Ever since I began my fantasy
writing career in 2000, my focus has been the same: provide the
information and insight I felt was necessary to help readers win
as many fantasy championships as possible. That will not change.
However, it would be negligent on my part to pretend as if society
doesn't have more important things to focus on at the moment.
As a child, I can remember studying American history and thinking
how cool it would have been to be alive to witness certain points
of it and how fortunate I was to avoid other parts of it. (I'm
sure I wasn't the only one.) For better or worse, this year will
be one of those significant points in our history that children
will study in the generations to come. Do we want them to remember
it as a year where Americans were strong enough to survive a pandemic
AND take a major step forward from a human rights perspective?
We have the power now to make that history lesson a positive one
for those kids. I often joke that I constantly have to remind
myself human beings are supposed to be the most evolved creatures
on the planet (usually when someone does something stupid for
likes or views on social media), but there comes a time where
I wish I didn't feel compelled to make that joke. (I shared some
thoughts on Twitter last week that I believe are relevant
to where we are and what is happening in our country right now.)
Making the transition from real life to fantasy football, I am
sometimes blown away by the amount of information available to
us now as opposed to when I started playing this game more than
20 years ago. Unfortunately, almost all of the analysis is focused
on the offensive side of the ball. It makes sense. Fantasy football
is an offensive game, after all. However, ask most analysts about
placing more than a minimal amount of emphasis on potential matchups
for the upcoming season and the answer is usually some form of
"defense is highly volatile or too unpredictable from one
year to the next" and not seriously worth considering when
ranking players. For those folks, do you know what else is highly
volatile from one year to the next? Injuries, touchdown production,
job security, etc. That hasn't stopped the industry from hiring
injury experts, trying to predict TD production or writing articles
when Tua Tagovailoa will overtake Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami.
Ignoring potential defensive matchups is somewhat akin to taking
a rowboat or kayak out on the ocean, in my opinion. Sure, the
water may be peaceful and allow the rower to go from Point A to
Point B without incident eventually. But what if the water is
choppy? I realized as early as 2004 that I didn't like the idea
of my players then having to face the Ravens or the Steelers,
especially during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach
has evolved quite a bit from that initial premise, but I think
my track record of success speaks for itself and suggests there
is substantial value in forecasting what the ocean will be like
before the rower before he/she attempts his/her journey. The key
is giving potential matchups the proper amount of weight to a
player's evaluation.
That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses
operating out of sub packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) almost
70 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to take
a look at what each team will probably look like in base and sub-package
personnel. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how
each veteran defensive player who will be in those packages in
2020 graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites
like Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football
Reference, we can do that.
Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as
spotting a player with a weakness and exploiting that shortcoming
over and over. An important part of coaching in any sport is the
ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses,
so players will either get help or they'll get benched before
too long if they are struggling. Nevertheless, the goal of any
good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense
as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft"
side of a run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking
ability of the offensive line). It's also important to understand
that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every
play, so we are playing odds and not dealing with virtual certainties
(i.e. shadow cornerbacks sometimes "shadow" only 50-60
percent of the time.
Let's get to some fundamental points about Preseason Matchup
Analysis before we start:
1) My color-coding system has never been about last year's results
or last year's "strength of schedule." My PMA color
coding has always been predictive, not reactive;
2) The color coding in this four-part series is based on last
year only because we have no information about this season. Last
year's results help set the stage for this year, but they do not
define the stage.
3) A "base" is typically deployed on probable running
downs, so the content below for "Base" will be primarily
how front-seven defenders stack up against the run. Likewise,
sub packages focus on slowing down passing games, so my thoughts
for that area will focus primarily on coverage players.
The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution
of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy
owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount
of subjectivity that goes into my color coding when I analyze
matchups in advance of the Big Board. It is my hope this process
will reduce a lot of that and give my readers a look under the
hood, so to speak.
