Offseason reports can often be the equivalent of having a candy
bar or bag of chips 30 minutes before a meal. We know they aren't
good for us, but we can't help ourselves. Beat writers can sometimes
get too close to the team and feed us optimism when what we need
is honesty. However, when they do their jobs well, they are often
the only "inside" source we have as fantasy owners who
can unearth a valuable nugget or spot a trend during the spring
that proves to be prophetic. Given the wealth of information at
our disposal and the number of people who want to be the first to
"get the scoop" nowadays, we have to sift through a lot
of the former in order to get to the latter.
Each year, I attempt to canvas the NFL landscape once offseason
workouts have concluded, in hopes I can make an observation or
two of my own that nudges readers in the right direction. As I
have done since I started "Early Observations" in 2009,
I’m going to try to provide a respectable opinion on how
the offseason buzz from all 32 teams translates to fantasy owners
over the next two weeks. The focus will be on potential up-and-comers
rather than established stars since it is usually the former that
often gives owners the push they need to win fantasy titles.
This week, we’ll take a look at what is buzzworthy in the
AFC: Note: All ADPs are for 12-team
leagues courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator as of June 24.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Jackson set an NFL
record for a quarterback by running 147 times last season despite
not getting his first start until Week 10. He actually managed
to complete 58.2 percent of his passes after taking over for Joe
Flacco, but few ever got to see what he is truly capable of because
the Ravens refused to open up the offense. Jackson was further
hurt by Baltimore keeping former OC Marty Mornhinweg in charge
rather than make the change to new OC Greg Roman, whose reputation
was built on his work earlier this decade with Colin Kaepernick
and Tyrod Taylor. The playoff loss to the Chargers was one of
the few times the Ravens gave the former Heisman Trophy winner
a chance to show off more of his repertoire, and that only happened
after Baltimore spent the first three-plus quarters stubbornly
running into a wall and falling into a 23-3 hole - an obstacle
the Ravens nearly overcame the final nine-plus minutes when they
had little to lose.
Expect the latter version of the offense to become more commonplace
in 2019, if only because Roman will be in charge. Yes, Baltimore
will still want to lead the league in rushing - likely by riding
Mark Ingram and Justice Hill while getting roughly eight to 10
carries per game from Jackson - but not at the extreme rate it
did from Weeks 11-17 (45 attempts per contest). Regardless of
what anyone thinks about Jackson's accuracy, quarterbacks who
run the ball as often as he did as a rookie are going to see their
accuracy suffer in part because they are being asked to deliver
pinpoint passes when handling the workload of a feature back (Jackson
averaged 17 rushing attempts over the final seven weeks of the
season.) It is reasonable to assume that Roman will understand
this concept better than Mornhinweg did. Baltimore's emphasis
on speed in the draft was a clear sign the team is ready to embrace
a spread offense similar to the one Jackson ran at Louisville.
While it may not do anything for Jackson's longevity, it figures
to be very beneficial for fantasy owners. If Marquise Brown and/or
Miles Boykin end up being quick studies and Jackson can avoid
interceptions - much like he did for the bulk of his time as the
starter - there's low-end QB1 potential with him.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Jones
didn't really start living up to his potential until around Week
10 when he kicked off an inefficient yet productive seven-game
stretch, catching only half of his 54 targets but scoring six
times on those 27 receptions. He's reportedly added 8-10 pounds
of lean muscle mass to his upper body and was a full participant
during the offseason program, but is there any guarantee he will
be able to take the next step in his development? Not exactly.
Per Pro Football Focus, Jones did the bulk of his work inside
10 yards - although five of his touchdowns came on passes that
traveled more than 20 yards in the air. Cole Beasley was signed
to a contract with an annual average value of over $7 million
to handle the short stuff, while the AAV of John Brown's contract
is $9 million, suggesting the Bills want those two players handling
the short/intermediate and deep areas of the field, respectively.
