As much as the league tries to legislate defense out of the game,
owners need to understand matchups will always play a fairly big
role in how an offense attacks a defense does on a game-to-game
basis. One of my bigger frustrations as a fantasy owner is the lack
of easily accessible analytics to understand which receiver-cornerback
matchups should be targeted and which ones should be avoided without
always crunching the tape.
Fantasy owners playing in free or low-stakes leagues aren't going
to be overly motivated to drop anywhere from $100-1000 to get
all the advanced analytics they think they need to compete with
the big boys and girls. As many of you already know, I have been
a high-stakes player for years and won a fair amount of money.
Even now, I think it's ridiculous to pay $150 for the one advanced
analytics site I do use.
Seven years ago, I introduced "The Dirty Dozen" and
"The Delicious Dozen" around Thanksgiving time. The
idea then - as it is today - was to identify negative and positive
receiver matchups, respectively, as a way to prepare owners for
the upcoming stretch of fantasy games that usually determine who
moves on and who doesn't.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down in much detail. Until all owners can enjoy
the same kind of access to defensive "production" as
the privileged few, there will be thousands of owners who will
avoid matchups against the New Orleans Saints' Marshon Lattimore
or Philadelphia Eagles' Darius Slay. Lattimore is allowing 68.1
percent of the throws in his coverage to be completed and given
up five touchdowns. Slay is allowing a completion rate of 73.9
percent.
The point to be made here is the fantasy industry as a whole
tends to rely on name recognition when it comes to avoiding a
potential matchup rather than do some research to find out which
defenders are playing well consistently. The truth is defensive
players ebb and flow in much the same way offensive players do.
Note: My cutoff for this piece was 270 coverage
snaps. At roughly 30 coverage snaps per game, we should be able
to eliminate any players who aren't "full-timers." Below
each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected matchups
each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please keep in
mind that receivers move across the formation a lot, while most
defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their corners on
one side of the formation, so this is far from an exact science.
In cases in which a receiver there isn't a discernible difference
in how often a receiver plays on one side of the field or the
other (which is quite common), the most likely player to see coverage
from the cornerback below will be listed first and the receiver
expected to see slightly less of him will be listed second.
*** - Indicates the cornerback has been/will be used as a "shadow"
Humphrey is the first of two consecutive "if there's a problem,
yo, I'll solve it" cornerbacks to begin this list. The 24-year-old
has been in the slot on 67 percent of his coverage snaps, but
the truth is he is the team's most trusted cornerback and will
typically be asked to erase the other team's primary receiver
regardless of where he lines up. Oddly enough, most of the production
he has allowed this season came in Week 4 against Washington,
which targeted him 16 times (!!!) and recorded 14 catches - but
for only 79 yards. He's allowing a high rate of completions in
his coverage (69.2 percent), but opponents are averaging only
8.8 yards per completion when they do so. In other words, fantasy
owners need to hope the quarterback of their favorite receiver
is going to be happy throwing five-yard passes all day long because
Humphrey typically isn't going to allow much after the catch and
he's probably not going to give up a touchdown (two in his last
18 games, including playoffs). A fine example was in Week 8 when
JuJu Smith-Schuster caught all four of his targets in Humphrey's
coverage for 32 yards. While he's not a matchup to avoid, Humphrey
simply isn't going to allow receivers in his coverage to reach
their fantasy ceiling.
* Has spent 184 of his 536 snaps on the left side, 190 on the
right and 113 in the slot.
One of the reasons HC Sean McVay moved on from former DC Wade
Phillips this offseason was to hire a coach that pushed
defensive boundaries and set progressive trends on defense
like McVay tries to do on offense. His search led him to a three-year
veteran assistant whose only work was as an outside linebackers
coach under Vic Fangio in Chicago (2017-18) and Denver (2019).
