38.8%
2.6%
RB2
D'Onta Foreman
17.4%
1.6%
Alfred Blue
21.9%
2.8%
Chris Polk
21.0%
4.6%
RB3
Alfred Blue
15.8%
1.7%
DeAndre Hopkins
0.0%
26.2%
DeAndre Hopkins
0.0%
31.3%
WR1
DeAndre Hopkins
0.0%
33.7%
Will Fuller
0.2%
15.9%
Nate Washington
0.0%
15.3%
WR2
Bruce Ellington
0.7%
11.0%
Braxton Miller
0.7%
4.9%
Cecil Shorts
2.1%
12.2%
WR3
Will Fuller
0.4%
9.7%
C.J. Fiedorowicz
0.0%
15.4%
Ryan Griffin
0.0%
5.5%
TE1
Stephen Anderson
0.0%
10.1%
Ryan Griffin
0.0%
12.8%
Contrary to popular belief, the Texans have ran the ball a lot
under O'Brien - last year's 448 carries were the fewest any of
his teams over four seasons in Houston. Just because the Texans
have seemingly found their long-term quarterback, don't look for
things to change much in that regard. Thus, no matter what happens
with Miller as it relates to potentially losing his job to D'Onta
Foreman at some point down the road, Miller is probably going
to see at least 200 carries each season over the final two years
of his contract (2018 and 2019). Foreman's recovery from his Achilles'
injury would seem to make Miller a lock for another heavy workload
in 2018, and he'll do so behind a quarterback defenses must respect
and an offensive line that should be significantly better than
the one he's had to deal with over his first two seasons. Be it
due to circumstance, injury or poor play, O'Brien has made sure
at least one other back has received a fairly significant carry
share every year as well. That's part of the reason why Foreman
- assuming he doesn't need to start the season on the PUP list
- is such a smart addition late in drafts, because he should be
serviceable enough to fill in as an emergency replacement in his
backup role and comes with the added bonus of possibly forcing
a split backfield - if he doesn't steal the starting job outright
- on a team that will probably run 450 times against this season.
O'Brien hasn't come all that close to having a full arsenal offensively
yet, but he is about as close as he's ever been entering his fifth
season at the helm. Hopkins has clearly emerged as one of the
top receivers in the league. With no less than a 26.2 percent
target share in any of the last three years, he belongs with Antonio
Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones as the receivers most
likely to push for 30 percent of his team's targets. Running backs
and tight ends haven’t been much of a factor in the passing
game in three of O'Brien's four offenses, leaving plenty of opportunities
for a second receiver to push for a 20 percent target share even
after Hopkins gets his. Fuller is the most realistic wideout to
hit that mark, although his lack of durability is easily his biggest
obstacle to doing so. The 2015 season is probably the best example
of the distribution O'Brien would like to see among his wideouts,
most notably with his third receiver finishing with a 12.2 percent
target share. Rookie Keke Coutee seems to be impressing the coaches
out of the slot and is a candidate to replicate Shorts' 2015 production
(targets and target share) in the role the team has wanted Braxton
Miller to grab. Houston appears destined to use a committee at
tight end. While Griffin and Anderson could probably be fantasy-viable
if the other wasn’t around, they figure to cancel each other
out in this offense.
Indianapolis OC Frank Reich
In title, Reich has four seasons of NFL experience as an offensive
coordinator. In reality, we know very little about his play-calling
tendencies. HC Doug Pederson called the shots in 2016 and 2017
with the Eagles. In 2014 and 2015, Reich called the plays for
San Diego but did
so using then-HC Mike McCoy's scheme. It's fairly obvious
from April's draft that Pederson's committee approach at running
back rubbed off on Reich at least a little bit, and it should
be noted the carry shares for Philadelphia's top three backs over
the last two seasons have been 36.6-15.6-14.8 (2017) and 35.5-21.5-17.6
(2016). Owners should expect Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim
Hines (likely in that order) to be the men who fill those slots
in 2018.
T.Y. Hilton was already a good bet to bounce back this season,
assuming Andrew Luck can play all season. Indianapolis' depth
chart at receiver almost guarantees he'll at least match and probably
exceed Alshon Jeffery's 21.6 percent target share from a year
ago. Eric Ebron was signed in free agency to play the Zach Ertz
role in Reich's offense, although asking him to assume Ertz's
19.8 (2017) or 17.5 (2016) percent of the target share is a tall
order for a player who hasn't proven to be very consistent as
a pro. Ryan Grant could be asked to mimic Nelson Agholor, who
finished with a 17.1 percent target share with the Eagles last
year. Beyond that, there is too much uncertainty - both with Reich
calling plays in his own scheme and among the receivers vying
for the starting job opposite Hilton - to draw many solid conclusions.