Let's also not forget Robert Foster, who was one of only 19 players
in the league to amass 500 receiving yards from Week 10 on, doing
so on only 25 catches. While one can easily question how much
Buffalo really improved its talent at receiver with the additions
of Brown and Beasley, it is fair to say there are more legitimate
mouths to feed in Buffalo than in 2018. Given Josh Allen's scattershot
accuracy, Jones will need to do better than catch 50 percent of
his targets if he has any hope of becoming a sure-fire starter
for the Bills in 2019, much less someone capable of matching his
team-leading totals of 56 catches, 652 yards receiving and seven
receiving TDs.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: There's
been virtually no news about potential under-the-radar players
in Cincinnati this spring, which is both a blessing (for a franchise
once infamous for offseason problems) and a curse (for fantasy
owners hoping a deep sleeper will emerge). Thus, we are left with
a veteran likely spending his final season as a Bengal and hoping
to increase his value on the free-agent market. New HC Zac Taylor
and OC Brian Callahan have indicated the plan is for Cincinnati
to spread out the carries early in order to keep Joe Mixon fresh
late for late in the season. Since Trayveon Williams was likely
drafted to replace Bernard next season and fellow sixth-round
pick Rodney Anderson may or may not be ready for training camp
as he continues to recover from ACL surgery, it should mean a
respectable workload for Bernard during the early part of the
season.
While owners can never know when an injury to the starter will
occur, they can prepare for it. This is not only accomplished
by Mixon owners handcuffing their backup, but also by zero-running
back enthusiasts who do their best to nab some of the best second-string
runners on the market before the owners of the starters are comfortable
drafting handcuffs. Although his numbers in recent years may not
reflect it, Bernard is one of the better backups in the league.
He showed it once again in Weeks 3 and 4 last season when he started
in place of an injured Mixon and finished as the overall RB8 and
RB9 in those respective weeks. Bernard is almost always going
to provide a safe floor when he starts because he is so good in
the passing game, so while Anderson and/or Williams could easily
move into the early-down role should Mixon get hurt again at some
point, Bernard figures to remain the lead back in that theoretical
situation. The 27-year-old is going undrafted in many leagues,
which is understandable given his minimal role behind Nixon but
hard to comprehend when he has a much better track record of staying
healthy and offers more upside than someone like Chris Thompson
(14.05 ADP). Bernard has never averaged less than eight PPR fantasy
points in any of his five seasons, so he at least deserves some
more respect than he's currently getting. Will he be a league-winner?
Probably not. But can he be a fill-in fantasy starter if/when
Mixon is unable to play? Absolutely. That kind of upside is worth
stashing.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Fantasy
owners of Johnson should be rooting for Hilliard to carry over
his spring momentum into the summer and early fall because it
appears that will be the only way Johnson will not be on the roster
for the season opener. The mere fact Cleveland used Hilliard out
of the slot during OTAs is a clear sign the Browns are willing
to be convinced they already have Johnson's replacement on the
roster. However, it stands to reason they want to see Hilliard
impress during training camp and the preseason before they trade
their disgruntled back. Johnson can see the writing on the wall,
as he'll only have about eight games to play before a proven feature
back in Kareem Hunt returns to action. The ex-Miami Hurricane
star knows he deserves better, and there's probably a handful
of teams that he could start for in the NFL.
Considering Hilliard made last year's roster as an undrafted
rookie free agent and has impressed both HC Freddie Kitchens (last
year) and RB coach Stump Mitchell (this year), there's reason
to believe Hilliard isn't getting the usual coach-speak that usually
get aimed at a player like Johnson to encourage to get with the
program. As a result, early drafters would do well to stash Johnson
and play the waiting game. Perhaps his next employer views him
much like former HC Hue Jackson did and will not give him more
than 160 touches. Even if that is the case, Johnson has multiple
60-catch seasons on his resume and can work out of the slot. If
he is, in fact, traded at some point this season, there's a good
chance he'll land in a spot that will allow to achieve and maintain
flex value.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Owners
fell all over themselves trying to pick up Sutton off waivers
in the minutes and hours after Demaryius Thomas was traded to
the Texans last season in anticipation he would build upon his
promising start. Alas, things didn't quite work out as hoped,
especially after it appeared he was thrust into the lead role
following Emmanuel Sanders' season-ending Achilles injury prior
to Week 14. To be clear, a 42-704-4 line is not exactly a disappointing
season for a rookie receiver, but Sutton did not fare well when
he became the focus of opposing secondaries. He also did not produce
much after the catch, as his 3.9 yards after the catch ranked
27th among NFL receivers who played all 16 games, per STATS, LLC.
