High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Matthew Stafford Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
A more accurate Jay Cutler
Best Scheme Fit: Play-action,
vertical-based offense to take advantage of his arm strength and
improvisational abilities. A balanced offense may just be what
he needs to reduce his odds of taking unnecessary punishment as
a runner.
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 39.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over to the fantasy
game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a realistic threat
for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards to be a candidate
for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also
a part of the equation.
Positives
Don't make the mistake of looking at Wilson's year-to-year totals
and calling him a one-year wonder. He dedicated himself to his craft
during the spring of 2020 and reaped the rewards of it by improving
in virtually every area of his game. There's no question Wilson
tries to model his game after Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
He possesses plenty of confidence in his ability to throw against
his body, improvises well and uses just almost every imaginable
arm angle when the situation calls for it. Wilson also shows a surprising
amount of touch and is remarkably accurate for a young player with
so much arm strength. (He could do a better job of placing the ball
in spots so his receivers are in a better position to create after
the catch, so it's still an area he needs to improve.) He has a
quick release and isn't shy about pulling the trigger. If it sounds
like he has many of the tools he needs to succeed as an NFL quarterback,
it's because he does.
Negatives
Some have questioned Wilson's viability as a prospect because
BYU didn't play any Power Five schools in 2020 - as a result of
cancellations due to COVID-19 -and couldn't beat Coastal Carolina
late in the season. The Cougars had less than 48 hours to prepare
for a cross-country trip and meeting with the (then-) unbeaten Chanticleers.
A loss to Coastal Carolina isn't what talent evaluators care about
when deciding on his NFL future. He needs to add at least 10-15
pounds of muscle because he will need more protection if he continues
with his current playing style. He is an above-average athlete who
plays more like he believes he is an elite athlete. As a result,
he doesn't do a great job of avoiding contact (1:34,
2:31, 10:20).
He's already had surgery on his right shoulder and right thumb,
so concerns about his durability are legit. For all the experience
he has with throwing into tight windows - a necessary trait at the
next level - he may a bit too keen on the idea of big-play hunting.
It wasn't overly difficult to find a handful of questionable decisions
against the likes of Navy, Troy or Coastal Carolina. Whereas those
opponents didn't always make him pay for his mistakes, NFL defenses
won't be nearly as forgiving.
Bottom Line
The ability for a quarterback to make off-schedule plays is a
necessary part of the job in the NFL. It becomes an issue when that
same player lives on those plays but otherwise struggles to operate
within the framework of the offense. Some parallels exist between
Wilson and Cutler, but it would rather shocking if the former's
NFL career ends up resembling the latter's because he is so much
more accurate. It would behoove his next employer to ease Wilson
into the starting role (i.e. rely heavily on the run game and play-action
early in his career) in order to simplify his reads and avoid putting
him in a position where he believes he needs to force the action
as often as he did as a Cougar. There is some bust potential here,
but a good offensive coach is going to love working with his skill-set
and should be able to eventually mold him into the strong starter
Stafford has been for over a decade if his team makes protecting
him a priority. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
