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Defensive Weak Spots - AFC & NFC West


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 6/26/21 |


THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANTASY ANALYSTS DO NOT CONSIDER DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS WHEN CREATING PROJECTIONS.

Sometime between the end of the preseason and the first week of the season, fantasy owners and analysts alike shift gears from not caring one iota to what their players' matchups look like to making it their primary consideration when setting about 70 percent of their lineup. A tough three- or four-game stretch for a player at the beginning of the season or end of it shouldn't surprise fantasy analysts, yet most of them are.

Defense may not matter as much as it used to, but let's not pretend as if it does not matter at all. Not accounting for it on some level suggests a belief that NFL games are like seven-on-seven drills. I realized as early as 2004 that I didn't like the idea of my players having to face the Ravens or the Steelers, especially during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach has evolved quite a bit from that initial premise, but I think my track record of success speaks for itself (finishing in the black in each of the 20-plus seasons I've played fantasy football) and suggests there is substantial value in putting a fair amount of weight into "the matchup." The key is giving potential matchups the proper amount of weight to a player's evaluation. By itself, it will not transform an RB3 into an every-week RB1 or turn a perennial WR1 into a bench option, but it is helpful for fantasy owners trying to find values.

That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses operating out of sub-packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) almost 70 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to take a look at what each team will probably look like in base and sub-package personnel. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how each veteran defensive player who will be in those packages in 2021 graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites like Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football Reference, we can do that.

Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as spotting a player with a weakness and exploiting that shortcoming repeatedly. An important part of coaching in any sport is the ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses, so players either will get help from the scheme or benched if they continue to struggle. Nevertheless, the goal of any good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft" side of a run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking ability of the offensive line). It is also important to understand that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every play, so we are playing odds and not dealing with virtual certainties (i.e. shadow cornerbacks usually only "shadow" about 50-60 percent of the time).

Let's get to some fundamental points about Preseason Matchup Analysis before we start:

1) My color-coding system has never been about last year's results or last year's "strength of schedule." My PMA color-coding has always been predictive, not reactive;

2) The color-coding in this four-part series is based on last year only because we have no information about this season. Last year's color codes help set the stage for this year. Film analysis and advanced analytics help us predict what may happen.

3) Base defense is typically deployed on likely running downs, so the content below for "Base" will be primarily how front-seven defenders stack up against the run. Similarly, sub-packages focus on slowing down passing games, so my thoughts for that area will focus primarily on coverage players.

Note: Try not to get too caught up in 4-3 or 3-4 (or even the base defense, for that matter.) Defenses rarely ever line up in a standard package anymore and most of them use "multiple" fronts at that. There are "over" and "under" concepts in the front seven, for example. In the secondary, teams are engaging in traditional man or zone coverages as well as man match and zone match coverages. Those concepts are just the tip of the iceberg. Fantasy managers also need to get over the thinking that the opponent's best cover corner mostly lines up opposite the offense's top receiver.

The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount of subjectivity that goes into my color-coding when I analyze matchups in advance of the Big Board. It is my hope this process will reduce a lot of that and give my readers a look under the hood, so to speak.

Key:

SHAD - A CB that shadowed receivers in roughly half of the team's games last year and/or is likely to do so (again) this season.
Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that particular discipline per PFF (100 point scale)
White box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9 in that particular discipline
Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9 in that particular discipline
Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that particular discipline

Italic (player name) - Rookie
Bold print (player name) - Over 30 years of age or will turn 30 by the start of the season

Grades - Pass rush (PR), coverage (Cov) and run defense (RD)
Catch % - Catch percentage allowed in player's coverage
Percentages (left, right, etc.) - How often a defensive back lined up at left or right cornerback or in the slot. For safeties, time at free safety or in the box is included to provide insight as to how often he is asked to help against the run as opposed to how often he plays center field.