Key:
SHAD - A CB that shadowed
receivers in roughly half of the team's games last year and/or
is likely to do so again this season. Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that
particular discipline per PFF (100 point scale) White box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9
in that particular discipline Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9
in that particular discipline Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that
particular discipline
Italic (player name) - Rookie
or Free Agent likely to return to the team Bold print (player name) - Over 30 years of age
or will turn 30 by the start of the season
Grades - Run defense (RD),
pass rush (PR) and coverage (COV) Catch % - Catch percentage allowed in player's
coverage QB rating - Passer rating allowed in player's
coverage Percentages (left, right, etc.) - How often a
defensive back lined up at left or right cornerback or in the
slot. For safeties, time at free safety or in the box is included
to provide insight as to how often he is asked to help against
the run as opposed to how often he plays center field.
Base: Williams missed two games last season and
has been sidelined for six over the last three years. In the five
that "mattered," the Ravens have surrendered an average
of 131.4 yards rushing. The point to be made here is that while
one man will never hold the entire fortune of a particular part
of a defense in his hand, Baltimore's ability to stop the run consistently
and usually begins with Williams being in the lineup. Queen and
Harrison enter the pros with impressive college resumes, but their
inexperience appears to be the only potential weak link in this
front seven when it comes to stopping the run. Williams' presence
figures to make their job significantly easier, and it also could
push Campbell into another stratosphere (as if he needed the help).
The only major concern beyond the youth of the rookie linebackers
is the age of Baltimore's front - every projected starter will be
30 or older.
Sub: Queen was regarded as one of the draft's best
coverage linebackers, so while his inexperience may lead to some
early bumps in the road, it would be unwise to consider his presence
on passing downs a vulnerability. Peters gave up five touchdowns
in his coverage last season, but he also recorded five interceptions
as well. Receivers recorded a catch rate of 57.1 percent and quarterbacks
managed a passer rating of 72.8 in his coverage last season, so
he's not the weak link that he was perceived to be in recent years.
Whereas many teams fall off a bit when it comes to defending slot
receivers, such is not the case with Baltimore; more than half of
Humphrey's snaps took place inside. With Peters' aggressive tendencies
playing well in the Ravens' blitz-happy scheme (and having Thomas
patrolling the middle of the field to protect him), it's not until
we get to Smith and, more specifically, Averett, that Baltimore
looks like it can be exploited anywhere on defense. In other words,
fantasy owners who dare start their wideouts against the Ravens
may be just as successful playing the part-time receivers as the
starters.
Base: Cincinnati's base defense under DC Lou Anarumo
last season was the nickel package. It is expected to remain the
same in 2020. The arrival of Reader alone isn't going to save this
defense, but it should keep the Bengals from being among the league's
worst against the run. The absence of someone as impactful in the
run game as Reader greatly contributed to the poor rush defense
grades of Evans and Pratt. Wilson was considered one of the draft's
best prospects in terms of his ability to play the run. Cincinnati
believes the third-round rookie is a three-down NFL linebacker,
but his athletic measurables suggest he may be a target for offenses
- at least initially - although it is just as likely opponents will
not hesitate to attack Pratt based on last year's poor coverage
grade. Interestingly enough, both Wilson and Pratt began their college
careers as defensive backs.
Sub: Jackson played an extraordinarily high level
as a rookie in 2017 and fared well in 2018, so he's likely poised
for a rebound if the Bengals improve their pass rush as expected.
(Jackson revealed recently he played through a torn labrum last
year.) Waynes' three-year, $42 million contract this offseason makes
him an unquestioned starter opposite Jackson. While his presence
helps to solidify the back end, he will most likely be the cornerback
opponents target the most. Phillips was a revelation late last season,
putting him in a great spot to lock down the nickel back role. Ultimately,
Cincinnati's ability to become a league-average defense (or better)
in 2020 may come down to whether Reader can take advantage of the
1-on-1 opportunities he'll get playing next to Atkins.
Base: The Browns allowed six opponents to rush
for at least 146 yards last season, which is inexcusable for a
team with so much talent up front defensively. Giving up 416 rushing
yards to Baltimore and Garrett's season-ending suspension contributed
to those awful numbers, but they weren't the only reasons. The
addition of Billings should help, if only to give Cleveland a
massive 330-pound space-eater. If the ex-Bengal can have the desired
effect up front, then the relative inexperience of Phillips, Wilson
and Takitaki won't be as much of an issue. The biggest problem,
however, may be if new DC Joe Woods relies as heavily on nickel
personnel as predecessor Steve Wilks did (Woods hinted as much
during a late May press conference) in AFC North contests - a
division that features Lamar Jackson and Joe Mixon among others.