To that end, the SMU product enlisted the help of Tony Villani
of XPE Sports prior to offseason workouts with an eye toward "resetting
and rebuilding as much as it was about improving his explosiveness."
Sutton intends to return to Villani during the summer to "take
a more refined approach" to his route-running and football-specific
training. Perhaps just as importantly, he is also seeking the
counsel of Anquan Boldin. Not only is Boldin's purpose to build
on Villani's training, but he might be able to offer some information
on the nuances of one of his former quarterbacks, Joe Flacco,
who will be largely responsible for Sutton's statistical growth
this season. While nothing is guaranteed when it comes to quarterback-receiver
combinations with no previous history of working together, Flacco
and Sutton's strengths complement each other well. Sutton's 10.02
ADP makes him a strong value pick as a player with fantasy WR2
upside. With Sanders unlikely to recapture his previous form anytime
soon, Sutton is in great shape to become the team's No. 1 receiver
if all of his focused offseason work pays off.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Naturally,
HC Bill O'Brien waited until May to tell the world Foreman's Achilles
injury was "significant" when he could have done so
at any point in 2018, although it was always going to be difficult
for the 23-year-old to do much upon his return last season even
if he enjoyed a miraculous recovery. It's anyone's guess whether
Foreman actually believes he is feeling better entering this year
than he did beginning any season in college (and possibly even
high school) or not, but the mere fact he is willing to say it
publicly is notable. O'Brien recently praised his 230-pound back's
conditioning and believes he turned in a "good spring."
If there is any upside to Foreman's injury, it might be that he
isn't overly reliant on quickness and the time off may have given
him the entire year to recharge. If he begins the season anywhere
close to where he was when he got hurt late in 2017, Houston will
get the 1-2 punch O'Brien has long desired and Lamar Miller may
not crack 200 rushing attempts. It's also reasonable Foreman could
split carries at some point and assume goal-line work. In this
offense, that kind of workload and scoring upside would enable
him to be a highly serviceable flex option.
Coutee's athletic testing numbers did not exactly suggest he
was a special prospect, but Houston obviously liked what it saw
from him in practice on the rare occasion he was relatively healthy.
He set an NFL record for most catches in a debut (11 in Week 4)
and wore out the Colts for a second time in a remarkably similar
performance in the playoffs. The problems: he played a total of
seven games (including the postseason) and mustered only 17 receptions
in the five contests against teams other than Indianapolis. Watson
doesn't want to see a repeat of that and believes Coutee is "playing
with a lot more confidence" and "playing a lot faster"
than he was as a rookie before adding "anytime he's on the
field, you have to find a way to get him the ball." Quarterbacks
typically are not shy about showing their receivers some love,
but Watson's comments seem to indicate he isn't lacking for confidence
in his slot receiver. His 10.04 ADP is more of a reflection of
last year's injury woes than an indictment on his talent, so he's
yet another candidate who figures to be a solid value pick in
the mid-to-late rounds. There's probably not room for two 100-catch
receivers in the Houston offense, but Coutee could push for 70
or 80 if he can play all 16 games based almost solely on how willing
the team was to force-feed him the ball as a rookie.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Barring
a Victor Cruz-like three-touchdown game (circa 2010) in the preseason,
owners aren't going to have any interest in using a draft pick
on a third-string tight end. Honestly, I can't say I blame them.
Here's the problem: the Colts - and even his peers in the tight
end room - can't stop talking about him. “Watching him grow
is like watching your son become something special. He’s
gonna play such a huge role this year," Eric Ebron said in
early June. Alie-Cox took advantage of the absences of both Ebron
and Jack Doyle during offseason workouts to run with the first
team. It has led to "unbridled excitement" in regards
to what Indianapolis thinks he can become. The Athletic's Stephen
Holder stated he didn't see Alie-Cox drop a pass in the spring.
Holder also made it sound like he is pushing Doyle as the best
blocking tight end on the team and boasts similar athleticism
to Ebron; he is already bigger (6-5, 267) and stronger than either
one of them.