AFC West

Denver

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 130.0 (25th)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 4.8 (29th)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 237.9 (16th)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 6.3 (T-13th)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Shelby Harris
NT Mike Purcell
DE Dre'Mont Jones
OLB Von Miller*
ILB Alexander Johnson 74.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 1.0% 89.0%
ILB Josey Jewell 75.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 0.7% 81.4%
OLB Bradley Chubb 75.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 1.1%
LCB Ronald Darby 54.3% 82.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.0% 13.1%
RCB Kyle Fuller 55.3% 84.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.1% 7.7%
S Kareem Jackson 73.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 57.7% 25.6%
S Justin Simmons 76.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 56.9% 29.3%

* - 2019 grades


Base: This is another case where PFF's grades fail to line up with the overall (lack of) success of a unit. To be fair, however, injuries did ravage this defense. Purcell reverted to being just an above-average run defender in 2020 after an elite 2019 campaign in that area. That is not a surprising revelation considering Miller was not around to strike fear into opponents. Harris is one of the better defensive linemen flying under the radar in the league and should benefit from a healthy Miller as well. Jones appears to be following down the same path as Harris, making it possible Denver is destined to turn around last year's fortunes against the run.

Johnson and Jewell may well be the weakest parts of this defense, although that is more of a nod to the talent on this defense and less of a knock on them. Either way, if Purcell has another 2019 season left in him, the Broncos should experience a dramatic improvement against the run.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Von Miller*
DT Shelby Harris
DT Dre'Mont Jones
DE Bradley Chubb
LB Alexander Johnson 74.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 1.0% 89.0%
LB Josey Jewell 75.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 0.7% 81.4%
LCB Ronald Darby 54.3% 82.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.0% 13.1%
RCB Kyle Fuller 55.3% 84.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.1% 7.7%
S Kareem Jackson 73.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 57.7% 25.6%
S Justin Simmons 76.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 56.9% 29.3%
NB Bryce Callahan 53.8% 34.0% 28.4% 28.7% 0.3% 8.5%
Dime Patrick Surtain II

* - 2019 grades

Sub: Fangio's defenses tend to focus more on excelling in coverage than stopping the run, and that belief was pounded home again with the selection of Surtain this spring. One year after being rocked by injuries to the secondary, the Broncos may have the deepest group of quality cornerbacks in the league. Fuller is familiar with Fangio from their days together in Chicago and should open the season as the top corner on this defense. Darby joins the team after a surprisingly great year with Washington. Surtain may not open the season as a starter, but he will almost certainly overtake Darby at some point along the way. Even if Darby somehow holds him off all year, good luck trying to find a better third or fourth corner than Surtain in the league. When Callahan has been healthy, he has been one of the league's best slot defenders.

Although Simmons got beat for seven touchdowns in 2020 after giving up eight over his first four seasons combined, he made opponents nearly as often with a career-high five interceptions and is still one of the best safeties in the business. Jackson is a former corner who has been mostly exceptional in coverage - even more so than Simmons. As well as all of these players graded out last season, this pass defense could become the best unit in the NFL if Miller and Chubb stay on the field. While the Broncos may not have an elite corner or safety per se, there is so much high-end talent in the defensive backfield that Denver should be considered a negative matchup for all but the most elite receivers in 2021.

Kansas City

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 122.1 (21st)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 4.5 (T-16th)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 236.2 (14th)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 6.4 (T-16th)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Frank Clark
DT Chris Jones
DT Derrick Nnadi
DE Taco Charlton
OLB Nick Bolton
MLB Anthony Hitchens 78.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
OLB Willie Gay Jr. 77.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9%
LCB Charvarius Ward 52.8% 81.1% 2.3% 2.6% 0.4% 8.7%
RCB L'Jarius Sneed 62.2% 27.6% 12.4% 41.7% 0.2% 13.9%
S Tyrann Mathieu 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 37.2% 24.2% 32.0%
S Juan Thornhill 70.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 58.3% 22.1%

Base: Regardless of whether or not Jarran Reed is a three-down player this year, his arrival gives this defensive line some quality interior depth that it lacked in 2020. Nnadi gets the nod here over Reed and Tershawn Wharton on early downs because of his obvious run-stopping ability, but Reed will easily play more snaps than the other two if he stays healthy because opponents will be chasing points against the Chiefs most weeks. Jones may not be quite as good stopping in the run as he is rushing the passer, but he is also no slouch either.

