Eight years ago, I introduced "The Dirty Dozen" and "The
Delicious Dozen" around Thanksgiving time. The idea then -
as it is today - was to identify negative and positive receiver
matchups, respectively, as a way to prepare owners for the upcoming
stretch of fantasy games that usually determine fantasy championships.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down - and few do it in much detail. Until this
becomes a more common practice, there will be thousands of owners
who will avoid matchups they shouldn't and vice versa.
The point is the fantasy industry as a whole tends to rely on
name recognition when it comes to avoiding a potential matchup
rather than do some research to find out which defenders are playing
well consistently. They also tend to stick with their opinions
about struggling corners for far too long when they finally break
through and begin playing well. The truth is defensive players
ebb and flow in much the same way offensive players do.
Note: The cutoff for this piece was 300
coverage snaps. At roughly 30 coverage snaps per game, we should
be able to eliminate any players who are not "full-timers."
Below each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected
matchups each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please
keep in mind that receivers move across the formation a lot, while
most defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their corners
on one side of the formation, so this is far from an exact science.
In cases in which a receiver there isn't a discernible difference
in how often a receiver plays on one side of the field or the
other (which is quite common), the most likely player to see primary
coverage from the cornerback below will be listed first and the
receiver expected to see less of him will be listed second
*** - Indicates the cornerback has been/will be used as a "shadow"
12. Mike Hilton, Bengals (Passer Rating Against: 108.2)
* Has lined up in the slot on 425 of his 495 defensive snaps.
Hilton built a strong reputation for his pass-rushing abilities
in his four seasons with the Steelers. Over that time, he never
logged fewer than 60 pass-rush snaps and never surpassed 400 coverage
snaps. Through 10 games with the Bengals, he is at 29 and 334,
respectively. All of this is to say that Cincinnati is not using
maximizing one of his best assets - at least not yet - and using
him more often in coverage than Pittsburgh ever did. Last season
was Hilton's worst in coverage (62.0 coverage grade, per PFF)
and he has not been much better this year, although he has turned
in three of his best efforts as a Bengal in the last four games
after a rough six-game stretch to begin the season. While he has
only given up two touchdown catches in his coverage through 10
games, the primary reasons he finds himself on this list are that
he has yet to come up with an interception, recorded only two
pass breakups and allowed 80.4 percent of the throws in his coverage
to be completed.
Week 12: James Washington/Chase Claypool (Steelers) Week 13: Keenan Allen (Chargers) Week 14: Jauan Jennings/Deebo Samuel (49ers) Week 15: Jerry Jeudy (Broncos) Week 16: Devin Duvernay (Ravens) Week 17: Tyreek Hill/Byron Pringle (Chiefs)
* Has lined up in the slot on 375 of his 434 defensive snaps.
It is never a good thing when one team has multiple players on
this list. Alexander is the first of the two for Minnesota, which
enters Week 12 as the fourth-best matchup for fantasy receivers.
The former second-round pick returned to the Vikings in 2021 after
an unremarkable four-year stay with Minnesota and an unsuccessful
one-year stint with the Bengals last year. He is not having any
more success in his sixth season. Alexander's passer rating against
has declined every year since he became a full-time player in
2017. To that end, he has allowed quarterbacks to compile a passer
rating of at least 118.8 five times already in 2021. His PFF coverage
grade is at a career-low 46.4 through 10 games this season. Alexander
has been reasonable in terms of limiting the receiver's ability
to catch the ball in his coverage (catch rate of 67.4 allowed),
but his biggest issue so far has been surrendering a ton of yards
after the catch (237, 28 off his career high). Minnesota does
not have any other appealing options to replace him in the slot,
so this should be a matchup that keeps on giving as the season
progresses.
Week 12: Jauan Jennings/Deebo Samuel (49ers) Week 13: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) Week 14: James Washington/Chase Claypool (Steelers) Week 15: Allen Robinson/Darnell Mooney (Bears) Week 16: Cooper Kupp (Rams) Week 17: Allen Lazard/Davante Adams (Packers)
PFF's coverage grades do not always match up well with the passer
rating a cornerback allows in his coverage. Such is the case so
far this year with Griffin, who has graded out at 72.7 in coverage
but ranks inside the top 10 among full-time corners in terms of
passer rating against. The latter number should not come as a
big surprise as most corners will struggle to hold up consistently
when the pass rush struggles to get home, as is the case with
Jacksonville. Griffin has only had one bad game - allowing a pair
of touchdowns to DK Metcalf in Week 8 - and played better in the
last month, but he is still paying the price for a rough start
to the season and has yet to record an interception. On the plus
side, he is generally not giving up much after the catch (no more
than 13 yards in any game) and quarterbacks are not throwing his
way as much as they were in September. Unlike most defenses, the
Jaguars have not left their cornerbacks in one spot very much,
as Griffin has played on the left side on 38 percent of his snaps
and on the right 57 percent of the time. He's not shadowing, so
projecting his primary matchup will often come to guessing whether
or not Jacksonville's coaches decide they prefer his size (6-0
and almost 200 pounds) on the opponent's most physical receiver
or want rookie Tyson Campbell (6-2 and 185 pounds) to do it.
