As far as I know, my PMA methodology takes into account as many factors as any approach. Trying to accurately predict workload and/or target shares is among the most difficult. If done well, however, making accurate predictions becomes a whole lot easier. Some analysts believe the type of analysis I'm about to share below is flawed, due in part because it does not visibly account for play-calling in neutral or relatively neutral game scripts (when the conditions are best suited for a play-caller to remain in his comfort zone - tied or within one score - as opposed to passing the ball to catch up or running the ball to protect the lead - situations in which the play-caller's hand is forced a bit). Perhaps at some point in the near future I will start working in metrics such as the previous year's pace of play and yards gained per drive into the following season's rankings, but I find many of them to be more telling and impactful during the season and extremely difficult to use for predictive purposes - at least when it comes to organizing fantasy players.

The long and short of it is this: Play-callers and quarterbacks are primarily responsible for getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers and that doesn't happen by accident. It is one thing to say Saquon Barkley is going to get nearly 70 percent of his backfield's carries or DeAndre Hopkins will see 25 percent of his team's targets, but is there any recent historical precedent for that?

This week and next, I will attempt to provide each of you a better grasp of the way players are able to reach the statistical heights they do (or don't), focusing primarily on the recent history of the men who will call the shots. Given the injury rate of players and turnover rate of coaches, be advised this is far from a perfect exercise. With that said, I think you will find some of the information below to be fascinating and perhaps even helpful. This week, we take a look at the AFC:

Most of the setup below should be fairly self-explanatory, but I'll break it down anyway. The RB1/WR1/TE1 designations are based on carry share (the percentage of a team's carries by a player) and target share (the percentage of a team's targets by a player). I limited the play-callers' histories to three seasons in order to conserve space and keep the information somewhat relevant. The bolded numbers right below the headings of "carry share" and "target share" are the team totals in those respective columns to give you some sense of the actual workload. Last but not least, the coaches listed below the team name are the men responsible for calling plays this year.

BAL | BUF | CIN | CLE | DEN | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LAC | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | PIT | TEN

Baltimore
OC Greg Roman

It is also interesting to note Roman was in charge when Watkins enjoyed his best fantasy season. However, it should go without saying that any team running the ball 500-plus times typically won't have enough volume in the passing game to make more than one receiver viable in fantasy unless it overcompensates. It's important to mention that since Woods' 17.3 percent target share looks very good without context, but it only amounted to 47 catches for 552 yards and three scores on 80 targets. Taylor completed 63.7 percent of his passes in 2015, so even if Jackson makes a huge jump in the accuracy department, it's still going to be hard for more than one pass-catcher to be an every-week fantasy starter.

Buffalo
OC Brian Daboll

Daboll did not change his stripes much in 2018 from his previous four years as an offensive coordinator (Cleveland in 2009-10, Miami in 2011 and Kansas City in 2012). Those offenses registered top-six finishes in rushing attempts three times and top-11 finishes in rushing yards three times. Last season's Bills made him 4-for-5 in each category, as Buffalo ranked sixth with 468 carries and ninth with 1,984 yards rushing. Considering the number of injuries he dealt with throughout the season and the fact he had a rookie quarterback who completed 52.6 percent of his passes for most of that run, he generally made the most of what he had to work with in his first season with the team.

Given the aforementioned injuries and amount of personnel turnover this offseason, I'm not exactly sure we can conclude much from last year's percentages. Following the additions of Frank Gore and Devin Singletary, it seems logical the Bills will employ some form of committee backfield approach. Gore should probably be considered the favorite in four-minute situations as well as short-yardage and goal-line duties since he is more of an inside-the-guards runner, while Singletary could very well be the "breather back" considering he is a younger - albeit less explosive - version of McCoy. The Bills will be playing with fire if they ask Allen to run much more than the 7.4 attempts per game he averaged as a rookie. History says he's not going to do what he did on the ground again; last year marked only the 21st instance in league history that a quarterback ran for at least 600 yards - 12 of those instances coming from Randall Cunningham, Cam Newton and Michael Vick (four apiece). While the additions of John Brown and Cole Beasley figure to help Allen complete a higher percentage of his passes, they also will almost certainly render last year's target shares moot.