Jacksonville OC Nathaniel Hackett
Hackett (JAC)
2017
Hackett (BUF) 2014
Hackett (BUF) 2013
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
527
517
402
572
546
519
RB1
Leonard Fournette
50.9%
9.3%
Fred Jackson
35.1%
15.7%
Fred Jackson
37.7%
12.5%
RB2
Chris Ivory
21.3%
5.4%
Anthony Dixon
26.1%
1.6%
C.J. Spiller
37.0%
7.9%
WR1
Marqise Lee
0.2%
18.6%
Sammy Watkins
0.5%
22.4%
Steve Johnson
0.2%
19.5%
WR2
Keelan Cole
0.0%
16.1%
Robert Woods
0.0%
18.2%
Robert Woods
0.4%
16.4%
WR3
Allen Hurns
0.0%
10.8%
Chris Hogan
0.0%
10.7%
T.J. Graham
0.7%
11.2%
TE1
Marcedes Lewis
0.0%
9.3%
Scott Chandler
0.0%
12.2%
Scott Chandler
0.0%
15.6%
Although Hackett's history suggests he may favor a committee
backfield, there's very little mystery to sort through with the
Jaguars. Fournette missed three full games, played hurt the second
half of the season and still finished with a 50.9 percent carry
share. If he can play all 16 games and stay healthier in 2018,
expect that number to be in the 65 percent neighborhood. The biggest
question to solve at the position is whether or not Jacksonville
is finally willing to unleash Corey Grant on a larger scale. Hackett
told the media in late May that Grant "is
a guy we've got to get out there," presumably after the
26-year-old back flashed for the umpteenth time in limited action
during the AFC Championship. If the Jaguars truly want to "change
the pace" with a back on their roster, the choice needs to
be Grant and not T.J. Yeldon.
Hackett hasn't been afraid to get his main back highly involved
in the passing game, as an aging Jackson posted target shares
in 2013 and 2014 - approaching Le'Veon Bell territory as a receiver.
Fournette is a candidate for at least 12 percent just at the pace
he was on as a rookie. Each of the three offenses Hackett oversaw
from beginning to end (2013, 2014 and 2017) saw three receivers
amass target shares of at least 10.8 percent, which is a less
common that one might assume. Based on the charts above, owners
might think another 20-15-10 line will be in store this season.
Lee will be the favorite to see the most targets once again, but
I'm not sure that's a given. Keelan Cole may simply be too good
not to be on equal footing with Lee. Donte Moncrief is getting
paid too much to not be considered at least the second receiver.
Dede Westbrook remains on the roster, while rookie D.J. Chark
is going to be hard not to target when he's in the game. Last
but not least, Austin Seferian-Jenkins will probably be no worse
than third on the team in overall targets. It may not be a stretch
for the Jaguars to have only one receiver/tight end have a target
share above 12 percent while four or five others finish between
eight and 12 percent.
Kansas City HC Andy Reid
Reid 2017
Reid 2016
Reid 2015
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
432
588
411
536
435
463
RB1
Kareem Hunt
67.2%
11.9%
Spencer Ware
52.1%
7.8%
Charcandrick West
36.8%
7.3%
RB2
Charcandrick West
4.4%
6.4%
Charcandrick West
21.4%
6.3%
Spencer Ware
16.6%
1.3%
WR1
Tyreek Hill
4.2%
19.9%
Tyreek Hill
5.8%
15.5%
Jeremy Maclin
0.7%
26.8%
WR2
Albert Wilson
0.7%
11.7%
Jeremy Maclin
0.2%
14.2%
Albert Wilson
1.1%
12.3%
WR3
Demarcus Robinson
0.0%
7.4%
Chris Conley
0.0%
12.9%
Chris Conley
0.0%
6.7%
TE1
Travis Kelce
0.5%
23.1%
Travis Kelce
0.2%
21.8%
Travis Kelce
0.0%
22.2%
Considering there was a seven-game stretch in which Hunt recorded
11 or fewer carries four times, it almost boggles the mind Hunt
still managed a 67.2 percent carry share. With Ware not guaranteed
to be ready to be ready for training camp, it seems like a relatively
safe bet Hunt could go over 70 percent in 2018 since West and
Damien Williams don't bring anything to the table Hunt doesn't
already possess. There's no guarantee a healthy Ware would put
much of a dent in Hunt's workload at this point anyway, as Reid
has already stated he liked the fact the second-year back finished
with 325 touches last season. Reid seemed hell-bent on making
sure West was involved in two-minute and third-down situations
before handing play-calling duties over to Matt Nagy late in 2017.
