High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Andrew Luck Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Ryan Tannehill
Best Scheme Fit: Universal.
Worked primarily out of a shotgun spread offense that utilized
a lot of play-action and RPOs in college, but his combination
of accuracy, intelligence and athleticism figures to play well
in just about any NFL offense.
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 42.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over to the fantasy
game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a realistic threat
for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards to be a candidate
for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also
a part of the equation.
Positives
Lawrence may have led an offense at Clemson that relied more heavily
on RPOs than any team in the NFL, but his film is littered with
quality pro throws. He is a prospect on the level of Luck and
exceptional - or at least very good - in just about every area
that is meaningful to the quarterback position. Considering all
the other qualities he brings to the table, Lawrence's best attributes
may be his fearlessness and toughness. It's relatively rare for
a quarterback who has long been considered a future No. 1 overall
draft pick to not be at least a little timid when he keeps the
ball on zone-read type of plays. That's not to say he's careless
as a runner - he picks his spots well - but he did take a few
more shots from defenders than evaluators typically like to see
(in part because he had 231 carries in three years). Such a quality
is more of a positive than a negative, however, as coaches would
rather have the option of picking their spots with a quarterback
capable of breaking off chunk runs as opposed to the alternative.
Negatives
Lawrence's film isn't perfect by any stretch - his accuracy in
2020 was a bit more scattershot than one would expect, for example.
His basic efficiency stats such as completion percentage (from
65.2 to 65.8 to 69.2) and yards per completion (8.3 to 9.0 to
9.4) may have improved in each of his three college seasons, but
there's a strong case to be made that he was his best as a freshman
and regressed a bit from there. Clemson appeared to rely more
heavily on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage each season
under Lawrence. (Per Pro Football Focus, 27 percent of his passing
yards in 2020 came via RPOs and screens.) While such a shift could
have easily been made in response to the Tigers' personnel, it
cannot be taken for granted. He also did not react or play particularly
well early against the blitz or Virginia Tech's coverage schemes
early in the 2020 meeting with the Hokies. With that said, let's
not get crazy. Lawrence set such an incredibly high standard as
a freshman that it was going to be nearly impossible for him to
keep raising the bar, especially as key members of his supporting
cast moved onto the NFL (Hunter Renfrow after the 2018 season
and Tee Higgins after the 2019 campaign).
Bottom Line
No prospect has ever entered the league having shown evaluators
everything they need to see to prove his readiness to play the
position at an All-Pro level and no prospect ever will. Clemson's
2020 offense did little to answer what few questions evaluators
had about Lawrence in that regard, but it would still be a shock
if he doesn't hit the ground running in 2021 and one of the bigger
upsets in recent draft history prove if he isn't a top 12 NFL
quarterback in relatively short order. For all the talk of his
athleticism to this point - his rushing floor should be in the
300-yard range for his first few NFL seasons - Lawrence will do
the bulk of his damage from the pocket as a pro. So while he may
not be the dynamic rushing threat in the Lamar Jackson mold or
have the ridiculous arm strength of a Josh Allen, the Georgia
native checks about every box one could hope for in terms of solving
a team's quarterback problem for the next 10-15 years. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