Cincinnati
OC Bill Lazor

Taylor served as the quarterback coach for the Dolphins from 2013-15 - taking over as the interim offensive coordinator late in the 2015 season - before heading to the University of Cincinnati for a season. He returned to the NFL as the assistant receivers coach in Los Angeles under Sean McVay before becoming the quarterback coach in 2018. That is the extent of his pro coaching and/or coordinating experience. It's probably safe to say he was hired with the idea he would be able to install an offense similar to the one McVay has built for the Rams - one capable of playing with pace and reliant on play-action.

We can assume Taylor was more influenced by his time with the Rams than any of his other stops, making it reasonable to believe he shares at least some of McVay's principles, such as a 1-2 punch at running back if he has the horses. While it may be too much to ask for Joe Mixon to match Todd Gurley's 61.5 percent carry share and 17.1 percent target share from 2018, it'd be surprising if those respective marks fell much lower than 50 and 13 for Mixon in 2019. Considering how much McVay has wanted a dynamic change-of-pace back since arriving in LA, would it be unreasonable to believe Taylor will use Giovani Bernard more than expected since he already has one at his disposal? One of the hallmarks of McVay's passing games has been balance, although he never had anyone quite like A.J. Green. So while the seven-time Pro Bowler probably won't see the 25-30 percent target shares he's become accustomed to under previous play-callers, he's a good bet to remain in the low-to-mid 20s. It will be interesting to see if Tyler Boyd occupies more of the Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp role in this offense. He probably won't see a repeat of last year's 20.4 percent target share, although the falloff shouldn't too dramatic. Expect John Ross to be the jet-sweep "eye candy" if Taylor goes all-in on trying to emulate McVay, but the former first-round pick has to stay healthy long enough for it to matter; if he can, he has some appeal as the Sammy Watkins/Brandin Cooks vertical threat that has thrived under McVay.

OBJ seems like a relatively safe bet to match and likely exceed Landry's 21 percent target share from last season, but what happens after that? A nick chunk - 20.6 percent, to be exact - is available after Perriman left for Tampa Bay and Higgins was bumped down the depth chart following Beckham's arrival. In theory, most of those looks could be redistributed to OBJ (and leave Landry most unaffected), but the odds are strong everyone else will take a hit, especially if Beckham draws about 25 percent of the looks. Johnson would seem to be an obvious candidate for a decline, as would Callaway, who is now the clear No. 3 option instead of a part-time starter. The wild-card in this bunch is Njoku. Even though Cleveland will almost certainly fashion itself as a physical running team, does it really make sense to not feature a 6-4, 246-pound athletic marvel who can jump like crazy near the goal line? At this point, however, he seems unlikely to see 14.1 percent of the targets in 2019.

Denver
OC Rich Scangarello

A big part of the reason why Scangarello ended up in San Francisco working under Kyle Shanahan was perhaps no one studied his offenses more than the new Broncos offensive coordinator. Beginning roughly 10 years ago when Shanahan was with the Texans and Scangarello was an assistant with the Raiders, the latter loved how the former took the zone scheme to another level. Scangarello later became an assistant under Shanahan in Atlanta in 2015 before serving as his quarterback coach in San Francisco the last two seasons. Make no mistake about it; Denver's 2019 offense will share many similarities with the 49ers. Let's assume for the sake of argument that Scangarello's views on playing time distribution for running backs or target distribution at receiver line up with Shanahan's as well. Prior to San Francisco losing just about every running back to injury at some point last year, Shanahan's previous three offenses saw one running back enjoy a carry share at least 53.9 percent. Whether that's feasible or not in Denver is another story.