Opponents ran on the Browns an average of 28.9 times in 2019,
and not all of that can be attributed to an underachieving offense.
Sub: Ward allowed 31 catches and one touchdown
on 69 targets last season, building upon his solid rookie campaign
in 2018 and solidifying his place as one of the league's top young
corners. Garrett's sack rate of 3.5 percent was the highest in the
NFL among defensive linemen with at least 200 pass rushes. Delpit
was used in the same kind of way at LSU that former Tiger Tyrann
Mathieu has been used as a pro. If the rookie can approach a similar
level of effectiveness in that role, then the addition of versatile
chess pieces such as Sendejo and Delpit should make Cleveland a
formidable pass defense. Woods should be an upgrade on Wilks from
a strategy standpoint as well. If the Browns' nickel defense plays
out as listed above, then I would expect offensive coordinators
to do whatever they could with their running backs and tight ends
to get Joseph out in space. He's far from a liability in the passing
game and should benefit from an improved supporting cast in Cleveland,
but he can be careless at times and has struggled to stay healthy
throughout his four-year career with the Raiders.
Base: Outside of swapping out Javon Hargrave for
Wormley, there was very little change to one of fantasy's top defenses
last year. Age is starting to become a slight issue with three players
over 30, but it's not as if any of them have experienced a significant
drop-off in their play. While Bush was given the lowest run grade
among the front seven on the projected base defense above, that's
par for the course with a rookie and something that should get rectified
in a big way in 2020. Barring a key injury or two (something that
can be said for just about any team in any year), Pittsburgh should
field one of the most dominant defenses yet again.
Sub: While Dupree's emergence and Bush's arrival
were critical, Nelson's rise as a worthy complement to Haden and
the trade that brought Fitzpatrick to the Steelers were the two
most important developments in making the Steelers' defense what
it was last season. Anyone looking for a weakness in Pittsburgh's
sub packages may need to get nitpicky, but Edmunds is the weakest
link at the moment - and even that may be a stretch given that he
is a 215-pound safety who was used as a box defender on 43.5 percent
of his snaps in 2019. Outside of that, perhaps the best thing opponents
can hope for is Haden showing signs of decline in his age-31 season.
While receivers only enjoyed a 53.2 percent catch rate in his coverage
last season, Haden gave up six touchdowns. The best advice: avoid
just about any non-elite player when facing Pittsburgh this season.
Base: Much like Brandon Williams in Baltimore,
things go south quickly for the Bears when Hicks is not on the
field - especially on running downs. While his absence wasn't
the sole cause for Chicago's defensive decline last year, the
Bears held opponents to 100 yards rushing or less in five of the
six games he played but yielded over 100 in eight of 11 contests
without him. Smith was limited to 12 games, while Trevathan logged
only nine. In short, most teams simply aren't deep enough to handle
the loss of a player who attracts double teams AND both starting
inside linebackers without paying for it statistically. On paper,
the Bears' only potential shortcoming in their base defense could
be age.
Sub: Chicago has the potential to be a nasty pass
defense in 2020. Pairing Quinn with Mack was a masterstroke, and
the combination of Smith and Trevathan - players much better than
last year's coverage grades - should be able to hold most running
backs in check. Fuller's play dropped off last season, but one has
to wonder if the relative lack of a pass rush was the primary reason
for that. Johnson will almost certainly get targeted because he's
a rookie, but fantasy owners would be wise to be cautious relying
on that; he was considered a first-round talent by some analysts.
Jackson has already established himself as one of the league's best
safeties, leaving perennial punching bag Skrine as the one player
quarterbacks and fantasy owners should try to target on this defense.
Base: It might not look like it based on the
color codes above, but Detroit is starting to build a solid run
defense - one that got better with the additions of Shelton and
Collins. The rush defense was pretty solid during the second half
of the season as a whole, and it happened despite not getting
much help from noted run stuffer Damon "Snacks" Harrison.
