I am sometimes blown away by the amount of information available
to us now as opposed to when I started playing this game more
than 20 years ago. Unfortunately, almost all of the analysis is
focused on the offensive side of the ball. It makes sense. Fantasy
football is an offensive game, after all. However, ask most analysts
about placing more than a minimal amount of emphasis on potential
matchups for the upcoming season and the answer is usually some
form of "defense is highly volatile or too unpredictable
from one year to the next" and not seriously worth considering
when ranking players. For those folks, do you know what else is
highly volatile from one year to the next? Injuries, touchdown
production, job security, etc. That hasn't stopped the industry
from hiring injury experts, trying to predict TD production or
writing articles when Tua Tagovailoa will overtake Ryan Fitzpatrick
in Miami.
Ignoring potential defensive matchups is somewhat akin to taking
a rowboat or kayak out on the ocean, in my opinion. Sure, the
water may be peaceful and allow the rower to go from Point A to
Point B without incident eventually. But what if the water is
choppy? I realized as early as 2004 that I didn't like the idea
of my players then having to face the Ravens or the Steelers,
especially during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach
has evolved quite a bit from that initial premise, but I think
my track record of success speaks for itself and suggests there
is substantial value in forecasting what the ocean will be like
before the rower before he/she attempts his/her journey. The key
is giving potential matchups the proper amount of weight to a
player's evaluation.
That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses
operating out of sub packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) almost
70 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to take
a look at what each team will probably look like in base and sub-package
personnel. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how
each veteran defensive player who will be in those packages in
2020 graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites
like Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football
Reference, we can do that.
Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as
spotting a player with a weakness and exploiting that shortcoming
over and over. An important part of coaching in any sport is the
ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses,
so players will either get help or they'll get benched before
too long if they are struggling. Nevertheless, the goal of any
good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense
as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft"
side of a run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking
ability of the offensive line). It's also important to understand
that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every
play, so we are playing odds and not dealing with virtual certainties
(i.e. shadow cornerbacks sometimes "shadow" only 50-60
percent of the time.
Let's get to some fundamental points about Preseason Matchup
Analysis before we start:
1) My color-coding system has never been about last year's results
or last year's "strength of schedule." My PMA color
coding has always been predictive, not reactive;
2) The color coding in this four-part series is based on last
year only because we have no information about this season. Last
year's results help set the stage for this year, but they do not
define the stage.
3) A "base" is typically deployed on probable running
downs, so the content below for "Base" will be primarily
how front-seven defenders stack up against the run. Likewise,
sub packages focus on slowing down passing games, so my thoughts
for that area will focus primarily on coverage players.
The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution
of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy
owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount
of subjectivity that goes into my color coding when I analyze
matchups in advance of the Big Board. It is my hope this process
will reduce a lot of that and give my readers a look under the
hood, so to speak.
Key:
SHAD - A CB that shadowed
receivers in roughly half of the team's games last year and/or
is likely to do so again this season. Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that
particular discipline per PFF (100 point scale) White box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9
in that particular discipline Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9
in that particular discipline Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that
particular discipline
Italic (player name) - Rookie
or Free Agent likely to return to the team Bold print (player name) - Over 30 years of age
or will turn 30 by the start of the season
Grades - Run defense (RD),
pass rush (PR) and coverage (COV) Catch % - Catch percentage allowed in player's
coverage QB rating - Passer rating allowed in player's
coverage Percentages (left, right, etc.) - How often a
defensive back lined up at left or right cornerback or in the
slot. For safeties, time at free safety or in the box is included
to provide insight as to how often he is asked to help against
the run as opposed to how often he plays center field.
Base: As has seemingly been the case for most of
his career, Watt must stay healthy for Houston to have a chance
to be good defensively. Timmy Jernigan would have been a solid addition
to replace D.J. Reader, but the team's inability to complete a free-agent
deal with him puts even more pressure on either Blackson to step
up or rookie Ross Blacklock to make noise early. Had Houston been
able to keep Reader and add Jernigan to play opposite Watt, the
Texans could have a potentially dominant front. As it is now, they
need 2019 fifth-rounder Omenihu to take another big step forward
after a promising rookie season. If all the "ifs" managed
to work out in the Texans' favor upfront, they can be an average
rush defense. The problem is none of their reserve defensive linemen
graded out particularly well as a run defender last season, so the
run defense could be even worse this year under first-time DC Anthony
Weaver.