First and foremost, Phillip Lindsay was limited to individual drills this spring after undergoing wrist surgery, so he figures to be a bit behind the curve when he begins camp. People also need to remember Royce Freeman didn't lose the job so much last season as Lindsay took it from him. It's a good bet Freeman ran more outside zone at Oregon than Lindsay did in Colorado. (Scangarello's scheme will almost certainly mimic Shanahan's, which features outside zone runs. Owners should keep in mind few runners were more north-south last season than Lindsay.) Another issue is whether or not someone Lindsay's size (190 pounds) can consistently handle a heavy workload, year after year. Shanahan's offenses have never afraid to feature one receiver if it made sense to do so (i.e. Julio Jones, Pierre Garcon), but it might be a bit much to say they ever forced the issue in that regard. The latter figures to apply to the 2019 Broncos. Courtland Sutton has a decent chance of becoming a target hog down the road and should mesh well with Joe Flacco given their strengths, but there's so much we don't know yet. For example, how healthy will Emmanuel Sanders be? How much will Joe Flacco lean on his tight end? In short, there is a lot working against any other Denver receiver amassing a plus-20 percent target share this fall.

Houston
HC Bill O'Brien

The 2017 Texans ran 448 times - the fewest of any of O'Brien's teams as the head honcho in Houston. Last year's squad attempted 472 runs. Miller's 44.5 percent carry share was easily the lowest during his time with the Texans. A contributing factor behind that low mark was Watson staying healthy enough all season to finish with 21 percent of the rushing attempts. Another factor was the continued inexplicable desire to feed Blue the ball. Even with Blue's departure, it would be a surprise if Miller wasn't a sub-50 percent carry share back again this season, if only because he is bound to lose more work to Foreman - especially if he is as healthy and looks as good as is being reported - than he did to Blue.

For most of his time in Houston, O'Brien hasn't had a full cast of characters in the passing game - a whole lot of Hopkins and not much of anything else. To that end, Hopkins has amassed a ridiculous target share of at least 33 percent in consecutive years and over 30 percent in three of the last four seasons. It's hard to imagine that number dropping much below 26 or 27 percent even if Fuller and/or Coutee stay healthy all year. It gets interesting after that. In the six regular-season games Coutee played, Hopkins only saw 10 more targets than the rookie. If we add in the playoff loss to the Colts, the gap is six - or less than one target per game. (Yes, I know a ton of those targets came in two games against the Colts.) Most owners are well aware of the connection Watson has with Fuller, catching 11 touchdowns in 11 games when the pair is able to play together. While Coutee hasn't played long enough to draw an "injury-prone" label yet, Fuller has. If Fuller struggles to stay on the field yet again - he's played in fewer games each year of his career (from 14 to 10 to seven) - then Fuller's 15.9 percent target share from 2016 should be Coutee's floor. It's more likely he'd find himself in the 20s. The Texans target the tight end enough (20.9 percent between three players); the problem has been getting one to grab the starting job and hold it. The talent is on the roster now, but it's all very young.

Indianapolis
HC Frank Reich

Last year was Reich's first real shot at calling plays, and it would appear at first blush he prefers the same kind of offensive balance he witnessed under Doug Pederson in Philadelphia. While that may be true, injuries were a key part of the Colts' season. To that end, there's a decent chance at least three of the four pass-catchers who ranked between fourth and seventh in target share might not be on the team in 2019. Had Hilton not missed two games and been bothered by a high-ankle sprain in several others, his target share would have likely been well over 20 percent. Pederson's love for using his tight ends - especially in the red zone - also seemed to rub off on Reich. Ebron's 21 targets inside the 20 ranked second among all tight ends, while his 11 red zone scores ranked second in the league regardless of position. In total, 26.5 percent of all the Colts' targets went to tight ends. That number could stay roughly the same in 2019, but don't expect Ebron to match his 17.4 percent share. Doyle will be over 10 percent if he can play more than six games, while Mo Alie-Cox figures to see more action after turning heads during the offseason program. The biggest change, however, may be an overall drop in volume from the passing game. If the defense improves and the Colts' sport a top-five running game like Reich wants, they won't be attempting 634 throws again.

Another candidate for a decline in terms of overall usage is Hines, who benefited as much as anyone from the complete lack of healthy bodies last season. With rookie Parris Campbell's ability to make big plays on the short stuff, Hines will be lucky to get a 10 percent target share. Given his general lack of effectiveness as a runner, Hines' 20.8 percent carry share is bound to come down as well. Mack's 47.8 carry share is actually quite impressive for a back who played 12 games. With virtually no real competition on the roster, he's a strong candidate for roughly 230 carries if he can hold up. Even better, Mack gets to run behind one of the league's best lines, meaning efficiency should not be an issue.