One of Brandon Staley's first ideas was to designate Ramsey at
the "star" position of his defense - essentially a position-less
player capable of guarding any position. The nature of that position
is somewhat reflected in the sentence above with the asterisk
(he's even lined up as a box safety 40 times). Last week he did
a masterful job in slowing down DK Metcalf, lining up opposite
him on 30 of his 42 routes and not allowing a catch in their "head-to-head"
battle. (Seattle played into Ramsey's hands by not being more
creative with Metcalf, but I digress.) Despite being asked to
line up across from the opponent's primary pass-catcher more often
than not this season, Ramsey has surrendered only 18 receptions
on 34 targets for 186 yards and two touchdowns - both scores against
him coming in Week 3 versus the Bills. Ramsey is one of the surest
bets to shadow the opponent's top threat each week, and that unfortunate
soul - be it a receiver or tight end - needs to be downgraded
considerably. Of note, Metcalf was the first receiver Ramsey has
technically shadowed this season.
There is always at least one shocker on this list every year,
and it's probably fair to say most people outside of the real
hard-core fantasy players and/or writers probably haven't heard
of him. Last year's fifth-round pick out of Penn State surrendered
a completion rate of 81.8 percent in his coverage in part-time
duty in 2019, helping quarterbacks to enjoy a passer rating of
108.5 when throwing in his direction. This season, he has yet
to give up a touchdown and quarterbacks have completed a mere
47.7 percent of their passes in his coverage. These are notable
stats in that Bill Belichick's disciples typically utilize man
coverage more often than the rest of the league, and HC Matt Patricia
has fallen right in line in that regard. In recent weeks, Oruwariye
has held up well when he's been asked to line up across from DJ
Chark (two catches for 12 yards on seven targets), Julio Jones
and Calvin Ridley (a combined 3-48-4) and Zach Pascal (1-16-3).
While it should be noted he isn't typically facing the other team's
top threat, the previous sentence illustrates Detroit doesn't
mind if it happens. Considering how successful quarterbacks have
been against his more highly touted teammates Jeff Okudah (108.1
passer rating allowed) and Desmond Trufant (114.4) - who has shadowed
in each of the last two weeks - it's no wonder why he hasn't been
all that busy lately.
Week 11: Robby Anderson (Panthers) Week 12: Brandin Cooks (Texans) Week 13: Darnell Mooney (Bears) Week 14: Allen Lazard/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Packers) Week 15: Corey Davis (Titans) Week 16: Antonio Brown/Chris Godwin (Buccaneers)
Indianapolis plays zone (specifically Cover 2) at one of the
highest rates in the league. However, much like any basketball
coach would say, cornerbacks often use man-to-man principles in
zone coverage, so it's not as if he's getting off easy in that
regard. One of the ways he benefits the most from Indy's defense
is that he doesn't line up opposite of the opponent's top receiver
very often. For example, he was targeted only one time in Week
10 (Jonnu Smith). In the previous two games, he drew most of his
matchups against running backs and tight ends. For what it's worth,
those also happened to be two of his worst performances of the
season, giving up 10 catches on 14 targets for 134 yards and a
touchdown. Danny Amendola (two catches on two targets for 38 yards
and no TDs), Marvin Jones (1-3-25-1) and Tyler Boyd (2-3-24-0)
have all enjoyed success in his coverage in recent weeks, so he's
far from a tough matchup for fantasy purposes. The problem for
fantasy owners is there is little we can do to exploit this matchup,
as the weakness of Cover 2 is typically about 15-20 yards along
either sideline and down the seam - places Moore isn't going to
find himself very often. And given how infrequently Indianapolis
blitzes and how often the Colts can generate quick pressure with
four rushers, there are usually six other players in the secondary
to assist if opponents specifically try to target the 5-9, 190-pound
Moore.
