Best Scheme Fit: Unique size
and speed combination make him a great fit for an offense that
will use him heavily on back shoulder throws, go routes and in
the red zone. Lack of explosiveness in and out of his cuts make
him a poor fit for an offense that relies heavily on West Coast
principles (getting the ball out quick on slants and outs, for
example).
Strengths
An instant mismatch for virtually any defensive back with
his huge frame; legitimate vertical threat who uses long strides
and build-up speed to create separation and size to shield defender
from the ball at the catch point. (1:34, 1:41, 2:08, 3:29, 4:11, 5:21)
Can absolutely embarrass defensive backs who try to tackle
him in the open field. (0:01, 0:18, 0:48, 1:42, 2:08, 2:35, 3:29)
In his comfort zone on the back-shoulder fade, almost as
if he knows his defender has no chance to stop him. (1:34,
1:46, 2:18, 3:29)
Massive hand size and 83 7/8" wingspan plays a major
role in allowing him to haul in some of the best highlight-reel
catches any college receiver could hope for. (0:01,
5:08)
Has an incredible knack for knowing where his feet are in
relation to the boundaries. (0:00,
0:01)
Lined up at all three receiver spots on a regular basis (split
end, flanker, slot).
Has the potential to be a dominant blocker and flashes it
from time to time, probably just needs a position coach to drive
home the point a bit more. (1:23, 1:58)
Concerns
Far too many focus drops (0:31,
2:07, 5:52, 6:04); 11 drops on 71 catchable
targets per Pro Football Focus.
Needs to show more urgency in and out of his breaks and throughout
his route. (1:04, 2:41, 3:49, 7:14)
Mixes the good (2:08)
with the bad (2:28) in terms of tracking the ball,
sometimes within minutes of each other.
As is the case with most tall receivers, he struggles to
sink his hips in order to make sharp cuts/breaks at the top
of his stem, making it much easier for defensive backs to recover
and/or run the route for him. (2:15, 2:41, 6:13, 7:14)
Inability to turn many short passes into big plays accentuates
his lack of quickness and how important getting him downfield
is to his ability to break tackles.
Bottom Line
It seems as if every top receiver in this class has at least one
concerning trait that makes projecting him a future NFL star almost
impossible. In Butler's case, he dropped 15.5 percent of his catchable
targets last season and was average at best when asked to work
within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. While drops are often
an overrated part of the equation when evaluating receivers at
any level, it is simply not acceptable for a receiver with Butler's
massive hands and considerable playmaking ability to average a
drop once every 6.5 targets. There are also too many times in
which he throttles down on a route, which is another unforgivable
sin.
As bad as all that sounds, I'm not sure there is a better receiver
after the catch - at least when picking up yards after contact
- available this spring. Since I started doing these draft profiles
in 2013, Butler may be the best receiver prospect I have evaluated
in terms of not only breaking one tackle but multiple attempts
on the same play. To that end, PFF recorded 16 broken tackles
on his 60 catches in 2018, which is an absurd rate for a receiver
and even more impressive when one considers he did the bulk of
his damage on routes at least 20 yards down the field (there's
usually not a ton of defenders that far downfield, minimizing
the number of chances that a receiver has to break tackles in
the first place). With that said, it is important to bear in mind
the Big 12 has evolved into more of a defense-optional league
in recent years, so it can be debated how much of Butler's success
as a tackle-breaker is his own doing and how much of it is a product
of poor tackling.
Butler has as good of a chance as any of the receivers we have
covered so far of overcoming his current shortcomings and becoming
a WR1 in the NFL because I think his "problems" are
among the easiest to fix. Regular post-practice work with the
JUGS machine and a good position coach should be able to smooth
over the rough edges in his game mentioned above. That doesn't
necessarily mean he will be a perennial threat to catch 80 to
100 passes, but his size and speed are could allow him to push
for 1,000 yards and/or 10 touchdowns in the right offense. An
A.J. Green comp is ambitious but reasonable (in the long term),
although I think Green was ready to be a lead receiver the day
he was drafted; Butler's not there yet and could take a while
to get there. Green has also always been a bit quicker and lighter
on his feet than Butler is now. With that said, I'd like to see
this rookie begin his NFL career in a role similar to the one
the Steelers had planned for Martavis Bryant before he wore out
his welcome. Butler is also going to need his offensive coordinator
to help him, as in making sure most of his routes don't require
him to stop and restart or cut very often. Given his physical
dimensions, this is probably an area in which he will not see
much improvement as a pro. Nevertheless, if the bulk of what Butler
is asked to do is work the middle of the field, the sidelines
and down the field, I could see him enjoying an Alshon Jeffery-like
career.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.