Nagy featured Hunt before accepting the head-coaching job with
the Bears after the season, leaving perspective fantasy owners
of Hunt to wonder if Reid is going to play his usual game of forgetting
he has a game-breaker at running back four or five times per season.
As a whole, however, Reid finds a way to get his backs in the
neighborhood of 300 touches on a fairly regular basis.
Perhaps the most notable observation is that Kelce has easily
seeded a 20 percent target share in each of the last three seasons,
which is an incredible number for a tight end. That mark could
dip a little bit in 2018 if only because Kansas City's offense
is more loaded than at any other time during Reid's tenure. Hill
and Sammy Watkins should each exceed 15 percent and Hunt may come
close. All four players can be considered matchup nightmares,
so while I expect this team to resemble the 2016 Chiefs more than
any other team I listed above, I don't recall Reid ever having
this much receiving talent on the same team at the same time.
Better yet from a fantasy perspective, Kansas City's defense is
a good bet to be weaker this season, so it is reasonable that
Reid's new starting quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) will be the
first Chief to attempt 600 passes in a season in Reid's five years
at the helm.
Los Angeles
Chargers HC Anthony Lynn/OC Ken Whisenhunt
Whisenhunt (SD)
2017
Whisenhunt (TEN)
2016
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
419
570
374
556
RB1
Melvin Gordon
67.8%
14.6%
Melvin Gordon
67.9%
10.3%
RB2
Austin Ekeler
11.2%
6.1%
Kenneth Farrow
16.0%
2.9%
WR1
Keenan Allen
0.5%
27.9%
Tyrell Williams
0.0%
21.4%
WR2
Tyrell Williams
0.0%
12.1%
Dontrelle Inman
0.0%
17.4%
WR3
Travis Benjamin
3.1%
10.9%
Travis Benjamin
0.5%
13.5%
TE1
Hunter Henry
0.0%
10.9%
Antonio Gates
0.0%
16.7%
TE2
Antonio Gates
0.0%
9.1%
Hunter Henry
0.0%
9.5%
Gordon only played 13 games in 2016 and played hurt toward the
end of 2017, but it is clear he is the unquestioned workhorse
in this backfield as Whisenhunt has given him essentially the
same workload in consecutive years under different head coaches.
The Chargers' offensive line remains a work in progress, but this
year's unit should be the best of Gordon's career if it can avoid
the injuries that have plagued it over the last few seasons. With
a capable "satellite back" like Ekeler and proven college
workhorse like Justin Jackson, Gordon may see a small dip in his
overall touches, but it should be minimal.
One of the first things Whisenhunt did following the loss of
Henry this spring was imply Gordon and Ekeler's role in the passing
game could expand. While it seems unlikely Gordon can go much
higher than last year's 83 targets, it is unlikely he'll see significantly
fewer. Ekeler could see the biggest increase, as 35 targets is
a low number for someone with his playmaking ability. He's a good
bet to finish in the eight to 10 percent neighborhood in 2018.
Another way the Chargers can make up for the targets left behind
by Henry and Gates is to rely even more heavily on Allen in the
slot. As the passing game's only established (and healthy) middle-of-the-field
pass-catcher and Philip Rivers' favorite target, Allen could beat
last year's 27.9 target share. Tyrell Williams proved in 2016
he can handle a plus-20 target share; he's a virtual lock to see
more than 12.1 percent in 2018. Benjamin will remain involved
in the offense simply because he is so explosive, but Los Angeles
will probably give his share last season to Mike Williams and
make Benjamin more of a situational deep threat who will focus
more on returning punts. The big reason why every Charger can
expect a similar or increased target share this year is because
the tight end position accounted for 21.2 percent of the targets
last season. Virgil Green is currently the top option on the depth
chart, and a target share of anything more than six or seven percent
for him would be a huge upset.