Perhaps Alie-Cox ends up being more of a dynasty stash than redraft
option, but his star is on the rise. Doyle is due $5.15 million
in 2020 heading into what will be his age-30 season. It's nearly
impossible to feel good about Doyle's long-term prospects when
one considers his age, his offseason hip surgery and the kidney
injury he sustained late last season. Further supporting the Alie-Cox
hype: Ebron is set to become a free agent after this season and
the Colts have not knowingly engaged in extension talks with him.
Also, bear in mind Reich has a history of utilizing two tight
ends, so if Doyle is in any way compromised from last season's
injuries or Ebron struggles to stay healthy like he did over his
first three NFL seasons, Alie-Cox will have the opening he needs.
He's not a player most owners in 16- or 18-round drafts need to
roster, but he's easily one of the most likely candidates of players
likely to go undrafted in fantasy to an every-week starter at
some point in the next year or two.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It's
never a good idea to completely dismiss a player just because
he is moving from an elite quarterback (and offense) to what figures
to be an average quarterback (and offense). It's also never a
good idea to underestimate two former teammates - especially a
quarterback-receiver duo - hooking up together with a different
team. To that end, ESPN's Mike DiRocco believes Conley "might
turn out to be one of the best under-the-radar free-agent signings
this year" after watching him reconnect with Foles this spring.
(The two spent a season together with Kansas City in 2016 when
Foles backed up Alex Smith.) DiRocco makes the case Jacksonville
does not have a clear No. 1 receiver at the moment, so with Marqise
Lee not expected back from his knee injury until well into training
camp, Conley will have his shot to seize a job.
While Conley certainly has the athletic ability to be a No. 1
and all the Jaguars' receivers are theoretically working with
a clean slate under new OC John DeFilippo, Dede Westbrook has
more of a track record and is a more complete receiver with his
ability to win at every level of a defense. Keelan Cole also presents
a sizable obstacle, and the case can be made he should be starting
anyway if he regains the trust of the coaching staff (two costly
fumbles in October put him in the doghouse). Jacksonville still
has a vested interest in developing D.J. Chark, and even Terrelle
Pryor cannot completely be dismissed. While it would be wise for
owners to keep an eye out for proof the Foles-to-Conley chemistry
is real throughout training camp and in the preseason, it's difficult
to put a lot of stock in the possibility Conley will go from an
average receiver in Kansas City - where he had multiple chances
to lock down a starting job - to a clear No. 1 option in Jacksonville.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Naturally,
the degree to which either one of these speedsters can make an
impact on the 2019 season is going to depend greatly on how the
Tyreek Hill situation plays out. Hardman will almost certainly
get the first crack of replacing Chris Conley at the very least,
and he could easily be used as a poor man's version of Hill if
the two-time All-Pro is suspended for the first half of the season
as expected. Much as was the case for Hill as he made the transition
to a full-time receiver from an "offensive weapon,"
Hardman is a bit raw in terms of playing receiver after entering
college as a quarterback prospect, and he didn't exactly get a
lot of opportunities to show off his abilities for run-heavy Georgia.
In short, it's going to be a big ask for Hardman to enjoy the
kind of production necessary for him to remain on fantasy rosters
as a rookie and twice as difficult for him to be relevant at all
if Hill is allowed to play again at some point this season. However,
it's hard not to like Hardman long-term. Hill is entering the
final year of his rookie contract, and one has to think Kansas
City will be hesitant to bring him back in the event the NFL allows
him to play again.
Pringle is obviously much more of a longshot, even though he
has impressed HC Andy Reid and his staff twice in as many years
with his work in the offseason. ESPN's Adam Teicher stated Pringle
was on the verge of making the team last year before suffering
an injury in the final preseason game. His college production
(at Kansas State) is similar to Hardman, averaging 24.1 yards
per catch in his final season. He made his biggest impression
in Kansas City's final preseason game last year, finishing with
four catches for 122 yards and a touchdown before going down with
the hamstring injury that cost him the season. Reid mentioned
at the NFL Combine that he thought "(Byron) was on
the rise before he got hurt," so he's definitely worth
keeping an eye on if Hill's likely suspension proves to be more
of a long-term one. It's hard to see an immediate path to playing
time for Pringle barring a rash of injuries, but owners need to
make themselves familiar with just about every skill-position
player on an offense has explosive as the Chiefs' scoring machine.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: After
a wasted rookie season due to injuries, Williams began to assert
himself almost immediately as a primary option in the red zone,
scoring six times from the 10 or closer and eight times in all
inside the red zone. Tyrell Williams and his 64 targets, 41 catches
and five receiving TDs are now in Oakland, so it's easy to understand
why Big Mike is coming off draft boards at the end of the fifth
round. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, projecting is never as
easy as handing the production of the departed receiver to the
guy who is technically replacing him. To that end, Hunter Henry
is going to steal some red zone looks after not playing at all
during the regular season in 2018. Travis Benjamin could easily
slide right into Tyrell Williams' target and catch numbers.