If Davis can take advantage of the best protection he's had in
his career (going into his fourth and potentially final season
with the team) - it's a big if - then the run defense may push
for a top-10 finish.
Sub: It's a shame the Lions felt compelled to trade
Darius Slay (Eagles); a corner tandem of Okudah and Slay could have
been one of the league's best. Trufant is no slouch, however, and
should pair with the rookie to give Detroit its best duo in recent
memory. Okudah cannot be expected to line up elite No. 1 receivers
right away, but he could easily become that guy before the end of
the year. Detroit opted for man coverage more than any other team
in the league last year and used Slay as a shadow quite a bit, so
expect HC Matt Patricia to do the same thing with Okudah if he proves
up to the task. Coleman was considered one of the game's top nickelbacks
in 2017 and 2018 with the Seahawks, but he may be much more suited
for zone coverage (he did not grade out particularly well with New
England's man-heavy scheme to begin his career). He may be the weakest
link on this defense now. Harmon - yet another former Patriot -
and Walker have consistently graded out well in coverage throughout
their careers, meaning low-end tight ends and pass-catching running
backs (to a lesser extent) could struggle against this defense as
well.
Base: The Packers' rush defense got better as
the season progressed (at least until the conference championship
game), but there reasons for concern that an average run-stopping
unit will suffer following the loss of Blake Martinez and got
no real help through the draft. Clark remains a force in the middle
of the line, but Kirksey has largely disappointed through six
NFL seasons and Burks has played limited defensive snaps despite
being a third-rounder two years ago. Preston and Za'Darius Smith
were added via free agency last year to rush the quarterback and
performed that task quite well, but only the latter should be
considered a plus when it comes to stopping the running game.
Sub: Green Bay's secondary performed well as
a whole in 2019, riding the pass-rushing Smiths and some sticky
coverage - occasionally as a shadow against some of the more elite
receivers - from Alexander, who should become a household name
fairly soon. Savage and Amos are nearly interchangeable (box versus
free) with their usage at safety and should make life difficult
for tight ends. Waived by Philadelphia last May, Sullivan thrived
in Green Bay and should have a vice-grip on third corner/nickelback
duties after coming on strong late. King stepped up his play enough
in his third year not to be considered a matchup to exploit, but
there were still enough bumps in the road despite his five interceptions
to make him the target of choice heading into the 2020 season.
Base: While the Vikings did not quite clean
house, their defense will have a much different look in 2020.
Pierce is an upgrade over Linval Joseph and a 340-pound stud against
the run; he might cede a few snaps on passing downs to Shamar
Stephen though. Lynch won't wow anyone with his athleticism, but
he should be an immediate starter and was quite effective at getting
into the backfield at Baylor. Outside of how quickly the rookie
adjusts to the pros, perhaps the only other question mark that
exists along the front seven is Odenigbo. The 2018 seventh-round
selection has logged only 106 run defense snaps in his two NFL
seasons and just missed finishing in the red both times. Fourth-rounder
D.J. Wonnum could relegate him to passing downs, but the defensive
end spot opposite Hunter figures to be a weak spot either way.
Sub: Minnesota parted with three long-time veteran
cornerbacks in Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander
as well as safety Andrew Sendejo, so youth will be served in a
secondary. Hughes is a 2018 first-round pick who has been snake-bitten
so far in his two-year career, tearing his ACL as a rookie before
suffering a broken vertebra in his neck late last season. He's
got the talent to be a team's top corner, but his grades have
yet to reflect that. Hill has the size to match up with bigger
receivers, but he infuriated the coaching staff with two separate
four-game suspensions last year. Gladney could hit training camp
as the readiest of the bunch to contribute immediately, but his
injury history cannot be minimized either. In short, it will take
a solid coaching job from HC Mike Zimmer to get this defense to
approach last year's rankings against the pass. Thankfully, Smith
and Harris form one of the best safety tandems in the league and
are exceptional in coverage, making it unlikely opponents will
consistently get much out of their tight ends or many plays downfield.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13
and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio
shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
