High-end NFL Player Comp(s):Aaron Rodgers Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Best Scheme Fit: Hard to argue
that his best fit is in a true spread, run-pass option offense,
although the number of timing throws he made in college bode well
for his ability to thrive in a more traditional offense as well.
Career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 78:11 only underscores
how good his decision-making process is.
Played his best against the best; in seven 2019 games against
the stiffest competition (Texas, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia,
Oklahoma and Clemson), he averaged 397 yards passing to go along
with a 27:2 TD-to-INT ratio.
Takes sacks he doesn't need to and/or occasionally holds on
to the ball too long as opposed to moving on to the next down.
( 2:00 , 3:20 , 6:18 , 9:24 )
Does not always see/react to a late change in coverage. ( 9:04 , 10:16 )
Occasionally floats a ball outside the numbers and/or struggles
to drive the ball as far down the field as he should. (
0:29 , 2:24 , 4:45 , 5:05 )
Fair to wonder how much his improvement from 2018 to 2019
was a product of his development and how much of it was OC Joe
Brady's NFL concepts.
Andrew Luck was unquestionably one of the most accurate quarterback
prospects of the last decade. Burrow is in that class in terms
of accuracy. It's almost as if anything within 20 yards is an
extended handoff. LSU's up-tempo, RPO-heavy offense - along with
the Tigers' plethora of NFL-ready receiving weapons - certainly
showcased just how high of a ceiling Burrow has. Yet, even in
an ideal situation against average competition, a quarterback
capable of averaging 378 yards passing and posting a 10:1 TD-to-INT
ratio is ridiculous. Throwing for 60 touchdowns in a season is
equally absurd. To do all of this in the best conference in college
football and make it look mostly effortless is beyond amazing.
Burrow is not a perfect prospect, however. No matter how gaudy
his production was in 2019, it was just one season and doesn't
erase the fact he was a sub-60 percent passer in 2018. There's
also no question a great deal of his 2019 production was the result
of letting his talented backs and receivers picking up massive
chunks of yards after the catch on quick-hitters (flares, slants,
etc.). It is also fairly obvious he doesn't like giving up on
plays and living for another down, which is an admirable trait
when things work out and an undesirable trait when the don't.
Like most young signal-callers, he also needs to gain a better
appreciation for when he should put his body in harm's way as
a runner and when he is better served settling for a short gain.
With that said, two of the most desirable characteristics a quarterback
prospect entering the league can possess is accuracy and the ability
to win the chess game that football often becomes at the pro level.
Burrow has both in spades. The Rodgers comp is a very high bar
for the Ohio native, but that kind of ceiling is within reach
considering his accuracy, awareness and vision - the last two
of which may have been the biggest reasons he thrived in LSU's
spread attack in 2019. A more reasonable expectation is Romo,
who did a good job of extending plays for most of his career and
was an underrated athlete. So while it may be scary to trust one
year of production in college, Burrow doesn't have the feel of
a player that will bust. A more likely outcome is he evolves into
a top-10 quarterback in the league by the time he is ready to
sign his second contract.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.