Week 11: Allen Lazard/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Packers) Week 12: Adam Humphries or Cameron Batson (Titans) Week 13: Randall Cobb (Texans) Week 14: Hunter Renfrow/Henry Ruggs III (Raiders) Week 15: Randall Cobb (Texans) Week 16: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers)
8. James
Bradberry, Giants (Passer Rating Against: 68.2) ***
Bradberry has operated as a shadow for perimeter receivers more
than just about cornerback in the league this season and generally
held up well. Since giving up two touchdowns in his Giants' debut
in Week 1, he has surrendered one score. Along the way, he has
shadowed the likes of Allen Robinson (three catches on seven targets
for 33 yards and Amari Cooper (1-3-8). In each of those matchups,
he traveled with the aforementioned receiver on at least two-thirds
of the snaps. More recently, Travis Fulgham and Jalen Reagor combined
for a 1-5-10 line. Even better for the Giants, no cornerback in
the league has recorded more coverage snaps (392), so he's been
durable and dependable. And despite often facing the best of what
the opposition has to offer, Bradberry is getting targeted only
once every seven times he is in coverage and giving up a catch
only once every 12.6 coverage snaps on average (per Pro Football
Focus). Perhaps most impressively, he ranks seventh among cornerbacks
in yardage allowed per coverage snap (0.84), making him one of
only 10 that meet the 270 coverage snap criteria mentioned earlier
to accomplish that feat. Bradberry doesn't travel into the slot
very often (33 coverage snaps), however.
Remember how I said earlier cornerbacks ebb and flow in much
the same way offensive players do? That has definitely been the
case with Rhodes, who was No. 2 in last year's The
Delicious Dozen. Injuries have played a somewhat significant
role in his career, so one has to wonder if he was anywhere close
to 100 percent in 2019 with the Vikings - when he was easily one
of the worst cornerbacks in the league - since he is on track
to have the best season of his career this year. As mentioned
earlier with Moore, Indianapolis plays a ton of zone and Cover
2 in particular. "Cover 2 teams" don't typically believe
or ask their corners to travel with receivers, and the Colts aren't
breaking any new ground with their usage of Rhodes, who has lined
up on the right side of the defense 87.4 percent of the time in
2020. He hasn't been infallible by any means (he gave up a 73-yard
play to Marvin Hall in Week 8, for example), but Marvin Jones,
Kenny Golladay, Marquise Brown and A.J. Brown have combined for
two catches for 24 yards and a TD on seven targets in his coverage
over the last three contests. Weeks 8 and 9 are the only games
that quarterbacks have enjoyed a passer rating above 76.6 in his
coverage since the opener.
Week 11: Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Packers) Week 12: Corey Davis/A.J. Brown (Titans) Week 13: Will Fuller/Brandin Cooks (Texans) Week 14: Nelson Agholor (Raiders) Week 15: Will Fuller/Brandin Cooks (Texans) Week 16: Diontae Johnson (Steelers)
Howard's inclusion on this list suggests he is back to being
one of the better cornerbacks in the game after last year's disaster.
A closer look reveals he has run extremely hot or cold. In five
of his nine outings, quarterbacks have posted a passer rating
of 79.2 or lower when throwing in his coverage. In the other four
contests, they have enjoyed a passer rating of at least 100. In
three of those "good" games (against the Jaguars, 49ers
and Jets), quarterbacks finished a combined 0-for-11 on throws
in his coverage. Against better competition such as the Rams (Week
8) and Cardinals (Week 9), quarterbacks went 10-for-15. Robert
Woods caught all five of his targets for 68 yards and a touchdown
in his coverage, while Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins combined
for three receptions on four targets for 58 yards. He saw more
of Jalen Guyton versus the Chargers in Week 10, allowing three
catches for 15 yards on five targets. Howard shut down Deebo Samuel
on four targets in Week 6 but was torched for 106 yards on four
receptions by DK Metcalf one week earlier. It's a roundabout way
of saying Howard has been good at times but hasn't exactly been
a matchup to avoid. So why does he appear on this list? He makes
plays. His five interceptions rank second in the league.