Jacksonville
OC John DeFilippo

In 13 games before getting fired with the Vikings, DeFilippo dialed up 524 pass attempts (513 targets) versus only 274 rushing attempts. He might have been working against HC Mike Zimmer's wishes when it comes to building around a rushing attack but was probably doing the right thing by going pass-heavy given Minnesota's personnel. (Let's not forget Cook wasn't really truly healthy until midseason, giving DeFilippo no more than five games to adjust his offense to having one of the game's top big-play backs in the fold.) Owners should work under the assumption DeFilippo was catering his game-calling to his personnel, which is going to be paramount if he hopes to stay in Jacksonville for more than a year. Nick Foles isn't Kirk Cousins, none of the Jaguars' receivers are Diggs or Thielen and the combination of Geoff Swaim and Josh Oliver does not equal Rudolph. There is even a fair debate to be had about Cook versus Leonard Fournette, but I digress. In case it wasn't obvious, I'm not sure there's much we can take from either one of DeFilippo's previous two one-year stints as an NFL play-caller, although his resume so far makes it look like he loves the passing game, albeit without proper context. (His hand was also forced a bit in Cleveland as well.)

Kansas City
HC Andy Reid

For all the fantasy production Reid gets out of his running backs, some might find it interesting that 2017-18 marked the first time since 2013-14 that the same back led the Chiefs in carry share in consecutive seasons. Avid supporters of Williams may be encouraged by that since he didn't come close to pacing Kansas City in 2018, but I tend to believe the year-to-year turnover is just another reason to be skeptical about him. I do not question his ability to be Reid's next fantasy monster at running back (anyone who watched him with an open mind late last year could see he has talent); I DO question his ability to handle the workload. In five pro seasons, he has never amassed more than 73 touches in the regular season. His biggest workload at Oklahoma … 210 touches. We have to go back to 2011 at Arizona Western to find the one and only season in which he exceeded 210 touches after his high school days. It's worth noting, however, that Reid's running backs rarely ever top 400 touches as a group.

Perhaps the most consistent trend in the Chiefs' offense in recent years has been the fact Kelce has not experienced a target share of lower than 21.8 in any of the last four seasons. Most of the league's starting tight ends struggle to get 12 percent, so Kelce's usual share is about twice as high. Hill also had a target share of over 25 percent, matching the number of instances in which a Reid-coached offense in Kansas City had a wide receiver go over 20 percent (Jeremy Maclin, 2015). Hill's likely suspension obviously figures to bring him down closer to 20 percent in 2019. Watkins' 10.4 percent target share looks weak until we consider he essentially missed half of the season due to injuries (two early exits in his 10 games played). Projecting statistics is never as easy as saying a player with an injury history like Watkins' will suddenly play all 16 games, but he would have probably been a lock for 70 catches and a 20 percent target share had he played all season. Last year's marks only figure to increase significantly if Hill is forced to sit out at least four games. Unfortunately for owners, Hill's questionable status makes it almost useless to draw meaningful conclusions at this point in time.

Los Angeles Chargers
OC Ken Whisenhunt

Were it not for a ridiculous trick play the Chargers ran as they were having their way with Arizona in Week 12, it is possible Gordon could have set career highs pretty much across the board. Instead, he was really never quite the same after returning. It also cost him an opportunity to handle at least 67.8 percent of the carry share for a third straight season. Be that as it may, Gordon is the clear workhorse in this backfield even though Ekeler will probably push for a carry share in the high teens. Considering Los Angeles' backfield accounted for more fantasy points last season - and, by extension, was more productive in the real game - than in any year since LaDainian Tomlinson's record-setting year of 2006, it stands to reason the Chargers will probably choose to keep things pretty much the same. All in all, it should business as usual in Los Angeles as long as everybody stays healthy.