Miami HC Adam Gase
Gase (MIA) 2017
Gase (MIA) 2016
Gase (CHI) 2015
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
360
586
404
467
468
519
RB1
Jay Ajayi
38.3%
3.4%
Jay Ajayi
64.4%
7.5%
Matt Forte
46.6%
11.2%
RB2
Kenyan Drake
36.9%
8.2%
Damien Williams
8.7%
6.9%
Jeremy Langford
31.6%
8.1%
WR1
Jarvis Landry
0.3%
27.5%
Jarvis Landry
1.2%
28.1%
Alshon Jeffery
0.0%
18.1%
WR2
Kenny Stills
0.0%
17.9%
DeVante Parker
0.0%
18.6%
Marquess Wilson
0.0%
9.8%
WR3
DeVante Parker
0.0%
16.4%
Kenny Stills
0.0%
17.3%
Eddie Royal
0.2%
9.6%
TE1
Julius Thomas
0.0%
10.6%
Dion Sims
0.0%
7.5%
Martellus Bennett
0.0%
15.4%
Due to injury on some occasions and performance other times,
Gase doesn't have a great history starting and ending the season
with the same running back (technically, Knowshon Moreno in 2013
with Denver - Gase's first coordinator job - is the only one who
has done so). That's obviously bad news for Drake, who will be
looking to buck the trend started by the likes of Montee Ball,
Arian Foster and Ajayi. The problem is C.J. Anderson's second
half in 2014 and Ajayi's 2016 season are proof Gase has no problem
riding one back if he proves himself worthy of the responsibility.
Unfortunately, Frank Gore refuses to go away as he enters his
14th season in the league. Gore hasn't finished with fewer than
200 carries in a season since his rookie year in 2005, and the
Dolphins' offseason seems to be a clear indication Gase isn't
satisfied at the position. So as tempting as it is to buy heavy
into Drake as a value pick at his 4.04 ADP, Gase's history suggests
it is probably more likely he will ceding plenty of work on passing
downs to Gore - long recognized as one of the best at his position
in pass pro - and possibly even at the goal line.
Trying to get a predictive read on the Miami passing game isn't
much easier than the running game. Gase's offense with the Bears
was the only one in which running backs combined for a 20 percent
target share, so history suggests receivers and tight ends will
have over 80 percent of the targets to themselves. The Dolphins
have tried to shoehorn Parker into the No. 1 role in the last
two years, only to watch him get hurt and have Landry hog the
targets. The free-agent additions of Danny Amendola and Albert
Wilson may give Gase the deepest receiving corps he's enjoyed
since his history-making offense with the Broncos in 2013. However,
that's a problem for fantasy in the unlikely event everybody stays
healthy. What does seem likely is that Parker and Stills will
attract target shares no lower than 16 percent, if only because
Amendola and Wilson may not absorb all of the looks Landry got.
If that's the case, then Parker and Stills may both go over 20
percent. There's also a likely scenario in which rookie Mike Gesicki
picks up those loose targets in addition to the 10.6 percent share
Thomas is leaving behind. No one should be surprised if the shares
in this passing game are split in 2018 as follows: 22 (Parker)-20
(Stills)-14 (Amendola, assuming only 2-3 missed games)-12 (Gesicki)-11
(Wilson). That breakdown would leave 21 percent for the running
backs and backup tight ends to share.