The one thing this defense cannot have outside of an injury to Jones is losing Clark for any length of time. He is the one Chiefs defender outside of Jones capable of striking fear into offensive linemen, and his off-field problems have to be concerning for the Chiefs. Bolton should provide an immediate boost in the run game. Gay graded out reasonably well for a rookie against the run, but he only played about 15 snaps/game. Hitchens is known more for his coverage abilities than run-stopping exploits. Any improvement this defense makes against the run figures to be a product of the depth they have now at defensive tackle. As such, fantasy owners can expect a modest improvement against the run.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Frank Clark
DT Jarran Reed
DT Tershawn Wharton
DE Chris Jones
LB Anthony Hitchens 78.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 94.4%
LB Willie Gay Jr. 77.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 84.4%
LCB Charvarius Ward 52.8% 81.1% 2.3% 2.6% 0.4% 8.7%
RCB L'Jarius Sneed 62.2% 27.6% 12.4% 41.7% 0.2% 13.9%
S Daniel Sorensen 76.3% 2.8% 2.5% 14.8% 22.2% 44.5%
S Juan Thornhill 70.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 58.3% 22.1%
NB Tyrann Mathieu 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 37.2% 24.2% 32.0%
Dime Rashad Fenton 58.3% 12.3% 36.1% 40.2% 0.0% 10.2%

Sub: Kansas City has done an exceptional job finding starting corners at a minimal cost. Sneed is a 2020 fourth-round pick that played about as well as any rookie corner did last season. Ward is a former undrafted free agent who has been a respectable cover man in his two-plus seasons with the team. He is the "softer" matchup of the two but that's not to say he is a plus-matchup either. Fenton was part of Kansas City's revolving door approach at slot corner and figures to see plenty of work when DC Steve Spagnuolo prefers to keep Mathieu in center field. Mike Hughes is a former first-round pick of the Vikings who just hasn't been able to stay on the field. If he can finally stay healthy, he could push Ward for a starting job.

Thornhill took a bit of a step back in 2020, although it is fair to wonder if his late 2019 ACL tear played a role in that. Before the injury, he was starting to make an impression as a safety with significant range. As their usage above suggests, Mathieu and Sorensen are more "defensive weapons" than true safeties. Mathieu played in the slot more often than any other Chief in 2020 but proved to be a bit less of a sure thing in coverage than in recent years despite a career-high six interceptions. Sorensen is more of a box safety with safety and slot corner capabilities, although he is at his best in a part-time role. So, much like the run defense, expect much of the same this year. The biggest difference is quality depth at each level, meaning the defense should be able to avoid a total collapse if key injuries strike early.

Las Vegas

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 125.8 (23rd)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 4.6 (22nd)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 263.3 (27th)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 7.0 (27th)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Yannick Ngakoue
DT Johnathan Hankins
DT Quinton Jefferson
DE Clelin Ferrell
OLB Cory Littleton 75.7% 1.4% 1.5% 11.2% 0.1% 76.4%
MLB Nick Kwiatkoski 71.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.2% 91.2%
OLB Nicholas Morrow 67.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 1.2% 79.4%
LCB Trayvon Mullen 63.5% 85.7% 0.3% 4.6% 0.0% 5.6%
RCB Casey Hayward 48.0% 65.1% 24.4% 0.8% 0.0% 5.3%
SS Johnathan Abram 67.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 43.5% 33.8%
FS Trevon Moehrig

Base: TWhile mass does not mean everything up front, Hankins (340 pounds) is about the only defensive lineman poised for significant playing time that has some of it. The rest of the defense has been built to slow down passing games, which obviously does not bode well for Las Vegas improving on last year's run defense marks. The 267-pound Ferrell was drafted No. 4 overall in 2019 and took a bit of a step forward across the board last year, but he may need to move inside on passing downs to make room for the team's best pass rushers (Ngakoue and Crosby). Ngakoue's contract will keep him on the field for all three downs, but his 246-pound frame tends to make him a bit of a liability stopping the run.