Where things get a bit more interesting is in the passing game. Tyrell Williams' 12.8 percent target share and Gates' 8.9 are gone, but Gordon and Ekeler will almost certainly account for about 23-25 percent of the target share again. Allen will grab at least another 25 percent. Henry seems like a good bet to absorb the looks Gates leaves behind and finish around 13 percent. Does Mike Williams get the remaining six or seven percent left behind by Tyrell Williams and Gates, pushing him close to 20 percent? I don't think he'll get quite there, as Benjamin was easily over 10 percent in each of his first two years with the Chargers. However, it's important to remember Mike Williams did a ton of damage with 13 percent of the target share, so even a slight bump of 3-4 percent is could result in something close to 55-60 catches, 850 yards and 10-12 TDs. He may never be a high-volume receiver for as long as the Chargers remain loaded on offense, but he will almost certainly be a high-efficiency wideout.

Miami
OC Chad O'Shea

Welcome to Foxboro South. Versatility will be at a premium. As someone who has spent nearly half of his coaching career in New England, O'Shea is well-versed in "the more you can do" mindset preached by Bill Belichick. In a year or two, it is likely Miami will be utilizing three backs on a fairly regular basis. I'm not sure that is going to be the case this season, however. Ballage has proven to be little more than a boom-or-bust runner throughout college and pro career. He's the only legitimate competition for Drake, who might actually have the edge over Ballage in almost every single meaningful and important trait for a running back. One of the reasons New England boasts one of the most productive fantasy backfields every year is the team's usage of a back like James White in space. Drake is a rich man's version of White, so owners should expect Drake to be heavily involved and finish with a target share in the neighborhood of White in 2016 (15.8). Considering the lack of proven playmakers at receiver, that number could move closer to White's target share of 22.1 last year.

It makes sense that Albert Wilson - assuming he's healthy - will get the first crack at playing the Julian Edelman role in South Beach. When Edelman's been healthy, he's usually been in line for at least 20 percent of the targets. Wilson shouldn't be expected to reach those heights, but he could surprise. DeVante Parker will probably be given the opportunity to mimic Randy Moss and/or Josh Gordon, but it remains to be seen if Parker can stay healthy long enough to fill those shoes. In Miami's dream scenario, Kenny Stills will serve as a high-end version of Phillip Dorsett and/or Chris Hogan. The wild-card is Mike Gesicki. No one is expecting him to be the second coming of Rob Gronkowski, but last year was inexcusable for such a highly talented player. One explanation for his disappointing season? Asking a player drafted for his receiving talents to block nearly half the time. Gesicki blocked on 53 pass plays and 123 running plays on 400 total offensive snaps per Pro Football Focus, meaning the Penn State product was asked to stay in 44 percent of the time. It's not hard to imagine a scenario in which Gesicki pushes for 14 percent of the target share, especially since Dwayne Allen was added. Allen is generally considered among the better blockers at his position in the league.

New England
OC Josh McDaniels

Somewhat surprisingly, last year was pretty much par for the course when it comes to backfield distribution. For the third time in four years, three backs handled at least 11.9 percent of the carries. Michel's 43.7 percent carry share was actually the second-highest mark by a Patriots lead running back going back to at least 2013, topped only by LeGarrette Blount's 62 percent in 2016. Michel could have finished somewhere in the mid-50s had he hadn't missed three games. With that said, it seems highly unlikely he'll come close to that mark again after New England drafted Damien Harris in the third round this spring. It would not surprise me if Michel finished in the high 30s and Harris in the high 20s. White saw more action than ever, as his 19.7 percent carry share more than doubled his previous best mark. Owners are almost certain to overreact to his 2018 production; last season was a perfect storm in many ways for him. (More on that in a bit.)