New England OC Josh McDaniels
McDaniels 2017
McDaniels 2016
McDaniels 2015
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
448
584
482
546
383
624
RB1
Dion Lewis
40.2%
6.0%
LeGarrette Blount
62.0%
1.5%
LeGarrette Blount
43.1%
1.1%
RB2
Mike Gillislee
23.2%
0.2%
Dion Lewis
13.3%
4.4%
Brandon Bolden
16.4%
4.8%
RB3
Rex Burkhead
14.3%
6.2%
James White
8.1%
15.8%
Dion Lewis
12.8%
8.0%
RB4
James White
9.6%
12.3%
Julian Edelman
2.5%
29.1%
Julian Edelman
0.8%
14.1%
WR1
Brandin Cooks
2.0%
19.5%
Chris Hogan
0.6%
10.6%
Danny Amendola
0.5%
13.9%
WR2
Danny Amendola
0.0%
14.7%
Malcolm Mitchell
0.0%
8.8%
Brandon LaFell
0.5%
11.9%
WR3
Chris Hogan
0.7%
10.1%
Martellus Bennett
0.4%
13.4%
Rob Gronkowski
0.0%
19.2%
TE2
Rob Gronkowski
0.0%
18.0%
Rob Gronkowski
0.0%
7.0%
Scott Chandler
0.0%
6.7%
Among the many fun facts an analyst could use to entertain readers
regarding the Patriots' backfield last year is this nugget: Gillislee
received only six carries after Week 8, was inactive for the bulk
of the second half of the season and was still far and away second
on the team in carry share. Another fun fact: 27.8 percent of
Lewis' carries came in Weeks 16 and 17. Subtract those carries
and Lewis ends the season with only 26 more rushing attempts than
Gillislee. In the five weeks (Weeks 10-14) both Burkhead and Lewis
were active and finished the game following Gillislee's banishment
to the doghouse, Burkhead was actually the more productive fantasy
back and touched the ball one less time than Lewis. There are
some people who would suggest the selection of Sony Michel is
going to lead to more Week 16-17 Lewis-like usage because he is
a first-round pick and less of the Week 10-14 committee. Others
believe Michel is the next Alvin Kamara, but White's role in the
offense isn't just going away. The beauty and the ugliness (from
a fantasy perspective) of the Patriots' offense is that it morphs
from game to game and season to season. Michel may very well end
up being the lead back in this offense … or we can rely
on 10 or so years of evidence that suggests he will team up with
Burkhead on running downs and give way to White on a high percentage
of passing downs.
Edelman's four-game suspension is going to skew his target share
numbers when we revisit this column next summer, but this much
has been consistently true over his last four healthy seasons
(2013-16): he's going to see at least nine targets per game when
he is on the field. During Gronkowski's three last healthy years
(2014, 2015 and 2017), he's averaged eight targets. That means
in any given game, Edelman (20-plus), Gronkowski (18-plus) and
White (12-plus) can be expected to eat up over half of the targets.
Why is that notable? We haven't discussed an outside receiver
yet. Hogan is the only perimeter receiver who already has some
level of chemistry with Tom Brady, and he has to be considered
the best candidate to fill the 19.5 percent target share left
behind by Cooks. Jordan Matthews should be considered the heavy
favorite to replace Edelman in the slot while he is gone, and
he is also likely the best bet to replace Hogan's 10.1 target
share from 2017 once Edelman returns. However, given the unpredictability
of the New England offense, it's also just as likely Matthews
excepts a bit role once Edelman completes his suspension while
Michel and Burkhead join White in the 10 percent target share
club for Patriots' running backs.
New York
Jets OC Jeremy Bates
John Morton (NYJ)
2017
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
427
495
RB1
Bilal Powell
41.7%
6.7%
RB2
Matt Forte
24.1%
9.1%
RB3
Elijah McGuire
20.6%
5.3%
WR1
Robby Anderson
0.7%
23.0%
WR2
Jermaine Kearse
0.0%
20.6%
TE1
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
0.0%
14.9%
Bates' first and only coordinator job was a one-year stint -
and a largely unproductive one - with Seattle in 2010. According
to Jets LT Kelvin Beachum, Bates will not overhaul the scheme
set in place by Morton last season and run a "quasi-West
Coast type of offense" in 2018 with perhaps more emphasis
on outside zone runs than last year's attack. I have chosen to
include the Jets' breakdown from last year above, if only as a
point of reference. Because Bates obviously will add his own flavor
to the offense and have his own idiosyncrasies, it seems pointless
to try to reach for conclusions based on an offense run by another
play-caller last year.