Sub: Quarterbacks posted a passer rating of at
least 104.2 against four of Houston's projected back seven defenders
last year. Roby proved to be a solid addition last offseason and
his heavy usage in the slot last season suggests that it's not a
given the opponent's top receiver will be able to escape him all
that often. Conley played better for Houston after arriving via
trade around midseason than he did during most of his time with
the Raiders, while Johnson has all the physical skills to be a good
- if not great - corner. However, even if we assume the best for
both in 2020, they have a long way to go just to get to average
after combining to allow 13 touchdown passes in their coverage versus
one interception last season. As a result, expect opponents to relentlessly
attack the perimeter on clear passing situations (assuming Roby
is playing inside more often than not). Houston added Murray in
part because he can play safety and in the slot, but it's a stretch
to ask just about any safety - no matter how versatile - to be an
above-average slot defender. Throw in the fact Cunningham has seen
his coverage grade decline in each of his three seasons as a pro
and there are potential weaknesses galore for offensives to exploit.
Base: Walker was the only projected starter in
the base defense to warrant a red grade as a run defender last year.
While it is difficult to spin his low grade (43.5) positively, it's
important to note a middle or inside linebacker's ability to play
the run often depends greatly on how often the guys in front of
him - specifically defensive tackles - occupy blockers and allow
him to roam freely. Although the addition of Buckner was made mostly
with the intent of improving the pass rush, it should go without
saying that he will be the first Colts' interior defensive lineman
in some time that will attract double teams. Considering Okereke
and Leonard are ridiculous athletes and sideline-to-sideline players,
all Walker will need to do is take care of his business in between
the tackles. Assuming this happens, the Colts could very well be
a daunting matchup for opposing running games in 2020.
Sub: If Turay can stay healthy this year and the
31-year-old Houston can turn back the clock a bit, Indianapolis
has the potential of fielding a fearsome four-man rush on passing
downs. Leonard is quite capable in coverage, but the secondary has
far more question marks. Rhodes allowed a catch rate of 84.3 percent
with Minnesota last year and was easily one of the worst regular
starting cornerbacks in the league. He will go from one zone-heavy
defense to another, and it's fair to wonder if he can regain his
form in his age-30 season. Ya-Sin took his fair share of lumps as
a rookie, but it's hard to imagine a player with his competitiveness
not making a significant improvement in Year 2. He could quickly
emerge as the team's best perimeter corner. Moore has settled nicely
into slot duties and should remain more of a matchup to avoid. But
perhaps more than anyone else in the secondary, the one player that
can take this defense from an average pass defense to a good one
is Hooker, who has yet come close to playing a full season. If that
changes in 2020, the combination of his intelligence and ball skills,
an improved pass rush and Indy's zone defense could lead to a ton
of interceptions over the middle of the field.
Base: The loss of Calais Campbell (and his 90.6
run defense grade) is a huge hit, but it goes to show just how
much work the Jaguars have to do when one considers they were
such a poor run-stopping unit with him around. That's not to say
things are hopeless in Duval County when it comes to stopping
running backs, but it doesn't look good. Over the second half
of the season, opponents rushed for an average of 170 yards against
this defense. The additions of Gunter and third-round DT DaVon
Hamilton - along with Jones - will add some much-needed beef to
the interior of the defensive line, but that's not near enough
to replace Campbell. It's going to take a player like former first-round
pick Bryan to live up to his draft spot and better play from Jack
for Jacksonville to avoid getting trampled on the ground.
Sub: Last year's grades don't offer much hope for
the Jaguars improving much against the pass, and much will depend
on if Ngakoue is giving his all for a team he no longer wants to
play for - assuming he shows up to play at all this season. However,
Jacksonville should field a substantially better defense than it
did last year when it goes into its sub packages. Allen is poised
to be a star sooner than later and Henderson figures to be an upgrade
over what A.J. Bouye gave the team in 2019. Jack is far too athletic
to post a 46.0 coverage grade again, Herndon allowed a catch rate
of 48.7 percent last year and Hayden fared well in the slot. Schobert
has graded out well in coverage over the last two seasons as well.