Going back to 2013 with my target analysis with some of these teams, I cannot recall ever seeing a running back coming anywhere close to a 22.1 percent target share. If owners want to believe that is the new norm, let them draft White in the third and fourth round. Edelman was suspended four games, Gronkowski was rarely ever healthy, Burkhead was hurt and the Gordon experiment was short-lived, leaving Tom Brady with virtually no one he could trust to get open quickly. Perhaps more than anyone else, White benefited the most from Gronk's decline. Even though Gronk is now retired, it is extremely unlikely White is going to get 100 targets in 2019 - much less repeat the 123 he saw in 2018 - if only because New England doesn't have near the injury/personnel concerns that it did last fall. Edelman will continue to be a target hog and finish somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s if he can play every game. N'Keal Harry's floor should be Gordon's 12.2 percent target share from a year ago, while his ceiling could be around 20 percent if Gordon is ultimately not reinstated. Gordon's floor should be 16-18 percent in the unlikely event he is good to go for Week 1 and can play a full season. The targets left behind by Gronkowski should be split up among Harry, Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson.

New York Jets
OC Adam Gase

Gase hasn't had much use for a bell-cow back for most of his six seasons as a head coach and/or offensive coordinator, as only did Jay Ajayi (62 percent) had a carry share of more than 46.6 percent over the last five years. Even when it seemed obvious Drake should see more opportunities as a runner, Gase was hesitant to give him more than 15 touches. Enter Le'Veon Bell, whose massive workloads in Pittsburgh recently had him believing he was going to reset the market at his position. Common sense suggests Bell will enjoy an Ajayi (circa 2016)-like 64.4 percent carry share, which illustrates Gase can ride one back if he wants. The new regime seems to really like Ty Montgomery, however, so it would be an upset if Bell came anywhere close to the 73.5 percent carry share he enjoyed in 2017, especially given Gase's history.

Of the five previous passing games Gase has been in charge of, this year's Jets are probably the most like the 2015 Bears. Alshon Jeffery was well on his way to a 30-percent target share that season but only played nine games (still finished with an 18.1 percent share). While it is doubtful Robby Anderson will come anywhere close to that first mark, he's also the best fit for that role and should push for 20 percent of the target share. Crowder should be the second-most targeted receiver on this team, especially considering how much Sam Darnold turned to his slot receivers as a rookie. Quincy Enunwa's optimal fit is in the slot as well, but he's probably not going to get much time there and could struggle to see more than 10 percent of the looks as a result. Another interesting Bears-to-Jets comparison is Chris Herndon to Martellus Bennett, who attracted 15.4 percent of the targets for Chicago that season. That's a high bar for Herndon, but it was Gase who referred to the second-year tight end as a "unicorn type player" who can "do all three phases of the game." His likely two-game suspension figures to rob him of any chance of reaching 15 percent, but he's a strong candidate to finish right behind Anderson and Crowder in targets and catches among Jets' receivers and tight ends.

Oakland
HC Jon Gruden

It's probably not wise to try to read very much into last year's numbers with the Raiders. They lost their featured back (Lynch) and their best receiver (Cooper) got traded around midseason. Going beyond the personnel losses, the defense was horrible as well, so the target-to-carry ratio of 529:387 is unlikely to be repeated. A jumping off point in terms of projecting carries for Josh Jacobs is around 240, considering Martin and Lynch combined for 262 on a team that played with so much negative game script. Martin is back, but it seems unlikely he'll see much more than five carries per game as long as Jacobs is healthy. A repeat of Richard's 55 rush attempts sounds about right, but his carry share of 14.2 percent is bound to come down as well - if only because the team's overall volume will increase.

Gruden's last three offenses in Tampa Bay (2006-08) each had a receiver with at least a 20 percent target share (high was 27.1 by Joey Galloway in 2006), including two over 25. Not that there was any question Antonio Brown was going to get fed, but it's good to know Gruden has a history with high-volume wideouts. Galloway's 2006 target share should probably be the floor for Brown. If we use Nelson as the blueprint (since he was Cooper's sidekick in theory for almost half of the season), it's telling Nelson saw more than four targets only twice in his first 10 games. Williams is more than just a deep threat, but I think he'll be lucky to see more than 15 percent of the targets. Running backs saw exactly 25 percent of the looks last season under Gruden, led by Richard's 15.3. Maybe the running backs get targeted a bit less in 2019, but not by much. Perhaps Richard checks in around 11-12 percent and Jacobs settles in around 9-10, but I can't imagine either back getting to Richard's 81 targets from a season ago. Darren Waller isn't going to anywhere close to Cook's 19.1 percent target share - if only because there are too many other good options on this offense now. With that said, he possesses enough big-play capability that he could push for low-end TE1 status on occasion even on about 10 percent target share.