But make no mistake about it: Mike Williams expects more looks
in his third year and Los Angeles believes he
is ready for them. His 43 catches for 664 yards and 10 touchdowns
last season might be a bit flukish for some receivers, but defenses
don't really have much of a choice but to take their chances and
play the Chargers straight up. Los Angeles has three running backs
who are accomplished receivers, a tight end in Henry who demands
respect, a speedster in Benjamin who is still very much a respected
deep threat and one of the league's best route-runners in Keenan
Allen. While it might be hard for Mike Williams to repeat his
touchdown efficiency, he seems like a solid candidate to match
or exceed last year's TD production. While he may top out at around
70 catches, he feels like a player who will exceed his current
draft cost (5.10) and could be a league-winner type if Allen was
to get hurt.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: I'm
not going to go back and look, but there's a good chance Parker
has appeared in Early Observations more than any other player
over the last 3-4 years. Two years ago, many owners were duped
by Jay Cutler's assertion that Parker reminded him of Alshon Jeffery
and the over-the-top praise he received from the coaching staff.
Last year, he was dominated in camp by Xavien Howard, who has
since become the highest-paid corner in the league. Yet, the new
coaching staff still saw fit to give him a two-year contract.
He rewarded them by being the "best player in camp,"
according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, who added if Parker
"played like this in games consistently, he would be a Pro
Bowler." We have been here before with Parker, although I
get the sense new HC Brian Flores is a no-nonsense guy and wouldn't
have requested for the team to keep the wideout if he didn't see
something in him; he got to see him plenty as New England's defensive
coordinator. Another big change is the arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick,
who is more willing to go downfield than Ryan Tannehill ever was.
Thankfully, Parker's cost has dropped so low (13.12 ADP) that
owners can feel free to move on after a week or two this time
around. We've seen enough flashes from him to know he can do it
(Week 8 against Houston last year was a prime example, finishing
with six catches for 134 yards with Brock Osweiler as his quarterback),
leaving durability as his only major issue if Fitzpatrick is willing
to trust him as Cutler did initially.
At worst, Williams was an early Day 3 talent in the NFL Draft,
but he went undrafted this spring due to off-field concerns. It
would be mildly surprising if he's not already in the long-term
plans of the Dolphins. For now, however, it is highly unlikely
he'll crack the top three receiver spots in Miami currently occupied
by Parker, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson (assuming he can make
it back for his hip injury at some point during the preseason).
And even if Wilson can't make it back before Week 1, Jakeem Grant
would probably fill in. Nonetheless, Williams would be the most
sensible option on the team if Parker fails to live up to expectations
yet again, so he cannot be completely dismissed in redraft formats
- although he obviously does not need to be drafted. Dynasty owners
looking for an upside stash could do much worse, however.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: This
offseason was supposed to be a time when Sony Michel distanced
himself from the competition. Instead, he sat for a large chunk
of the spring due to a knee scope. (Reports do have Michel being
ready
well in advance for camp, however.) In the meantime, Harris
reportedly made a strong first impression on the team and figures
to go into training camp with a reasonable chance to share early-down
work with Michel. Before owners think about dismissing Harris,
it's worth noting he has not fumbled since 2016 and dropped only
three of his targets during his college career. Thus, if he can
remain healthy, it means he has two big feathers in his hat that
Michel doesn't: a history of good ball security and durability.