* Has lined up on the left side on 538 of his 679 defensive snaps.
Like Griffin, Hall's PFF coverage grade (74.9) and his passer
rating against do not match up very well. On three occasions this
season, the second-year cornerback has sported a coverage grade
of at last 75.2; only twice has he fallen below 60. He also has
recorded a very respectable seven pass breakups. The primary reason
he appears on this list, however, is that he gave up a touchdown
catch in three straight games during Weeks 7-9. While he has not
allowed a TD since, he has yielded a catch on 23 of 32 targets
in his coverage since Week 4 (seven of 14 through the first four
games). Much like 2020 Delicious Dozen graduates Darius Slay,
Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell, Hall is someone I expect to be
a cornerstone player for this defense as early as 2022. He is
more likely to be a member of Dirty Dozen in 2022 (when the Jets
will likely have a better pass rush) than end up on this list
again.
8. Steven
Nelson, Eagles (Passer Rating Against: 111.1)
* Has lined up on the right side on 515 of his 729 defensive
snaps.
Sometimes, cornerbacks struggle because they do not belong in
the NFL. Other times, they struggle because they work opposite
of a player that quarterbacks would rather avoid. While Nelson
could be declining in his seventh NFL season as he nears 29 years
of age, the most likely answer is that opponents do not want to
throw at Darius Slay any more than they have to. Then again, Nelson
is not doing much to discourage it. Over the last six games, his
coverage grade has topped out at 60.3. In that same span, he has
allowed 18 of 25 targets in his coverage to be completed. Perhaps
the most appalling thing about Nelson this year is this nugget:
among the 52 corners that have logged at least 300 snaps, the
average depth of target in Nelson's coverage is 9.8 yards (23rd).
Yet, he ranks 19th in that group in yards allowed with 423. With
Slay locked in as the starter on one side and Avonte Maddox a
fixture in the slot, this is a matchup fantasy managers should
be able to continue taking advantage of for the rest of the season.
Week 12: Kenny Golladay (Giants) Week 13: Elijah Moore (Jets) Week 14: bye Week 15: Terry McLaurin (Washington) Week 16: Kenny Golladay (Giants) Week 17: Terry McLaurin (Washington)
* Has lined up on the left side on 418 of his 504 defensive snaps.
Fair or not, Breeland has long been a target for DFS players
and shrewd redraft managers. Although he has managed to keep things
under control since about the beginning of October, his rough
start guaranteed his appearance in this piece. Over the first
three games of the season, Breeland surrendered 256 yards and
four touchdowns. In the seven games since, he has given up a more
modest 304 yards and zero touchdowns. That is not to say he has
been great, however, as he coughed up 139 yards in Week 8 to CeeDee
Lamb and Amari Cooper. That effort came one game after he allowed
zero catches on six targets against Carolina. Excluding that performance
against the Panthers, Breeland has yielded a catch on 42 of 55
targets in his coverage for the season. While there is always
a chance he will be pulled from the starting lineup at some point,
it should be clear from the presence of Mackensie Alexander on
this list above that Minnesota does not have many quality options
after Patrick Peterson.
* Has lined up on the left side on 523 of his 661 defensive snaps.
In theory, Jenkins was an aging player Tennessee was hoping to
squeeze one more out of before turning things over to the young
pups such as Elijah Molden, Kristian Fulton and 2021 first-round
pick Caleb Farley. However, the Titans lost Farley for the season
a few weeks ago and are well on track to set an NFL record for
most players by a team in one season. Jenkins has been awful in
three games in 2021 (6-69-1 on seven targets in Week 1, 6-110-0
on nine targets in Week 4 and 4-54-2 on four targets in Week 6),
but the fact he has allowed a passer rating of at least 100 in
five games suggests he will continue to be an easy target moving
forward. It is worth noting he had turned in two of his top three
coverage days per PFF prior to sitting out Week 11 with a chest
injury. How he bounces back from that injury is anyone's guess,
but it is worth noting that he has allowed 60 percent or less
of the passes thrown in his coverage to be completed in three
of his last four outings. That could be as much of a sign that
the front seven doing a better job of rushing the passer as it
could be a hint that Jenkins is playing better.
