Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 36.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over to the fantasy
game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a realistic threat
for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards to be a candidate
for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also
a part of the equation.
Positives
Jones has at least four attributes very much working in his favor:
1) anticipation, 2) processing speed, 3) short and intermediate
accuracy and 4) a work ethic and level of intelligence that is becoming
somewhat legendary among talent evaluators. (Here are two examples
of his processing speed: 1:19,
12:10. The ball
leaves his hand with the safety about two yards in front of his
receiver in the first clip, while the second clip shows Jones getting
rid of the ball a split second after the safety breaks on the short
route.) More often than not, Jones hit his receiver in stride and
put the ball in a place where his receiver didn't need to break
stride. As for work ethic and football intelligence, check what
Senior Bowl executive director (and former scout) Jim Nagy had to
say about both. (Start
listening around 13:40.) Such traits tend to drive people crazy
in the weeks leading up to the draft because they are nearly impossible
to quantify. (Let's face it in today's analytics-driven world, a
lot of people don't like it if a stat hasn't been created to measure
it.) Be that as it may, being able to think the game is sometimes
more than half the battle at quarterback. Despite his relative inexperience
(17 career starts and 556 career pass attempts), there's no question
about his football IQ.
Negatives
As noted, Jones' ability to throw the ball on target inside of
about 20 yards and play chess with defenses is not in question.
The problem is the lack of other elite traits (or at least some
that can be developed). For example, there is an alarming number
of underthrown deep balls that ended up being completions cited
above, thanks to the awareness and ability of his receivers. While
part of that is arm strength (his is good but not great), it means
his deep accuracy - and therefore, his overall accuracy - isn't
at the level to which it is being hyped - at least not yet. Making
Jones an even tougher evaluation is the NFL-caliber supporting cast
(high-end pro talent at receiver, running back and the offensive
line) he had in 2020. PFF produced a couple of insightful stats
as it relates to how much "easier" Jones had it in 2020
than Joe Burrow did in 2019: 1) the former threw 44 passes into
tight windows all of last season (versus 124 for Burrow) and 2)
he passed for 600 more yards to "open" receivers than
any other quarterback in the country. Is it a crime that OC Steve
Sarkisian's scheme and his top receivers (DeVonta Smith and Jaylen
Waddle) made things easy for him? Of course not, but it calls into
some question just how important he was to the overall success of
one of the most productive offenses in college football history.
Bottom Line
Senior Bowl practices provided talent evaluators with the first
opportunity to see what Jones could do with lesser talent around
him. (Yes, Alabama's skill-position talent was on par with - if
not better than - a cast of handpicked all-star talent from across
the country.) It was in Mobile (Ala.) that it became clear he is
an exceptionally accurate passer with a sharp mind whose passing
ability should play in just about any offense. Unfortunately, many
NFL teams are placing a higher value on quarterbacks capable of
breaking games open with their legs. Jones is not a statue by any
means, but he isn't going to keep defensive coordinators awake at
night in the same way most of the other projected first-round quarterbacks
in this class will. The lack of special physical attributes should
not keep him from being a productive NFL starter, but he would be
a poor fit in an offense where he is required to throw on the move
or create for himself. Jones has the feel of a player who can (and
probably will) maximize his tools and be a solid long-term starter
in the league, but there are reasons to have some doubt about his
ability to put a team on his back and be the driving force in his
team's quest to win a Lombardi Trophy. In short, it is highly likely
he will consistently need a top-notch supporting cast if he has
any hopes of playing at the same level as the top quarterback prospects
in this draft class. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