Week 11: Tim Patrick/Jerry Jeudy (Broncos) Week 12: Denzel Mims/Breshad Perriman (Jets) Week 13: Tee Higgins/A.J. Green (Bengals) Week 14: Demarcus Robinson/Sammy Watkins (Chiefs) Week 15: Jakobi Meyers (Patriots) Week 16: Nelson Agholor (Raiders)
5. Jimmy Smith,
Ravens (Passer Rating Against: 61.2)
* Has spent 250 of his 396 snaps at right corner.
Smith's 270 coverage snaps were just enough to get him on this
list. He missed Week 10 with an ankle injury, although it's doubtful
playing the Patriots would have hurt his standing all that much.
He hasn't practiced since playing in Week 9, so keep that in mind
when considering his upcoming matchups. Smith has operated mostly
as a corner over the last four games after beginning the season
in more of a dual corner/safety role. He has been mostly exceptional
in his natural position in that four-game stretch as quarterbacks
are 6-for-16 for 43 yards in his coverage. Since the move, quarterbacks
just aren't looking his way all that often. Perhaps that in and
of itself is the biggest compliment that can be paid to a cornerback,
especially one that is 32 years old and has played through injuries
most of the season. During the aforementioned four-game span,
only Travis Fulgham (three) has been targeted more than twice
in Smith's coverage. There doesn't appear to be much of a timeline
for Smith's return, but it's important to note 250 of his 258
snaps as a perimeter cornerback have been on the right side, so
he isn't going to shadow any more than teammate Marcus Peters
will. It's also important to note Peters and Marlon Humphrey are
the primary corners for Baltimore, so it will be a fruitless task
more often than not for fantasy owners to try to predict what
matchups he will be getting each week.
Week 11: A.J. Brown (Titans) Week 12: Chase Claypool (Steelers) Week 13: Michael Gallup (Cowboys) Week 14: KhaDarel Hodge (Browns) Week 15: DJ Chark/Chris Conley (Jaguars) Week 16: Darius Slayton right (Giants)
Talking about players who fantasy owners don't have to worry
about shadowing, Fuller may be the most one-sided cornerback I
have come across in seven years of the Delicious and Dirty Dozen.
The solid play of rookie Jaylon Johnson has allowed the Bears
to be predictable in this regard and get away with it. Fuller
has been very stingy in two very important areas, permitting 26
catches on 54 targets in his coverage and limiting receivers to
a total of 47 yards after the catch. If that last number sounds
good, it's because it ranks third among corners who met the aforementioned
coverage snap criteria. Even more impressively, the last receiver
to catch more than one ball in his coverage was Josh Reynolds
in Week 7. Before that, it was Mike Evans in Week 5. While Chicago's
usage suggests we can't predict how often he'll be lining up across
from our favorite fantasy receivers, all we need to do is assume
more teams will attempt to copy Minnesota's plan of attack from
Week 10. Justin Jefferson did the bulk of his damage against Johnson
and Adam Thielen got free for both of his touchdowns as a result
of being isolated on slot corner Buster Skrine. Chicago is still
a bad matchup for most fantasy receivers, but the Vikings proved
it may take until 2021 before Johnson reaches Fuller's level,
allowing the Bears to be stingy against virtually every perimeter
wideout.
One of the reasons why I was so confident in the Bucs being my
third-ranked fantasy defense entering the season was the improvement
they made over the second half of last season and my belief in
DC Todd Bowles' ability to coach defense. A major reason Tampa
Bay went from awful to respectable on defense in 2019 was the
huge leap Davis made around the same time. The third-year corner
has done nothing but build on that finish, so much so that he
has operated as a shadow in about half of his team's games in
2020. Allen Robinson enjoyed a decent amount of success against
him in Week 5 and D.J. Moore stung him a bit in Week 10, but he
has proven himself and then some in two matchups against Michael
Thomas (combined five catches on eight targets for 42 yards in
two head-to-heads) and Davante Adams (3-5-33 in Week 6). Like
most of today's shadow cornerbacks, defensive coordinators tend
to use them as shadows only when the opponent has a receiver that
can almost singlehandedly destroy a defensive game plan. Perhaps
along with only Jalen Ramsey (at least on this list), Davis is
not a matchup fantasy owners want their receiver to be facing
now and especially not during the fantasy playoffs. Primary slot
receivers should be safe, however, as Davis has lined up inside
on only five percent of his coverage snaps this year.
