High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Russell Wilson Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Marcus Mariota
Best Scheme Fit: The combination
of his rushing ability, accuracy and arm strength would play particularly
well in a Shanahan-Kubiak kind of offense and give him a chance
to use his athleticism while minimizing his current shortcomings.
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 41.5
* - How well does his skill set carry over to the fantasy
game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a realistic threat
for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards to be a candidate
for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also
a part of the equation.
Positives
Fields' unofficial 40 time at his pro day suggests he could be
Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III clone, but the tape tells a
different story. While he made plenty of plays with his legs and
has a big arm like they do, he was much more of a pocket passer
with dual-threat capabilities in college than a one-read-and-go
quarterback. He has immense game-breaking ability, but Ohio State
didn’t need him to show it every week for a multitude of reasons.
Even though the Buckeyes did take their fair share of deep shots
and used Fields on designed runs, the offense as a whole was more
conservative than not a lot of times (only 32 pass attempts of more
than 20 yards in 2020, per Pro Football Focus) - a big reason for
his 68.4 completion percentage over two years in Columbus - and
mostly quarterback-friendly. But while the scheme and his supporting
cast made things easy for him on several occasions, there are also
plenty of times he showed impressive poise and/or patience to work
his way through a progression. What's more is that ability comes
in the same package as a quarterback who is a threat for a big run
on any play. Furthermore, he values the football: PFF charted with
only 18 turnover-worthy plays in his college career.
Negatives
Fields' reaction against the blitz and internal clock aren't as
finely tuned as they should be or at least more inconsistent than
a talent evaluator would prefer. They are several examples of him
either not seeing or bypassing a high percentage throw for a much
riskier one downfield. It partially explains why he threw six of
his nine interceptions came in the five conference championship
or College Football Playoff games he played in (more talented defenses,
less ability to tip off defenders). There are also several examples
of him identifying a blitzer and/or not feeling a defender come
free until it was too late. It helps to explain why he took 52 sacks
in 22 games with the Buckeyes. In his defense, the OSU offense
relied heavily on option routes, which means Fields was often waiting
for his receiver to decide how he was going to attack the coverage
(and therefore what route he would run) before Fields could make
his decision to throw. It partially explains why there are
also so many examples of him locking onto his primary target when
there are just as many examples of him finding a second, third or
even fourth receiver in his progression. Ball security was a problem
in 2019 (nine fumbles, five lost) but not in 2018 or 2020 (three
combined, none lost). And while he showed incredible toughness with
the way he played after the
hit he took in the CFP semifinal game against Clemson this season,
it serves as proof that he needs to do a better job of preserving
himself.
Bottom Line
Is the idea of a prospect slightly less athletic but more developed
as a passer than Jackson or Griffin intriguing? It should be. While
Fields isn’t the most accurate, doesn't possess the most upside
or best arm in this draft class, he doesn't lack in any of those
areas either. What he may be is the best combination of the next
four highest-rated quarterbacks (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac
Jones being the others) after Trevor Lawrence have to offer. Evaluating
Fields is difficult because it is hard to distinguish how often
his hesitation was a product of the aforementioned option routes
or how often it was a matter of slow processing. (That's the kind
of thing coaches and scouts may be able to figure out when they
meet with Fields individually, and rarely the kind of thing outsiders
can say with confidence - no matter what they say.) If it's more
of the latter, the Mariota comp may prove to be very appropriate.
If it's more of the former (I think it is), it's a great sign he'll
be able to hit the ground running in the pros and contribute almost
immediately. Assuming it is the former, the concerns about his decision-making
and/or processing will fade quickly, and he will emerge as one of
the most dangerous dual-threat weapons in the NFL. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