Pittsburgh
OC Randy Fichtner

The Steelers probably aren't going to throw 687 passes again. It is a virtual certainty they won't settle for only 345 rushing attempts - including a measly 301 by running backs. Bear in mind that Brown's 168 targets have to go somewhere else; it's fair to assume at least a quarter of those will be run plays. Improved depth will probably keep Conner from reaching a 62.3 percent carry share again this season, but it's important to note he hit that mark last year despite missing three games. There has been much made about Conner becoming more of a lead back - as opposed to a feature back - role this season, but Pittsburgh has long been a one-back operation. I believe the Week 17 game was telling in terms of what the Steelers will do this season; in a must-win game with Conner not completely healthy after a three-week absence and Samuels proving to be a capable fill-in, Conner handled 17 touches to Samuels' nine. I think that game represents Conner's floor and Samuels' ceiling for touches when both are healthy.

I cannot ever recall one team having two wide receivers draw at least 24 percent of the targets in the same season. It won't happen again in Pittsburgh anytime soon. While Smith-Schuster should be a lock for another 160 or so targets, expect the complementary players such as Washington, Donte Moncrief and McDonald to pick up the 120 or so remaining targets after the running backs get their aforementioned extra carries. Moncrief clearly seems to have built a quick rapport with Roethlisberger and is a strong candidate for at least 80 targets if he can stay on the field, which would leave McDonald and Washington to split about 40. After one season of good health, owners have forgotten McDonald's durability issues. He's a reasonable bet to see his target share go up to 14-15, but he's also played more than 10 games only twice in six seasons. Washington is a huge wild-card in that he could occupy the Martavis Bryant role in this offense. However, he'll need to ball out to go much higher than 10 percent barring an injury to Moncrief. We haven't even discussed the running backs, who will probably push for 20 percent of the target share after seeing 16.3 percent in 2018. Don’t forget Pittsburgh will also want to try to develop rookie Diontae Johnson as well.

Tennessee
OC Arthur Smith

The Titans opted for continuity with Smith, who will call plays for the first time at any level this season. It is assumed he'll keep Matt LaFleur's offense in place, but how much of an expert can he be in that offense with only one year of exposure to it? Prior to last season, Smith was the tight ends coach under Terry Robiskie and the conclusion of "exotic smashmouth." For what it's worth, he is the longest-tenured member of the coaching staff by far, starting in 2011. Smith will try to recreate the formula that helped the team go 4-1 down the stretch. In that time, Henry handled 97 of the backfield's 123 carries. Tennessee has made no secret it intends to make him a big part of the offense again this year. So without another back on the roster like him, the Titans could easily ask him to handle upwards of 70 percent of the carry share in 2019. Dion Lewis should get more than 25 or 30 percent of the carries, but I only think that happens if Henry gets hurt.

Davis has almost zero chance of matching last year's 26.4 percent target share. The same goes for Lewis' 15.8 percent. Walker's lowest target share since becoming a Titan is 16.3 percent (2013); he was at 21 percent or higher every other year until getting hurt in the opener last season. Expect a first-time play-caller who has coached Walker in some form since he arrived from San Francisco to lean on his veteran tight end. A.J. Brown is a viable threat to take over the lead receiver role at some point; it would be an upset if he doesn't get at least 15 percent of the looks. Adam Humphries' arrival adds even more legitimate competition for targets; 10 percent of the share should be a given for him. In the end, I fully expect Walker - even at his advanced age of 35 (in August) - to lead the team in targets if he is completely recovered from his ankle injury and handle about 18 percent of the looks. Davis and Brown shouldn't finish too far behind that. After those three, I expect a glut of players to be in the 8-10 neighborhood. That kind of balance might be good for fantasy owners on an offense that attempts 600 passes, but Tennessee is one of the least likely teams to throw that much. After all, the Titans threw only 437 times in 2018.