Jefferson was good against the run toward the end of his stay in Seattle but graded out poorly in that area last year with Buffalo, which likely contributed to his release from the Bills. As their grades suggest, Littleton, Kwiatkoski and Morrow are better in coverage than against the run. Sadly, Littleton's play was dreadful in both areas in 2020 after a banner 2019 campaign. New DC Gus Bradley is not known for being overly aggressive either. Put it all together and Las Vegas looks ripe for the picking against opposing rushing attacks again.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Yannick Ngakoue
DT Johnathan Hankins
DT Clelin Ferrell
DE Maxx Crosby
LB Nick Kwiatkoski 71.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.2% 91.2%
LB Cory Littleton 75.7% 1.4% 1.5% 11.2% 0.1% 76.4%
LCB Trayvon Mullen 63.5% 85.7% 0.3% 4.6% 0.0% 5.6%
RCB Casey Hayward 48.0% 65.1% 24.4% 0.8% 0.0% 5.3%
SS Johnathan Abram 67.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 43.5% 33.8%
FS Trevon Moehrig
NB Nevin Lawson 69.8% 8.1% 63.1% 21.0% 0.0% 5.4%
Dime Damon Arnette 0.3% 89.2% 4.4% 0.0% 5.0%

Sub: The Raiders probably will not be significantly better against the pass in 2021, but there is reason to expect a modest improvement. Littleton and Kwiatkoski have strong reputations for being good in coverage. Hayward should be a noticeable upgrade over Arnette, who appeared overmatched at times as a rookie, even though he isn't the stalwart he once was. Lawson played more snaps in the slot than any other Raider last season and has reportedly impressed Bradley so far during offseason practices.

Moehrig was arguably the best safety prospect in the draft this spring and should emerge as a long-term answer in center field, even if he is picked on as a rookie this fall. Abram was terrible in coverage last season, which was effectively his rookie season since he missed all but one game in 2019. Considering Abram has graded out decently against the run so far in his career and loves laying the wood to ball carriers, perhaps Bradley will leave him in the box more often. All told, the Raiders should be a plus-matchup for receivers and tight ends - maybe not so much for running backs - unless Hayward can turn back the clock.

LA Chargers

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 119.8 (18th)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 4.5 (T-16th)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 223.6 (ninth)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 6.3 (T-13th)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Joey Bosa
DT Linval Joseph
DT Justin Jones
DE Jerry Tillery
OLB Uchenna Nwosu 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 7.0%
MLB Kenneth Murray 86.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.9% 83.5%
OLB Kyler Fackrell 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.5%
LCB Asante Samuel Jr.
RCB Michael Davis 60.9% 21.3% 63.9% 1.9% 0.2% 9.8%
SS Derwin James* 93.3% 2.0% 0.3% 20.1% 4.3% 49.5%
FS Nasir Adderley 77.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 90.3% 7.0%

* - 2019 grades

Base: It doesn't get much better than Bosa at one defensive end spot. Entering his age-26 season, Bosa may have another two or three elite seasons left in him. Joseph was added last season to stuff the run and continued to do that reasonably well. However, Jones is clearly the second-best lineman on the team now after breaking out in 2020. Melvin Ingram declined steadily against the run over his final two seasons with the Chargers and apparently will not return to the team. While it is likely Los Angeles can find a viable replacement for him on early downs, that "viable replacement" on passing downs is not currently on the roster.

Tillery has looked nothing like the versatile disruptor he was in college as a pro and will again be a player opponents target in the running game. Nwosu (251 pounds) is a bit undersized to play defensive end full-time or else the Chargers may have already moved on from Tillery. The biggest improvement Los Angeles can make against the run rests on the shoulders of Murray and the health of James. Like many rookies last season, Murray had an up-and-down year. If a full offseason allows him to display the kind of tenacity he showed while at Oklahoma, then the efforts of Bosa, Joseph and Jones against the run may not be wasted. If James can simply stay on the field, the Chargers could push for a top-10 finish in run defense.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Joey Bosa
DT Linval Joseph
DT Justin Jones
DE Uchenna Nwosu
LB Kenneth Murray 86.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.9% 83.5%
LB Kyzir White 78.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.9% 79.9%
LCB Asante Samuel Jr.
RCB Michael Davis 60.9% 21.3% 63.9% 1.9% 0.2% 9.8%
SS Derwin James* 93.3% 2.0% 0.3% 20.1% 4.3% 49.5%
FS Nasir Adderley 77.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 90.3% 7.0%
NB Chris Harris 71.1% 4.8% 7.6% 71.7% 1.1% 12.9%
Dime Tevaughn Campbell 64.5% 27.6% 21.8% 41.1% 0.0% 8.0%