That combination means a lot of coaches, but maybe no coach values
it more than HC Bill Belichick. New England annually boasts one
of the most productive fantasy backfields, so it is always worth
our time as fantasy owners to invest a middle-round pick in one
with the hope that back will be the one that becomes the latest
LeGarrette Blount or Michel. (Last year's combination of Michel
and James White was just the latest reincarnation of the ever-changing
Patriots backfield.) New England has morphed more and more into
a ball-control, power-running team in recent years, which makes
Harris a nice fit. Although Harris is not a flashy player by any
stretch, he essentially needs one player with a lengthy injury
history to get hurt in order to have a clear path to 15-18 carries
per game. So whether owners like it or not, Harris needs to be
coming off the board a lot earlier than his current 11.07 ADP
as the overall RB49.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It's
been a mixed bag for Anderson's fantasy owners over the last two
seasons. In 2017, he was a big part of guiding teams to the fantasy
postseason before falling flat. In 2018, the fantasy playoffs
were about the only time he actually produced. It's only natural
to blame the player in a lot of cases because the majority of
fantasy owners (and even analysts) don't want to put the time
into figuring out why something happened (or didn't), while others
don't want the narrative they've established in their mind to
get blown up. Without getting into too much detail, Jeremy
Bates has proven to be mostly over his head as an NFL play-caller,
failing to utilize Anderson like former OC John Morton was able
to and making the unconscionable decision of moving Quincy Enunwa
out of the slot to make room for Jermaine Kearse after the former
enjoyed a solid connection with Sam Darnold early in 2018.
The beauty of the Jets' offseason is New York is no longer a
laughingstock when it comes to possessing talent at the skill
positions. Le'Veon Bell gives the running game a fighting chance
and is obviously a skilled pass-catcher. Jamison Crowder is an
above-average slot who can make big plays. Enunwa is a big and
reliable possession target. Chris Herndon is a potential budding
star at tight end. In other words, Darnold has options and a full
year of experience, while the supporting cast is good enough to
scare defenses for the first time in years. Both new HC Adam Gase
and GM Joe Douglas appear to be somewhere between happy and smitten
with Anderson, who is clearly the team's most dangerous downfield
weapon. Currently the WR30 with an ADP of 6.12, Anderson probably
will end up going a full round higher by the time drafts really
heat up in August. Not only is he playing for a contract, but
his supporting cast is solid and the people in power want to see
him succeed.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: If
the Raiders aren't giving Waller the DeVante Parker treatment
this spring, he's likely headed to the Pro Bowl. (I'm only half-kidding.)
Oakland has been pushing the narrative that one of the main reasons
why it was comfortable letting Jared Cook leave via free agency
was because Waller was on the roster. The 26-year-old has been
talked up a few times since arriving in the league in 2015 as
a receiver out of Georgia Tech, only to usually shoot himself
in the foot - including but not limited to twice violating the
NFL's substance abuse policy. The Raiders seem to believe he has
"responded
well to a golden opportunity to kick-start his career and realize
vast potential" and enjoyed an "excellent offseason."
NBC Sports Bay Area's Scott Bair stated Waller is "physically
stronger and was as impressive as anyone not named Antonio Brown
in OTAs and minicamp work."
One of the important things to look out for when attempting to
spot a potential breakout player who has done virtually nothing
in the league up to that point is taking inventory on what the
team has done to protect itself against him not living up to the
expectations. While Erik Swoope was a solid addition that could
make the team, the Raiders had ample opportunity and ammunition
to secure one of the draft's top tight ends. They waited until
the fourth round to take one. They've essentially given Waller
the starting job before training camp - or at least would like
us to believe they have. Having watched Waller play a bit in college,
it's not hard for me to buy the hype. Watching him on NFL Game
Rewind make plays toward the end of the season only makes me believe
it more. It is rare to see tight ends move as fluidly and display
the speed he does after the catch. Thus, I would not be surprised
if he ends up as a top-20 fantasy tight end and perhaps makes
a push for low-end TE1 numbers.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Moncrief
has long been a fantasy tease, but it's important to keep in mind
that Andrew Luck is responsible for only 141 of the 347 targets
he has seen as a pro receiver. (The other six quarterbacks are
Blake Bortles, Jacoby Brissett, Matt Hasselbeck, Cody Kessler,
Scott Tolzein and Charlie Whitehurst.) It also hasn't helped his
cause that injuries robbed him of at least four games in 2016
and again in 2017 - the latter of which was a lost season for
Luck. As many owners remember, he spent 2018 in Jacksonville with
Bortles and Kessler. To say he's had ample opportunity to take
advantage of his talent would be a bit of a lie. To that end,
he appears to be capitalizing on his latest chance, as The Athletic's
Mark Kaboly noted the 25-year-old had an "impressive spring"
and "looks like a 50- or 60-catch guy with five or six touchdowns."