Given New England's recent play on defense, it is a bit surprising
to see someone from the Pats' secondary appears on here. With
that said, there is also a reason Philadelphia didn't try harder
to keep him after five seasons. At his best, Mills is more of
a hybrid cornerback/safety who does not have to start and can
give a defense the flexibility of having a safety with cornerback
skills to defend a slower and/or bigger receiver or a seam-stretching
tight end equally well. That is not happening so much recently,
as last week's shutout against an injury-ravaged Atlanta offense
was only the second time since Week 3 that Mills did not record
a passer rating against of at least 115. (The other time was during
a Sam Darnold meltdown game in Week 9.) Considering how well fellow
perimeter starter J.C. Jackson is playing and how HC Bill Belichick
tends to operate on defense, Jackson will likely continue to play
against the opponent's No. 2 receiver most weeks while Mills works
against the No. 1 and will receive safety help over the top. Assuming
that is the case, there is no reason to expect Mills' fortunes
to change for the better anytime soon.
* Has lined up on the right side on 411 of his 566 defensive
snaps.
It took a long time last year before most fantasy managers realized
Lattimore was a cornerback to target. He is on pace to have an
even worse season in 2021. It is the primary reason why the Saints
rank as one of the five best matchups for fantasy receivers this
season. However, we need a bit of context here. It appears Lattimore
gets bored easily because he has been effective when asked to
shadow in 2021:
Week 1: Davante Adams - 5-56-0
Week 5: Terry McLaurin 4-46-0
Week 7: DK Metcalf - 2-96-1
Week 8: Mike Evans - 2-48-1
Week 11: DeVonta Smith - 4-61-0
As good as that looks, he has nonetheless allowed quarterbacks
to post a passer rating of at least 118.8 in five straight outings.
In the first three games of that stretch, he surrendered four
TDs. Tennessee and Philadelphia were not able to beat him for
a score over the last two weeks, but he still managed to give
up at least 70 yards receiving in four of the five rough games
and more than 100 yards in three of those five.
Week 12: Stefon Diggs (Bills) Week 13: Amari Cooper (Cowboys) Week 14: Corey Davis/Elijah Moore (Jets) Week 15: Mike Evans (Buccaneers) Week 16: DeVante Parker (Dolphins) Week 17: D.J. Moore (Panthers)
* Has lined up on the right side on 529 of his 641 defensive
snaps.
Most of the public would never know it based on the current state
of the team, but A.J. Terrell has emerged as one of the best cornerbacks
in the league this season. It should come as no shock then that
quarterbacks are targeting him less and every other one of his
teammates in the secondary more. Then again, last year with Washington
was the one season that Moreau played at something approaching
a league-average level. (He was a part-time player in 2020, for
what it is worth.) He has already surrendered six touchdowns in
2021 - two times more than his previous career high - and allowed
quarterbacks to post a passer rating of at least 110.7 in his
coverage six times. With 4 1/2 years of evidence supporting it,
Moreau is a player that fantasy managers want to target week after
week.
Week 12: Laquon Treadwell/Marvin Jones (Jaguars) Week 13: Mike Evans/Antonio Brown (Buccaneers) Week 14: Robby Anderson/DJ Moore (Panthers) Week 15: Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel (49ers) Week 16: Josh Reynolds (Lions) Week 17: Stefon Diggs (Bills)
2. Marco Wilson,
Cardinals (Passer Rating Against: 126.0)
* Has lined up on the right side on 495 of his 557 defensive
snaps.
It is far too early to conclude that Wilson is an easy target
after he was thrust into the starting lineup after being drafted
in the fourth round this spring. At this point, all we can say
is that he has the misfortune of being the young guy in a secondary
that is getting solid play from Robert Alford on the outside and
Byron Murphy in the slot. He has been much better in his last
five games (one touchdown surrendered and one game with a passer
rating allowed higher than 90) than he was over his first five
(four TDs, five games with a 100-plus passer rating allowed).
As is the case with most rookies, Wilson will continue to be picked
on until he can make quarterbacks pay for doing so. To this point,
he has recorded only three pass breakups and zero interceptions.
Unlike Moreau above, fantasy managers need to be ready to avoid
him as soon as Wilson begins making more plays. Until then, it
is fine to target this matchup.
* Has lined up on the right side on 517 of his 662 defensive
snaps.
Chicago made the questionable decision to release Desmond Trufant
at the end of August, mostly leaving the team with Day 3 draftees
Vildor and Thomas Graham Jr. to go along with a bunch of college
free agents to work on the perimeter opposite Jaylon Johnson.
Trufant doesn't have much left anymore, but he has shown he can
be capable in spurts in recent years. The result has been about
what should have been expected. Vildor has allowed quarterbacks
to generate a passer rating of at least 107.4 in his coverage
in all but two games. He has surprisingly only given up four touchdowns
but the yardage he has allowed is the primary reason why he has
the dubious distinction of being the most delicious matchup in
the league at the moment. While others on this list have surrendered
more yards - Lattimore is at 655 and Breeland is at 560 - Vildor
(526 yards) has yet to pick off a pass. Furthermore, PFF has graded
his coverage in the 20s twice and lower than 60 six times. The
Bears have little choice but to continue trotting him out there.
Moreover, because Johnson rarely leaves the right side, offenses
will have the opportunity to attack Vildor with their top receiver
as often as they want.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