* - 2019 grades

Sub: Two reasons new HC Brandon Staley's defense worked so well for the Rams were Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Staley has a foundation piece up front now with Bosa, but he doesn't have a Ramsey clone yet. What he has are some potentially nice pieces in Samuel and James. With Harris looking as if he is in decline, the Chargers would be thrilled if Samuel quickly turns into the kind of corner his father was and nails down a starting spot. James has played just five games since his wonderful rookie season in 2018. It should come as no shock if Staley uses him in the same way he did John Johnson with the Rams - part linebacker, party deep safety and part slot man. If James can avoid yet another devastating injury, Staley will make sure he is a nightmare for offenses.

Adderley's struggles to this point of his pro career are somewhat surprising, but one would think the upgrade from Gus Bradley to Staley might just be what the doctor ordered for his career. Davis was the best cornerback on the roster last year and should benefit from the coaching change as well. After all, Darious Williams went from an afterthought during his short stay in Baltimore to a worthy sidekick to Ramsey. Staley may not be a miracle worker, but he will almost certainly be more creative with his play calls than Bradley ever was during his stint with the Chargers. Along with the health of James, the change from Bradley to Staley may be all it takes for the Chargers to become a top-10 defense.

NFC West

Arizona

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 104.8 (sixth)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 4.4 (T-14th)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 293.6 (32nd)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 7.2 (29th)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE J.J. Watt
NT Leki Fotu
DE Zach Allen
OLB Chandler Jones
ILB Isaiah Simmons 71.4% 2.1% 1.9% 18.9% 2.1% 51.3%
ILB Zaven Collins
OLB Markus Golden
LCB Byron Murphy 69.5% 2.6% 18.7% 71.9% 0.5% 5.0%
RCB Malcolm Butler 62.9% 15.8% 73.0% 4.9% 0.1% 5.5%
S Budda Baker 68.6% 1.2% 1.1% 12.7% 44.1% 36.6%
S Deionte Thompson 50.0% 2.4% 1.2% 9.3% 57.8% 28.3%

Base: When Watt has played something resembling a full season in his career, he has never earned a run defense grade lower than 79.3. The last Arizona defensive lineman to do hit that mark in any year was Calais Campbell in 2016. His presence is a huge boon to the run defense as well as the pass rush. Allen should benefit as a result, but it may not matter if Fotu or Jordan Phillips struggle to hold their ground in the middle of the line for a second straight season.

Jones (biceps) and Golden were average at best against the run, but as has been noted several times already in this series, it is rare to see a 3-4 OLB grade well against the run since their primary focus is usually rushing the passer. Simmons and Collins figured to benefit the most from Watt's presence against the run. Arizona's last two first-round picks arguably form the most athletic inside linebacker duo in the league, so getting that extra lineman tied up with Watt instead of trying to track them down should go a long way toward making the rush defense even better.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Chandler Jones
DT J.J. Watt
DT Jordan Phillips
DE Markus Golden
LB Isaiah Simmons 71.4% 2.1% 1.9% 18.9% 2.1% 51.3%
LB Zaven Collins
LCB Byron Murphy 69.5% 2.6% 18.7% 71.9% 0.5% 5.0%
RCB Malcolm Butler 62.9% 15.8% 73.0% 4.9% 0.1% 5.5%
S Budda Baker 68.6% 1.2% 1.1% 12.7% 44.1% 36.6%
S Deionte Thompson 50.0% 2.4% 1.2% 9.3% 57.8% 28.3%
NB Darqueze Dennard 64.2% 23.0% 40.3% 26.7% 0.5% 8.9%
Dime Marco Wilson

Sub: Simmons and Collins' biggest contribution will undoubtedly be what they do in the passing game. Both players have the speed and size to hang with the most athletic tight ends in the league, even if Simmons didn't always show that as a rookie. Collins was a very good blitzer in college, which leaves DC Vance Joseph with plenty of ways to get creative with his pressure packages. Baker has been a stud on this defense from almost the time he became a full-time player halfway through his rookie season in 2017, but that is about where the good news ends for this pass defense.