Week 11: Josh Reynolds/Robert Woods (Rams) Week 12: Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) Week 13: bye Week 14: Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson (Vikings) Week 15: Julio Jones (Falcons) Week 16: Kenny Golladay (Lions)
Were it not for his inability to stay healthy (he's played 53
of a possible 89 games since entering the league as an undrafted
free-agent in 2015), Callahan would be more of a household name
than he is. True to form, the Rice product missed Week 9, although
that was his first absence of the season. Callahan has transitioned
into more of a full-time slot corner this year since a rough start
as the team's primary left cornerback and been mostly exceptional
(although he moved back outside in Week 10 to replace the benched
Michael Ojemudia). Among all cornerbacks, only Jaire Alexander
(89.9) ranks higher in PFF's coverage grade than Callahan (88.2).
Quarterbacks have not posted a passer rating higher than 70.8
in his coverage since Week 2, and he has allowed a total of 36
yards on seven catches and 20 targets over his last four outings.
In fact, since allowing completions on 10 of the first 11 passes
in his coverage to begin the season, the 29-year-old has yielded
a mere 13 receptions on 31 targets over his last six outings.
Based on comments made by HC Vic Fangio after Week 10, however,
Callahan will likely stay outside for the foreseeable future.
That might be a mistake considering what happened earlier in the
season to him as a primary perimeter corner and the fact he has
worked out of the slot so often in three years with Fangio. Moving
forward, we have to assume he'll remain at right cornerback, which
takes him from a matchup to avoid for primary slot receivers to
more of a middling matchup against perimeter wideouts.
Week 11: Mack Hollins/Jakeem Grant (Dolphins) Week 12: Michael Thomas (Saints) Week 13: Demarcus Robinson (Chiefs) Week 14: D.J. Moore (Panthers) Week 15: John Brown (Bills) Week 16: Mike Williams (Chargers)
Week 10 may have been Williams' coming-out party after
picking off Russell Wilson twice, but he's been a problem
for opponents all year long. It's fair to wonder at this point
if the Rams liked what they saw from him in practice so much last
year that they felt comfortable parting with Marcus Peters. With
Jalen Ramsey being deployed all over the field to extinguish whatever
fire DC Brandon Staley wants to put out on a particular play,
Williams is about as likely to line up across from the opponent's
top receiver as he is a tight end or running back. To that end,
the biggest performance Williams has given up in his coverage
(yardage-wise) is to George Kittle (two catches for 51 yards and
a touchdown). That kind of effort in his coverage has been the
exception much more than the rule, however, as Kittle's touchdown
is the only one he has allowed. Receivers in his coverage have
caught only 48.6 percent of their targets, and he's surrendered
more than two catches twice (none since Week 4). It's reasonable
to assume last week's two interceptions (giving him four for the
season) will make offensive coordinators think twice about attempting
to pick on him, but the reality is that play-callers don't have
the luxury of trying to avoid two cornerbacks. Ramsey already
receives that treatment more often than not. And given how often
both Ramsey and Williams move around in this defense, it is almost
pointless for fantasy owners to try to predict when and how often
their receiver will line up opposite of them.
Week 11: Antonio Brown (Buccaneers) Week 12: Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) Week 13: Christian Kirk (Cardinals) Week 14: Damiere Byrd (Patriots) Week 15: Breshad Perriman/Denzel Mims (Jets) Week 16: David Moore/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