With that said, Henderson can't be expected to emerge as a stud
as a rookie, so the Jaguars are unlikely to present much in the
way of bad matchups for players at any fantasy position.
Base: The trade of Jurrell Casey to Denver is key
because it cost the Titans their best run defender. Crawford was
signed to replace him, but he is better served to be more of a rotational
player. He sticks out like a sore thumb above with his red run defense
grade (45.5), but it should be noted he's just one season removed
from a grade in the 70s with Atlanta. Perhaps fifth-round rookie
Larrell Murchison makes it a moot point by proving he can be the
same disruptive force he was at North Carolina State. It may not
end up being a big deal considering Jones has been a stout run defender
since 2015 and Simmons was considered by some to be the most talented
defensive lineman in the 2019 draft, falling down the board only
because he tore his ACL while training for the NFL Combine. If the
Titans hope to match or improve their ranking against the run this
year, they'll need some good injury luck though. There is not a
wealth of talent behind any of the starters at any position in the
front seven.
Sub: Joseph's signing isn't the big deal it would
have been about five years ago, but he should be an adequate second
corner at the very least despite his advanced age (36). Fulton may
move ahead of him on the depth chart before the end of the year
if he proves to be a quick study, but it is a near certainty that
opponents will make him prove it regardless with Jackson lingering
on the opposite side of the field (or in the slot, as the team recently
suggested). Regardless, as long as Byard maintains his high level
of play and Jackson stays healthy, the Titans should be able to
cover up most of the issues created by Joseph's age or Fulton's
inexperience. Tennessee tried to upgrade its pass rush by signing
Beasley and should benefit from having Simmons for a full season,
but the coaching staff would be wise to lean on Derrick Henry and
the running game again in 2020 to limit how often this defense must
take the field. Between Evans (40.7 coverage grade last season),
the aforementioned second corner situation and maybe even Vaccaro,
the Titans could have a potential weak link in coverage at three
positions in nickel packages.
Base: We saw what the Falcons could be defensively
immediately after Raheem Morris took over play-calling duties
from HC Dan Quinn around midseason, shutting down the Saints and
Panthers in consecutive weeks to spark the team's 6-2 finish.
Is it repeatable? Atlanta poured a good deal of resources into
the defense this spring, but the only certain impact defenders
remain Jarrett and Jones. (Fowler graded out well against the
run last year with the Rams, but his addition was mostly about
what he could give the pass rush.) The wild-card here is Cominsky.
If he can maintain his solid work on limited run snaps and live
up to the coaching staff's high expectations as a pass rusher,
this defense could emerge as a sneaky good unit with some depth
in the front seven - against the run and the pass. If not, the
Falcons' undersized linebacker corps - Jones is the heaviest projected
starter in the base defense at 222 pounds - could get manhandled
from time to time, especially by power rushing attacks.
Sub: Atlanta lost the one starting defensive back
that did not finish in the red in coverage last season when Desmond
Trufant left for Detroit. The Falcons held running backs in check
in the passing game for the first time in years last season and
should be able to do so again if Jones and Oluokun remain healthy,
but there's a good chance that success was largely a product of
opponents taking advantage of the team's defensive backs. It helps
the cause somewhat that Atlanta plays a fair amount of zone, but
there is not a single player in the secondary who strikes fear into
the hearts of offensive coordinators around the league at the moment.
The Falcons desperately need Fowler and Cominsky to complement Jarrett
so the secondary doesn't get exposed. The most likely outcome is
that Atlanta will show flashes of greatness but not improve much
on last year's pass defense numbers, making the Falcons a plus matchup
for receivers.
Base: The Panthers were justified in spending
all their draft picks on the defensive side of the ball this spring.