Oakland HC Jon Gruden
Gruden (TB) 2007
Gruden (TB) 2007
Gruden (TB) 2006
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
451
549
449
476
404
528
RB1
Warrick Dunn
41.2%
12.4%
Earnest Graham
49.4%
14.5%
Cadillac Williams
55.7%
8.3%
RB2
Earnest Graham
29.3%
6.0%
Michael Pittman
15.1%
8.2%
Mike Alstott
14.9%
7.2%
RB3
Cadillac Williams
14.0%
1.3%
Cadillac Williams
12.0%
1.1%
Michael Pittman
12.4%
14.4%
WR1
Antonio Bryant
0.4%
25.1%
Joey Galloway
0.2%
20.6%
Joey Galloway
0.5%
27.1%
WR2
Michael Clayton
0.4%
11.1%
Ike Hilliard
0.2%
18.1%
Michael Clayton
1.2%
12.3%
WR3
Ike Hilliard
0.2%
10.6%
Michael Clayton
1.1%
8.4%
Ike Hilliard
0.0%
10.4%
TE1
Jerramy Stevens
0.0%
10.7%
Alex Smith
0.0%
11.1%
Alex Smith
0.0%
10.0%
Much like I did with Bates above, I am providing the breakdown
of Gruden's last three seasons for reference purposes only. Assuming
Gruden hasn't changed at all in 10 years away from coaching would
be a huge mistake, although there are a few things we may be able
to surmise from his time in Tampa Bay (2002-08) and Oakland (1998-2001).
With very few exceptions (Charlie Garner in 2001 and Cadillac
Williams in 2005), Gruden typically had a clear division of labor
at running back. There was typically a large gap between the carry
shares of the No. 1 back and No. 2, while the No. 2 back typically
made a sizable contribution as a receiver. Referring to the three-year
breakdown above, running backs often saw more than 20 percent
of the target share - something I would expect to continue moving
forward, which obviously bodes well for Jalen Richard and/or DeAndre
Washington. Gruden does believe in running the ball, which should
be obvious from the high number of carries in the three-year sample
provided above.
Gruden was among the best play designers in the game during his
first act as a coach and was able to adapt his offense when necessary
to cater to a number of different types of No. 1 receivers with
the Bucs (Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Michael Clayton,
Galloway and Bryant). Amari Cooper is probably most like Bryant
from the bunch, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he matched Bryant's
25 percent target share with Michael Crabtree out of the picture.
Projecting much past that at receiver seems like a worthless exercise,
as even a 33-year-old Jordy Nelson should be better than any second
receiver above. Gruden also made the most out of average tight
ends in his offense, as Stevens and Smith were both athletic but
not the most consistent. That's good news for Jared Cook, who
could push for a 12 percent target share.
Pittsburgh OC Randy Fichtner
Prior to his promotion this offseason, Fichtner was the quarterbacks
coach for the Steelers since 2010. In the three previous seasons,
he was the team's receivers coach. The entirety of his offensive
coordinating experience comes from the college game. He served
as Arkansas State's play-caller from 1997-2000 and Memphis' offensive
coordinator from 2001-06.
Tennessee OC Matt LaFleur
Sean McVay/LaFleur
(LAR) 2017
Pos
Player
Carry
Share
Target
Share
454
510
RB1
Todd Gurley
61.5%
17.1%
RB2
Malcolm Brown
13.9%
2.2%
WR1
Cooper Kupp
0.0%
18.4%
WR2
Robert Woods
0.4%
16.7%
WR3
Sammy Watkins
0.0%
13.7%
TE1
Tyler Higbee
0.0%
8.8%
Despite carrying the title of offensive coordinator with the
Rams last season, LaFleur took a back seat to McVay, as the latter
called the shots on offense in 2017. The first (and only other)
time LaFleur was the play-caller for a team was for Division II
Ashland in 2007. Fortunately, we should be able to get a general
sense of what he is going to be like as an offensive coordinator.
From 2008-13 and 2015-16, LaFleur worked under Kyle Shanahan first
in Houston, then in Washington and again in Atlanta - mostly as
his quarterbacks coach. It's very likely Shanahan's affection
for outside zone runs found a home in LaFleur's playbook as well.
RPOs (run-pass options) figure to be a bigger part of the Titans'
attack, if only because Mariota is comparable athletically to
Robert Griffin. LaFleur was the position coach for Griffin in
2012 when he and Alfred Morris took the league by storm with RPOs.
There's a strong argument to be made Mariota and Derrick Henry/Dion
Lewis bring more to the table. The Titans also have a more talented
offensive line and a better receiving corps than did the Redskins.
It should be interesting to see if any of this comes to fruition,
but the general assumption should be that LaFleur will take after
Shanahan much more than any other coach in his background.
With that said, it would be a mistake to dismiss LaFleur's influence
on McVay's offense. McVay raved about LaFleur's
impact on the offense in early October last year, so perhaps
Shanahan's knack for being able to mold his system to fit the
strengths of his players is something LaFleur will have the ability
to do as well.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.