Ben Roethlisberger appears to be a fan as well:
“I wasn’t really sure what to expect when he
came in. I didn’t know him and now just getting to see his
work ethic, the type of person he is, his desire to be great (and)
his knowledge of the offense already. We’ll do no-huddle
stuff and I’ll give him a signal and I’ll be like,
‘You good?’ and he’ll be like, ‘Yeah.’
He is in with coach (Darryl) Drake every single morning, pretty
much all day."
The question with Moncrief has rarely ever been about talent,
but rather consistency and durability. The quarterbacks I listed
earlier should give readers a pretty decent idea as to why the
former has been lacking. Pittsburgh almost always places two receivers
inside the top 40 fantasy receivers and quite often the top 30.
Moncrief's ADP is currently 12.06 as the overall WR55, which is
almost four rounds and 18 spots ahead of D.K. Metcalf. If Moncrief
can stay healthy this season, I'd be willing to call Kaboly's
estimate his floor. I'm not quite ready to suggest the Ole Miss
product will be an every-week WR3 in 2019, but I think he's got
a good shot.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Mariota
has been a pro quarterback since 2015. In that time, he's watched
the organization cycle through Jason Michael, Terry Robiskie,
Matt LaFleur and now Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator. But
that's only been part of the problem. The other concern has been
a lack of durability, which can be attributed at least in part
to the lack of stability at offensive coordinator, although the
bigger issue is Mariota simply isn't built to last a full season.
(Or at least wasn't until now … maybe.) Check out this quote
from former Titans strength and conditioning coach Steve Watterson
when he was asked about how additional weight for Mariota and
other thinner players can protect them:
“We know that there is a cautionary percent of body fat
for different players - I’ve always said, for example, wide
receivers and DBs that are below five percent (are too low) and
there are a lot that fall under that. You need a certain amount.
There (are) physics laws. One is with tissue and the absorption
of energy and two is the physics of mass and force. Having guys
at times really too light in their position. Obviously, you see
it in offensive linemen, there is a line. All of a sudden, you
say a guy’s just going to be overmatched because he’s
just with a massive individual across the line. It’s not
always just athletic ability. Physical variables do matter.”
According to beat writer Paul Kuharsky, Mariota weighs 230 pounds
(as of late May) and is roughly
12 to 13 pounds heavier than he was to end last season. The
Titans also finally made it a priority to give him weapons on
par with the rest of the league. Here's a brief recap of their
recent troubles: Corey Davis was a rookie in 2017 and battled
hamstring issues that undoubtedly slowed his development that
season. Last year, Delanie Walker was lost in the opener to a
season-ending ankle injury. Before that, Mariota had his best
year as a pro with Rishard Matthews as his top wideout. The point
is "it' is inside Mariota, Tennessee has to be able to get
"it" out.
If we are to believe Watterson, the former No. 2 overall pick
has taken the first step by heeding the team's request to add
weight rather than maintain flexibility - which has been the stance
that he and his trainers have taken to this point of his career.
The Titans have taken the next necessary step by surrounding him
with Davis, Walker, A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries and Dion Lewis.
One of the final steps: allow the team to grow in the same scheme
(which is a big part of why Smith was promoted from within after
LaFleur accepted the Packers' job). It's taken Tennessee five
years to figure out how to get through to and build around its
"franchise quarterback," but it's fair to say the team
can finally feel good about completing a project that should have
been done no later than the start of last year. Either way, 2019
is actually the best time to buy into the possibility Mariota
may end up becoming something more than what he has been to this
point - because he finally has everything he needs to do his job.
He is going undrafted in most leagues so far, but I frankly would
not be surprised if he makes a push to be a top-20 fantasy quarterback.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