Brown should be the anchor in the middle of their defense for
years to come and has All-Pro upside. Thompson has been a stud
for a while, and Chinn is a very good prospect as well. But make
no mistake about it: new DC Phil Snow has work to do if he hopes
to avoid having the worst defense in the league this year. The
retirement of Kuechly means the heart and soul of the defense
is gone, the departures of Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe leave
Carolina without its two most highly ranked run defenders last
year and the loss of James Bradberry robbed the team of its best
cover man. Short turned 31 over the winter and played only two
games last year due to a shoulder injury. IF 2020 was not the
beginning of the end for him, he and Brown could make it rough
for running games to run between the tackles. Whitehead and Thompson
are solid against the run as well, but there are just too many
question marks elsewhere to believe this rush defense won't struggle.
Sub: Just as they should help disrupt running games,
Brown and Short need to play well on passing downs this season for
the Panthers to have much of chance. If they do that, Carolina has
a chance to be decent against the pass. Burns was drafted for his
pass-rushing abilities and Haynes owns school records for sacks
and tackles for losses at Ole Miss. Weatherly was passable in a
part-time role for Minnesota as well. Apple was a much-needed, under-the-radar
signing, but he's been an up-and-down performer so far in his career.
Jackson has all the speed in the world, but he took a step back
in 2019. With Elliott and Luke expected to come on the field in
nickel and dime packages, it is clear Carolina will struggle with
no proven cornerbacks in a division in which each of its opponents
goes at least two-deep with stud receivers.
Base: An asterisk belongs with the run grades
of several members of the Saints' front seven, as a shoulder injury
limited Anzalone to two games, Rankins blew out his Achilles in
mid-December and Alonso missed three games late in the season
with a knee/quad issue before tearing his ACL in the playoffs.
When everyone is healthy, this unit is more than capable of improving
on last year's rush defense numbers. Anzalone is the only one
of the base defenders that could be considered a weak link against
the run. Fortunately, third-rounder Zack Baun could be an immediate
upgrade in that regard.
Sub: The secondary was not immune to injury
either, as both of their top slot corners (Patrick Robinson and
P.J. Williams) missed multiple games. Fortune was on their side,
however, as they were gifted Janoris Jenkins off waivers and acquired
Eli Apple for a couple of late picks. Jenkins played well down
the stretch for New Orleans, giving the Saints a formidable outside
duo. Lattimore shadowed some of the league's top wideouts throughout
the season more often than not, so fantasy owners aren't going
to want to target questionable receiver matchups against New Orleans.
If Robinson can reclaim his form in the slot (or Gardner-Johnson
earns the slot snaps the coaching staff thinks he will), slot
receivers should also be considered off-limits. Marcus Williams
operated as a free safety for the bulk of 2019. Regardless of
whether he cedes some of those snaps in center field to Malcolm
Jenkins, tight ends may struggle against this defense as well,
leaving running backs singled up against Alonso as the best way
to move the ball through the air versus the Saints.
Base: The same rush defense that held all but
three opponents under 100 yards rushing last season remains virtually
intact along the front seven. The case can be made that Suh and
Vea both warrant double teams, while David and White may become
the best inside linebacker combination in the league soon. There
is a bit of a drop-off from Beau Allen to Gholston, but it's unlikely
to make that much of a difference to opponents or fantasy owners.
The Buccaneers should once again field a run defense that opponents
and fantasy owners want to avoid.
Sub: In retrospect, Tampa Bay's pass defense
woes should not have come as a surprise last season. Dean was
a rookie and Davis was in his second season. Promisingly, Davis
allowed a catch rate of only 52.4 percent and Dean checked in
at 48.9. Either way, it didn't take long for opponents to figure
out throwing the ball at the youngsters - and perhaps more specifically
attacking the safeties - would present the path of least resistance.
The Buccaneers faced a league-high 41.5 pass attempts as a result
- 3.3 per game more than any other team - so frankly it's a bit
surprising they didn't rank last by a wide margin. The addition
of Winfield probably cannot be overstated; he should be the long-term
answer in center field, and his impact could be felt right away.
Pierre-Paul and Barrett - the reigning sack champion - each possess
double-digit sack upside, while David and White should be expected
to cover as well as any linebackers in the league. If Winfield
ls the answer at free safety, the pass defense could also become
a matchup fantasy owners want to avoid in short order, particularly
with how often DC Todd Bowles likes to blitz.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13
and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio
shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