Even though Patrick Peterson is no longer in his prime, he was easily the best cornerback on the roster. His departure to the Vikings leaves the 31-year-old Butler and Murphy as the top corners. Murphy was significantly better in 2020 than he was as a rookie one year earlier but will need to take another similar leap forward before the team can feel rest easy about Peterson's departure. Dennard has struggled to stay healthy recently and is on his third team in three years as a result. He was mostly inconsistent last season with the Falcons, and it is fair to wonder if he'll be trusted to be anything more than a third corner in Arizona. Thompson has graded out as a middle-of-the-road safety through two seasons in part-time duty, so it is easy to believe he will be further exposed if forced into more of a full-time role.

LA Rams

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 91.3 (third)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 3.8 (third)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 190.7 (first)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 5.1 (first)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Aaron Donald
NT Sebastian Joseph-Day
DE A'Shawn Robinson
OLB Leonard Floyd 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 1.9%
ILB Troy Reeder 85.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 92.9%
ILB Micah Kiser 67.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 92.7%
OLB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.6%
SHAD Jalen Ramsey 50.0% 34.4% 39.5% 17.7% 0.3% 6.7%
CB Darious Williams 50.0% 55.5% 39.1% 0.1% 0.1% 5.2%
S Jordan Fuller 74.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 63.6% 23.7%
S Taylor Rapp 81.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 51.5% 26.8%

Base: Every game plan begins with trying to neutralize Donald. Virtually all of them have failed. He is the engine that drives this defense. As long as he is in his prime, the Rams will probably be a top-five defense. Robinson has a terrible year in 2020, and it would appear that he knows it based on how much he trimmed down this offseason. He will need to be up to the challenge of replacing Michael Brockers because there is not a ton of quality depth up front. While Joseph-Day undoubtedly benefited from playing next to Donald, his second-year breakout was not a fluke. He will not be the second coming of Ndamukong Suh in this defense, but he doesn't need to be either. As long as he can hold the point and maintain the same two-gap discipline he showed last year, he should consistently grade out well for the foreseeable future.

Things get a bit murkier at linebacker, however. How many of Brandon Staley's defensive concepts will new HC Raheem Morris keep? Last year, the Rams used a single linebacker on about 46 percent of their defensive snaps and two linebackers on 47 percent of the snaps. Under Staley, Los Angeles used creative solutions such as Mint and Tite Fronts that have become popular in the college game. Both concepts featured one linebacker (Floyd) - an edge player as opposed to a coverage backer in the Rams' case - and took advantage of the team's depth at cornerback and safety. Thus, Los Angeles is only masquerading as a 3-4 defense. The inside linebackers (Reeder and Kiser) rarely ever played together - injuries contributed to that - but it seems reasonable to believe both will be part-time players in 2021 if Morris keeps things as they are.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Aaron Donald
DT Sebastian Joseph-Day
DT A'Shawn Robinson
DE Leonard Floyd
LB Troy Reeder 85.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 92.9%
LB Micah Kiser 67.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 92.7%
SHAD Jalen Ramsey 50.0% 34.4% 39.5% 17.7% 0.3% 6.7%
CB Darious Williams 50.0% 55.5% 39.1% 0.1% 0.1% 5.2%
S Jordan Fuller 74.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 63.6% 23.7%
S Taylor Rapp 81.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 51.5% 26.8%
NB Kareem Orr 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.8% 0.0% 2.2%
Dime David Long 71.4% 66.4% 19.0% 6.9% 0.0% 7.8%

Sub: Perhaps the most interesting question that needs an answer is if Morris will keep Ramsey in the "star" position he held under Staley, who tasked the stud cornerback with the responsibility of shutting down the opposition's top threat. Those responsibilities could change on a play-by-play basis (receiver on one play, a tight end on the next, etc.) and Ramsey handled them exceptionally. Williams flourished in a full-time role and finished as a top-12 cover corner per PFF. While Ramsey will not always shadow and Williams will not always guard the other team's second receiver, the latter proved he is a dangerous playmaker in his own right (59.9 passer rating allowed).

The Rams took a committee approach guarding the slot, as Ramsey led the way with 169 snaps there and LB Kenny Young finished second (118). Orr played 45 of his 46 snaps in the slot with the Titans last year, so he gets the nod above. Look for the primary slot defender to be targeted early and often regardless of who ends up with the job. Los Angeles took a big hit when John Johnson left for the Browns, and it is not exactly clear who will replace him since Fuller and Rapp were fighting for the same job opposite Johnson in 2020. The most likely answer both will start and share those duties.

San Francisco

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 106.4 (seventh)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 4.0 (T-sixth)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 207.9 (fourth)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 5.9 (T-sixth)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Nick Bosa
DT Javon Kinlaw
DT Zach Kerr
DE Arik Armstead
OLB Dre Greenlaw 84.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 80.7%
MLB Fred Warner 72.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.2% 89.3%
OLB Samson Ebukam 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
LCB Dontae Johnson 66.7% 21.2% 19.0% 43.2% 1.5% 13.2%
RCB Jason Verrett 68.3% 24.0% 67.9% 0.6% 0.0% 5.6%
S Jimmie Ward 73.3v 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 47.5% 24.0%
S Jaquiski Tartt 70.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 42.5% 36.4%

Base: Injuries wrecked several defenses across the league. San Francisco was easily one of the hardest-hit teams in that regard. Bosa (14 missed games), Richard Sherman (11), Tartt (nine), Dee Ford (15) and a host of reserves were unable to go for large parts of the season, while Kinlaw was thrust into an impossible situation in which he basically had to replace DeForest Buckner as a rookie with no offseason. If ever a team deserved a pass for the amount of red on its grade chart, it would probably be the 49ers. While Kinlaw will likely scare more quarterbacks than running backs as he develops over the next year or two, there is almost no chance he comes close to repeating his 46.9 run defense grade in 2020.

Armstead just missed finishing in the green against the run last year, while Bosa has established himself as one of the better defensive all-around ends in the league. Kerr has consistently stuffed the run over the last four seasons. While it helps that he is so typically well protected by his defensive line, Warner has emerged as a top-five linebacker in the league and is yet another reason San Francisco should stuff the run even better than it did in 2020. Greenlaw was unable to build on a solid 2019 but is far from a weak link. The other linebacker job might end up being a battle between Azeez Al-Shaair and Ebukan. The 49ers ran two-linebacker packages on about two-thirds of their defensive snaps last year, so the winner of the aforementioned battle will be a part-time player and not overly relevant to this discussion.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Nick Bosa
DT Javon Kinlaw
DT Zach Kerr
DE Arik Armstead
LB Fred Warner 72.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.2% 89.3%
LB Dre Greenlaw 84.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 80.7%
LCB Dontae Johnson 66.7% 21.2% 19.0% 43.2% 1.5% 13.2%
RCB Jason Verrett 68.3% 24.0% 67.9% 0.6% 0.0% 5.6%
S Jimmie Ward 73.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 47.5% 24.0%
S Jaquiski Tartt 70.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 42.5% 36.4%
NB K'Waun Williams 69.2% 0.0% 0.0% 89.8% 0.0% 5.3%
Dime Emmanuel Moseley 60.0% 34.7% 38.5% 10.6% 0.0% 15.6%

Sub: As good as Warner is, he excels in coverage. (It's not a coincidence running backs tallied only 73 catches against San Francisco last year, nor is it a coincidence the 49ers were the worst fantasy matchup for tight ends.) To this point of the offseason, Sherman has yet to decide on where he will play. Assuming it is not San Francisco, his absence is a big deal for new DC Demeco Ryans. Verrett stayed healthy for the most part last year and lived up to the promise he flashed on the rare occasion he wasn't hurt earlier in his career, but San Francisco could be in big trouble if he misses significant time again and Sherman doesn't come back. Williams didn't play up to his 2019 level in the slot last year, but he's been good enough there for long enough that quarterbacks won't go out of their way to target him too often.

Johnson and Moseley seem like they have been battling for the other starting job opposite Sherman with the 49ers for some time. While both have shown some promise, neither one has nailed down the job long-term - making the left cornerback slot a likely target for quarterbacks. Ward appears to have moved past the injury woes that dogged him for the better part of his first five pro seasons; he is another key reason why tight ends did not do particularly well against the Niners last year. Tartt is somewhat exploitable in coverage, but he has rarely been healthy enough for long enough to make a final determination on him.

Seattle

2020 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game: 95.6 (fifth)
Yards Allowed/Carry: 3.9 (T-fourth)

2020 Passing Yards Allowed/Game: 285.0 (31st)
Net Yards Allowed/Attempt: 6.3 (T-13th)

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Carlos Dunlap
DT Poona Ford
DT Al Woods*
DE Kerry Hyder
OLB Jordyn Brooks 70.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 83.7%
MLB Bobby Wagner 73.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 2.0% 90.2%
OLB Cody Barton 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 89.6%
LCB Ahkello Witherspoon 57.1% 57.5% 30.2% 0.9% 0.0% 10.8%
RCB Tre Flowers 75.5% 0.2% 90.3% 2.4% 0.3% 5.2%
SS Jamal Adams 80.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 19.0% 44.8%
FS Quandre Diggs 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 88.6% 6.7%

* - 2019 with Jaguars

Base: Theoretically, the Seahawks should be even stouter against the run than they were last season with a long-time solid run-stuffer in Woods replacing Jarran Reed. Ford (5-11, 310) has just the kind of fire hydrant build many coaches want in their defensive tackles because he is so hard to get leverage on and move off his spot. Hyder holds up better against the run than Dunlap, but both men are paid more for their ability to put heat on the quarterback. They are the best pair of bookend defensive ends Seattle has employed in some time.

Wagner continues to play at a level that may warrant him a permanent spot in Canton one day, although his coverage grade has fallen off a bit in recent years. Brooks really struggled in coverage despite standing out in that area in college (coverage grade of 29.8 in 2020), but his run defense grade was more than acceptable for a rookie (68.6). Seattle has yet to decide on K.J. Wright, likely leaving the team with a choice between Ben Burr-Kirven (11 snaps in 2020) or Barton (54.5 run defense grade). The winner of that battle figures to be the weakest link of the base defense by a wide margin.

Pos Player PR
Grade
Cov
Grade
RD
Grade
Catch
%
Left
%
Right
%
Slot
%
FS
%
Box
%
DE Carlos Dunlap
DT Robert Nkemdiche*
DT Kerry Hyder
DE Aldon Smith
LB Bobby Wagner 73.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 2.0% 90.2%
LB Jordyn Brooks 70.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 83.7%
LCB Ahkello Witherspoon 57.1% 57.5% 30.2% 0.9% 0.0% 10.8%
RCB D.J. Reed Jr. 63.6% 20.9% 49.5% 17.7% 0.0% 11.1%
SS Jamal Adams 80.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 19.0% 44.8%
FS Quandre Diggs 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 88.6% 6.7%
NB Ugo Amadi 75.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.6% 2.5% 8.5%
Dime Tre Flowers 75.5% 0.2% 90.3% 2.4% 0.3% 5.2%

* - Played 16 total snaps in 2019, did not play in 2020

Sub: Shaquill Griffin's departure was a blow to this secondary. The signing of Smith could minimize the impact if he can stay on the field though as a third capable pass-rusher. Witherspoon played well for the most part when he was on the field in 2020, but 11 missed games in the last two seasons are cause for concern. Reed stepped into the starting lineup around midseason for an injured Flowers and played so well that he kept the job when Flowers returned for the playoffs. Reed's solid play was at least a small part of the defensive turnaround the Seahawks enjoyed over the final two months. Amadi appears to have a solid grasp on the slot job, but he will undoubtedly be the most targeted cornerback on the field for Seattle if Witherspoon and Reed play to the level they did a year ago.

The Seahawks have shown patience with Flowers in his long-term transition from college safety to cornerback, but the selection of Tre Brown this spring may be a hint the team is on the verge of moving on. Adams is the new breed of safety in the NFL - part linebacker, part safety and occasional slot defender. His 9.5 sacks last year is an NFL record for a defensive back and should indicate to casual observers just how many areas of the field he affects. Diggs was a Pro Bowler last year - mostly on the strength of his five interceptions - but he appears to have settled in as a slightly above-average center fielder. There is a chance for him to change that perception, however, as this offseason will be his first with Seattle (traded during the season in 2019 combined with last year's unusual offseason).


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.